National Weather Service Today's Weather Impact Levels

780
FXCA62 TJSJ 110823
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
423 AM AST Tue Nov 11 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 419 AM AST Tue Nov 11 2025

 * Mostly stable weather conditions for  today and tomorrow, with
   only a few areas that would experience afternoon convection
   and a limited flood threat.

 * From Saturday into Sunday, weather conditions will deteriorate
   as a frontal boundary approaches north of the islands.

 * On Thursday into Friday, a long-period northerly swell will
   result in a high risk of rip currents along the north-facing
   beaches in PR and the USVI.

 * The U.S. Virgin Islands will enjoy stable and fair weather
   conditions from today into Friday, with some passing showers in
   the early morning hours.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Thursday)...
Issued at 419 AM AST Tue Nov 11 2025

A few showers were observed during the nighttime over the local
waters, and occasionally reaching portions of eastern Puerto Rico
and the Virgin Islands. However, rainfall accumulations were mostly
light, and most of the area saw clear skies and temperatures in the
70s.

Generally stable conditions are expected to prevail through much of
the workweek. At the upper levels, a ridge is centered just west of
Puerto Rico. At the mid levels, the ridge is centered just to the
northeast of the Caribbean. At the surface, high pressure is driving
the trade winds from the southeast, at speeds just below 15 knots.
In these winds, irregular patches of moisture, induced by an upper
level trough located east of the Lesser Antilles, will reach the
islands at times. This rain interruptions are expected to be brief,
and flooding is not anticipated. Also, diurnal heating is expected
to fire up showers in the northwest each afternoon, but rainfall
accumulation are expected to be minimal as well.

Temperatures are expected to be a little warmer than normal, with
highs mostly in the upper 80s, and lows in the 70s for coastal
areas, and in the 60s in the mountains.

&&

.Long Term...Friday through Tuesday...

A variable weather pattern is expected through the long term
period as a frontal boundary moves southward during the first part
of the forecast. From Friday into early Saturday, the local
islands will be dominated by an easterly wind flow. Under this
pattern, patches of shallow moisture with precipitable water
values between 1.2 and 1.6 inches will persist, remaining near
climatological normals. Although some moisture will be present, a
mid- to upper-level ridge will limit shower development across
most areas, leaving a moderate to high chance of afternoon showers
over the western interior on Friday.

Late Saturday into the upcoming workweek, the surface pattern
will shift as the frontal boundary approaches and weakens the
pressure gradient. Winds will veer from the north-northwest late
Saturday into Sunday, increasing the potential for passing showers
due to a cold advection pattern. This setup will promote showers
across the coastal waters and portions of the northern coast
during the morning and evening hours. However, significant
rainfall accumulations are not anticipated during this period.

A surface high pressure building over the western portion of the
Central Atlantic will weaken the frontal boundary early next week,
returning the local flow to an east-southeast direction from
Monday into Tuesday. This will promote a more typical weather
regime with heat indices possibly reaching 108 degrees in some
areas, followed by afternoon convection across the interior and
western Puerto Rico. &&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 419 AM AST Tue Nov 11 2025

Mostly VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast
period. SHRA will move at times across the local terminals and
surrounding waters, but impacts to operations are expected to be
minimal to none. However, from 18-22Z, SHRA are expected in the
vicinity of TJBQ, with periods of reduced VIS possible. Winds will
be from the SE at 11-14 kts, with gusts around 20 kts, especially
from 14-21Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 419 AM AST Tue Nov 11 2025

A broad surface high pressure extending from the north into the
Central Atlantic will maintain a moderate to locally fresh
easterly wind flow across the regional waters. A north-
northwesterly swell is forecast to arrive by Wednesday, increasing
seas and producing hazardous marine conditions across the offshore
Atlantic waters. Seas are expected to build to around 7 feet.
Small Craft Advisories may be required later today or tomorrow.
&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 419 AM AST Tue Nov 11 2025

A moderate risk of rip currents will persist through today into
tomorrow. A north-northwesterly swell arriving by Wednesday will
increase seas and result in hazardous surf conditions along the
northern beaches of Puerto Rico. Beachgoers should remain alert
and stay tuned for updates to the rip current risk forecast.&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM & AVIATION...ERG
LONG TERM & MARINE....LIS

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion