National Weather Service Today's Weather Impact Levels

398
FXCA62 TJSJ 181840
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
240 PM AST Wed Feb 18 2026

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 240 PM AST Wed Feb 18 2026

* Hazardous marine and coastal conditions will develop tomorrow,
  Thursday and continue into Friday, as a long-period northerly
  swell spreads across the Atlantic waters and local Caribbean
  passages. Small Craft Advisories and High Rip Current Risk
  statements are in effect, and a High Surf Advisory cannot be
  ruled out.

* By the latter part of the week, a mostly stable pattern is
  expected, as drier air will dominate across the region. However,
  localized brief afternoon showers will remain possible,
  particularly across western interior Puerto Rico.

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, brief passing showers will
  continue mainly during the nighttime and early morning hours,
  followed by generally fair weather conditions each afternoon.

* Above-normal temperatures are expected during the upcoming days.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 240 PM AST Wed Feb 18 2026

Mostly sunny skies were observed across Puerto Rico during the
morning hours, while cloudy to partly sunny skies prevailed across
the U.S. Virgin Islands. Passing showers persisted over St. Croix,
where the Doppler radar estimated near a quarter of an inch of rain.
For the rest of this afternoon, locally induced showers with
isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop over portions of the
interior and western PR. Urban and small stream flooding, as well as
minor landslides are possible across these areas. Across the USVI,
fair weather conditions are expected to prevail in St. Thomas and
St. John, while passing showers continue over St. Croix. High
temperatures were from the mid-to upper-80s across the lower
elevations of the islands to the upper 70s and mid-80s across the
higher elevations. Winds were from the east up to 10 mph with higher
gusts at times and sea breeze variations across the western and
southern coast of PR.

A drying trend is expected to prevail on Thursday and Friday, as a
low-to mid-level ridge builds over the region from the west. This
will cause warmer 500 mb temps of around -5C, and in turn promote
more stable conditions. Plenty of drier air will also be present,
and the precipitable water content is expected to bottom out around
1 inch or less each morning. Therefore, fair weather conditions are
expected to prevail in general across all the islands, with limited
shower development, if any.

The main hazard through the end of the short-term period will be the
life-threatening rip currents along the northern beaches of PR,
Culebra, St. Thomas, and St. John.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 427 AM AST Wed Feb 18 2026

No major changes to the long term forecast. To start the weekend,
east to southeast flow will bring patches of moisture towards the
islands with Precipitable Water (PWAT values) up to seasonal to
slightly above normal for this time of the year. Patches of drier
air will also filter into the area during the weekend. A Surface
high over the southwestern to central Atlantic will persist during
the weekend along with mid level ridging. These will promote warm
500 mb temperatures, sinking air, and stability aloft. Overnight and
morning shower activity over windward sectors of the islands and
afternoon showers over sectors of the interior to W-NW PR, as well
as lines of showers from the local islands and el Yunque are
possible. However, under this pattern, this activity should remain
limited without much vertical extent (most available moisture should
remain below 800 mb). Although this pattern will persist to start
the workweek, uncertainty remains for Tuesday and into midweek as a
deep-layered trough can move near and over the area and result in
more unstable conditions. Seasonal to above seasonal 925 mb
temperatures are forecast for the long term period, particularly to
start the next workweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 240 PM AST Wed Feb 18 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals
during the next 24 hours. However, -TSRA in and around TJPS may
cause tempo MVFR conds btw 18/19-22z. At TISX, -RA and BKN cigs btw
FL025-040 should end around 18/20z. The 18/12z TJSJ sounding
indicated ENE winds up to 12 kt blo FL090.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 240 PM AST Wed Feb 18 2026

A surface high pressure building over the Western Atlantic will
promote light to moderate easterly winds through the latter part of
the week. A long-period northerly swell is expected to arrive late
tonight into early Thursday morning and spread across the local
waters and passages. Combined with strengthening winds, choppy to
rough seas are likely, particularly across the Atlantic waters,
resulting in hazardous seas for small craft.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 240 PM AST Wed Feb 18 2026

A long-period northerly swell will reach the Atlantic beaches of the
islands during the next few days. This swell is expected to produce
large breaking waves between 6 and 12 feet, particularly from late
Thursday to Friday. High surf conditions and life-threatening rip
currents are expected along the northwest to northeast coasts of PR,
Culebra, and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands. A Rip Current
Statement is in effect for these areas, and a High Surf Advisory
could be issued later tonight or tomorrow.

Beachgoers and unexperienced surfers are urged to stay out of the
water, continue monitoring forecast updates, and follow all local
advisories, warnings, and guidance from lifeguards and local
officials as conditions deteriorate.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk from Thursday morning through late Friday
     night for PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012.

VI...High Rip Current Risk from Thursday morning through late Friday
     night for VIZ001.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to midnight AST Friday
     night for AMZ711-712.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/AVIATION/BEACH...DS
LONG TERM...MRR
KEY MESSAGES...YZR

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion