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861
FXCA62 TJSJ 050830
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
430 AM AST Thu Feb 5 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 430 AM AST Thu Feb 5 2026

* Hazardous breaking waves resulting in life-threatening rip
  currents continue along the north-facing beaches in PR and the
  northern US Virgin Islands.

* Periods of showers are expected today, as shifting winds promote
  moisture pooling across Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. A
  limited risk of flooding exists, mainly in urban and poorly
  drained areas.

* Weather conditions are expected to deteriorate late Saturday into
  Sunday, as an approaching frontal boundary increases moisture and
  instability, bringing a renewed chance of cooler temperatures,
  showers, and localized flooding, especially Saturday night into
  Sunday.

* Another northerly swell will deteriorate once again, marine and
  coastal conditions late this weekend into early next week.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 430 AM AST Thu Feb 5 2026

Dangerous breaking waves continue to affect the Atlantic Coastline
overnight, creating life-threatening rip currents along the north-
facing beaches in PR and the USVI. As the winds turned easterly, the
showery weather persisted across the US Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico overnight, along with cloudy skies. However, the western half
of mainland PR has little or no rain. The easterlies were 10 to 15
mph, with gusts around 20 mph. Low temperatures were in the low and
mid 60s in the mountains of PR, and in the low to mid 70s along the
coast of PR and the USVI.

A surface high-pressure over the central Atlantic will maintain an
east-southeast wind flow this morning, veering to southerly by the
afternoon and becoming southwesterly by Friday afternoon. By Saturday,
an approaching frontal boundary will induce a weak westerly flow,
which will shift to north-northwesterly by Saturday evening.

This evolving wind pattern will promote moisture pooling across
Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands today, resulting in a showery
weather pattern and a limited risk of flooding rainfall, particularly
in urban areas and poorly drained locations. As winds shift
southwesterly, moisture is expected to erode on Friday and during
the early hours of Saturday, leading to a temporary reduction in
rainfall coverage.

However, as the frontal boundary approaches from the west, moisture
is forecast to increase again by Saturday afternoon, with a more
unsettled, potentially wetter pattern developing, most likely by
late Saturday night. Under this scenario, a limited risk of flooding
rainfall is anticipated from Saturday afternoon onward, with localized
ponding of water in urban and poorly drained areas. The flooding
risk for Saturday will continue to be reassessed as higher-
resolution guidance becomes available.

At this time, thunderstorms are not included in the forecast, as
current model guidance indicates generally unfavorable atmospheric
conditions across Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. Nevertheless,
this potential will be reevaluated in subsequent forecasts,
particularly for Saturday night, should atmospheric instability
increase.

&&

.Long Term(Sunday through Thursday)...
Issued at 430 AM AST Thu Feb 5 2026

The long-term period will begin with the presence of a deep polar
trough and its associated frontal boundary, which will likely
increase rain chances and elevate the flood risk as it crosses the
region. Current meteorological models indicate that the front
will move through the area on Sunday. Precipitable water values
are expected to increase to near-seasonal to above-normal levels.
At this time, the potential for ponding of water on roads and in
poorly drained areas will increase on Sunday across Puerto Rico
and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

From Sunday through midweek, winds are forecast to increase and
shift from the north-northeast as a strong high-pressure system
builds across the western Atlantic, tightening the pressure
gradient over the region. By early next week, moisture levels are
expected to remain near seasonal norms, then increase slightly
from Tuesday through Wednesday as the high shifts farther east
into the Atlantic and lifts the remnant frontal boundary, allowing
enhanced moisture convergence over the area. Limited flood potential
for portions of Puerto Rico and also the USVI. Additionally, mid-
to upper-level conditions are expected to become more dynamically
favorable as another trough moves across the region.

By Thursday, more typical conditions are expected, driven by
available moisture and local effects under a persistent northeasterly
wind flow associated with the high-pressure system moving eastward
across the central to eastern Atlantic. A mid-level ridge will
also begin to establish, bringing increased stability to the
region.

Temperature guidance indicates seasonal to below-normal
temperatures, with the coolest conditions expected from Sunday
through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 430 AM AST Thu Feb 5 2026

SHRA/-SHRA will continue to affect most terminals, occasionally
resulting in brief MVFR conds, due to reduced ceilings and
visibility. E-ESE winds will prevail at 5-15 kt, with higher gusts,
veering from SE-S aft 18z into the evening. SHRA will diminish aft
05/23z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 430 AM AST Thu Feb 5 2026

A high pressure system over the central North Atlantic will promote
moderate southeasterly winds today, gradually veering more from
the south by Friday. A dissipating long-period north-northwesterly
swell will maintain hazardous conditions for small craft across
the northern coastal waters of Puerto Rico until noon today and
across the offshore Atlantic through this afternoon. Gentle to
moderate winds are expected on Friday and Saturday, then increasing
by Sunday in the wake of a frontal boundary approaching from the
northwest, along with increased rain potential. Another strong,
long-period northerly swell will likely arrive early next week,
deteriorating marine conditions and prompting marine hazards again.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 430 AM AST Thu Feb 5 2026

Energy from a dissipating, long-period northerly to north to
northwesterly swell will continue to arrive this morning, resulting
in hazardous swimming conditions across Atlantic exposed beaches.
The High Surf Advisory remains in effect for the northwest, east,
and north-facing coastlines of Puerto Rico, Culebra, and the
northern U.S. Virgin Islands through noon today, with breaking
waves of around 10 feet. Additional pulses of energy will likely
maintain a high risk of rip currents from Friday through the
weekend. Another strong northerly swell is likely early next week,
once again deteriorating coastal conditions and prompting additional
High Surf Advisories. The public is urged to stay out of the
water and continue monitoring official forecasts for updates.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for PRZ001-002-
     005-008.

     High Surf Advisory until noon AST today for PRZ001-002-005-008.

     High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for PRZ010-012.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST early this morning for PRZ010-
     012.

     High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM AST early this morning for
     PRZ011-013.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for VIZ001.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST early this morning for VIZ001.

     High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM AST early this morning for
     VIZ002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for AMZ711.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon AST today for AMZ712-716.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES...CAM
LONG TERM/MARINE/BEACH FORECAST....YZR

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion