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262
FXCA62 TJSJ 071716
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
116 PM AST Thu May 7 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 115 PM AST Thu May 7 2026

* Warm to hot weather will continue through the middle of next
  week, particularly in urban and coastal areas of Puerto Rico and
  the U.S. Virgin Islands.

* Heat indices exceeding 100F are expected each afternoon.
  Scattered afternoon showers are expected across western Puerto
  Rico, with the potential for locally heavy rainfall and isolated
  thunderstorms.

* A typical early May weather pattern is expected through at
  least the middle of next week, with mainly clear mornings
  followed by afternoon showers over western and interior Puerto
  Rico each day.

* Moderate rip current risk will continue for north- and east-
  facing beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, and the U.S.
  Virgin Islands for much of the forecast period.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 115 PM AST Thu May 7 2026

In general, the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico had mostly
clear skies and above-normal temperatures, with maximum
temperatures reaching the low and mid-90s at coastal sites
(especially across western PR and the US Virgin Islands) and heat
indices up to 107 degrees Fahrenheit. Some showers moved across St
Croix, St Thomas, and St John early in the morning, and some were
detected downwind from the islands in the form of streamers early
this afternoon. Eastern PR also observed showers, especially in
Yabucoa, where radar estimated up to 1.8 inches. Cloudiness is
also increasing across most of PR and downwind from the USVI at
the moment of writing this discussion. The winds were mainly from
the east-southeast at 5 to 17 mph, influenced by sea breeze
variations.

A surge of moisture will combine with the excessive heating,
local effects, and sea breeze variations, resulting in showers and
isolated thunderstorms across the interior and west sections of
PR. This activity will continue into the evening across these
regions. After this activity dissipates, conditions will become
calm, with mostly clear skies. The eastern sections of PR and the
USVI will observe calm weather this afternoon and evening, though
showers may occasionally arrive. The islands, especially urban and
coastal areas, will experience warmer-than-normal temperatures
and higher heat indices.

The upper-level trough will continue to pull away from the Lesser
Antilles into the Atlantic Ocean through Saturday, as a mid- to
upper-level ridge and associated dry air aloft will maintain
subsidence across the northeastern Caribbean, limiting the
potential for widespread flooding. Nevertheless, the advection of
moisture pockets will bring occasional showers to the USVI and the
windward sections of PR, followed by afternoon convection driven
by local effects, sea breeze convergence, and daytime heating each
day, mainly across the interior and western sections of Puerto
Rico. Some of this activity may produce periods of moderate to
locally heavy rainfall, especially in the afternoon.

Also, the region will likely experience a warming trend, as model
guidance indicates above-normal temperatures at 925 mb.

&&

.Long Term(Sunday through next Wednesday)...
Issued at 115 PM AST Thu May 7 2026

A predominantly stable weather pattern will prevail through midweek
as a mid-level ridge remains anchored over the northeastern
Caribbean. This will continue to promote subsidence and maintain a
drier-than-normal environment, with available moisture largely
confined below 700 mb. As a result, vertical development will be
limited, favoring mostly fair weather conditions across the region.
Model guidance remains in good agreement, showing little deviation
from this pattern through the period.

At the surface, an east to east-southeasterly flow will dominate,
supporting a typical trade wind pattern. Brief, fast-moving showers
will affect windward areas during the overnight and early morning
hours, followed by isolated to locally scattered afternoon
convection over interior to western Puerto Rico, driven by local
effects and possibly enhanced by intense diurnal heating. However,
overall rainfall coverage will remain limited, and thunderstorm
development is expected to be minimal.

The main hazards during this period will be heat and breezy
conditions. Above-normal temperatures combined with warm low-level
moisture will promote a limited heat risk each day, particularly for
sensitive individuals or those engaging in prolonged outdoor
activities without adequate hydration. In addition, breezy
conditions will persist, especially across exposed coastal and
windward areas, leading to a limited non-thunderstorm wind risk with
occasional gusts around or above 25 mph. The combination of these
factors may support an elevated fire danger risk, particularly
across southern and coastal Puerto Rico where fuels will continue to
dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 115 PM AST Thu May 7 2026

VFR conditions across all terminals. Brief MVFR condt possible near
the VCTS/TSRA over TJBQ and TJPS aftern 07/18Z. Winds will remain
from SE around 9 - 19kts with occasional higher gusts around 23kt,
becoming light and variable overnight. VCSH over TIST, TISX, and
TJSJ after 07/09 - 07/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 115 PM AST Thu May 7 2026

Expect a moderate east-to-southeasterly wind flow to prevail
through this evening. Beginning tonight and continuing through
Sunday, a strengthening surface high pressure over the western
Atlantic will promote moderate to locally fresh east-to-northeast
winds across the regional waters. Thus, expect choppy marine
conditions due to the increasing winds. Breezy trade winds will
persist into early next week, with winds occasionally reaching up
to 20 knots; therefore, small craft should exercise caution across
portions of the local waters.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 115 PM AST Thu May 7 2026

The risk of rip currents is low along the southerly facing
beaches in PR and the USVI. However, we encourage beach
enthusiasts to exercise caution while enjoying the north- and
east-facing beaches from Rincon to Fajardo, as well as the
northern shores of Culebra and Vieques.

As we move into the weekend and early next week, the increasing
wind pattern will promote a moderate risk of rip currents across
most of Puerto Rico, St. Croix, St. Thomas, St. John, and nearby
islands, potentially forming life-threatening rip currents as they
break at the shore. Stay safe!

Keep an eye out for possible afternoon thunderstorms across
portions of western PR, which could bring strong, gusty winds and
lightning.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

MORNING CREW...CAM/MMC
EVENING CREW...ICP/GRS

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion