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171
FXCA62 TJSJ 180827
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
427 AM AST Wed Feb 18 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 420 AM AST Wed Feb 18 2026

* Afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected across
  interior and western Puerto Rico today. Although faster winds
  should limit rainfall totals, localized flooding remains
  possible, particularly in areas affected by repeated activity.

* Hazardous seas and life-threatening rip currents are expected to
  develop Thursday and Friday with the arrival of a northerly swell.
  Small Craft Advisories and High Rip Current Risk statements will
  likely be required, and a High Surf Advisory cannot be ruled out.

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, brief passing showers will
  continue mainly during the nighttime and early morning hours,
  followed by generally fair weather conditions each afternoon.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Friday)...
Issued at 420 AM AST Wed Feb 18 2026

A similar weather pattern will persist through today as troughiness
aloft lingers across the northeastern Caribbean. The upper-level jet
continues to exit the region, but cool 500 mb temperatures remain in
place, maintaining modest instability aloft. At the surface, the col
gradually shifts eastward, allowing east to east-northeast winds to
increase once again across the local area.

During the morning hours, mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies are
expected, with passing showers moving across windward coastal areas
of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. As the day progresses,
diurnal heating combined with local effects and residual troughiness
aloft will promote the development of convective activity. Showers
and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop primarily across
the interior and western portions of Puerto Rico during the
afternoon hours.

However, steering flow will be stronger compared to previous days,
resulting in faster-moving showers. This should limit rainfall
accumulations somewhat, and therefore, the flood threat is expected
to be lower than yesterday. Nevertheless, a limited flooding risk
remains in place across interior and western Puerto Rico, with
localized elevated flooding risk possible in areas that receive
repeated activity.

By Thursday and Friday, a transition toward a more stable pattern is
anticipated as a mid- to upper-level ridge builds over the region.
Mid-level dry air intrusion will gradually increase, while low-level
moisture remains below to near-normal levels. This will promote
generally fair weather conditions. Overnight and morning hours will
feature a few passing showers across windward coastal areas,
followed by isolated to scattered afternoon showers over interior
and western Puerto Rico, driven mainly by local effects. Overall, a
drying and stabilizing trend is expected through the end of the
short-term period.

&&

.Long Term(Saturday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 420 AM AST Wed Feb 18 2026

No major changes to the long term forecast. To start the weekend,
east to southeast flow will bring patches of moisture towards the
islands with Precipitable Water (PWAT values) up to seasonal to
slightly above normal for this time of the year. Patches of drier
air will also filter into the area during the weekend. A Surface
high over the southwestern to central Atlantic will persist during
the weekend along with mid level ridging. These will promote warm
500 mb temperatures, sinking air, and stability aloft. Overnight and
morning shower activity over windward sectors of the islands and
afternoon showers over sectors of the interior to W-NW PR, as well
as lines of showers from the local islands and el Yunque are
possible. However, under this pattern, this activity should remain
limited without much vertical extent (most available moisture should
remain below 800 mb). Although this pattern will persist to start
the workweek, uncertainty remains for Tuesday and into midweek as a
deep-layered trough can move near and over the area and result in
more unstable conditions. Seasonal to above seasonal 925 mb
temperatures are forecast for the long term period, particularly to
start the next workweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 420 AM AST Wed Feb 18 2026

Mainly VFR conds expected at all TAF sites thru the next 24 hrs.
VCSH will persist across TIST/TISX/TJSJ overnight and during the
morning. This aftn, VCTS possible at TJPS btwn 18-21Z. Brief MVFR
conds possible in heavier SHRA/TSRA. Iso TSRA may result in tempo
MVFR vsby/cigs and mtn obscurations across interior PR. Sfc winds
ENE 8-15 kt with higher gusts near SHRA/TSRA. The 18/00Z TJSJ
sndg indicated ENE winds up to 15 kt blo FL030.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 420 AM AST Wed Feb 18 2026

Winds will gradually increase today, as the weak front and
associated pre-frontal trough move over the Central Atlantic. A
surface high pressure building over the Western Atlantic will
promote light to moderate easterly winds through the latter part of
the week. Based on the latest model guidance, a long-period
northerly swell is expected to arrive late tonight into early
tomorrow and spread across the local waters and passages. Combined
with strengthening winds, choppy to rough seas are likely,
particularly over the Atlantic water, resulting in hazardous
conditions for small craft. Hence, additional Small Craft
Advisories may be required over the aforementioned zones.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 420 AM AST Wed Feb 18 2026

Today, mainly tranquil beach conditions are expected across the
islands, with a moderate risk of rip currents along the northern
beach of Puerto Rico, including Culebra, for tonight and a low
risk elsewhere. Although moderate rip current risk conditions will
develop by this evening, beachgoers should exercise caution as
life-threatening rip currents are possible along the surf zone as
the day progresses.

The beach conditions will likely deteriorate by tomorrow,
Thursday, with the arrival of a long-period northerly swell
combined with strengthening winds. Breaking waves between 6 and 7
feet are likely along north-facing beaches of Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands on Thursday and likely higher by Friday,
resulting in life-threatening rip currents. Hence, a high risk of
rip currents continues on the forecast for tomorrow, likely to
persist through Saturday. Beach conditions should gradually
improve by Sunday, lowering the rip current risk. Residents and
visitors are encouraged to follow the flag warning system and to
stay tuned for the next updates.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to midnight AST Friday
     night for AMZ711.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM, AVIATION, KEY MESSAGES...CVB
LONG TERM...MRR
MARINE/BEACH...MNG

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion