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FXCA62 TJSJ 260800 CCA
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
400 AM AST Thu Feb 26 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 237 AM AST Thu Feb 26 2026

* Hazardous marine and beach conditions continue along the
  Atlantic coastlines of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
  Islands. Life- threatening rip currents and dangerous breaking
  waves are expected from Rincon to Fajardo, including Culebra,
  St. Thomas, and St. John.

* Breezy trade winds will bring passing showers across the USVI
  and PR`s windward sections through the end of the week. Most
  showers will be brief and fast-moving, but isolated periods of
  moderate to heavy rain could cause ponding on roads and reduced
  visibility.

* Friday appears to be the wettest day of the short term, with
  warmer temperatures and a slightly higher chance of afternoon
  thunderstorms. Widespread flooding is not expected, but
  localized impacts remain possible.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 237 AM AST Thu Feb 26 2026

Overnight conditions were generally calm across Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands. High-level cirrus clouds moved eastward
across the northeastern Caribbean. A few brief showers passed over
windward (eastern, including E-PR/USVI) locations, but most of
the rain activity remained over the regional waters. Temperatures
fell into the middle or lower 70s along the coast and into the low
60s, and even cooler, across the higher elevations and valleys,
at the moment of writing this discussion. Winds were light
overall, ranging from calm in some western areas to 5-15 mph
across exposed eastern sites.

A surface high pressure system building across the central and
western Atlantic will promote a typical trade wind pattern over
the next several days. Breezy easterly winds today will bring
fast-moving patches of moisture across the region. By Friday
afternoon into Saturday, winds will gradually shift to the east-
southeast, allowing temperatures to trend warmer and pooling
additional moisture, especially on Friday.

Most showers will move quickly from east to west. Although brief
periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall are possible, the
fast motion of showers should limit the potential for widespread
flooding. However, residents and visitors should remain alert for
brief reductions in visibility and ponding of water on roadways
and in poorly drained areas.

Mid-level air remains relatively dry, limiting the overall
coverage of afternoon convection. Still, localized showers are
expected each afternoon over interior and western Puerto Rico due
to daytime heating. Rainfall coverage is forecast to increase
somewhat on Friday as available moisture deepens, and a few
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out (thus, we included the isolated
thunderstorms for the afternoon). Friday is currently the wettest
day of the short-term period.

The primary hazard at this time remains hazardous marine and
coastal conditions along the Atlantic-facing coastlines. Dangerous
breaking waves and life-threatening rip currents are expected
from Rincon through Fajardo, including Culebra, as well as across
St. Thomas, St. John, and adjacent islands. Beachgoers are
strongly urged to follow local safety guidance and avoid entering
the water where rip current risk is high. Overall, flooding
concerns remain limited due to the fast-moving nature of showers
and moisture values trending near to slightly below climatological
normals.

&&

.Long Term(Sunday through Thursday)...
Issued at 237 AM AST Thu Feb 26 2026

A broad surface high over the north-central Atlantic will continue
to dominate the regional pattern through midweek, maintaining a
tight pressure gradient and breezy to windy low-level flow across
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Winds will remain from
the east-southeast to southeast on Sunday, gradually backing to
easterly Monday night into Tuesday as the high shifts eastward. By
Wednesday, an additional high building into the western Atlantic
will reinforce the gradient and promote east to east- northeast
winds across the region. This evolving wind pattern will govern
moisture transport and shower distribution. Sunday will remain
relatively stable with lingering drier air and a weak trade wind
cap limiting convection; however, moisture will increase beginning
Sunday night and persist through midweek, with embedded patches
of deeper moisture moving within the trade wind flow.

Breezy to windy conditions will persist each day, with gusty periods
possible in exposed and elevated areas. Frequent passing showers
will continue daily as strong trade winds push moisture inland, with
coverage increasing Monday and Tuesday as deeper moisture moves
across the region. As winds shift from east-southeast to easterly
and eventually east-northeasterly, shower activity will adjust,
favoring eastern and southeastern areas at first, then northeastern
areas later in the period, while afternoon showers develop over
interior and western Puerto Rico. Significant rainfall may
accumulate where showers repeatedly move over the same areas, and
isolated heavier afternoon downpours could lead to minor urban and
small stream flooding, particularly Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures
will remain near seasonal normals. Overall, the primary hazards
through midweek will be persistent breezy to windy conditions each
day and an limited flooding risk early in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 237 AM AST Thu Feb 26 2026

VFR conditions will prevail today. Patches of low-level clouds
moving from the east will bring SCT to brief BKN ceilings at times
across local terminals. Also, some showers will develop near JBQ
between 26/18-23z. Winds will prevail calm to light and variable
across the leeward sites, and from E at 8-11 kt across the
windward sites. After 26/13z, winds will be mainly from the E at
10-20 kt with higher gusts and sea breeze variations through
26/23z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 237 AM AST Thu Feb 26 2026

The long-period north-northwesterly swell will continue to spread
across the Atlantic waters and passages through Friday, building
seas between 6 and 10 feet. Hazardous seas are expected to linger
through Friday, and Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all
Atlantic waters and local passages. Fresh to locally strong trades
will return through the end of the week, as a surface high
pressure strengthens over the Central Atlantic.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 237 AM AST Thu Feb 26 2026

The High Surf Advisory remains in effect for the northern shore of
Puerto Rico, from Rincon through Fajardo and was extended to Culebra
and Saint Thomas through Friday. In these areas, expect localized
beach erosion and dangerous swimming conditions. Swell energy will
also result in hazardous beach conditions in Vieques and Saint
Croix. For further details on hazard timing and locations, please
refer to CFWSJU. Beach conditions will start to improve by
Saturday as the swell gradually subsides.

For safety, always check local conditions before swimming.
Beachgoers and inexperienced surfers are urged to avoid beaches
exposed to the northerly swell. Remember to swim near a lifeguard,
never swim alone, and, if caught in a rip current, remain calm, do
not exhaust yourself, and stay afloat while waiting for help.

For localized and updated rip current information, visit
weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for PRZ001-002-
     005-008-010>013.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Friday for PRZ001-002-005-008-
     010.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM AST this
     afternoon for PRZ027.

     High Surf Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 AM AST Friday for
     PRZ012.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for VIZ001.

     High Surf Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 AM AST Friday for
     VIZ001.

     High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM AST this morning through Friday
     afternoon for VIZ002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight AST Friday night for AMZ711-
     723.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST Friday for AMZ712-716-726-
     733-741.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon AST Friday for AMZ742-745.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for AMZ745.

&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES/SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CAM
LONG TERM....ICP
MARINE/BEACH FORECAST...MMC

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion