National Weather Service Today's Weather Impact Levels

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 101914
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
314 PM AST Mon Nov 10 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 302 PM AST Mon Nov 10 2025

* The US Virgin Islands can expect a mixture of mostly clear
  skies and clouds throughout the forecast period.

* Puerto Rico will experience mainly fair weather conditions, with
  the arrival of a few passing showers, producing periods of
  moderate to locally brief rain at times.

* A long-period northerly swell will result in a high risk of rip
  currents between Thursday and Friday along the north-facing
  beaches in PR and the USVI.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 302 PM AST Mon Nov 10 2025

The US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico experienced calm weather
conditions throughout the day due to the arrival of a drier air
mass and high pressure aloft. However, occasional showers moved
across the windward locations, bringing periods of moderate to
locally heavy rains, without resulting in flooding problems. The
combination of the available moisture with the maximum
temperatures in the upper 80s results in heat indices between 100
and 106 degrees Fahrenheit. Winds were mainly from the east at 10
to 20 mph with higher gusts.

A mid-to-upper-level ridge over the Northeast Caribbean will
promote stable weather through the short term. Meanwhile, at the
surface, a high pressure across the Central Atlantic will interact
with a frontal boundary moving eastward across the Western
Atlantic. This pattern will result in an easterly wind flow,
becoming more northeasterly by Wednesday. Additionally, a mid to
upper-level trough will amplify to the east of the Leeward
Islands, promoting occasional trade wind perturbations. These
perturbations will result in frequent passing showers, especially
at night, across the regional waters, moving inland at times.
Western Puerto Rico can expect limited afternoon convection each
day, and more to the southwest quadrant by Wednesday.

&&

.Long Term(Thursday through Monday)...
Issued at 228 AM AST Mon Nov 10 2025

A mid to upper level ridge will stay in place for the end of the
workweek and the weekend, maintaining a fair weather pattern across
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. North of the ridge, a polar
trough will move from the eastern coast of the United States into
the Atlantic Ocean. This will maintain the trade winds week, mostly
coming from the southeast at speeds of 11 kts on Thursday, and less
than 3 to 8 knots from Friday into early next week. For most of the
period, columnar moisture will be below normal, so rainfall activity
will be limited to a few showers along eastern Puerto Rico and the
United States, and limited convection in the west in the afternoon
hours. The risk of urban and small stream flooding will be low to
none for the period.

The day with the highest chances of rain will be on Saturday, as a
frontal boundary approaches the region. Even then, rainfall is not
expected to be widespread or too strong, but with enough moisture,
showers should fire up along the interior of Puerto Rico, while
others also reach the Virgin Islands occasionally.

Temperatures will be seasonably warm too, or slightly above normal,
with highs still in the mid and upper 80s in urban and low elevated
areas. Los will be mostly in the 70s for coastal areas, and in the
60s for the highest mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 302 PM AST Mon Nov 10 2025

VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites through the
period. VCSH possible at TJBQ thru 11/00z, and at TJSJ, TIST, and
TISX at times. Winds will remain mainly from the east at 10-15 kt,
with occasional higher gusts and sea breeze variations, mainly
during the morning and afternoon hours. Overnight, we expect calm
to light and VRB winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 302 PM AST Mon Nov 10 2025

A surface high pressure over the central Atlantic, interacting
with a frontal boundary moving eastward across the western
Atlantic, will promote moderate to locally fresh easterly winds
for the next few days. This conditions will result in choppy seas.
Then, a north-northwesterly swell will increase seas across the
local Atlantic waters and Caribbean passages by midweek, when
Small Craft Advisories will be likely required.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 302 PM AST Mon Nov 10 2025

A surface high pressure over the north central Atlantic will promote
moderate to locally fresh easterly winds for the next few days,
maintaining choppy seas. A north-northwesterly swell will bring
hazardous marine conditions across the local waters and passages by
midweek.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 302 PM AST Mon Nov 10 2025

The islanders and visitors can expect a moderate risk of rip
currents today across most of the shorelines of Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands. Then, we expect a low risk by tomorrow,
Tuesday.

A north-northwesterly swell will bring hazardous beach conditions,
particularly along north-facing beaches of Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands, increasing the risk of rip currents to
moderate to high during the second part of the workweek, Wednesday
through Friday. Beachgoers are urged to heed the advice of the
flag warning system and to always swim near a lifeguard.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Morning Crew...CAM/MNG
Evening Crew...MRR/YZR

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion