National Weather Service Today's Weather Impact Levels

658
FXCA62 TJSJ 260908
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
508 AM AST Fri Dec 26 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Dec 26 2025

* Northerly swell activity today and through the weekend will
  maintain hazardous marine conditions and life-threatening rip
  current risks, particularly across Atlantic waters and north-
  and east-facing beaches. While surf heights may fluctuate, the
  potential for high surf conditions cannot be ruled out,
  especially with additional swell pulses on Saturday.

* Typical December weather is expected over the next few days,
  characterized by cooler temperatures and periods of trade-wind
  showers, mainly during the overnight and early morning hours. No
  significant weather hazards are anticipated during this period.
  However, a gradual increase in moisture and instability from
  Wednesday into Thursday (New Years period) may result in more
  frequent showers and a low potential for isolated lightning
  activity.

* U.S. Virgin Islands: The primary threats will be marine and
  coastal, driven by ongoing northerly swell activity and life-
  threatening rip current conditions. Otherwise, typical seasonal
  weather conditions are expected, with brief passing showers and
  cooler temperatures.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Dec 26 2025

Northerly swell activity today and through the weekend will
maintain hazardous marine conditions and life-threatening rip
current risks, particularly across Atlantic waters and north- and
east-facing beaches. While surf heights may fluctuate, the
potential for high surf conditions cannot be ruled out, especially
with additional swell pulses on Saturday.

Typical December weather is expected over the next few days,
characterized by cooler temperatures and periods of trade-wind
showers, mainly during the overnight and early morning hours. No
significant weather hazards are anticipated during this period.
However, a gradual increase in moisture and instability from
Wednesday into Thursday (New Years period) may result in more
frequent showers and a low potential for isolated lightning
activity.

U.S. Virgin Islands: The primary threats will be marine and
coastal, driven by ongoing northerly swell activity and life-
threatening rip current conditions. Otherwise, typical seasonal
weather conditions are expected, with brief passing showers and
cooler temperatures.

&&

.Long Term(Monday through Friday)...
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Dec 26 2025

A shift in the weather pattern is expected this week. After a
relatively dry start on Monday and Tuesday, wetter conditions
return Tuesday night and persist through Friday as a weak frontal
boundary dissipates and a short-wave polar trough approaches the
region, with a surface trough reflection increasing moisture and
instability later in the week. Showers will become more frequent,
with periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall, especially
from Thursday afternoon into Friday. While widespread flooding is
not expected, localized urban and small-stream flooding will be
possible, mainly across windward and interior areas of Puerto Rico
and portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands. Confidence is moderate
that late-week rainfall will be the most impactful part of the
period.

Thunderstorm activity is expected to remain limited overall, which
is typical for this time of year, but there is a low to moderate
chance of thunderstorms Thursday into Friday as the trough
briefly enhances instability and supports isolated thunderstorm
development. Winds will remain a gentle east-southeast to
southeast breeze through Thursday, then veer to the east and
strengthen to a moderate breeze from Thursday night into Friday as
surface high pressure builds and shifts eastward over the North
Atlantic. Temperatures will trend slightly warmer from Wednesday
through New Years, with cooler conditions expected to return late
in the week. Confidence is high in the late-week increase in wind
speeds, resulting in breezy conditions at times, especially along
exposed coasts and higher elevations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Dec 26 2025

Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail. SHRA will move at
times, reaching TJSJ and USVI terminals, but impacts to operations
are expected to be minimal. After 18z, SHRA will develop near
TJPS, with brief periods of reduced VIS and low ceilings possible.
Winds will be from the NE at 7-9 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Dec 26 2025

A surface high pressure centered over the western Atlantic will
promote light to moderate east to northeast winds over the next
few days. Meanwhile, pulses of a long-period northerly swell will
invade the local waters and deteriorate marine conditions,
resulting in hazardous seas for small craft, with Small Craft
Advisories in effect from tonight through Saturday night.
Additional pulses of northerly swell are expected early next week,
which will likely once again bring hazardous conditions for small
craft across the local waters. Typical trade-wind shower activity
will continue to affect the region, especially during the
nighttime hours.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Dec 26 2025

A High Rip Current Risk continues today across the Atlantic-facing
beaches of Puerto Rico and Culebra, despite subsiding swell and
gradually improving marine conditions. Hazardous rip current
conditions will remain possible across more protected southern-
facing beaches, as well as Vieques and most U.S. Virgin Islands
beaches, although the risk there is less elevated compared to
Atlantic-facing shores.

Additional pulses of northerly swell arriving tonight are expected
to reinforce life-threatening rip current conditions, with the
high risk expanding to the northern U.S. Virgin Islands on
Saturday. While it is too early to determine exact surf heights,
the potential for high surf conditions exists, and the issuance of
High Surf Advisories cannot be ruled out later today or this
evening.

Beachgoers are strongly urged to remain out of the water,
especially at unguarded beaches, and to heed all local beach
safety statements and advisories. For further information, refer
to the Coastal Hazard Message (CFWSJU).

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for PRZ001-002-
     005-008-010-012.

VI...High Rip Current Risk from Saturday morning through late
     Saturday night for VIZ001.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM AST Saturday
     for AMZ711.

     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM AST Saturday
     for AMZ712-716-723-741-742.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ERG
LONG TERM....ICP
AVIATION...ERG

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion