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042 FXCA62 TJSJ 250915 AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 515 AM AST Tue Nov 25 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 515 AM AST Tue Nov 25 2025 * Breezy trade winds will prevail from today onward; possibly becoming windy by this weekend. * A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast from this evening onwards. * Pleasant temperatures will prevail across the USVI and PR throughout the week. * Periods of showers will affect mainly the windward locations of the islands at times. Afternoon showers forecast today mainly for interior to SW PR. && .Short Term(Today through Thursday)... Issued at 515 AM AST Tue Nov 25 2025 Mostly quiet conditions prevailed overnight. Radar imagery showed isolated showers over the local waters, with a few reaching the windward sides of the islands. These produced no significant impacts, and radar-estimated rainfall totals were minimal. Surface observations indicated somewhat variable winds at 10 to 13 mph or less with slightly higher occasional gusts. Minimum temperatures ranged from the low to mid-70s across coastal areas and the U.S. Virgin Islands, and into the low 60s, or slightly lower, across the mountains and interior valleys of Puerto Rico. The short-term forecast remains on track. At the surface, high pressure over the western Atlantic will shift eastward into the central Atlantic through the forecast period, tightening the pressure gradient and promoting a northeasterly flow across our region. As a result, breezy trade winds are expected, particularly today and Wednesday. Aloft, a shortwave trough will cross the northeastern Caribbean today as a mid-level ridge migrates toward the Cuba and Bahamas region. Under this pattern, an advective trade- wind pattern will continue to dominate the short term, supporting a low to moderate chance of nighttime showers across the U.S. Virgin Islands and windward areas of Puerto Rico, and a slight to moderate chance of afternoon convection over interior and southwestern Puerto Rico each day. With increasing wind speeds, showers will move quickly, further limiting rainfall accumulations and keeping flood risk from none to very low. Overall, expect quick-moving passing showers with little to no flood threat. The primary weather impact today and Wednesday will be the strengthening winds, which will result in breezy conditions. Unsecured items may be blown around, particularly in coastal areas. && .Long Term(Friday through Tuesday)... Issued at 515 AM AST Tue Nov 25 2025 Breezy to locally windy conditions are forecast for the long term period, particularly Saturday onwards as a surface high builds over the Atlantic. Increasing moisture will maintain PWAT values at up to normal values (1.5 to 1.8 in) with patches of drier and slightly more humid air providing some variability. Patches of moisture will promote showers steered by east-northeast, becoming more northeasterly as the period progresses, flow to reach windward sectors of the islands at times and promote a chance of afternoon showers mainly over interior to SW PR. Flooding risks are not forecast during the period. By Friday, the jet streak will continue moving eastward and away from the area, while the ridging weakens as a polar trough moves across the central Atlantic. However, by Saturday and throughout the period, a high- pressure system will build over the western to central Atlantic, tightening the pressure gradient and resulting in increasing winds. The breeziest days appear to be Sunday through Tuesday. 925 mb temperatures are forecast to remain at below normal to low end normal values for this time of the year. Supporting highs in generally the 80s, with some coastal/urban areas in the 90s and higher elevations of PR in the 70s to low 80s, and lows in the low to mid 70s, with some urban/coastal areas in the upper 70s and higher elevations of PR into the upper 50s to low 60s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 515 AM AST Tue Nov 25 2025 VFR conds across all TAF sites with just VCSH across TJSJ/TJBQ & TIST/TISX in the USVI this morning and thru the rest of the forecast period. Main aviation concern: NE wind flow will dominate, becoming breezy with gusts up to 20 to 25 mph or slightly higher aft 25/13Z. VCSH possible bwn 25/15-21Z across TJSJ and TJPS. Wind speeds becoming lighter aft 25/23Z, around 8 to 10 mph, with land breeze variation overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 515 AM AST Tue Nov 25 2025 A building high-pressure system moving into the central Atlantic will bring increasing moderate to locally fresh easterly winds over the next few days. Confused seas are forecast as locally choppy wind waves combine with an incoming northeasterly swell through tomorrow, Wednesday. Small craft operators should exercise caution; small craft advisories likely for tomorrow evening. Increasing winds and building seas are also forecast by Saturday night and into the weekend. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 515 AM AST Tue Nov 25 2025 The risk of rip currents will remain low until this evening along all local beaches in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. By this evening, a moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for the northern beaches of Puerto Rico and Culebra, as well as for eastern St. Croix. Coverage of the moderate risk of rip currents will increase to the northern USVI, Vieques and areas of southern Puerto Rico as the week continues. By Thursday and Friday, a high risk of rip currents is possible along north-facing beaches of Puerto Rico. High risk of rip currents are also forecast to start the next workweek. Always check the beach forecast before heading out, and avoid swimming at beaches with a high risk of rip currents. For location-specific information, visit weather.gov/beach/sju. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...YZR LONG TERM/MARINE/BEACH...MRR
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