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FXCA62 TJSJ 061850
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
250 PM AST Wed May 6 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 250 PM AST Wed May 6 2026

* The USVI and PR will continue under a warm to hot weather
  pattern, especially across urban and coastal areas. This level
  of heat affects primarily sensitive individuals without
  effective cooling or adequate hydration.

* Beachgoers can expect a moderate rip current risk to continue
  along the north and east-facing beaches throughout much of the
  forecast period.

* Although mostly fair weather conditions will prevail each day
  across the islands, western PR can expect isolated to scattered
  afternoon showers daily.


&&

.Short Term(This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 250 PM AST Wed May 6 2026

Today featured mostly sunny skies under an east-southeast wind
flow, with maximum temperatures reaching the upper 80s to mid-90s
across urban and coastal areas. Heat index values climbed as high
as 107 degrees Fahrenheit. A few showers moved across the USVI
and eastern Puerto Rico early this morning. By the time this
discussion was written, additional showers had developed downwind
of the USVI and across the surrounding waters, while light rain
was observed over portions of the interior, north, and northwest
Puerto Rico.

Expect generally fair weather through this afternoon and evening,
although isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop across the interior and northwest quadrant of Puerto Rico,
with additional activity possible downwind of the USVI. Some of
these showers and isolated thunderstorms may produce periods of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall.

Although the upper-level trough continues to exit the region, a
mid-level ridge and associated dry air aloft are promoting
subsidence and limiting the overall effects of the trough.
However, local effects, sea breeze convergence, and excessive
daytime heating will still support afternoon convective
development. Once this activity dissipates later this evening,
leeward sections of Puerto Rico can expect mostly clear skies,
which may support some nighttime cooling. Meanwhile, the USVI and
windward Puerto Rico will observe generally fair skies with
occasional partly cloudy periods as patches of moisture moving in
with the trade winds produce passing showers.

This weather pattern is expected to persist through Friday. As
the upper-level trough amplifies across the Lesser Antilles,
Puerto Rico and the USVI will remain under the influence of a mid-
to upper-level ridge through the short-term period. Therefore, a
somewhat stable but seasonable weather pattern is expected,
consisting of passing showers across windward areas overnight and
during the morning hours, followed by afternoon convection across
leeward sections of Puerto Rico.

&&

.Long Term(Saturday through next Tuesday)...
Issued at 250 PM AST Wed May 6 2026

A generally drier-than-normal pattern for shower development will
persist through the period as mid-level ridging and subsidence
dominate across the region. Moisture will remain below normal for
this time of year and mostly confined below 700750 mb, limiting
vertical growth and resulting in reduced shower activity. An east to
east-southeasterly steering flow will prevail, supporting a
consistent daily pattern with brief, quick-moving passing showers
affecting windward areas during the overnight and morning hours,
followed by isolated afternoon convection over interior to west-
northwestern Puerto Rico, driven by local effects and mostly diurnal
heating. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, but coverage
will remain very limited. Minor traces of Saharan dust may be
present at times, though concentrations are expected to remain low.

Breezy conditions will increase into the weekend and early next
week, particularly across coastal and windward areas, supporting a
limited non-thunderstorm wind risk with occasional gusts up to
around 25 mph or higher at times. Increasing temperatures combined
with warm and humid low-level conditions will promote a limited heat
risk each day, mainly affecting sensitive individuals or those with
prolonged outdoor exposure and inadequate hydration. In addition,
the combination of warm temperatures and increasing winds will
maintain the potential for elevated fire danger, particularly across
southern and coastal areas where fuels will continue to dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 250 PM AST Wed May 6 2026

VFR conditions across all terminals. Winds will remain from SE
around 5 - 18kts with occasional higher gusts, becoming light and
variable overnight. VCSH over TIST, TISX, and TJSJ after 06/10Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 PM AST Wed May 6 2026

The interaction between broad surface highs and frontal lows over
the Atlantic will promote moderate easterly to east-southeasterly
winds through tonight. From later tonight through the end of the
weekend, winds will turn more east to east-northeast. Additionally,
increasing winds will promote moderate to fresh winds from this
weekend into early next week.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 250 PM AST Wed May 6 2026

The north and east-facing beaches will possibly observe life-
threatening rip currents throughout the forecast period. A low
risk of rip currents will continue elsewhere. However, exercise
caution, as beaches with low risk could develop life-threatening
rip currents in the vicinity of groins, jetties, reefs, and piers.

Beachgoers can expect increasing winds during the weekend into
next week, promoting a moderate risk of rip currents across most
beaches.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

MORNING CREW...CAM/MMC
EVENING CREW ICP/GRS

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion