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376
FXCA62 TJSJ 020856
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
456 AM AST Sat May 2 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 453 AM AST Sat May 2 2026

* A limited flooding risk will develop across northwestern Puerto
  Rico this afternoon due to localized heavy showers.

* A drying trend will develop through the weekend, promoting
  generally fair weather conditions into early next week, with
  locally induced afternoon showers over western Puerto Rico.

* Warmer-than-normal temperatures will persist, with heat indices
  reaching or exceeding 100F across urban and coastal areas.

* A moderate risk of rip currents will continue along north- and
  east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Monday)...
Issued at 453 AM AST Sat May 2 2026

A very tranquil night with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies
prevailed across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. This
pattern will continue through the morning hours. However, enough
low-level moisture (PWAT around 1.6-1.8 inches) will combine with
diurnal heating and sea breeze convergence to promote afternoon
showers and isolated thunderstorms. Activity will be focused on
the interior and northwestern Puerto Rico, where localized heavy
rainfall could lead to ponding of water in roads and poorly
drained areas, with a low chance of urban and small stream
flooding.

A pronounced drying trend will develop through Sunday into Monday.
PWAT values are forecast to decrease to near 1.3 inches by Sunday
and drop to below two standard deviations of climatological normal
by Monday, with a marked reduction in mid-level moisture. Although
some troughiness aloft will persist, a building ridge will promote
increasingly stable conditions. Therefore, mostly fair weather is
expected, with only brief afternoon showers over western Puerto Rico
and no flooding risk expected.

Temperatures will remain above normal, driven by southerly low-level
flow advecting a warmer air mass, which is reflected in an
increasing trend of above-normal 925 mb temperatures. This will
support highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and heat indices likely
exceeding 100F across coastal and urban areas.

&&

.Long Term(Tuesday through Saturday)...
Issued at 453 AM AST Sat May 2 2026

A series of surface highs and frontal lows over the Atlantic will
continue to influence steering flow throughout the period. The
period will start with light to moderate ESE winds on Tuesday
through at least Thursday night, this flow will continue to steer
moisture towards the region. Current model guidance suggests that
steering flow will become more variable Thursday night into Friday
turning more NE to E. Diurnal heating and local effects will induce
afternoon convection over mainly interior to W-NW PR Tuesday and
Wednesday while passing showers continue to be steered over windward
sectors, however mainly fair (but warm) weather conditions will
prevail. Most available moisture will be limited to below 800 mb
through most of the period as a mid-level ridge caps it off.
Available moisture will increase somewhat to end the period.
Precipitable water (PWAT) values will start at below normal to
normal, gradually increasing to more normal values as the period
continues particularly Thursday onwards.

By Thursday, an upper-level trough will also begin to amplify and
approach the region from the north and east, briefly increasing
instability (500 mb temps are forecast to cool to low end normal
to below normal values) and the potential for shower and isolated
t-storm development. Model guidance now suggests that this feature
should linger northeast of the area on Friday. This has the
chance to increase afternoon convection, including showers and
isolated t-storms, over mainly interior to W-NW PR on Thursday and
possibly over mainly interior to W-SW-S PR on Friday, prompting a
limited flooding risk both days. 925 mb temperatures are still
forecast at above normal values for this time of the year.
Prevailing ESE flow through most of the periods and available
humidity will prompt a limited heat risk for urban and coastal
areas of the islands with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s at
lower elevations, and in the upper 70s to mid-80s in higher
elevations. Heat indices will reach the upper 90s to low 100s
degrees each day. Low concentrations of saharan dust will filter
into the area during the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 453 AM AST Sat May 2 2026

Mainly VFR conds expected across all terminals. However, locally
induced SHRA/TSRA over interior and NW PR will result in brief MVFR
and -SHRA/VCTS across TJBQ/TJSJ btw ~17-22Z. Winds generally E-SE
8-14 kt with sea breeze variations and higher gusts near
SHRA/TSRA. The 02/00Z sfc sndg indicated winds up to 17 kt blo
FL050.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 453 AM AST Sat May 2 2026

A broad high pressure over the central Atlantic will maintain light
to moderate east to east-southeast winds across the local waters
through the weekend and into early next week. Seas will generally
range between 3 and 5 feet, occasionally up to 6 feet, driven by a
combination of local wind waves and a small, long-period northeasterly
swell. Passing showers and isolated thunderstorms may produce
locally higher winds and seas at times. Overall, marine conditions
will remain generally favorable for small craft through early next
week.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 453 AM AST Sat May 2 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents will continue across the north- and
east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands
through the next several days and into the latter part of next week.
A small, long-period northeasterly swell will occasionally promote
higher breakers and stronger rip currents, particularly along the
north-facing beaches of Puerto Rico. Some improvement is possible by
Thursday, especially across portions of the north coast, but
hazardous conditions may persist at times. Beachgoers should
exercise caution.

For additional information, visit weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CVB
LONG TERM...MRR
MARINE/BEACH...ICP

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion