000
FXCA62 TJSJ 091908
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
308 PM AST SUN MAR 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE UNTIL THE JET STREAM TO OUR NORTH
SHIFTS SOUTHWARD OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH NEAR 70 KNOT WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS NEXT WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL SHIFT TO
CENTRAL AMERICA ALLOWING LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW TO BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY. MID LEVELS REMAIN DRY...LESS THAN 25 PERCENT
RH...UNTIL MID WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK SHEAR LINE WILL STALL OVER THE LOCAL AREA
BEFORE DISSIPATING OR MOVING NORTH EARLY THIS WEEK. GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR LOCAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL PREVAIL.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ON
MONDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST. A STRONG LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
LEAVE THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH COASTAL AREAS
OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS APPEARED OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS MOVING VERY SLOWLY WEST. SHOWERS
DEVELOPED OVER PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SOME WITH
HEAVY RAIN. AS MUCH AS ONE AND ONE QUARTER INCH FELL IN A FEW
SPOTS OF THE MUNICIPALITIES OF MAYAGUEZ AND LAS MARIAS AS
CONVERGENCE BUILT CONVECTION OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. LIGHT
WINDS AND AN AREA OF LOWER MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL
REDUCE RAINFALL PROBABILITIES THROUGH MONDAY...THEN WE WILL
EXPERIENCE A GRADUAL INCREASE TO LEVELS SEEN DURING THE LAST FEW
DAYS BEFORE THE BOUNDARY MOVED. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
GENERALLY REDUCED THROUGHOUT THE NEXT WEEK...WITH BETTER MOISTURE
RETURNING SLOWLY FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL BE WEAKER AS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURES ALTERNATE
MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC AND THE PRESSURE PATTERN IN THE UPPER
LEVELS CHANGES LITTLE UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS TODAY
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TJPS AND THE VICINITY OF TJMZ WHERE SHRA AND
MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY UNTIL 10/00Z. THE DEVELOPING SHRA COULD BRING
VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KTS...TEMPO CIGS AT
FL020-030...AND SHRA/+SHRA...LIKELY OVER TJPS AND ACROSS THE
VICINITY OF TJMZ...CAUSING MVFR CONDS WITH BRIEF IFR CONDS
POSSIBLE. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR BEFORE
10/04Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA...BUT A WEAK
NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  71  80  70  81 /  10  10   0   0
STT  72  83  72  83 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

10/12