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292
FXCA62 TJSJ 030902
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
502 AM AST Wed Dec 3 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 425 AM AST Wed Dec 3 2025

* The north and east-facing beaches in PR and the US Virgin
  Islands have a moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents
  today and through much of the forecast period.

* We have a slight risk of thunderstorms, especially in the
  interior and western PR, this afternoon.

* The US Virgin Islands can expect a slight to moderate chance of
  occasional periods of moderate to heavy rain, with impacts
  limited to ponding of water in roads and poorly drained areas.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Friday)...
Issued at 425 AM AST Wed Dec 3 2025

Calm weather prevailed across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands, with mostly clear skies over land and isolated brief
showers mainly over the surrounding waters. A few of these showers
filtered into eastern Puerto Rico, but they produced little to no
measurable rainfall and resulted in no significant impacts.
Temperatures settled into the 60s over the higher elevations and
the 70s along the coasts, while winds remained light and variable.

From today into Thursday, weather conditions are expected to be
variable. Lingering moisture from a departing surface trough will
allow scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop during
the afternoon hours across interior and western Puerto Rico. Impacts
should be minor, with brief ponding of water on roadways or in
poorly drained urban areas. Therefore, flooding and lightning risks
will be limited or remain low today. On Thursday, an approaching
easterly disturbance may bring an increase in surface to mid-level
moisture, though the deepest plume is likely to stay south of the
islands. Due to this proximity, we anticipate a slightly higher
chance for showers, with the probability of widespread thunderstorms
staying low. Overall, Thursday is still favored to be the most
active day in the short-term period, though impacts should remain
under the limited threshold risk criteria.

By Friday, conditions are likely to become more stable as a mid- to
upper-level ridge builds from the west and displaces the trough
aloft. Drier air and a more suppressed pattern should lead to fewer
showers and lower chances for flooding or other hazards. If current
trends continue, the likelihood of impactful weather by the end of
the week remains significantly low.

&&

.Long Term(Saturday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 425 AM AST Wed Dec 3 2025

The 250-mb heights are at the 75th percentile of the December
climatology, indicating a strong mid- to upper-level ridge. Model
guidance agrees that this ridge will build and persist over the
Northeast Caribbean, leading to a substantial trade wind inversion
and subsidence caused by a denser, drier air mass located
primarily above 850 mb. Additionally, temperatures at 500 mb are
above normal (warmer than normal), also around the 75th
percentile. At the same time, the low-level lapse rates remain
relatively stable, falling below the 25th percentile and even
below -2 standard deviations. These factors indicate a stable
trend that is expected to dominate the local region over the long
term. Based on this information, both threats, the threat for
thunderstorm formation and flooding rain, were assigned to none
for the long-term period.

Under the described weather pattern, there is a likelihood of
having an advective pattern. As a result, there is a high chance
(60-80%) that residents and visitors in Puerto Rico and the US
Virgin Islands can expect pleasant temperatures, with a mix of
sunshine and clouds each day. However, this advective pattern will
also bring a low (10-20%) to moderate (30-50%) chance of
occasional passing showers, leading to brief periods of moderate
to locally heavy rain in portions of the windward areas of Puerto
Rico and the US Virgin Islands. Additionally, there is a low to
moderate chance of afternoon convection developing across the
interior and western parts of Puerto Rico each day; however,
current forecasts do not indicate a flooding threat at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 425 AM AST Wed Dec 3 2025

All TAF sites should experience VFR conditions. Brief periods of
MVFR are possible after 17Z at TJBQ and TJPS due to shower and
thunderstorm activity. Winds will remain between 5 to 13kts from the
E-NE, with occasional higher gusts near any stronger shower activity.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 425 AM AST Wed Dec 3 2025

Winds will become gentle to moderate from the east to southeast as
the surface trough moves westward near the region. Afternoon
thunderstorms will form the next few days due to the proximity of the
trough. A small easterly swell will spread across the local waters
through Thursday, small craft operators should exercise caution
across the offshore Atlantic waters due to seas up to 6 feet.
Additionally, a surface high pressure across the Central Atlantic
will promote the return of the moderate to locally fresh east to
northeast winds the second part of the week.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 425 AM AST Wed Dec 3 2025

A small easterly swell will promote a moderate risk of rip
currents along the north and east facing beaches of Puerto Rico,
including Vieques and Culebra, and across the U.S. Virgin Islands.
These conditions will persist most of the week due to the small
easterly to northeasterly swell and increasing winds from Thursday
onward. A moderate risk means that life-threatening rip currents
are possible and can quickly pull swimmers away from shore.

Even where the risk is lower, rip currents can still form near
groins, jetties, reefs, and piers. Visitors and residents are
strongly encouraged to swim near a lifeguard and remain aware of
changing conditions.

There is a slight risk of thunderstorms, especially during the
afternoon hours, across northwest Puerto Rico. This activity
could move across coastal areas at times, increasing the risk of
lightning strikes.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAM
LONG TERM....MMC
AVIATION...CAM

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion