Hurricane Season runs from June 1-November 30
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000 FXCA62 TJSJ 252010 AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 410 PM AST Thu Apr 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... The ongoing wet and unstable weather conditions are expected to prevail through at least Saturday with limited to elevated risks of flash flooding, urban and river flooding, and landslides mainly over the interior, western, and northern Puerto Rico, as well as the San Juan metro area. A slight improvement on weather condtions is expected by Saturday night into Sunday as drier air filters into the local area. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday... Once again, like in previous days, hazy skies and unstable weather conditions prevailed across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. By the early afternoon hours, showers started to develop along the San Juan metro area, interior, western, and northwestern sections of Puerto Rico. Temperature-wise, they remained in the 80s along the coastal areas, while over the higher elevations, they stayed in the 70s to low 80s. The prevailing wind flow was out of the southwest throughout the day. Overnight, we anticipate an improvement in weather conditions with a decrease in showers as a patch of slightly drier air moves across the area. By Friday into the weekend, we anticipate an increase in low-level moisture as the front over the eastern Dominican Republic moves towards the east, reaching Puerto Rico and eventually the U.S. Virgin Islands. The latest model guidance suggests a mid-level short-wave trough strengthening in the Caribbean, which could lead to deep convective activity, particularly in the afternoons. We encourage citizens to stay informed and monitor our forecast for additional updates, as this will be useful for planning purposes. && .LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday... //from previous discussion// A strong surface high pressure moving off the eastern coast of the united states, is expected to promote moderate to locally fresh northeast winds at the beginning of the long-term period. The latest model guidance have changed, delaying the departure of the moisture from the local area. However, by Sunday remnant moisture from a surface trough and old frontal boundary will be pushed south of the region, improving gradually the local weather. Variable weather conditions are expected from Sunday through Tuesday, with passing showers over the east coast of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Vrigin Islands. Then, followed by afternoon convection across the southwest portions of PR due to the combination of daytime heating and local effects. Precipitable water values will remain between 1.40 to 1.50 inches through Tuesday night. By Wednesday, a patch of very dry air will filter into the region, limiting the potential of shower activity across the islands. However, this fair weather pattern will not last long due to the arrival of a big field of moisture pulled from South America toward the eastern Caribbean region on early Thursday. A wet and unsettled pattern is anticipated with an elevated potential of showers and thunderstorms across the local area. The general wind flow will be from the northeast then veering from the east southeast by Thursday. Daytime temperatures will remain in the mid 80s along the coastal and urban areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, and from the mid to upper 70s across the Cordillera Central. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) SHRA/TSRA will develop through this evening, some may impact JSJ/JBQ thru 25/23z. Therefore, tempo due to MVFR or IFR conds are in place for those sites. Mtn obsc will last through this evening. VCTS/SHRA at TJPS for the most part. However, in general, expc mainly VFR conditions across all terminals through the forecast period. ESE winds at around 15 kt, becoming calm to light and VRB aft 25/23, but will return from the E-ENE aft 26/13z. && .MARINE... A small northwesterly swell will continue to spread across the local waters through Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to affect the local waters for the next few days. Another surface trough will strengthen the easterly winds from today into Friday, before becoming northeast on Saturday under the influence of a surface high pressure moving off the eastern coast of the United States. && .BEACH FORECAST... Breaking waves of around 5 feet will maintain the risk of rip currents generally moderate for the northern beaches of the local islands. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MMC/DSR LONG TERM....GRS AVIATION...CAM MARINE/BEACH FORECAST...MMC PUBLIC DESK...RC/MMC
