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894
FXCA62 TJSJ 010925
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
525 AM AST Sun Feb 1 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 448 AM AST Sun Feb 1 2026

* An elevated flood threat will persist through midweek. Urban and
  small stream flooding, localized flash flooding, and minor
  landslides in areas of steep terrain are possible, particularly
  from late today through Tuesday. Residents and visitors are
  urged to avoid small streams, creeks, and other recreational
  areas near rivers.

* Life-threatening rip currents are expected once again today
  across the northern beaches from Rincon to Fajardo, Culebra and
  the northern USVI. A large, long-period northerly swell and
  increasing winds will bring hazardous seas and life-threatening
  rip currents across most waters and coastal areas of the islands
  from Monday onward. Rough surf and life-threatening rip
  currents are expected. Beach erosion and minor coastal flooding
  are likely in the most vulnerable coastal areas.

* Isolated thunderstorms are possible through at least midweek,
  bringing localized lightning and brief gusty winds.

* The USVI, will remain on the dry side of the frontal system
  today, but showers are still expected to increase late this
  afternoon into the evening hours. Shower activity will increase
  significantly between Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Tuesday)...
Issued at 448 AM AST Sun Feb 1 2026

Overnight, mostly cloudy skies prevailed across Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands. Scattered showers persisted throughout the
night over Caribbean waters, reaching portions of southern Puerto
Rico, particularly from Guanica to Salinas. Doppler radar
estimated rainfall accumulations of up to 0.50 inches over the
coastal areas of Guayanilla, Penuelas, and Ponce. Minimum
temperatures were in the mid-70s across the lower elevations of
Puerto Rico, while the higher mountains observed temperatures in
the upper 60s to low 70s. Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, lows
were slightly warmer, ranging from the upper 70s to low 80s.

A wet and unsettled weather pattern is anticipated across the region
for the next few days. This is influenced by an approaching frontal
boundary to the northwest, associated with an upper-level polar
trough and a mid-to-upper-level ridge to the east of the islands.
This setup is promoting a southerly low-level flow and enhanced
moisture lifting from the Caribbean. Under this deep-layer
instability, periods of moderate to heavy rainfall and isolated
thunderstorms are expected to persist through midweek.

Today, bands of showers from the Caribbean will continue to affect
portions of southern Puerto Rico during the morning, shifting toward
central and northern Puerto Rico by the afternoon. Rain chances will
increase late tonight as the front moves closer, particularly
impacting western and northwestern Puerto Rico. Consequently, there
is an elevated risk of flooding for these areas today and tonight.
Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, showers will primarily affect the
area during the morning hours.

From Monday into Tuesday, winds are expected to shift to the north
as the front crosses the islands. Under this pattern, shower and
isolated thunderstorm activity will shift toward southern,
southeastern, and eastern Puerto Rico, with some activity reaching
the San Juan metropolitan area. The latest precipitable water
analysis (PWAT) continues to show values well above the
climatological normal, reaching approximately 2.25 inches daily.

The flooding risk will remain elevated across most of the region
over the next few days. If the current forecast materializes, there
is potential for significant flooding, particularly in southern and
eastern Puerto Rico. Expected impacts include rapid river rises,
urban and small-stream flooding, potentially life-threatening flash
floods, landslides, and gusty winds. Residents and visitors are
urged to closely monitor weather updates as the week progresses.
&&

.Long Term(Wednesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 448 AM AST Sun Feb 1 2026

The frontal boundary is expected to linger near the local area
through midweek, as a weak area of high pressure rolls from the
western Atlantic and passes just north of the area into the
central Atlantic by the end of the workweek. This will slow and turn
winds more easterly, and keep an overall higher moisture content
over the area, particularly on Wednesday. Also, a short-wave
trough will promote colder than normal 500 mb temperatures around
minus 7/8C, which destabilizes the atmosphere and increase once
again the likelihood of thunderstorms. Therefore, another
unsettled weather day is expected across the islands, and due to
the expected saturated soils, any additional period of excessive
rainfall will lead to quick flooding. Lingering moisture and
small variations on the 500 mb temperatures will promote shower
and isolated thunderstorm development once again on Thursday.
However, a drying trend is now expected on Friday and early
Saturday, before the arrival of the next deep polar trough and
associated frontal boundary during the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 448 AM AST Sun Feb 1 2026

Mainly VFR conds are expected across all terminals thru the fcst pd.
Today, SCT -SHRA/+SHRA will continue to affect PR and the USVI, that
may result in brief MVFR/IFR CIGs/VIS at times, in particular at
TJBQ/TJPS aft 01/13Z. Isolated TSRA could increase across TJBQ aft
01/17Z. S-SE winds at 10-14 kt with higher gusts and sea breeze
variations aft 01/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 448 AM AST Sun Feb 1 2026

Moderate southerly winds will prevail today, before a frontal
boundary moves from the Atlantic waters from late tonight through
midweek. In response, winds will turn more northerly and are
expected to increase significantly, from 20 to 25 knots with higher
gusts through at least Tuesday. This front will bring heavy showers
and isolated thunderstorms across the local waters. In addition, a
large, long-period northerly swell will build hazardous seas between
8 and 12 feet across the regional waters during the first part of
the workweek. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected across
most, if not all offshore and coastal waters.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 448 AM AST Sun Feb 1 2026

The lingering northerly swell will continue to promote a high
risk of rip currents through 6 PM this afternoon across all
northern-facing beaches, including areas from Rincon to Fajardo,
Culebra, and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands.

Beginning Monday, a stronger, long-period northerly to north-
northwesterly swell is forecast to arrive and persist through the
workweek. This swell is expected to bring rough surf and life-
threatening rip currents, while also increasing the potential for
high surf and minor coastal flooding, particularly during the
peak of the event from Monday into Tuesday across exposed Atlantic
and northwestern coastlines. Beachgoers are urged to continue
monitoring future forecasts as conditions evolve.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 448 AM AST Sun Feb 1 2026

An unusually moist and wet period is expected for early February.
Although streamflows have been running around normal to below
normal levels, taking out yesterday`s rainfall across the eastern
half of PR, the expected rainfall on Monday and Tuesday could
lead to flooding across main rivers and trigger small land slides
in areas of steep terrain. Please be aware of your surroundings if
you live in flood prone areas.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for PRZ001-002-005-
     008-010-012.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for VIZ001.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Monday to 2 AM AST Thursday for
     AMZ711-712-741-742-745.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...GRS

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion