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693
FXCA62 TJSJ 260918
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
518 AM AST Wed Nov 26 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 518 AM AST Wed Nov 26 2025

* Up to breezy conditions will continue due to a surface high
  pressure over the Central Atlantic.

* Wind-driven seas will result in choppy and hazardous marine
  conditions for small craft. A small craft advisory will be in
  effect later tonight for the local offshore Atlantic.

* Periods of showers will affect mainly the windward locations of
  Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands at times. Afternoon
  showers are forecast today mainly for SW PR.

* There is a moderate risk of rip currents for the northern
  exposed beaches of PR, as well as for Culebra, Vieques and St.
  Croix; this risk will spread this evening to eastern PR,
  southeastern PR, St. John and St. Thomas.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Friday)...
Issued at 518 AM AST Wed Nov 26 2025

During the overnight hours, showery weather persisted across the
local waters, with a few showers reaching northern and eastern
Puerto Rico and the vicinity of the U.S. Virgin Islands. These
produced no significant impacts, and radar estimated rainfall totals
were minimal. Surface observations showed winds influenced by land-
breeze fluctuations, generally at 8 to 10 mph or less, with
occasional slightly higher gusts. Minimum temperatures ranged from
the low to mid-70s across coastal areas and the U.S. Virgin Islands,
and into the low 60s or slightly lower across the mountains and
interior valleys of Puerto Rico.

At the surface, high pressure over the western Atlantic continues to
move eastward into the central Atlantic, tightening the pressure
gradient and supporting a persistent northeasterly flow across the
region. As a result, breezy trade winds are expected today and
tomorrow, with a slight decrease anticipated by Friday. Aloft, a
shortwave trough will move away today and tonight, allowing weak
ridging to briefly develop before a polar trough moves across the
central Atlantic, altering the upper-level pattern. Precipitable
water values are forecast to remain below normal today (1.20 to 1.30
inches) as mixed patches of dry and slightly more humid air stream
in under the northeasterly flow. Under this pattern, no significant
rain hazards are expected. There is a slight chance of morning
showers across the U.S. Virgin Islands and windward areas of Puerto
Rico, and a slight to moderate chance of afternoon showers across
southwestern Puerto Rico. With increasing wind speeds, any showers
will move quickly, further limiting rainfall accumulations and
keeping flood risk very low to none.

Tonight, moisture content will increase to near-normal levels
(around 1.5 to 1.6 inches), and with the axis of the upper-level
shortwave trough still present, an uptick in shower activity is
anticipated, particularly across the windward areas of Puerto Rico
and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

A similar pattern of trade-wind showers will persist on Thanksgiving
Day and Friday, with isolated showers overnight and in the morning,
followed by isolated to scattered afternoon showers across western
municipalities. No significant flooding impacts are expected though.

Model guidance continues to show 925-mb temperatures near the 25th
percentile for November climatology throughout the forecast period,
supporting more pleasant daytime and nighttime temperatures with no
heat risk impacts anticipated.

Overall, expect quick-moving passing showers with little to no flood
threat, fresher temperatures. Strengthening winds will be the
primary weather concern, producing breezy conditions that may cause
unsecured items, especially near coastal areas, to be blown around.

&&

.Long Term(Saturday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 518 AM AST Wed Nov 26 2025

Generally breezy conditions are forecast to start the long term
period, particularly Saturday to Monday as a surface high builds
over the western to central Atlantic and tightens the pressure
gradient. 925 mb wind speeds are forecast at high end normal to
slightly above normal values during these days, with model
guidance suggesting a decrease towards normal values Tuesday and
Wednesday. By Tuesday and Wednesday a low pressure system will
move out of the eastern US towards the Atlantic promoting a looser
pressure gradient and promote more seasonal wind speeds. PWAT
values will be at up to normal values (1.5 to 1.8 in) with patches
of drier and slightly more humid air providing some variability.
Patches of moisture will promote showers steered by east-
northeast, becoming more northeasterly as the period progresses,
flow to reach windward sectors of the islands at times and promote
a chance of afternoon showers mainly over interior to SW PR.
Model guidance suggests the Wednesday will be the most humid day
with PWAT values at around 1.9 to 1.9 in, but uncertainty remains.
Flooding risks are not forecast during the period but above
mentioned showers can promote brief heavy downpours. 925 mb
temperatures are forecast to remain at below normal to low end
normal values for this time of the year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 518 AM AST Wed Nov 26 2025

VFR conditions will persist along all the TAF sites during the day.
Expect period of VCSH across the USVI and TJSJ this morning. E to NE
wind flow will dominate, becoming breezy with gust up to 20 to 25
mph aft 26/14Z. Wind speeds becoming lighter aft 26/21-22Z, around 8
to 10 mph, with land breeze variation overnight. An uptick in shower
activity is anticipated, particularly across the windward areas of
Puerto Rico and the USVI sites aft 27/02Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 518 AM AST Wed Nov 26 2025

A building surface high pressure moving into the central Atlantic
will bring moderate to locally fresh easterly winds over the next few
days. A dissipating northeasterly swell will also be present early
today. A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect from late tonight
through Friday morning for the Atlantic offshore waters due to
locally choppy wind waves. Small Craft should still exercise caution
over other local waters. Increasing winds and building seas are also
forecast by Saturday night and into early next week.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 518 AM AST Wed Nov 26 2025

There is a moderate risk of rip currents for the northern exposed
beaches of Puerto Rico, as well as for Culebra, Vieques and St.
Croix. This evening the moderate risk of rip currents is forecast
to spread towards eastern PR, southeastern PR, St. John and St.
Thomas. By early tomorrow, areas of southern PR will also be under
a moderate risk of rip currents. Up to a moderate risk of rip
currents will continue during the rest of the week with localized
areas possibly under a high risk of rip currents tomorrow night.
Always check the beach forecast before heading out, and avoid
swimming at beaches with a high risk of rip currents. For
location-specific information, visit weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon AST Friday
     for AMZ711.

&&

$$

YZR/MRR

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion