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436
FXCA62 TJSJ 030849
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
449 AM AST Tue Mar 3 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 449 AM AST Tue Mar 3 2026

* Breezy to windy conditions are expected across the islands through
  the rest of the week. Unsecured items could blow around.

* Fresh to strong winds producing choppy to rough seas, are expected
  to continue across the offshore Atlantic and Caribbean Waters, as
  well as in the local passages, where Small Craft Advisories are in
  effect. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in
  hazardous conditions.

* A moderate risk of rip currents will persist through late Tuesday
  across most of the local beaches. A high rip current risk is
  forecast by early Wednesday for the northern and eastern beaches
  of the islands as a northeast to easterly swell arrives and breezy
  to windy conditions persist.

* ESE winds will gradually back to become more E to ENE tomorrow
  while steering patches of moisture and showers along with
  patches of drier air towards the islands. Low concentrations of
  Saharan Dust will continue to filter into the region.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Thursday)...
Issued at 449 AM AST Tue Mar 3 2026

A patch of moisture and cloudiness moved over the region during
the overnight hours under the up to breezy ESE steering flow. Since
midnight, radar estimated rainfall accumulations indicate 0.16 to
0.65 in over southeastern to eastern PR, and minimal accumulations
over southern St. Croix, St. John, southern PR and the western
half of PR. Stations over interior PR reported lows in the low to
mid 60s while stations over lower elevations of the islands
reported lows in the low to upper 70s.

A broad surface high pressure over the western to central Atlantic
will promote breezy to windy conditions during the short term period
as it tightens the local pressure gradient. This will promote a
limited to elevated wind risk over the islands, unsecured items
could blow around. Breezy to windy steering flow will gradually
back to become more easterly to east-northeasterly late tonight
and more east-northeasterly late tomorrow as the surface high
pressure continues to build over the western to central Atlantic
maintaining a tight pressure gradient. Breezy to windy conditions
will remain the dominant feature of the forecast.

These winds will continue to steer patches of moisture and drier
air towards the islands today. After the patch of moisture
currently over the region moves towards the Mona Passage early
this morning, current model guidance and satellite imagery
suggests another patch of moisture (with PWAT values up to around
1.2 to 1.4 in) moving over the islands later today. This pattern
will result fast- moving showers over the region, mainly over
windward areas of the islands during the overnight and morning
hours, and brief afternoon showers possibly developing over
western Puerto Rico. Most available moisture will remain mainly
below 850 mb. 500mb temperatures are forecast to remain
relatively warm, limiting vertical shower development. Therefore,
widespread flooding risks are not anticipated from the expected
weather conditions. However, current model guidance suggests broad
patches of moisture reaching the region late tonight into
tomorrow, Wednesday (with PWAT values up to 1.80 in), and by
Thursday morning (with PWAT values up to 1.70 in), under the E to
ENE breezy to windy steering flow. These patches can enhance the
the frequency of fast- moving showers over windward areas of the
islands, and promote the development of afternoon showers over
western Puerto Rico. 925 mb temperatures are forecast at normal
values during the period as winds back to become more E to ENE.
Low concentrations of Saharan Dust will continue to filter into
the region.

&&

.Long Term(Friday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 449 AM AST Tue Mar 3 2026

A broad and strong surface high pressure system over the western
Atlantic will remain the dominant feature through the weekend into
early next week, maintaining a tight local pressure gradient before
gradually shifting northeast. This pattern will support persistent
easterly winds with minor directional variations, ranging from
strong breeze to moderate gale at times based on Beaufort scale
equivalents. Aloft, a segment of the subtropical jet will extend
across the northeastern Caribbean early in the period, followed by a
short-wave trough approaching from the northeast. The trough is
expected to linger west of the area near Hispaniola, promoting
gradual cooling aloft and increasingly favorable upper-level
conditions into early next week. Moisture will remain somewhat
fragmented on Friday but will consolidate Friday night into the
weekend, with above-normal precipitable water lingering through
Monday before drier air filters in by Tuesday.

From a hazards perspective, breezy to windy conditions will remain
the primary concern, particularly across coastal and exposed areas,
contributing to hazardous marine and beach conditions. Although
periods of above-normal low-level moisture may increase the
frequency of passing showers, persistent mid-level dryness should
limit vertical development and rainfall efficiency. As a result,
showers are expected to be mostly fast-moving, with brief moderate
rainfall possible across windward areas during the overnight and
morning hours and isolated afternoon activity over interior and
western Puerto Rico. Widespread flooding is not anticipated;
however, localized ponding in poor drainage areas cannot be ruled
out. A gradual drying trend by Tuesday should further reduce shower
coverage, while breezy conditions and hazardous seas may persist.
Overall, wind and marine hazards will remain the dominant impacts
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 449 AM AST Tue Mar 3 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will continue. However periods of fast moving
trade wind VCSH/-SHRA will continue to affect the terminals at
times. Breezy to locally windy ESE flow, mainly at 12 to 20 kts
with higher gusts. Afternoon, between 03/16-23z, showers are
possible mainly over interior to W-NW Puerto Rico. Winds
decreasing after 01/23z to 5 to 15 kts with higher gusts while
gradually backing to become more E to ENE.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 449 AM AST Tue Mar 3 2026

A surface high-pressure system over the central Atlantic, along with
another building over the north western Atlantic, will promote fresh
to locally strong east to northeasterly winds throughout the
forecast period. These conditions will maintain choppy to rough seas.
Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the offshore Atlantic and
Caribbean waters, the Mona Passage, and the Anegada Passage. Small
craft operators should exercise caution across all coastal waters and
continue to monitor the forecast for any update or adjustments.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 449 AM AST Tue Mar 3 2026

A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents is in effect today
for most local beaches due to breezy to windy coastal conditions.
Similar conditions are expected on Tuesday. By Wednesday and
continuing into next weekend, beach conditions are forecast to
deteriorate further, increasing the likelihood of life-threatening
rip currents. Confused seas driven by strong trade winds, combined
with the arrival of a northeast to easterly wind swell, will likely
elevate the risk to high for the northern and eastern beaches of the
islands. For additional information and location-specific rip
current details, please visit: weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Friday for AMZ711-723-733-
     741.

     Small Craft Advisory from noon Wednesday to 6 AM AST Friday for
     AMZ712.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES...MRR
LONG TERM...ICP
MARINE/BEACH FORECAST...YZR

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion