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069
FXCA62 TJSJ 061816
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
216 PM AST Fri Mar 6 2026

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 213 PM AST Fri Mar 6 2026

* Fresh to strong winds will result in choppy to rough seas and
  high risk of rip currents across the region. Small Craft
  Advisories and Rip Current Statements continue in effect through
  at least Sunday.

* Breezy to locally windy conditions will continue during the
  forecast period, particularly across the coastal areas of the
  islands; unsecured and outdoor objects may blow around.

* Patches of moisture will filter across the islands from the E to
  ENE at times during the forecast period, increasing fast-moving
  shower frequency, while a trough will gradually approach the
  region from the west this weekend into early next week.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 213 PM AST Fri Mar 6 2026

Earlier today, pockets of frequent and fast-moving showers moved
across northern and eastern Puerto Rico as well as Culebra during
the morning hours, producing rainfall accumulations generally
between 0.10 and 0.33 inches. Winds were from the east-northeast at
10 to 20 mph with higher gusts. By around 10:30 AM, a drier air mass
began filtering across the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto
Rico, resulting in improving conditions and mostly clear skies
across much of the region during the afternoon hours.

The main weather feature for tonight into Saturday is the expected
overnight particularly across windward sectors including the U.S.
Virgin Islands, eastern Puerto Rico, and northern Puerto Rico. With
the brisk trade winds, showers will move quickly but may produce
brief periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Additional
afternoon convection is expected over western Puerto Rico on
Saturday, where isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out.
Localized ponding of water in poorly drained areas will be possible.

Although precipitable water values will gradually decrease on
Sunday, regardless patches of moisture continue to stream across the
region from time to time combined with the expected afternoon
convection developing over western Puerto Rico each day. A limited
flooding risk will persist through the weekend, particularly in
areas that receive repeated showers.

Overall, throughout the forecast period expect the breezy to locally
windy conditions remain across Puerto Rico and the US Virgin
Islands. A series of surface highs over the western to central
Atlantic will maintain a tight local pressure gradient, promoting
breezy to windy ENE winds across the region, gradually becoming more
easterly by late Sunday. Wind speeds of 10 to 20 mph with higher
gusts will remain common across the islands, producing a limited to
locally elevated wind risk where unsecured items could blow around.
This persistent flow will also maintain 925 mb temperatures near
seasonal values through the weekend. Relatively low concentrations
of Saharan dust are expected to continue filtering across the region
through the forecast period.

&&

.Long Term(Monday through next Thursday)...
Issued at 511 AM AST Fri Mar 6 2026

High pressure over the western Atlantic will remain the dominant
surface feature early in the period while gradually shifting
northeast. This pattern will maintain easterly to east-northeasterly
winds across the northeastern Caribbean. Moisture will be somewhat
fragmented early in the period, with precipitable water values near
typical to slightly below normal Monday into Tuesday. A deeper
moisture plume is expected to arrive Tuesday night and persist
through Thursday before drier air begins filtering back into the
region Thursday night. Aloft, a trough extending from near Jamaica
toward eastern Cuba early in the period will gradually weaken and
become more elongated while lingering near Hispaniola. At the same
time, an upper-level jet will remain positioned over or near the
forecast area, providing periods of divergence aloft and slightly
cooler temperatures that will promote ventilation across Puerto Rico
and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Winds are expected to gradually weaken
Wednesday into Thursday as the pressure gradient relaxes, though
another high pressure system building over the western Atlantic late
Thursday may signal the start of another period of strengthening
winds.

From a hazards perspective, breezy to locally windy conditions will
remain the primary concern early in the period, particularly Monday
through Tuesday. Winds are expected to ease somewhat by midweek
before potentially increasing again late Thursday. Rainfall will
remain a secondary concern, mainly from passing trade wind showers
affecting windward areas overnight and during the morning hours,
followed by locally driven afternoon showers across interior and
western Puerto Rico. As moisture increases Tuesday night through
Thursday and upper-level conditions remain somewhat favorable,
showers may become more numerous with the potential for isolated
thunderstorms. Periods of moderate rainfall could lead to brief
ponding of water in poor drainage areas, although the overall
flooding risk currently appears limited.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 213 PM AST Fri Mar 6 2026

VFR conds expected thru the period across all TAF sites. ENE winds
btwn 15-20 kt with gusts higher than 25 kt through 06/22Z. SHRA and
VCTS could affect TIST, TISX, TSJU terminals after 07/00Z. VCSH
possible over TJPS and TJBQ after 06/18Z through 06/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 213 PM AST Fri Mar 6 2026

The marine forecast remains on track, with hazardous marine
conditions expected to continue over the next several days. A series
of high pressure systems across the Atlantic will promote fresh to
locally strong east-northeasterly winds throughout the forecast
period. The latest ASCAT observations show a broad area of winds
between 20 and 25 kt across the regional waters and passages.
Additionally, local buoys continue to report seas between 5 and 6
feet. This will continue to result in choppy to rough seas across
most regional waters and local Caribbean passages, hazardous for
small craft operators. Therefore, Small Craft Advisories remain in
effect through at least Sunday, although these may be extended as
hazardous conditions will possibly continue the next workweek.
Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels,
should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 213 PM AST Fri Mar 6 2026

Hazardous beach conditions are expected to continue across the
islands due to strengthening winds leading to breezy to windy
conditions and a trade wind swell spreading across the local waters
and passages.  Although the trade wind swell will gradually diminish
later today, the latest local buoy observations continue to report
seas between 5 and 6 feet. Additionally, the latest model guidance
suggests wave heights between 6 and 8 across the regional waters
through early next week. Given the current conditions and forecast,
the Rip Current Statement remains in effect through Sunday over
northern and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico, including Vieques and
Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Residents and visitors are
encouraged to continue monitoring the conditions and to heed the
advice of the flag system, as well as the beach patrol flags and
posted signs. Although model guidance continues to suggest that the
swell will gradually diminish by late Friday night, hazardous
conditions are likely to persist this weekend and early next week.

For the rest of the areas, the moderate risk will continue for the
next several days. Beachgoers should exercise caution, as life-
threatening rip currents are still possible along the surf zone. For
additional information and location-specific rip current details,
please visit: weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for PRZ001-002-
     005-008-012-013.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for VIZ001-002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST Sunday for AMZ711-712-716-
     723-726-733-741.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for AMZ735.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MMC
LONG TERM...ICP
MARINE/BEACH...MNG

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion