National Weather Service Today's Weather Impact Levels

593
FXCA62 TJSJ 141819
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
219 PM AST Wed Jan 14 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 214 PM AST Wed Jan 14 2026

 * Variable weather conditions will persist today into Thursday, with
   mostly showery mornings, followed by localized showers in the
   interior and northwestern areas.

 * From Friday into early Saturday, moisture will increase, and the
   frequency of showers is still expected to increase. Especially
   across eastern sections, including the San Juan metro area.

 * There is a moderate risk of rip currents tonight and tomorrow,
   increasing to high on Saturday into Sunday for the north coast
   of Puerto Rico and Culebra.

* Above-normal temperatures are expected over the next few days
  under a southeasterly wind flow. Some areas will experience
  slightly warmer temperatures due to changes in surface patterns.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 214 PM AST Wed Jan 14 2026

A variable weather pattern prevailed during the morning hours.
Upper-level cloudiness predominated across much of the region,
resulting in a cloud deck that limited good periods of sunshine
from 6 AM to 10 AM. As of 11 AM, cloud breaks across some western
and interior sections, allowing a brief period of sunshine and
development of cloudiness across eastern and some interior
sections of Puerto Rico. Some brief showers were observed across
interior sections, with minimal rainfall accumulation. Daytime
temperatures remained slightly warmer across the coastal and urban
areas. According to recent data from unofficial stations,
temperatures ranged from 89 to 93 degrees across the north coast
of Puerto Rico, with lower temperatures in the interior. Winds
remained from the southeast from 8 to 12 mph with sea breeze
variations.

For the rest of the day, surface conditions will remain similar,
dominated mostly by the broad surface high pressure extending from
the Central Atlantic into the Caribbean. These surface conditions
will allow persistent southeasterly winds, which will promote
shallow moisture patches along the islands from the Caribbean.
Given the expected conditions, passing showers are expected across
the offshore Caribbean and Atlantic waters. On Thursday, winds
will persist from the southeast, and an increase in Relative
Humidity at 700-500 MB is forecast. Therefore, isolated to
scattered showers are forecast along the southeast coast of Puerto
Rico, moving into the eastern interior. According to the Hi-
Resolution model, that shower activity will remain on the light
side for rainfall accumulations, limiting the flood threat. On
Friday, as the frontal boundary located over the western Atlantic
moves eastward, the induced surface trough will shift the surface
winds toward the east. This change will focus the shower
development on the interior, western interior, and eastern
sections. Compared to the model run in previous days, Friday shows
as slightly drier; however, some diffluence at the upper levels
would aid the vertical development. In terms of thunderstorm
activity, the Galvez-Davison Index (GDI) suggests some low chance
of one or two isolated thunderstorms with the heaviest shower
activity across the interior sections.|

&&

.Long Term (Saturday through next Tuesday)...
Issued at 505 AM AST Wed Jan 14 2026

By Saturday, the interaction between a surface high-pressure system
over the central Atlantic and a surface frontal boundary over the
western Atlantic will tighten the pressure gradient, resulting in
east to northeast breezy to locally windy conditions across the
area. These winds may cause loose outdoor items to be blown
around, particularly in exposed and coastal locations. Moisture
content is expected to be below average during the early morning
hours as a drier air mass, with precipitable water (PWAT) values
around 1.10 inches, moves across the region. Moisture will
gradually increase during the day, allowing for passing morning
trade wind showers over windward areas and afternoon convection
from the interior into western Puerto Rico. Passing showers across
the U.S. Virgin Islands. However, activity should move quickly
due to stronger winds, limiting rainfall accumulations and keeping
the flood risk low.

On Sunday morning, winds will remain breezy but are expected to
gradually weaken throughout the day. Sunday is anticipated to be
the driest day of the period, with precipitable water values
decreasing to between 1.2 and 1.5 inches and patches of near-
average moisture moving across the region. These conditions will
support more variable but seasonable weather, with passing trade
wind showers and limited afternoon convective development due to
local effects. From Monday through Wednesday, a subtropical jet
streak near 250 mb will establish a more favorable dynamic
pattern, supporting upper-level divergence and the development of
an induced surface trough. As a result, an increase in shower
activity is expected across the forecast area under an easterly to
northeasterly low-level wind flow. The potential for isolated
thunderstorms will also increase as mid to upper-level temperatures
cool. Based on the latest model guidance, temperatures aloft are
expected to decrease from around -5 degrees C on Monday to near
-7.5 degrees C by Wednesday. Forecast updates should continue to
be monitored as uncertainty remains. At this time, each afternoon
from early to midweek carries a limited flood risk, mainly due to
the potential for ponding of water on roads and in poorly drained
areas.

Ensemble guidance continues to indicate above-normal surface
temperatures across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands
through the long-term period, at least from Saturday through
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 214 PM AST Wed Jan 14 2026

VFR conds will prevail across all TAF sites thru the fcst period.
Brief periods of MVFR will remain possible at TJBQ in passing
showers through about 14/22z. Sfc winds from the ESE at 10 to 15
with sea breeze variations and higher gusts, becoming light and
variable overnight.
&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 214 PM AST Wed Jan 14 2026

No changes to the inherited forecast. A broad surface high
pressure over the Central Atlantic will continue to result in
east-southeasterly winds across the local waters and some coastal
areas. As a result, seas will remain up to 5 feet tonight and
tomorrow. Marine conditions are forecast to deteriorate late
Friday into the upcoming weekend as a northerly swell combines
with increasing winds, resulting in choppy to hazardous seas. For
those days, seas will build up to 7-8 feet across the offshore
Atlantic waters and the local passages. Small craft operators are
urged to stay tuned for future small craft advisories for the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 214 PM AST Wed Jan 14 2026

No changes to the inherited forecast. There is a moderate risk of
rip currents along all the northern-exposed beaches of Puerto Rico
and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Conditions will remain similar for
tomorrow, deteriorating for Saturday and Sunday, when energy from
a northerly swell moves in and results in breaking waves along all
the north and northeast coasts of Puerto Rico, including Culebra.
As a result, a high risk of rip current is forecast for the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM, MARINE & BEACH FORECAST...LIS
LONG TERM....MIDNIGHT CREW
AVIATION...OMS

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion