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579
FXCA62 TJSJ 301700
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
100 PM AST Fri Jan 30 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 100 PM AST Fri Jan 30 2026

* Flood risk increases from Saturday into early next week, with
  urban and small stream flooding possible and isolated flash
  flooding where heavy rain persists.

* Marine and beach hazards are possible at times through the
  weekend, with moderate rip current risk through Saturday and
  locally high risk possible Saturday night. Dangerous to life-
  threatening marine and surf zone conditions are expected to
  return Monday into midweek due to a long-period northerly swell,
  along with high surf and minor coastal flooding possible.

* Breezy to locally windy conditions late tonight into Saturday
  may cause localized wind-related hazards, especially across
  exposed coastal areas of the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern
  Puerto Rico.

* Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the weekend into early
  next week, bringing localized lightning and brief gusty winds.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 100 PM AST Fri Jan 30 2026

A weak trough moved across the region today, bringing a patch of
moisture that produced isolated to scattered showers, mainly
across eastern Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and the local
islands, with activity dissipating by late morning. Rainfall
totals were generally around one quarter of an inch across eastern
Puerto Rico, with lesser amounts elsewhere. Thereafter, daytime
heating and local effects led to increased cloudiness across
Puerto Rico and showers developing downwind of the local islands.
Minimum temperatures were cooler than recent days, dropping into
the mid-50s across higher elevations and the mid-60s along coastal
areas, while maximum temperatures reached the mid-80s across
Puerto Rico and the mid to upper 80s to near 90 across the U.S.
Virgin Islands and local islands. Winds were generally easterly,
with sea-breeze variations and sustained speeds around 1216 mph,
along with occasional higher gusts.

Tonight, the trough will continue lifting northeast, allowing
near-normal moisture and typical trade-wind showers to persist
overnight, mainly across windward areas and surrounding waters.
Moderate southeasterly trade winds will strengthen, becoming
locally fresh, and will help advect a wetter-than-normal airmass
from the southeastern Caribbean. By late tonight, precipitable
water values are expected to increase to well above normal,
supporting more frequent showers, mainly over the local waters,
with activity moving inland across southern and eastern Puerto
Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and nearby islands. Flood risk
tonight remains limited and localized, mainly where showers
persist or repeat. Strengthening winds may lead to minor wind-
related hazards, particularly across more exposed areas of the
U.S. Virgin Islands and the local islands. Overnight lows will be
warmer than previous nights, remaining in the lower 60s across
higher elevations, the mid-70s across coastal and lower
elevations, and the upper 70s in more exposed coastal areas.

From Saturday into Sunday, a moisture-rich environment is expected
to persist as the region remains positioned between weather
features to the west and a ridge to the east, favoring a moisture-
trapping pattern. This setup will support periods of scattered to
numerous showers, with a few isolated thunderstorms possible given
marginal instability. Winds may be breezy at times on Saturday,
posing a limited wind-related hazard risk, especially across
exposed coastal areas and higher elevations, then weaken and
become more variable late Saturday into Sunday, which may allow
for slower-moving showers. As a result, flood risk is expected to
range from limited to elevated, with urban and small stream
flooding possible and isolated flash flooding where rainfall
persists or repeats. Maximum temperatures are expected to be near
normal on Saturday, with slightly warmer conditions possible on
Sunday, while overnight lows remain fairly uniform due to
persistent cloud cover.

&&

.Long Term(Monday through next Thursday)...
Issued at 100 PM AST Fri Jan 30 2026

An unsettled and wet pattern will persist through the long-term
period as a frontal boundary approaches the region. This boundary,
combined with tropical moisture drawn from South America and the
Caribbean, will enhance instability and rainfall potential through
the end of the workweek. Recent global model runs suggest
precipitable water values will remain well above seasonal
climatological norms, ranging between 2.00 and 2.25 inches for
most of the period.

At the upper levels, the forecast remains on track. An upper-
level trough is positioned over the western Atlantic, while a
ridge stays to the east-southeast of the local area through late
Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Under this scenario, the
combination of upper-level dynamics and persistent low-level
moisture convergence along the frontal boundary will support
widespread rainfall and the possibility of thunderstorms starting
Monday.

As the front moves closer, winds will shift from a south-
southwest component to a north-northeasterly flow by Monday night.
This pattern will persist through at least Thursday, at which
point winds will become more easterly as the frontal boundary
begins to exit the region.

The latest model guidance continues to suggest a wet start to the
workweek, with Monday and Tuesday expected to be the most active
days. This activity is driven by the frontal passage and moisture
influx from the Caribbean, combined with daytime heating and local
orographic effects. Currently, there is an elevated flooding
potential across portions of northern and western Puerto Rico on
Monday, shifting to eastern and southern Puerto Rico, Culebra, and
Vieques by Tuesday. For the U.S. Virgin Islands, the risk remains
limited at this time.

Residents and visitors should closely monitor weather conditions
next week, particularly if planning outdoor activities. Stay
informed!

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 100 PM AST Fri Jan 30 2026

Mainly VFR early. Diurnal heating/local effects may bring SHRA
near TJSJ/TJBQ this aftn. Incr mstr and llvl cnvg will lead to
more freq SHRA late tngt into Sat, affecting TJPS, TJSJ, and USVI
TAF sites, with brief MVFR and minor ops impacts psbl aft 31/10Z.
Isold TSRA psbl as activity spreads acrs the area aft 31/10Z. Aft
31/16Z, SHRA may affect most/all TAF sites. ESE winds 1015 kt
with sea-breeze vrblty and ocnl higher gusts near SHRA, weakening
ovrngt, then incr again Sat with sust winds arnd 1418 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 100 PM AST Fri Jan 30 2026

Moderate east to southeasterly winds will continue to veer to the
southeast and strengthen to locally fresh late tonight into
Saturday. These strengthening winds will lead to hazardous
conditions for small craft, particularly across the Atlantic
waters, where Small Craft Advisories are expected to go into
effect Saturday morning. Winds are forecast to gradually ease late
Saturday into Sunday; however, a long-period northerly swell is
expected to arrive, building seas to around 10 feet late Sunday
into midweek. In addition, an unsettled weather pattern will bring
more frequent showers and a few isolated thunderstorms, which
could locally create hazardous marine conditions or exacerbate
existing hazards.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 100 PM AST Fri Jan 30 2026

Rip current risk will remain moderate tonight through Saturday as
weak northerly swell pulses persist. As east to southeasterly
winds strengthen and peak Saturday night, high rip current risk
may briefly return for some exposed north- and northeast-facing
beaches. Conditions are expected to improve slightly on Sunday,
with rip current risk trending back to moderate.

A stronger, long-period northerly to north-northwesterly swell is
forecast to arrive Monday and persist through the workweek, which
is expected to increase rip current risk to high again, while also
raising the potential for high surf and minor coastal flooding,
especially during the peak of the event Monday into Tuesday across
exposed Atlantic and northwestern coastlines. Beachgoers are
urged to monitor future forecasts as conditions evolve. &&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001-002-
     005-008-010-012.

VI...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for VIZ001.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM AST Sunday for
     AMZ711.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ICP

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion