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353
FXCA62 TJSJ 250647
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
247 AM AST Wed Feb 25 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 237 AM AST Wed Feb 25 2026

* Hazardous seas, life-threatening rip currents and high surf
  conditions are expected through at least Friday along the
  Atlantic waters and passages, and along the north-facing beaches
  of the islands.

* Breezy conditions and passing trade wind showers expected for
  the next few days.

* Across the USVI, breezy, and quick passing showers can be
  expected at times.

* Minor concentrations of Saharan dust are expected to continue
  today over the region.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Friday)...
Issued at 237 AM AST Wed Feb 25 2026

The short-term period will be characterized by a transition toward
a drier, breezier tradewind pattern, followed by a slight rebound
in shallow moisture by the end of the workweek. Today, a drier
air mass filtering in will begin to limit shower intensity in
general. The GFS indicates precipitable water (PWAT) values
briefly dipping to 0.90 inches before settling near the 25th
percentile (around 1.2 to 1.4 inches) later in the day. Although
PWAT values will remain near climatological levels, mid-level
drying and traces of Saharan dust will promote more stable
conditions, particularly during the morning hours. This mid-level
drying is evident in the 700mb-500mb relative humidity layer,
which drops noticeably through Thursday. By this afternoon,
convection should be limited, with isolated to scattered showers,
favoring western Puerto Rico due to local effects and daytime
heating. Any rainfall accumulations are expected to be localized
and less than an inch, reducing the flood threat compared to
yesterday.

As the week progresses, a surface high pressure over the central
Atlantic will strengthen, tightening the pressure gradient and
promoting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds. The 925mb wind
speeds jump from 1015 knots early this morning to 1822 knots
through Thursday and Friday. By Thursday, these stronger trades
will result in faster-moving showers embedded within the flow,
mainly affecting windward coastal areas overnight and in the
morning. Afternoon convection across the interior and western
sections of Puerto Rico will remain possible but should be less
widespread due to the drier mid-level air. Overall, flooding
concerns should remain limited given the progressive nature of the
showers and decreasing moisture content, with PWAT values
trending near to below climatology normals.

For Friday, the broad surface high pressure across the Central
Atlantic will remain the dominant weather feature, keeping
moderate to fresh easterly winds in place. However, the global
model guidance shows a rebound in lower-level moisture, with PWAT
values climbing back into the 1.40 to 1.70 inch range and
corresponding spikes in the 850-700mb relative humidity (7080%).
Under this wind pattern, these patches of shallow moisture moving
across the islands will enhance cloudiness and support a showery
pattern once again, especially across the U.S. Virgin Islands and
eastern Puerto Rico during the morning hours, and better organized
afternoon convection over west/northwest PR.

&&

.Long Term(Saturday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 237 AM AST Wed Feb 25 2026

A strong surface high pressure system over the north-central
Atlantic will dominate the regional pattern through the period,
maintaining fresh to occasionally strong low-level winds across the
islands. Winds will generally range from east-southeast to southeast
from Saturday through Monday, becoming more easterly by Tuesday as
the high shifts. This wind regime will support slightly warmer
daytime temperatures over the weekend, followed by modest cooling as
the easterly flow becomes established. A weak trade wind cap
inversion, combined with slightly drier air and lower precipitable
water over the weekend, will limit shower coverage. On Monday,
moisture levels are expected to increase, and a weak upper-level
short-wave trough to the north, with stronger jet-level winds
overhead, will create conditions favorable for eroding the trade
wind cap and supporting deeper moisture and showers. Temperatures
are expected to remain near seasonal averages overall.

From a hazard perspective, breezy to locally windy conditions will
persist, which may make outdoor activities or small-scale operations
more difficult. Showers may become heavier and more widespread
Monday, particularly across eastern and west-northwestern Puerto
Rico. Minor flooding in urban and low-lying areas is possible,
especially during the afternoon hours, though widespread flooding is
not expected. The combination of strong low-level winds and fast-
moving showers may also produce brief heavy rainfall, localized
impacts, and gusty conditions that could affect exposed areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 237 AM AST Wed Feb 25 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals
during the next 24 hours. However, trade wind SHRA could move at
times across the area terminals, causing mostly VCSH. At TJBQ,
VCTS expected btw 25/16-22z due to iso TSRA developing over
western PR. The wind will prevail from the east at 12-17 knots,
with stronger gusts and sea breeze variations aft 25/13z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 237 AM AST Wed Feb 25 2026

A long-period north-northwesterly swell will spread across the
Atlantic waters and passages through Friday, building seas between 6
and 10 feet. Hazardous seas are expected to linger through Friday,
and Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all Atlantic waters and
local passages. Moderate to fresh trades will return through the end
of the week, as a surface high pressure strengthens over the Central
Atlantic.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 237 AM AST Wed Feb 25 2026

A long-period north-northwesterly swell is expected to arrive and
spread across the local Atlantic waters and passages today through
at least Friday. A Rip Current Statement is in effect through
Friday afternoon due to life-threatening rip currents along
northern exposed beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands. In addition, a High Surf Advisory will be in effect from
6 AM AST this morning though 6 AM AST Friday, as we anticipate
large breaking waves and minor beach erosion, particularly
hazardous for beachgoers. Beach conditions will start to improve
by Saturday as the swell gradually subsides.

For safety, always check local conditions before swimming.
Beachgoers and inexperienced surfers are urged to avoid beaches
exposed to the northerly swell. Remember to swim near a lifeguard,
never swim alone, and, if caught in a rip current, remain calm, do
not exhaust yourself, and stay afloat while waiting for help.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for PRZ001-002-
     005-008-010>013.

     High Surf Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 AM AST Friday for
     PRZ001-002-005-008-010.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for VIZ001.

     High Rip Current Risk from Thursday morning through Friday
     afternoon for VIZ002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until noon AST Friday for AMZ711-712-716-
     723-741-742.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for AMZ745.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSR
LONG TERM....ICP
AVIATION...DSR
MARINE-BEACH FORECAST...GRS/DSR

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion