National Weather Service Today's Weather Impact Levels

211
FXCA62 TJSJ 040848
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
448 AM AST Wed Mar 4 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 448 AM AST Wed Mar 4 2026

* Breezy to windy conditions will persist across the islands through
  at least early next week. Unsecured items could blow around.

* Fresh to strong winds will result in choppy to rough seas across
  the offshore and nearshore Atlantic and Caribbean Waters, and the
  local passages. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for those
  areas. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in hazardous
  conditions.

* A High Risk of Rip Currents is in effect for most northern beaches
  of Puerto Rico and for St. Croix through the rest of the workweek
  and into next weekend. Up to a moderate risk of rip currents
  elsewhere.

* E to ENE winds will continue steering patches of moisture will
  over the islands, producing passing showers from time to time.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Friday)...
Issued at 448 AM AST Wed Mar 4 2026

Satellite derived precipitable water (PWAT) values indicate a
patch of moisture approaching the region under breezy ENE steering
flow. PWAT values over the region indicate a range of 0.9 in over
SW PR (due to a patch of drier air that moved over the region) to
1.26 in over St. Thomas and St. John. The approaching moisture
patch and breezy flow has promoted fast-moving showers over
northern, central and eastern PR, with radar estimated
accumulations since midnight indicating a quarter of an inch over
some areas. Isolated sectors of St. Croix received minimal
accumulations. Stations over interior PR reported lows in the low
to mid 60s. Stations over lower elevations of southwestern,
southern and southeastern PR have reported lows in the mid 60s to
low 70s. Other stations over lower elevations of the islands
reported lows in the 70s. Several coastal and lower elevation
stations over windward sectors have reported max wind gusts in the
20s since midnight.

Breezy to windy conditions will remain the dominant feature of
the forecast. A broad surface highs over the western to central
Atlantic will continue to promote breezy to windy E to ENE flow
(becoming more ENE as the workweek progresses) during the short
term period as they tighten the local pressure gradient. This will
promote a limited to elevated wind risk over the islands,
unsecured items could blow around. As the upcoming patch of
moisture reaches the region, it will push PWAT values to above
normal today with model guidance indicating 1.60 to 1.7 inches,
possibly higher over western PR this afternoon. This pattern will
result fast-moving showers over the region, mainly over windward
areas of the islands during the overnight and morning hours, and
afternoon showers developing over western Puerto Rico. Up to a
limited flooding risk persists for those areas. Most available
moisture will remain mainly below 850 mb and 500mb temperatures
will remain relatively warm, limiting vertical shower development.
Breezy to windy ENE flow will continue to steer patches of more
humid and drier air towards the islands. Isolated bands of low
concentrations of Saharan Dust will also continue to filter into
the region. Model guidance suggests more broad patches of moist
air moving over the islands overnight Thursday to Thursday night
and Friday night into the long term period, with intermittent
patches of drier and moist air arriving in between. These broad
patches of moisture in particular, will promote up to above normal
PWAT values over the region, with up to around 1.7 to 1.8 in.
These patches can enhance the the frequency of fast-moving showers
over windward areas of the islands, mainly during the overnight
and morning hours, and promote the development of afternoon
showers over W-SW Puerto Rico. 925 mb temperatures are forecast at
normal values during the period under the breezy to windy ENE
flow.

&&

.Long Term(Saturday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 448 AM AST Wed Mar 4 2026

A broad and strong surface high pressure system over the western
Atlantic will remain the dominant feature through early next week
while gradually shifting northeast. This pattern will maintain a
tight local pressure gradient across the northeastern Caribbean,
supporting persistent easterly winds with minor directional
variations. Based on Beaufort scale equivalents, winds will
generally range from strong breeze to near gale at times,
particularly across coastal waters and exposed areas over the
weekend. Aloft, a segment of the subtropical jet will extend across
the region, followed by an approaching short-wave trough that is
forecast to linger to the west over Hispaniola, promoting gradual
cooling aloft and somewhat more favorable upper-level conditions.

Moisture will remain above normal for this time of year, keeping the
forecast on the wetter side of climatology through the period.
However, persistent mid-level dryness should continue to limit
vertical development and rainfall efficiency. As a result, shower
activity will mainly consist of fast-moving trade wind showers, with
brief periods of moderate rainfall possible across windward areas
overnight and during the morning hours, followed by isolated
afternoon activity across interior and western Puerto Rico. Breezy
to windy conditions will remain the primary hazard, contributing to
hazardous marine and beach conditions, while only localized ponding
in poor drainage areas is expected where showers persist.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 448 AM AST Wed Mar 4 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected to continue. Breezy to locally
windy E to ENE flow, mainly at 15 to 25 kts with higher gusts at
20 to 30 kts, and backing to become more ENE. Winds decreasing
after 04/23z to 5 to 15 kts with higher gusts. Periods of fast
moving trade wind VCSH/-SHRA will continue to affect
TJSJ/TISX/TIST/TJBQ, promoting brief MVFR conditions. Afternoon,
between 04/16-23z, showers are possible mainly over interior to NW
Puerto Rico.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 448 AM AST Wed Mar 4 2026

A series of high pressure systems across the Atlantic, will
promote fresh to locally strong east-northeasterly winds
throughout the forecast period. These conditions will maintain
choppy to rough seas. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for
most offshore and coastal waters and local Caribbean Passages at
least through late Friday night. Additionally, a patch of moisture
will increase the frequency of showers, particularly across the
Atlantic waters today. Inexperienced mariners, especially those
operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous
conditions.


&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 448 AM AST Wed Mar 4 2026

A high risk of life-threatening rip currents is in effect today for
the northern and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico and St. Croix due to
breezy to windy coastal conditions and a small northeast wind swell.
This high risk is expected to persist through the rest of the
workweek and into next weekend. Beachgoers should heed the advice of
lifeguards, as well as beach patrol flags and posted signs.

For the remaining areas, a moderate risk will prevail, meaning that
life-threatening rip currents are still possible in the surf zone.
Beachgoers should continue to exercise caution. For additional
information and location-specific rip current details, please visit:
weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for PRZ001-002-
     005-008.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for VIZ002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Saturday for AMZ711-716-723-
     726-733-741.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Saturday for AMZ712.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Friday for AMZ735.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES...MRR
LONG TERM...ICP
MARINE/BEACH FORECAST...YZR

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion