Hurricane Season runs from June 1-November 30
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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)
011 FXCA62 TJSJ 211756 AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 156 PM AST Wed Jan 21 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 116 PM AST Wed Jan 21 2026 * Choppy to rough seas and life-threatening rip currents will result in hazardous conditions for small craft and beachgoers. Small Craft Advisories and High Rip Current Statements will remain in effect through at least Thursday afternoon. * Breezy to windy conditions will continue tonight and tomorrow, which could cause outdoor items to be blown around or damaged. * A surface trough moving westward across the region from early tomorrow into Friday will gradually deteriorate weather conditions, increasing the potential for showers and isolated thunderstorms. && .Short Term(This evening through Friday)... Issued at 116 PM AST Wed Jan 21 2026 Breezy condition prevailed across the islands today, with gusts up to 35 mph reported between eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Quick passing showers left mostly minor rainfall accumulations over land areas through the morning hours, while cloudiness and light showers were developing early in the afternoon over southwestern PR. Maximum temperatures were in the mid-80s in general across the lower elevations. Easterly winds between 15 and 25 mph with stronger gusts will continue during the next few days as a broad surface high pressure continues to build over the central Atlantic. An upper-level trough east of the Leeward Islands will induce a surface trough that will cross the local area on Thursday. This trough will bring a surge in moisture content through the end of the workweek, therefore, expect showers to increase in frequency and intensity from tonight onward. Due to the fast-moving nature of these showers, widespread flooding is not expected, however, expect ponding of water along roads and other poor drainage areas. Although the 500 mb temperatures are expected to drop around -7C, the position of the upper-level trough should not favor thunderstorm development, however, brief isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out over portions of the local waters late in the period. Seasonal temperatures will continue under the breezy winds and occasional trade wind showers. && .Long Term(Saturday through next Wednesday)... Issued at 508 AM AST Wed Jan 21 2026 Increased moisture and instability will carry from the short term period into Saturday, as the moisture field from the disturbance continues over the region promoting above seasonal precipitable water (PWAT) values (1.50 to near 2 inches). Saturday looks to be the wettest day in the long term period, with advective showers steered by easterly flow and convective afternoon showers over interior to western PR. Improved weather conditions are forecast from late Saturday through Sunday as the atmospheric disturbance and moisture field moves westward and out of the region and drier air advects into the area. Patches of drier and moist air will then promote seasonal (
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