National Weather Service Today's Weather Impact Levels

479
FXCA62 TJSJ 151630
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1230 PM AST Sun Feb 15 2026

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1230 PM AST Sun Feb 15 2026

* An elevated risk of urban and small stream flooding is expected
  along the interior and southwestern sections of Puerto Rico.
  Avoid visiting rivers and driving along flooded roadways.

* Showers will continue tonight across the U.S. Virgin Islands,
  and over portions of eastern PR. Ponding of water on roadways
  and low-lying areas is anticipated with this activity.

* Hazardous seas for small craft expected across the offshore
  Atlantic waters through Monday

* Life-threatening rip currents expected to continue along the
  northern beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra, St. Thomas and St.
  John.

&&

.Short Term(This afternoon through Tuesday)...
Issued at 1230 PM AST Sun Feb 15 2026

A lingering frontal boundary over the region brought showers and
weak thunderstorms early in the morning hours across the northern
half of Puerto Rico. The Doppler radar estimated between 2 and 4
inches of rain with this rainfall activity. Across the U.S.
Virgin Islands, an increase in cloudiness and showers was noted
during the day, with estimated rainfall accumulations up to half
an inch, and mainly in St. Thomas. For the rest of the afternoon
hours, additional showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected
to develop over the Cordillera Central and portions of south-
southwest Puerto Rico. Therefore, the flood threat will remain
elevated in general for Puerto Rico through at least this evening,
as moisture associated to the front remains over the area. High
temperatures were from the upper 70s to the low 80s across the
lower elevations to the upper 60s and low 70s across the higher
elevations.

Behind the front, a surface high pressure is expected to move over
the central Atlantic by Monday, and winds will gradually turn east
to southeast through Tuesday. A weak upper level ridge will
promote somewhat stable conditions early in the week, and drier
air intrusion at the mid-levels. Dew point depressions at the
lower levels are expected to suppress convective development.
However, trade wind showers will move at times during the night
across the windward areas of the islands, and locally induced
afternoon showers cannot be ruled out over west/southwest PR each
day. The southerly winds will bring warmer than normal
temperatures, particularly on Tuesday.

&&

.Long Term(Wednesday through next Sunday)...

From previous discussion issued at 222 AM AST Sun Feb 15 2026

The long-term period will begin with a passing upper-level short-
wave trough and associated zonal jet support moving across the
region. This feature will briefly promote slightly cooler-than-
normal mid-level temperatures and modest instability early in the
period. However, moisture will remain shallow and largely confined
below 700 mb, with persistent dry air aloft limiting vertical
development. By late week, deep-layer high pressure will build,
gradually stabilizing conditions. As this high strengthens and
shifts eastward through the weekend into early next week, the local
pressure gradient will tighten before relaxing, resulting in
strengthening easterly winds that later veer to the southeast and
weaken. Mid-level temperatures will warm back to near normal by late
week and trend slightly above normal at times early next week, while
low-level temperatures respond to the developing southeasterly flow
with a gradual warming trend.

In terms of hazards and sensible weather, shower activity will
remain limited throughout the period due to shallow moisture and a
persistent trade wind inversion. Expect mainly brief overnight and
morning trade-wind showers across eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands, followed by isolated afternoon convection over
interior and western Puerto Rico. Flooding concerns are expected to
remain low given limited moisture depth and dry mid-level
conditions. The primary hazard focus will shift to wind-related
impacts late in the week and over the weekend, as fresh to locally
strong easterly winds promote breezy periods across coastal and
elevated areas. Early next week, winds will veer to the southeast
and gradually weaken, while above-normal temperatures become more
likely under continued generally stable conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM AST Sun Feb 15 2026

Frontal boundary across the region will continue to result in
intermittent periods of -SHRA and BKN cigs over the local
terminals. Max tops are currently around 15 kft. However, TSRA is
expected to develop btw 15/18-22z over portions of the Cordillera
and SW PR, which could impact operations at TJPS. The 15/12z TJSJ
sounding indicated NE winds up to 21 kt blo FL100.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1230 PM AST Sun Feb 15 2026

A cold front over the northeast Caribbean will promote moderate to
locally fresh northeast to east-northeast winds through at least
Monday. This front will result in increasing cloud cover and rain
chances as well as isolated thunderstorms. A long-period northerly
swell will spread across the Atlantic waters and passages through
early Monday morning, building seas up to 7 feet across the offshore
Atlantic waters. A surface high pressure over the central Atlantic
will then promote east to southeast winds through midweek. Another
long-period northerly swell will arrive during the second part of
the workweek, bringing hazardous seas once again by Thursday.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 1230 PM AST Sun Feb 15 2026

A High Rip Current Risk is now in effect for the north facing
beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra, St. Thomas, and St. John. This is
due to life-threatening rip currents caused by the combination of
the increasing northeasterly winds and a northerly swell. Beach
goers are urged to exercise caution, and avoid swimming in beaches
without lifeguards. Also, isolated thunderstorms are expected to
develop this afternoon over portions of the southwestern coast of
PR, increasing the risk of cloud to ground lightning and brief
gusty winds.

Seas and winds are expected to improve gradually on Monday, and a
moderate risk of rip currents expected along the north and east
facing beaches of the islands.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ001-002-005-
     008-010-012.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for VIZ001.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until noon AST Monday for AMZ711.

&&

$$

DSR

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion