National Weather Service Today's Weather Impact Levels

209
FXCA62 TJSJ 061807
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
207 PM AST Thu Nov 6 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1102 AM AST Thu Nov 6 2025

* The risk of rip currents along the north-facing beaches of Puerto
  Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands is expected to increase from late
  tonight into Friday as a northerly swell spreads across the local
  waters.

* Urban and small stream flooding is expected over western PR each
  afternoon.

* Fair weather is expected across the U.S. Virgin Islands today,
  with a few brief passing showers.

* A tropical wave will increase shower and thunderstorm activity
  across all the islands on Sunday.

&&

.Short Term(This afternoon through Saturday)...
Issued at 102 PM AST Thu Nov 6 2025

Sunny to partly cloudy skies prevailed across Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands today. Passing showers were observed at times
across the local waters and over portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands
and across eastern Puerto Rico during the morning hours. For this
afternoon, shower and thunderstorm development is expected over
western Puerto Rico, this activity may cause urban and small stream
flooding. High temperatures were from the mid-80s to low-90s across
the lower elevations of the islands to the upper 70s and mid-80s 90s
across the higher elevations. The wind was from the east around 15
to 20 mph with gusts around 25 mph along coastal areas.

A mid-level ridge pattern will continue to dominate the region,
though a gradual weakening is expected as an upper-level trough
prevails south of the area. At the surface, a front north of the
area will dissipate while a high-pressure system moves into the
central Atlantic. This surface high will maintain an east-southeast
wind flow, advecting patches of moisture across the islands from
time to time, particularly during the nighttime, when showers are
expected to move over the USVI and eastern PR. However, minor
accumulations are expected in general; and locally induced afternoon
showers are expected to develop across western Puerto Rico each
day.

The prevailing east-southeast wind flow will support slightly above-
normal temperatures at the 925 mb level, particularly on Friday.
These conditions mainly affect individuals who are highly sensitive
to heat, especially those spending extended periods outdoors without
proper cooling or hydration.

&&

.Long Term(Sunday through next Thursday)...
Issued at 308 AM AST Thu Nov 6 2025

The inherited forecast remains unchanged. On Sunday, the main feature
will be the presence of a tropical wave moving across the
Caribbean waters, bringing a surge of deep tropical moisture over
the region. Precipitable water values are forecast to increase to
around 2.00 to 2.25 inches, which is above the climatological
average for this time of year. In addition, the latest model
guidance indicates that temperatures in the 500 mb layer will
decrease to around -7 degrees Celsius, suggesting mid-level
instability that will enhance vertical development of convection.
As a result, scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. Virgin Islands and the
eastern and southern portions of Puerto Rico, spreading inland
throughout the day. With the combination of abundant moisture and
instability, a limited to elevated flooding risk is possible,
particularly across areas that experience persistent or heavy
rainfall.

In the wake of the tropical wave, residual moisture will persist
across the region, resulting in scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms throughout the day. Although overall instability
will begin to decrease, the remaining moisture and local effects
may still support localized flooding, particularly in the interior
and western parts of Puerto Rico. Therefore, a limited flooding
risk will persist into the beginning of the work week.

From Tuesday onward, a more typical weather pattern is expected
to return as drier air and a strengthening mid-level ridge promote
stability across the region. Under a southeasterly flow, expect
passing showers across windward areas during the night and morning
hours, followed by isolated to scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms, mainly across western and northwestern Puerto Rico
due to local and diurnal effects.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 102 PM AST Thu Nov 6 2025

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals
during the next 24 hours. However, tempo MVFR conds are possible
thru 22z at TJBQ due to locally induced SHRA/TSRA. The 06/12z TJSJ
sounding indicated ESE winds up to 18 kt blo FL080.

&&

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 102 PM AST Thu Nov 6 2025

A surface low moving across the northwestern Atlantic will
generate a northerly swell, increasing seas to around 6 feet or
higher across the Atlantic waters and local Caribbean passages
tonight into Friday. Additionally, moderate to fresh easterly
winds are anticipated by this weekend, along with a better chance
of showers as a tropical wave moves across the Caribbean waters.
Small craft operators will likely need to exercise caution.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 308 AM AST Thu Nov 6 2025

A northerly swell will begin to build across the Atlantic waters
and northern coastlines, causing seas to increase and the rip
current risk to expand westward, including western Puerto Rico,
Vieques, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, late today into Friday
night. By Friday, a high risk of rip currents is expected for
north and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, possibly adding
Culebra, and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands later today, where
life- threatening rip currents will be possible.

A few afternoon showers or isolated thunderstorms could develop near
the coast, particularly across western Puerto Rico. If you hear
thunder, move indoors immediately.

For the latest updates on coastal and marine conditions, visit
weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk from Friday morning through late Friday
     night for PRZ001-002-005-008.

VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....RVT
AVIATION...ERF

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion