Hurricane Season runs from June 1-November 30
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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)
941 FXCA62 TJSJ 110720 AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 320 AM AST Wed Mar 11 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 302 AM AST Wed Mar 11 2026 * Fresh to locally strong winds will continue to result in choppy to rough seas across the offshore Atlantic waters through this afternoon. Slight improvement in marine conditions is expected starting today through at least Saturday. * Breezy to locally windy conditions will gradually decrease across the islands today and becoming lighter from Thursday onward. * Frequent passing trade wind showers are expected to move across the region over the next few days, with afternoon convective activity over western Puerto Rico. * Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, occasional passing trade wind showers will continue, with a drying trend expected by Friday. && .Short Term(Today through Friday)... Issued at 302 AM AST Wed Mar 11 2026 Clear to partly cloudy skies prevailed across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands overnight. Radar imagery showed bands of showers moving over Vieques and the eastern and northern portions of Puerto Rico. Doppler radar estimated rainfall accumulations of up to 0.30 inches in the heaviest areas, particularly between Patillas and Humacao. While the U.S. Virgin Islands experienced brief showers, most of the activity remained over the coastal waters. Low temperatures ranged from the low to mid-70s across coastal and urban areas, while the higher mountains of Puerto Rico saw lows in the low to mid-60s. Winds remained light and variable throughout the night. A broad surface high pressure system over the central Atlantic will continue to shift eastward through the end of the workweek. In response, winds will begin to decrease as an induced low-level trough approaches from the north-northeast. Local weather conditions are not expected to vary significantly over the next few days, as alternating patches of moisture and drier air from the tropical Atlantic move intermittently across the region. This will promote alternating wet and dry periods, enhanced by an approaching upper- level trough and its associated low-level feature through at least Thursday. Precipitable water (PWAT) values through Thursday will remain above climatological normals, ranging from 1.50 to 1.60 inches. With instability aloft enhanced by the upper-level trough, 500 mb temperatures will drop to between-10C and -11C through Thursday, supporting deep convective activity during the afternoon hours across interior and western Puerto Rico. By Friday and into Saturday, a mid-level ridge is expected to build across the region, promoting more stable and drier conditions aloft. This will reduce PWAT values to near 1.00 inch, which is below climatological normals. Consequently, significant shower activity is not anticipated over the weekend. However, light passing showers will continue to affect the windward portions of the islands periodically during the morning hours. && .Long Term(Saturday through Wednesday)... Issued at 302 AM AST Wed Mar 11 2026 Current model guidance suggests PWAT values around 1.20 to 1.40 inches on Saturday, increasing to around 1.6 inches on Sunday as a patch of more humid air approaches the area. Favorable conditions for shower development will continue as a jet stream aloft continues to promote ventilation to accompany the low level moisture approaching the area. This can promote vertical shower development and possible t-storm formation, particularly during afternoon convection over interior to southwestern PR on Saturday under ENE flow and interior to northwestern PR under ESE flow Saturday onwards, as well as lines of showers from the USVI, Vieques and Culebra to ESE PR. Sunday appears to be the wettest day of the weekend. A broad surface high will move into the western Atlantic and continue building, promoting increased wind speeds. 925 mb wind speeds will be above normal, resulting in breezy to locally windy conditions to start the next week. For the first half of the next workweek, more stable conditions will dominate with warmer 500 mb temperatures. This will serve to limit shower development, however breezy ESE flow will steer showers and patches of moisture towards windward sectors with diurnal heating promoting afternoon convective showers over interior to northwestern PR, as well as lines of showers towards the local islands. 925 mb temperatures will remain at normal values but under a general warming trend with less cloud cover. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 302 AM AST Wed Mar 11 2026 Mainly VFR conds are expected to prevail across all TAF sites during the forecast period. However, quick passing trade wind SHRA may result in VCSH at all terminals 11/23Z causing brief MVFR cigs, particularly at TJSJ/TJBQ. E winds btwn 15-20 kt with gusts up to 28 kt and sea breeze variations aft 11/14Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 302 AM AST Wed Mar 11 2026 A broad surface high pressure system across the offshore Atlantic will promote moderate to fresh easterly winds, keeping seas 6 to 7 feet across the offshore Atlantic waters through at least this morning. A Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect for that area through this morning. Across most nearshore and coastal waters, seas will remain between 5 and 6 feet, resulting in choppy marine conditions. Small craft operators are urged to exercise caution. Subsiding seas to between 3 to 5 feet are forecast tomorrow, Thursday, and Friday as winds also decrease. Winds are forecast to increase around Saturday night into early next week, leading to building seas to around 6 to 8 feet and deteriorated marine conditions once again. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 302 AM AST Wed Mar 11 2026 A moderate risk of rip currents (life-threatening rip currents are possible in the surf zone) for most local beaches. Beachgoers should continue to exercise caution. Tomorrow and Friday, winds are expected to subside. However, a moderate risk of rip currents will continue mainly across north and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and St. Croix . A low risk of rip currents will be present across western and southern exposed beaches of the islands. Even if the risk is low, life-threatening rip currents often occur in the vicinity of groins, jetties, reefs, and piers. The risk is forecast to increase to high around late Sunday into early next workweek. For additional information, please visit: weather.gov/beach/sju. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 302 AM AST Wed Mar 11 2026 The KBDI remains above critical fire weather thresholds in Cabo Rojo (670) and below thresholds in Guanica (520) and Camp Santiago (390). Breezy to windy easterly winds will continue between 13 to 18 mph with higher gusts up to 25 mph at times. Today, RH values will drop near and below critical levels at times as a patch of dry air filters into the area by mid-morning. Passing showers will continue to move across the area from time to time; however, drying soils, lower humidity later in the day and and strong winds will maintain a moderate to elevated fire danger risk today, particularly for southwestern Puerto Rico. By later today through at least Saturday, winds are expected to become light to moderate. Additionally, RH values are expected increase due to the arrival of another patch of moisture into the area. At this time an RFD will not be issued. We urge partners to continue monitoring updates during the morning for a possible elevated fire danger risk if conditions warrant. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until noon AST today for AMZ711. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...GRS LONG TERM/MARINE/BEACH FORECAST....MRR
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