Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook

FLOOD THREAT

Lightning THREAT

HEAT THREAT

WIND THREAT

WAVES THREAT

RIP CURRENT THREAT



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 290755
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
355 AM AST Fri Mar 29 2024


.SYNOPSIS...

The surface high pressure stretching across the southwest Atlantic,
along with a distant diminishing area of low pressure northeast of
the region, will maintain a north to northwest winds until at least
Saturday. Also this weather scenario will limit shower activity
across the local region until Saturday morning. On Saturday, a cold
front now located over the Atlantic waters east of the continental
U.S. and extending south to Central America will move ESE and over
the local region by Saturday. This weather feature will increase the
shower coverage late Saturday through Sunday morning.Improving
weather conditions from Monday onwards.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday...

Throughout the overnight hours, predominantly fair weather
conditions persisted, marked by clear skies and mainly shower free
conditions. The Doppler radar only showed a few showers over the
Atlantic waters north of St Thomas. This prevailing pattern is
expected to persist into the afternoon, with a slight potential for
isolated showers to develop over the southern and southeastern
portions of Puerto Rico.

The current weather pattern will persist until Saturday,
Characterized by limited shower activity and  below normal
temperatures. Northerly winds and mostly clear skies will dominate
the  region during this period. However, this weather scenario is
anticipated to shift as a cold front is forecast to move across the
area late Saturday and Sunday morning. While models indicate that
the moisture associated to the cold front will swiftly move
eastward, there is a likelihood of increase showers and a slight
chance of thunderstorms. A much stable and drier airmass will move
across the region therefore limiting the shower development.

&&

.LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday...

On Monday, the surface high-pressure will continue to move
easterly from the western Atlantic, maintaining the northeasterly
winds across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The latest
model guidance shows a ridge at the mid-levels along with dry
conditions from 700 to 250 mb through at least the end of the
long-term period. A dry airmass is forecast to move across the
islands during the period. Precipitable Water models suggest
values dropping to around an inch and slightly below the two
standard deviations for this time of the year. By mid-week, expect
the winds to become easterly as the high-pressure system at the
surface continues to move close to the area. With this, expect the
return of typical weather conditions as the trade winds could
bring occasional periods of showers, particularly over the
windward sections of the islands. At this time, we anticipate
limited to no rainfall activity over Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands through the end of the period. Overall, mostly calm
and stable conditions will dominate the forecast areas from Monday
into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all TAF terminals
during the next 24 hours. N-NW winds will prevail through 29/18Z .
No significant rainfall activity is expected.

&&

.MARINE...

The surface high pressure stretching across the southwest Atlantic,
along with a distant diminishing area of low pressure northeast of
the region, will maintain light to moderate north to northwest winds
until at least Saturday. Although the northern swell event that
affected us for the last few days will gradually diminish by Saturday
morning, hazardous marine conditions will continue through the
weekend. Another north-northwesterly swell is forecast to reach
our local Atlantic waters starting late Saturday afternoon, posing
hazards once again. Therefore, both the general public and
mariners should closely monitor the marine conditions forecast.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

Despite the northerly swell will continue to subside, hazardous
beach conditions will persist through the upcoming weekend, with
another swell event expected to reach our local coast between
late saturday afternoon and Sunday morning.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for PRZ001-002-005-
     008-010.

VI...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for AMZ711.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EM
LONG TERM...MMC
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACH FORECAST...EM
PUBLIC DESK...MMC

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion

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