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973 FXCA62 TJSJ 241727 AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 127 PM AST Mon Nov 24 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 108 PM AST Mon Nov 24 2025 * Pleasant temperatures will prevail across the USVI and PR throughout the week. * Breezy trade winds will prevail from Tuesday onward, and possibly becoming windy by the upcoming weekend. * Periods of showers will affect mainly the windward locations of PR and the USVI at times. Regardless, there is no flooding risk forecast for any of the islands. * Low risk of rip currents today, increasing to moderate on Tuesday evening and Wednesday. && .Short Term(This evening through Wednesday)... Issued at 108 PM AST Mon Nov 24 2025 Weather conditions remained relatively stable across the region, with only minimal showers developing over the waters during the morning hours. By the afternoon, additional showers formed over the eastern half or PR and gradually transition across the interior and southwestern portions of Puerto Rico, though rainfall amounts remained light. Temperatures reached the 80s across the urban and coastal areas, while the higher elevations stayed in the 70s. A prevailing northeast wind flow kept conditions pleasant across the islands and also supported the development of showers over the southwestern quadrant of Puerto Rico. Tonight, we anticipate an increase in the frequency of showers, particularly over the windward areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, as an upper level shortwave trough moves across the northeastern Caribbean. As a result, there is some potential for brief ponding of water at night. This weather pattern is expected to prevail through Tuesday afternoon, while the mid level ridge shifts westward toward the Bahamas region. Despite this setup, there remains a low potential for significant flooding through midweek. The latest model guidance continues to indicate an increase in wind speed from Tuesday into Wednesday. This will allow the shower activity that develops during these days to move quickly rather than stall. This also limits the potential for significant flooding. Overall, as mentioned in previous discussions, an advective trade- wind pattern will dominate the short term, supporting a low to moderate chance of showers along the U.S. Virgin Islands and the windward areas of Puerto Rico. A slight to moderate chance of afternoon showers is also anticipated over the interior and southwestern Puerto Rico each day. Temperatures will continue a gradual cooling trend through midweek, with model guidance indicating 925 mb temperatures near the 25th percentile for this time of the year. && .Long Term(Thursday through next Sunday)... Issued at 108 PM AST Mon Nov 24 2025 The long-term period will primarily feature breezy to locally windy conditions, along with patches of moisture embedded within the trade winds. These factors will bring a moderate likelihood of occasional showers. PWAT guidance indicates values remaining near to slightly below normal for November based on climatological data. By Thursday into Friday, the jet streak will shift eastward and away from the area, while the ridging pattern weakens as a polar trough moves across the central Atlantic.From Saturday into early next week, a high-pressure system building over the western Atlantic will further tighten the pressure gradient, resulting in stronger breezes. The breeziest days appear to be Sunday and Monday. A gradual increase in PWAT values may enhance rain chances, although flooding concerns are not anticipated. Model guidance suggests that 925-mb temperatures will remain within the normal to below-normal range for this time of year, supporting the ongoing transition toward more comfortable temperatures. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 108 PM AST Mon Nov 24 2025 VFR will persist across all TAF sites during the period. Winds will remain from the NE at 15 knots with gusty winds, diminishing after 24/23Z becoming more VRB increasing once again at 25/13Z. Some VCSH are forecast along TJSJ, TJPS,TISX, and TIST during the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 108 PM AST Mon Nov 24 2025 As the high pressure system over the western Atlantic moves into the central Atlantic through mid-week, the pressure gradient will tighten, promoting moderate to locally fresh trade winds from tonight or Tuesday onward. As a result, expect confused seas caused by a mix of locally choppy conditions and a brief long- period northeasterly swell arriving between Tuesday and Wednesday. Small craft operators will likely need to exercise caution, particularly across the offshore waters and local Caribbean passages for most of the forecast period. && .MARINE... Issued at 108 PM AST Mon Nov 24 2025 High pressure building over the western Atlantic, combined with a surface trough across the central Atlantic, will maintain gentle to moderate east to northeast winds today. As the high pressure system moves into the central Atlantic through mid-week, the pressure gradient will tighten, promoting moderate to locally fresh trade winds from tonight or Tuesday onward. As a result, expect confused seas caused by a mix of locally choppy conditions and a brief long-period northeasterly swell arriving between Tuesday and Wednesday. Small craft operators will likely need to exercise caution, particularly across the offshore waters and local Caribbean passages for most of the forecast period. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 108 PM AST Mon Nov 24 2025 The risk of rip currents will become moderate on Tuesday evening, due to strengthening winds and a brief northeasterly swell. By Thursday and Friday, the risk is expected to become high along the north- facing beaches of the islands. Always check the beach forecast before heading out, and avoid swimming at beaches with a high risk. For location-specific information, visit weather.gov/beach/sju. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/BEACH FORECAST...MMC LONG TERM...YZR
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