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922
FXCA62 TJSJ 020626
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
226 AM AST Thu Apr 2 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 225 AM AST Thu Apr 2 2026

* Life-threatening rip currents will continue along north- and
  east-facing beaches through the weekend. Dangerous surf will
  gradually subside after today, but conditions will remain
  hazardous. Stay out of the water at high-risk areas.

* Hazardous seas will persist for small craft through the
  weekend. Conditions will remain unfavorable across local waters.

* Showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop each afternoon,
  becoming more widespread and stronger over the weekend.
  Flooding risk will increase, along with lightning and gusty
  winds.

* Breezy to locally windy conditions will continue, with stronger
  gusts in exposed areas and near showers.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 225 AM AST Thu Apr 2 2026

A strengthening surface high over the western Atlantic will
maintain breezy east-northeasterly flow across the region today,
gradually veering through the period. Overnight and early morning
conditions remained consistent with previous days, with frequent
passing showers moving southwestward across northern and eastern
coastal areas and occasionally spreading inland, confirming the
forecast remains on track. This pattern will continue today,
bringing periods of passing showers during the morning and
overnight, with afternoon convection developing across interior
and southwestern Puerto Rico due to local effects. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible. Tonight, another band of above-normal
moisture will move across the region, increasing shower activity
across northern and eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands.

From Friday into Saturday, a wetter and more unstable pattern will
develop as winds veer from the east to east-southeast and deeper
moisture spreads across the region. A nearby upper-level trough
and a weak or absent trade wind cap will support more efficient
shower and thunderstorm development. Expect more organized
clusters of showers, followed by enhanced afternoon convection
expanding across the interior and shifting from western to
northwestern Puerto Rico. Thunderstorms will remain mostly
isolated but more frequent than earlier in the period. Winds will
remain moderate to fresh, at times locally strong, helping
showers move quickly while enhancing moisture transport and
convergence. Orographic effects will support additional
development downwind of El Yunque and interior areas, with
activity drifting west-northwest.

The main concerns through the period will be gusty winds,
localized flooding, and thunderstorm hazards. Sustained winds of
15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 to 30 mph are expected,
especially across exposed coastal areas, higher elevations, and
near showers. From Friday onward, deeper moisture and repeated
activity may lead to ponding of water on roads, urban flooding,
and minor flooding of small streams, particularly across western
and northwestern Puerto Rico. Thunderstorms may produce lightning
and locally strong wind gusts. Temperatures will remain near to
slightly below normal due to cloud cover and cool advection, with
highs in the 80s along the coasts and cooler conditions at higher
elevations.

&&

.Long Term(Sunday through Thursday)...
Issued at 225 AM AST Thu Apr 2 2026

A warmer and more humid pattern will support increasing afternoon
convection and a rising flood risk through midweek.

By Sunday onward, the surface pattern will be dominated by high
pressure migrating eastward into the Atlantic, promoting a shift
in low-level winds from easterly to southeasterly, which will
persist through most of the period. A mid- to upper-level
shortwave trough will induce a surface trough northwest of the
region, supporting continued advection and pooling of tropical
moisture into the area. Based on the latest guidance, precipitable
water values are forecast to slightly decrease on Sunday but
remain near to above normal for this time of year, around 1.6 to
1.7 inches. From Monday through Wednesday, as the induced
disturbance drifts northward, increasing low-level moisture from
the Caribbean will spread across the islands, with precipitable
water values rising to around 1.9 to 2.0 inches.

Given this pattern and the latest model guidance, the heaviest
rainfall is expected to remain north of the region over the
Atlantic waters. However, scattered passing showers will affect
the waters, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and windward sections of
Puerto Rico during the overnight and early morning hours, followed
by more widespread and better-organized afternoon convection
across interior and northwestern Puerto Rico. Local effects will
enhance shower and thunderstorm development each day. This
pattern, combined with warm and humid conditions, will increase
the risk of urban and small stream flooding, with flood risk
ranging from limited to elevated.

Temperatures are expected to trend warmer at the beginning of the
long-term period, with 925 mb values approaching the 75th
percentile, or about two standard deviations above normal. This
will further support instability and convective potential each
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 225 AM AST Thu Apr 2 2026

Conds wl remain similar thru the pd. SHRA wl cont to affect
windward TAF sites ovrnght into 02/14Z, with pd MVFR conds (cigs
020030, vsby 35SM). TJPS less impacted early, but SHRA psbl aft
02/17Z with brief MVFR, followed by aftn TSRA dvlp ovr interior/SW
PR psbl impacting the terminal. SHRA wl redevelop ovr windward
TAF sites aft 02/22Z. NE winds 1015 kt ovrnght incr to 1520 kt
g2530 kt aft sunrise, remaining breezy/gusty thru the pd.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 215 AM AST Thu Apr 2 2026

Hazardous marine conditions will persist through the weekend under
a strong Atlantic high-pressure system. Fresh to locally strong
northeasterly winds combined with a north to northeasterly swell
will maintain hazardous, choppy to rough seas across regional
waters, even as winds gradually veer easterly. Frequent trade wind
showers will move across the Atlantic waters and local passages,
while isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms may develop
over coastal waters, especially from the southwest to northwest of
Puerto Rico, drifting west-northwest with the prevailing flow,
with a slight increase in coverage over the weekend. Small Craft
Advisories remain in effect for the Atlantic waters and local
passages through Sunday afternoon, with hazardous conditions
likely to persist into early next week.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 225 AM AST Thu Apr 2 2026

Life-threatening coastal conditions will persist across Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through the weekend as a long-
period northerly to northeasterly swell combines with strong
winds to impact local waters. This combination will affect exposed
coastlines, resulting in a High Surf Advisory, a High Risk of Rip
Currents, and beach erosion. The most hazardous conditions are
expected along the northwest, northern, and east-facing beaches of
Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques, as well as the U.S.
Virgin Islands. The High Surf Advisory remains in effect until 6
PM AST Thursday, while a High Risk of Rip Currents will persist
through Sunday afternoon.

Beachgoers and inexperienced surfers are strongly urged to stay
out of the water. Avoid walking along rocks or jetties, as large
breaking waves can sweep individuals into the sea without
warning. Always heed the advice of lifeguards and follow posted
beach flags and signs. Access to hazardous beaches may be limited,
and individuals should follow all posted warnings and safety
guidance.

In addition to surf hazards, visitors should remain weather aware.
Afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms may develop,
particularly over western Puerto Rico. These storms can produce
dangerous lightning; if you hear thunder, seek shelter immediately
inside a sturdy building.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for PRZ001-002-
     005-008-010-012-013.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001-002-
     005-008-010-012-013.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for VIZ001-002.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for VIZ001-002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST Sunday for AMZ711-712-716-
     723-741-742.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Friday for AMZ726.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM-AVIATION...ICP
LONG TERM-MARINE-BEACH....GRS/YZR

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion