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338
FXCA62 TJSJ 270727
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
327 AM AST Fri Feb 27 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 312 AM AST Fri Feb 27 2026

* Life-threatening rip currents will impact north-facing beaches
  of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands today. The highest
  risk extends from Rincon to Fajardo, Culebra, Vieques, and
  across the USVI.

* Breezy trade winds will bring fast-moving showers through
  Sunday. Brief heavy rain may cause ponding on roads and reduced
  visibility, especially across the USVI and PR`s windward areas,
  especially today and Sunday.

* Breezy to windy conditions will continue into next week. This
  pattern will dominate the weather conditions from Tuesday
  through Thursday.

* Hazardous marine conditions are expected today. Choppy to rough
  seas and fresh to locally strong winds will create dangerous
  conditions for small craft throughout much of the forecast
  period.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 312 AM AST Fri Feb 27 2026

Overnight conditions were generally calm across Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands. High-level cirrus clouds moved eastward
across the northeastern Caribbean, while mid and low-level clouds
filtered from the east embedded in the winds. Most of the shower
activity was observed over the local waters, but some moved inland
across the USVI and PR`s windward areas. Temperatures fell into
the middle or lower 70s along the coast and into the low 60s, and
even cooler, across the higher elevations and valleys, early this
morning. Winds were mainly dominated by land-breeze across the
leeward sides of the islands, and from the ESE at 5 to 10 mph
across the windward locations.

A strong-surface high pressure system extending from the Central
to Western Atlantic will promote breezy to locally windy ESE winds
today into the weekend. These breezy easterlies will bring a
surge of moisture today, increasing the frequency of shower
activity from now onward, especially from late this morning into
the evening. Although we anticipate fast-moving showers, this
activity will bring periods of moderate to locally heavy rain,
resulting in ponding of waters across portions of the USVI and the
eastern sections of PR. Around mid-morning into the afternoon,
this activity will move further westward into the interior and
western sections of PR, resulting in downpours due to the
orographic and diurnal heating effects. This heating will promote
the potential for one or two thunderstorms across the mountains or
western PR during the afternoon. We cannot rule out isolated
urban flooding, given the potential for persistent rain
entrainment today.

A drier air mass and more southeast winds are expected for
Saturday. Combined with the presence of mid-level dry air, we do
not anticipate strong convection. Still, showers will be mainly
confined over northwest PR due to the anticipated above-normal
daytime heating, supported by near-to-above-normal 925 mb
temperatures. Another surge of moisture embedded in the winds will
increase the frequency of showers and clouds across portions of
the islands on Sunday.

The primary hazard at this time remains the hazardous beach
conditions along the Atlantic-facing coastlines due to life-
threatening rip currents. These conditions are expected from
Rincon through Fajardo, including Culebra and Vieques, as well as
across St. Thomas, St. John, and adjacent islands, and St. Croix.
Beachgoers are strongly urged to follow local safety guidance and
avoid entering the water where rip current risk is high. Please
avoid being part of the statistics.

&&

.Long Term(Monday through Friday)...
Issued at 312 AM AST Fri Feb 27 2026

A broad surface high over the north-central Atlantic will continue
to dominate the regional pattern through late week, maintaining a
tight pressure gradient and breezy to windy low-level flow across
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Winds will remain generally
easterly Monday into Tuesday, shifting to east to east-northeast by
Wednesday and Thursday as an additional high builds into the western
Atlantic and reinforces the gradient. Temperatures will remain near
seasonal normals.

Moisture will remain variable but generally above normal early in
the week, with embedded patches of deeper moisture moving within the
trade wind flow Monday and Tuesday. This will support frequent
passing showers, particularly during the overnight and morning hours
across windward sectors, followed by afternoon convection over
interior and western Puerto Rico each day. As winds become more east-
northeasterly late in the period, shower activity will favor eastern
and northeastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Periods of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall may occur where showers
repeatedly move over the same locations, especially Monday and
Tuesday, resulting in a limited risk of minor urban and small stream
flooding. A gradual drying trend is possible late Wednesday into
Thursday. Nevertheless, passing showers remain possible.

Breezy to windy conditions will persist, particularly from late
Tuesday onward, with gusty periods likely. Overall, the primary
hazards through Thursday will be the increase in wind speeds and a
limited flooding risk early in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 312 AM AST Fri Feb 27 2026

VFR conditions will prevail today. A surge of moisture will bring
occasional fast-moving SHRA/+SHRA and clouds from the east,
creating SCT to brief BKN ceilings across local terminals. During
the afternoon, 27/16-23z, SHRA frequency will increase, and the
potential for one or two thunderstorms will increase, especially
along the Cordillera and near JBQ. Expect ESE winds at 5-10 kt
overnight, and after 27/13z at 10-20 kt with gusts between 20 and
30 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 AM AST Fri Feb 27 2026

The long-period north-northwesterly swell is subsiding but will
continue to impact the Atlantic waters and local passages through
tomorrow. However, hazardous conditions may persist as a surface
high pressure extending from the Central to Western Atlantic is
currently tightening the local pressure gradient, promoting
fresh to locally strong east to east-southeast winds. Choppy to
rough seas will likely continue across the regional waters through
the middle of next week, and Small Craft Advisories may be
extended.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 312 AM AST Fri Feb 27 2026

No changes were introduced to the beach forecast. NDBC buoy 41043
continues to indicate a gradual decrease in swell energy. This has
been reflected in the San Juan and Rincon buoys, showing significant
wave heights fluctuating between 5 and 6 feet and periods at 11
to 12 seconds overnight, meaning that breaking waves are
fluctuating between 7 and 11 feet can be expected along the surf
zone but will likely continue to subside early this morning. Thus,
the High Risk of Rip Currents will continue from Rincon to
Fajardo, Culebra, Vieques, St Thomas, St John, Adjacent Islands
and St Croix through at least tonight.

By this weekend, the risk should remain moderate for most beaches
across the islands due to strengthening winds, but beachgoers
should remain cautious as life-threatening rip currents can be
present in the surf zone. The risk of rip current may increase mid
next week.

For safety, always check local conditions before swimming.
Beachgoers and inexperienced surfers are urged to avoid beaches
exposed to the northerly swell. Remember to swim near a lifeguard,
never swim alone, and, if caught in a rip current, remain calm,
do not exhaust yourself, and stay afloat while waiting for help.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ001-002-005-
     008-012.

     High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for PRZ010.

     High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM AST early this morning for
     PRZ011-013.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for VIZ001.

     High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for VIZ002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Saturday for AMZ711.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight AST tonight for AMZ712-716-
     723.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for AMZ726-733-
     741.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon AST today for AMZ742-745.

&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES/SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CAM
LONG TERM....MMC
MARINE/BEACH FORECAST...CVB

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion