Hurricane Season runs from June 1-November 30
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000 FXCA62 TJSJ 171953 AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 353 PM AST Wed Apr 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Unstable weather conditions will continue to prevail across the islands until the end of the workweek. Strong showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to continue over portions of central and northern Puerto Rico through late this evening. Therefore, there is the potential for minor flooding, river rises and mudslides due to soil saturation. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday... Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies were observed during the morning hours across much of the region. The cloud coverage began to increase across the Cordillera Central and eastern Puerto Rico by the midday hours. By then, bands of heavy showers started to develop from Maricao to Juana Diaz, and from Guayama to Luquillo. Doppler radar estimated rainfall accumulations between 2 to 3 inches of rain in the central area, whereas the southern slopes received between 1 to 2 inches of rain. Several Flood Advisories (FLS) were sent to these areas, due to minor flooding occurring at the moment and the amount of rain received. In terms of temperatures, the Luis Munoz Marin Int. Airport in San Juan had a maximum temperature of 85 degrees Fahrenheit today. Overall, high temperatures were seen in the upper 70s to low 80s across all the islands. Winds were light to moderate with higher gusts with the heaviest showers. Moderate to heavy showers will continue moving along the Central Cordillera through the afternoon hours. The San Juan metropolitan area and adjacent municipalities may observed showers later in the afternoon towards the evening hours. Rainfall accumulations across these sectors could lead to ponding of water and minor flooding in flood prone areas. By tonight into Thursday the shower activity will slowly diminish across the region. A mid to upper level trough will continue to shift eastward across the region through Thursday. Then, it is expected to linger north of the Leeward islands through the end of the workweek. Therefore, a mass of unstable and moist air will continue to help the development of rainfall activity throughout the area. Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, the island St. Croix received the most rainfall activity. Doppler radar observed up to 3 inches of rain in the southwest corner of the island. The rainfall activity will slowly diminish around sunset. For the rest of the islands, mainly fair weather will continue to persist. However, passing showers cannot be ruled out during the overnight hours. Overnight temperatures will stay in the mid to upper 60s across the higher elevations, and in the low to mid 70s across the coastal and urban areas of the islands. .LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday... .PREV DISCUSSION.../Issued 441 AM AST Apr 17 2024/ Areas of low pressure spread across the central Atlantic basin and developing surface high in the western Atlantic will maintain moderate NE winds through the weekend along with enough water content in a lingering airmass to allow passing showers and afternoon convection to fire up due to diurnal heating and local effects. By Sunday, an area of lower pressure near Florida will assist the lifting of a moist airmass from the eastern Caribbean, raising precipitable water values well above average values. This in combination with a mid to upper-level trough, with the jet max over the region through late Sunday, will allow an increase of passing showers and afternoon convection mainly across western Puerto Rico. Winds begin to strengthen and veer, becoming more easterly to southeasterly Monday to Tuesday, respectively, as the aforementioned surface high moves into the central Atlantic. Due to all of this a wet pattern is expected from Sunday onward with Wednesday containing a best chance for widespread rainfall. && .AVIATION... (18z) SHRA/TSRA are expected to continue across the local area through at least 22z. Periods of reduced VIS and low CIGs are possible. Mtn obs is also persist. Winds will turn light and variable aft 17/22z and return form the NE at 10-15 kts aft 18/14z, with stronger gusts. && .MARINE... A surface ridge over the north-central Atlantic and broad surface trough across the eastern Caribbean will generate moderate to locally fresh east to northeasterly winds through tonight. An upper level trough and induced surface trough will continue to promote inclement weather across the local waters over the next few days, with squally weather and thunderstorms possible at times. A northeasterly swell is forecast to arrive by tomorrow. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CVB LONG TERM....GRS PUBLIC DESK...MRR
