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637 FXCA62 TJSJ 290931 AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 531 AM AST Sat Nov 29 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 530 AM AST Sat Nov 29 2025 * Breezy conditions during the weekend for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, especially along exposed coastal areas. * A moderate risk of rip currents will persist, especially along the north-facing and east facing beaches of the islands. * Pleasant temperatures, with a mix of sunshine and clouds, will prevail across the USVI and PR throughout the forecast period. * Passing showers over windward sectors; afternoon showers and isolated t-storms forecast for this afternoon mainly over western PR posing a limited risk of flooding. * The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season ends tomorrow, November 30th. && .Short Term(Today through Monday)... Issued at 530 AM AST Sat Nov 29 2025 Since midnight, radar estimated accumulations indicate that showers affected eastern PR, Vieques, Culebra and the USVI. The highest accumulations were at Naguabo where isolated areas received around an inch of rain. The highest accumulations at the USVI were at St. Croix, which received around 0.28 in. Lows ranged from the low to mid 70s at coastal and urban areas of Puerto Rico. Reported lows over interior Puerto Rico were in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Lows were in the 70s at the U.S. Virgin Islands. Satellite derived precipitable water (PWAT) imagery indicate a patch of moist air gradually exiting the region with values ranging from 1.5 to 1.7 in, at normal values for this time of the year. A mid to upper level trough will continue moving eastward and away from the region, with a weak mid to upper level ridge building over the islands. An upper trough will then approach the region from the north by late Sunday and Monday. PWAT will be at up to normal values (1.5 to 1.8 in) throughout the period, with a slight dip towards below normal values forecast today (due to a patch of drier air). A surface high will build over the western to central Atlantic during the period supporting generally breezy conditions through Sunday, with wind speeds decreasing on Monday as a frontal low moves over the northwestern Atlantic and helps loosen the pressure gradient pushing the surface high eastward. East to east-northeast steering flow will persist during the period. Hi-resolution model guidance continues to suggest overnight and early morning showers (and a few isolated t-storms), mainly for eastern PR and the USVI. Afternoon convection is forecast over western Puerto Rico where isolated t- storms could also develop with areas downwind of El Yunque and of the USVI also possibly seeing convective activty. A limited flooding risk will remain today for the region as heavy downpours over western PR are forecast to occur. 925 mb temperatures are forecast at below normal to normal values for this time of the year. The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season ends this Sunday, November 30th. According to the NHC`s latest Tropical Weather Outlook, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. && .Long Term(Tuesday through Saturday)... Issued at 530 AM AST Sat Nov 29 2025 The forecast remains on track. From Tuesday into Wednesday, expect northeasterly winds to weaken gradually. Precipitable water (PWAT) values show fluctuating moisture levels but, overall, remain near normal for this time of year (1.501.75 inches). This moisture, combined with the northeasterly flow, will support periods of passing showers, mainly affecting windward areas. Afternoon convection also remains possible, particularly across interior and southwestern Puerto Rico, where brief heavy downpours may develop. An upper-level trough will linger over the region through midweek, and we will need to continue monitoring its evolution to determine whether any of its features begin to reflect at the surface and potentially influence local weather conditions. Drier air is still expected to filter in, with PWAT values dropping below 1.4 inches, accompanied by continued breezy easterly winds by the weekend. Temperatures at 925 mb are forecast to rise to near- average values, supporting seasonal surface temperatures. No heat- related risks are anticipated at this time. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM AST Sat Nov 29 2025 Mainly VFR conditions forecast during the period. VCSH affecting mainly TJSJ/TISX/TIST. Afternoon SHRA/Isold TSRA developing, mainly over interior to western PR, and affecting PR terminals or their VCTY. E winds at 13-18 kts with higher gusts and sea breeze variations after 29/14z, decreasing after 29/22z. && .MARINE... Issued at 530 AM AST Sat Nov 29 2025 A surface high pressure over the Central Atlantic, interacting with a cold front moving eastward across the western Atlantic, will promote fresh to strong trade winds this weekend into early next week. This will result in choppy to rough seas across most offshore waters and passages, particularly those offshore Atlantic waters. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 530 AM AST Sat Nov 29 2025 Similar to yesterday, a moderate risk of rip currents continues along beaches from northwestern to southeastern Puerto Rico, as well as at Vieques, Culebra, and the USVI. This moderate risk will persist throughout next week week, with life- threatening rip currents possible, especially along the north- facing beaches of the islands. By tomorrow, southern and southeastern PR, as well as Vieques are forecast to drop to a low risk. Elsewhere, a low risk is expected, however, even with a low risk, dangerous rip currents can still develop near groins, jetties, reefs, and piers. For location- specific details, visit weather.gov/beach/sju. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ MRR/MMC
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