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FXCA62 TJSJ 221824
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
224 PM AST Thu Jan 22 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 224 PM AST Thu Jan 22 2026

* Hazardous marine and beach conditions will persist, with dangerous
  seas and life-threatening rip currents posing a risk to small
  craft and swimmers. While current advisories extend through late
  Friday night, hazards may continue into Saturday or beyond.

* Breezy to windy conditions over the next few days may cause
  unsecured outdoor items to be blown around or damaged. Winds are
  expected to ease Friday through Sunday, though periods of gusty
  winds will still occur.

* Frequent showers and a few thunderstorms are expected tonight into
  Friday, with lightning, brief gusty winds, and locally reduced
  visibility possible.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 224 PM AST Thu Jan 22 2026

Variably cloudy skies prevailed today, with frequent trade-wind
showers moving quickly across the region. Showers affected northern
and eastern Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra, as well as
the U.S. Virgin Islands, with some activity reaching the central
interior of Puerto Rico. Shower coverage increased through the
morning as moisture moved in, though activity remained fast-moving.
Radar-estimated rainfall peaked around 1.5 to 1.75 inches in
isolated areas of north-central Puerto Rico, while amounts across
the U.S. Virgin Islands were generally lower, up to around a quarter
of an inch. Minimum temperatures ranged from the low 60s to mid-70s
across Puerto Rico and the low to mid-70s across Vieques, Culebra,
and the U.S. Virgin Islands, while maximum temperatures so far
peaked in the mid-80s. Trade winds remained strong, with sustained
speeds near 2025 mph and gusts of 3040 mph, especially across
coastal and exposed areas.

A strong subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic will continue
to control the low-level wind pattern, maintaining strong trade
winds that pull above-normal moisture into the area and support fast-
moving showers early in the period. Winds will ease to moderate to
fresh by Friday, allowing showers to become slower-moving and less
frequent, before increasing again to fresh to locally strong by
Saturday. A weak surface trough lingering just west of the region
will help focus moisture and support scattered showers with a few
isolated thunderstorms. Aloft, cooling mid-level temperatures and
strong winds on the left side of a departing upper-level trough will
help sustain cloud cover and allow showers and isolated
thunderstorms where low-level forcing is present. By Saturday night,
another jet maximum associated with an approaching short-wave trough
will move toward the area, allowing mid-level temperatures to cool
again as the pattern transitions toward a more patchy moisture
distribution.

Expect shower activity to be most frequent tonight into Friday,
dominated by trade-wind showers affecting windward coastal waters
and areas first, with occasional showers reaching farther inland.
Periods of scattered to locally numerous showers are expected, with
isolated thunderstorms possible, especially across eastern Puerto
Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Lightning,
brief gusty winds, and locally reduced visibility will be the
primary hazards. Overall risk levels remain limited, with a limited
risk of excessive rainfall and lightning tonight into Friday,
followed by a transition to mainly wind-related hazards as drier and
more patchy conditions develop late Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.Long Term(Sunday through next Wednesday)...
Issued at 224 PM AST Thu Jan 22 2026

Improved weather conditions are forecast to start the next week as
the moisture field from the surface troughs will be west of the
region by early Sunday and drier air advects over the islands. Patches
of drier and moist air will then result in seasonal (

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion