National Weather Service Today's Weather Impact Levels

374
FXCA62 TJSJ 141923
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
323 PM AST Sat Mar 14 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 318 PM AST Sat Mar 14 2026

* Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will develop across the
  interior and southwestern municipalities of Puerto Rico, leading
  to ponding on roadways and minor flooding in poorly drained
  areas, which could affect motorists.

* Increasing winds will transport additional moisture across the
  US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late tonight, increasing the
  likelihood of passing showers on Sunday.

* Breezy to windy conditions from Sunday into early next week
  will create hazardous marine and coastal conditions across
  Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. Small Craft Advisories
  and a High Risk of Rip Currents are in effect for many local
  waters and beaches.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Monday)...
Issued at 318 PM AST Sat Mar 14 2026

Mostly sunny skies with little to no rainfall were observed this
morning across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, although a
few showers affected the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto
Rico. By the afternoon, showers developed across the mountainous
interior and southwestern Puerto Rico. Winds were mainly from the
east to east-northeast at 15 to 20 mph, with gusts between 25 and
35 mph. Maximum temperatures ranged from the mid- to upper 80s
along the coast to the lower 80s across the mountains.

For this afternoon and tonight, showers are expected across the
interior and southwestern quadrant of Puerto Rico, where ponding
of water in poorly drained areas is possible. Meanwhile, mostly
sunny conditions with little to no rainfall are expected across
the U.S. Virgin Islands.

A mid-level high pressure will promote somewhat stable conditions
across the northeastern Caribbean. At the surface, a strong high
pressure over the western Atlantic, and another high pressure
moving eastward across the same region by Monday, will tighten the
pressure gradient, generating breezy to windy conditions across
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through the short-term
period.

Under this pattern, a trade wind perturbation is expected to
arrive on Sunday, promoting showery weather mainly across windward
areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands from the early
morning to the afternoon hours. By Sunday evening, another pocket
of drier air will move into the region, limiting rainfall
activity. However, additional moisture surges will bring
occasional showers on Monday, along with limited afternoon
convection across western Puerto Rico.

The primary hazards during this period will be wind-related
conditions, resulting in breezy to windy conditions, particularly
across the U.S. Virgin Islands and the coastal areas of Puerto
Rico on Sunday and Monday.

&&

.Long Term(Tuesday through next Friday)...
Issued at 318 PM AST Sat Mar 14 2026

A broad high pressure will be present over the central Atlantic to
start the long term period, and will result in breezy to windy E to
ESE winds. Wind speeds at 925 mb will be above normal to start the
period, resulting in breezy to locally windy conditions. Unsecured
items could blow around. Up to an elevated wind risk is forecast to
start the long term period for coastal areas. As low pressure
systems move into the western Atlantic and continue displacing the
broad high eastward, the pressure gradient will gradually relax over
our region during the second half of the week, a limited wind risk
is still forecast at least through Thursday. Winds will continue
mainly from the E to ESE through the period. Mid-level atmospheric
conditions are expected to remain generally stable throughout the
forecast period. Model guidance indicates that 700500 mb lapse
rates will be below normal to low end normal values, with 500 mb
temperatures remaining near their climatological normals to slightly
above normal. While an upper-level trough may develop northeast of
the area during the period, its main instability will largely bypass
the local region. As a result, conditions will be marginally stable,
which will limit the development of deep convection and instead
favor shallow trade wind showers. Despite this, the breezy to windy
E to ESE flow will steer showers and shallow moisture patches toward
windward areas. Shallow moisture patches arriving over the islands
will keep precipitable water (PWAT) values around normal but with a
general drying trend, with some variability linked to the moist and
dry patches. This will result in passing showers across windward
areas, particularly during the overnight and morning hours across
eastern PR and the USVI. Diurnal heating, sea breeze convergence and
local effects will fuel afternoon convective showers over the
interior to western and northwestern PR, as well as lines of showers
developing from the local islands. Although the fast steering flow
will limit rainfall accumulations, ponding of water is possible on
roads and in poorly drained areas. 925 mb temperatures will stay
near normal but will be on a general warming trend due to less cloud
cover and the E to ESE flow. Patchy fog is possible in interior
sectors of PR during the overnight hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 318 PM AST Sat Mar 14 2026

VFR conditions will persist across all TAF sites during the period.
VCSH to -RA is expected at TJSJ, TIST, and TJBQ through 14/23Z.
Winds will remain from the E up to 15 knots with gusty winds up to
25 knots. Winds will diminish at 14/23Z, increasing again at 15/14Z up
to 15 knots and increasing up to 18 knots mostly across TISX, TIST &
TJSJ. VCSH are expected along most of the east sites from 15/15Z to
15/18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 318 PM AST Sat Mar 14 2026

A strong surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will
maintain fresh to strong easterly winds, resulting in choppy to
rough seas across the regional waters. Another high pressure
moving off the eastern seaboard will tighten the local pressure
gradient and maintain hazardous marine conditions.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 318 PM AST Sat Mar 14 2026

There is a moderate risk of rip currents today across most of the
northern exposed beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands. Increasing easterly winds will create favorable
conditions for the development of rip currents along many local
beaches. Beachgoers are urged to exercise caution, particularly
near jetties, rocks, and other structures.

From Sunday into early next week, coastal conditions are expected to
deteriorate gradually. Strengthening easterly winds will generate
choppy to rough seas across the regional waters, increasing wave
action along exposed beaches. As a result, the risk of rip currents
is expected to increase to high levels along many exposed beaches
of the islands by Monday.

Beachgoers should remain alert to changing coastal conditions and
continue monitoring the latest forecasts and statements. For
additional information, please visit: weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk from Sunday morning through late Monday
     night for PRZ001>003-005-008-012-013.

VI...High Rip Current Risk from Sunday morning through late Monday
     night for VIZ001-002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 2 AM AST Wednesday for
     AMZ711-723.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Monday to 2 AM AST Wednesday for
     AMZ733.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAM
LONG TERM....LIS
AVIATION...ICP

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion