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536
FXCA62 TJSJ 220641
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
241 AM AST Sun Feb 22 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 230 AM AST Sun Feb 22 2026

* East to southeast winds will bring passing showers to windward
  areas through Monday, with isolated afternoon showers possible
  across interior and western Puerto Rico.

* There is a moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents along
  the north and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S
  Virgin Islands.

* Sunny skies and southeasterly winds will promote near to above
  normal temperatures across the lower elevations of the islands.

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, breezy condition and passing
  showers are expected during the morning and early afternoon
  hours.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Tuesday)...
Issued at 230 AM AST Sun Feb 22 2026

Mostly clear skies prevailed across the islands during the overnight
and early morning hours. Showers were noted mainly across the local
waters. Minimum temperatures were from the upper 50s across the
higher elevations of Puerto Rico to the low 70s across the lower
elevations of the islands. The wind was from the east at 10 mph or
less. A drier air mass will continue to filter over PR during the
morning hours, and mostly sunny skies are expected to prevail.
However, across the U.S. Virgin Islands, an area of low-level clouds
with scattered showers currently over the Leeward Islands, will
promote partly sunny skies and quick passing showers through the
early afternoon hours.

A low-to mid-level ridge will move over the region today, promoting
fair weather conditions across the islands in general. This ridge
will continue to move eastward into the central Atlantic by Tuesday,
and similar weather conditions are expected on Monday, as overall
drier air with PWAT content btw 1-1.25 inches and stable conditions
aloft prevail over the northeastern Caribbean. Meanwhile, winds will
gradually shift from the southeast through at least early Tuesday,
when a col area and pre-frontal trough develops over the local area.
This will bring a significant surge in moisture content compared to
previous days, as PWAT increases to 1.75 inches, and the associated
upper level trough promotes colder 500 mb temps near -9C. Therefore,
expect showers to increase in coverage and intensity, with possible
isolated thunderstorm development.

High temperatures are expected to range from the upper 80s to low
90s across the lower elevations of the islands, to the mid 70s
across the higher elevations. Minimum temperatures under mostly
clear skies are expected to range from the upper 50s across the
higher elevations of PR, to the upper 60s and low 70s across the
lower elevations. Breezy conditions are expected today with east
to southeast winds ranging between 15 and 20 mph. Lighter winds
are expected on Tuesday, with with sea/land breezes dominating the
flow.

&&

.Long Term(Wednesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 230 AM AST Sun Feb 22 2026

Unstable conditions are expected at the beginning of the long-term
period as a pre-frontal trough associated with an approaching
frontal boundary moves northwest of the area and north of
Hispaniola. By Wednesday, the surface influence of the frontal band
will persist, bringing abundant moisture and cloudiness into the
region with precipitable water values rounding in the 1.7 inches.
At the upper and mid-levels, a 65-knot jet streak aloft and mid-
level temperatures between -8 and -9 C will further enhance
atmospheric instability. As a result, widespread cloudiness is
expected across northern Puerto Rico, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin
Islands, with thunderstorm activity possible within the heaviest
showers. From Thursday into Friday, lingering moisture associated
with the remnants of the frontal boundary will remain in place;
however, high pressure over the central Atlantic will gradually
become the dominant weather feature. As this high strengthens and
extends into the Caribbean, the pressure gradient will tighten,
leading to moderate to locally strong easterly winds from Thursday
through Sunday. Although shower activity will continue, faster
steering flow will promote quick-moving showers with minimal
rainfall accumulations, and no flood threat is anticipated.

From Saturday into Sunday, a more stable weather pattern will return
to the local area as the surface high strengthens over the Central
Atlantic and a mid-to upper-level ridge becomes established
across the region. Although moisture associated with the previous
frontal boundary will have moved out of the area, wind-advected
cloudiness and patches of moisture driven by a strong pressure
gradient across the Central Atlantic will continue to reach the
islands. Model guidance suggests precipitable water values may
surpass the 75th percentile during this period, supporting a
showery pattern despite the generally stable regime. As a result,
breezy to locally windy conditions are expected under a persistent
easterly wind flow, with fast-moving trade wind showers affecting
windward portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto
Rico during the early morning hours, followed by afternoon
convection across the interior and western Puerto Rico. This
pattern of breezy conditions and passing showers is expected to
persist through the end of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 230 AM AST Sun Feb 22 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals
during the next 24 hours. Mostly VCSH expected across the area
terminals throughout the day. East-southeast winds increasing
between 12 and 16 kt with stronger gusts and sea breeze variations
aft 22/14z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 AM AST Sun Feb 22 2026

A surface high pressure over the central Atlantic will maintain
moderate to locally fresh east to east-southeast winds across the
regional waters through today. Winds will gradually shift from the
southeast and south on Monday and Tuesday ahead of an approaching
frontal boundary. By late Tuesday into Wednesday, the arrival of the
front will increase shower activity, with few to isolated
thunderstorms possible. A long-period north-northwest swell is
expected to move into the local Atlantic waters by the middle of
next week, deteriorating marine conditions and building seas up to
8 feet through the later part of the week. Mariners should
monitor later forecasts for updates on increasing seas and
changing weather conditions.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 230 AM AST Sun Feb 22 2026

The rip current risk is moderate across most local beaches of
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, except along the south to
southwest coast of PR, where the risk remains low. Similar
beach/rip current conditions are expected to persist through at
least Tuesday.

A long-period northwesterly swell arrive across the local waters,
deteriorating coastal conditions by Wednesday. This swell will
result in life-threathening rip currents along the northern coasts
of the islands. Beachgoers and unexperienced surfers are urged to
stay out of the water, continue monitoring forecast updates, and
follow all local advisories, warnings, and lifeguard and official
guidance. For more specific location information, visit:
weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSR
LONG TERM....GRS
AVIATION...DSR
MARINE/BEACH...LIS/DSR

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion