Hurricane Season runs from June 1-November 30
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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)
781 FXCA62 TJSJ 112017 AAA AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service San Juan PR 417 PM AST Sun Jan 11 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 415 PM AST Sun Jan 11 2026 * A moderate risk of rip currents continues along north- and east- facing beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra, and at times the U.S. Virgin Islands, tonight and into the workweek. A high risk of rip currents is likely during the upcoming weekend as strengthening winds increase wind- driven hazards and a long- period northerly swell builds, leading to more dangerous marine and surf conditions. * A typical trade-wind pattern will bring passing showers to windward and coastal areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, mainly overnight and early in the morning, with limited afternoon shower development over western Puerto Rico. Rainfall impacts are expected to remain limited, though isolated ponding in poor-drainage areas remains possible. * Comfortable to near-seasonal temperatures will continue through midweek across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, with cooler nights through Tuesday morning, followed by a warming trend and above-normal temperatures expected toward the end of the week. && .Short Term(This evening through Tuesday)... Issued at 209 PM AST Sun Jan 11 2026 A patch of low-level moisture streamed across the region today, increasing cloudiness and producing passing showers with periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Radar-estimated totals peaked around 0.75 to 1 inch across portions of eastern Vieques, the San Juan metro area, and the north-central coast of Puerto Rico. Winds were mainly from the northeast at 10 to 15 mph, with sea-breeze variations and brief gusty conditions near passing showers. Temperatures ranged from the low 60s across higher elevations, where cloud cover persisted for much of the day, to the upper 80s across the U.S. Virgin Islands. A northeasterly low-level flow will prevail tonight as a shallow low-level trough moves westward across the region, reinforcing a typical trade-wind pattern. Cooler air sinking southward over the relatively warm waters will support passing trade-wind showers across windward and exposed coastal areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, while also allowing cooler-than-normal temperatures to settle in, with lows potentially dropping into the low 50s across interior valleys and higher elevations where skies partially clear. As the upper-level trough shifts east and mid- level ridging builds in its wake, drier air aloft and gradual mid- level warming will allow a trade-wind cap to reestablish, keeping moisture largely below 700 mb. As a result, showers will remain shallow and fast-moving with generally low rainfall rates and minimal impacts; no flooding is expected. A low chance of an isolated thunderstorm exists early in the period, decreasing overnight. Northeasterly winds will weaken and become light to calm and variable over land, with brief gusts possible near passing showers. Ridging will continue to build over the region on Monday, promoting increasingly stable conditions, before lifting northeast late Tuesday as another short-wave trough approaches. A prevailing trade-wind pattern will persist, with easterly winds briefly backing to the east-northeast Monday afternoon, then veering back to east and east-southeasterly through Tuesday. Shallow moisture embedded within the trades will support passing showers during the overnight and early-morning hours across windward areas, while daytime heating and sea-breeze interactions will favor limited shower development across western Puerto Rico during the afternoons. Shower activity may be slightly enhanced at times Monday morning and again Tuesday afternoon, coinciding with periods of higher PWAT; however, overall rainfall coverage and intensity are expected to remain near to slightly below normal. Mid-level temperatures will steadily warm through the period, reaching well-above-normal values by Tuesday into Wednesday, reinforcing a stable pattern and limiting convection. Cooler-than- normal low-level temperatures will persist through Tuesday morning, followed by a gradual warming trend as winds shift more southeasterly and warmer air lifts northward. Widespread flooding is not anticipated, though isolated ponding remains possible. && .Long Term(Wednesday through next Saturday)... Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Jan 11 2026 During the long-term period, a deep-layer mid to upper-level trough will continue shifting eastward away from the Lesser Antilles, while a weak mid to upper-level ridge builds over the northeastern Caribbean. Precipitable water values are forecast to range between 1.4 and 1.9 inches, near to above climatological normal for this time of year, with peak moisture expected on Friday. Low-level winds will generally remain from the east to southeast through Friday, then shift to the east-northeast on Saturday and Sunday while increasing in speed. Model guidance suggests a frontal boundary will remain north of the region, while a pre- frontal trough may enhance moisture convergence and atmospheric instability, supporting a wetter pattern around Friday and again next Saturday. At this time, Friday appears to present the highest rainfall potential, with a limited flood risk mainly across western Puerto Rico during the afternoon hours. Isolated thunderstorm activity cannot be ruled out as mid-level temperatures cool, with 500 mb temperatures decreasing from near -5 degrees C on Wednesday to around -8 degrees C by the end of the week. Ensemble guidance continues to indicate above-normal temperatures across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands throughout the long-term period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 209 PM AST Sun Jan 11 2026 After a showery AM, VFR prevails at all TAF sites thru 24 hrs. However, ocnl -SHRA/SHRA will affect most terminals, with ltd/no wx impacts at TJPS o/n and TJBQ during the AM hrs. Brief MVFR cigs/vsbys psbl in heavier SHRA. TSRA/-TSRA cannot be ruled out, mainly vcnty TJBQ/TJPS btwn 1622Z. SFC winds NE 1014 kt, gradually diminishing to 48 kt or lgt/vrb o/n at some sites, then returning NE/E 1015 kt with higher gusts, enhanced by sea- breeze effects aft 12/13Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 209 PM AST Sun Jan 11 2026 Moderate easterly winds will prevail across the local waters through the middle of the week, gradually veering to the southeast and strengthening later in the week, supporting a trade-wind shower pattern. A small northerly swell will continue to move across the region tonight while gradually dissipating, followed by the arrival of a larger northerly swell into the local waters Friday into the weekend. As a result, small craft should exercise caution tonight, particularly across the Atlantic waters, and near showers at times through the week. Hazardous marine conditions are likely by late in the workweek into the weekend due to combined wind and swell action. Mariners are advised to continue monitoring the forecast. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 209 PM AST Sun Jan 11 2026 A moderate risk of rip currents remains in effect tonight for the northern and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico, as well as Culebra, with breaking waves around 4 feet. Similar conditions are expected to persist over the next few days, with the moderate risk extending to the northwestern beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands on Monday. A moderate risk means that life- threatening rip currents are possible within the surf zone. A low risk will prevail across southern, more protected beaches; however, dangerous rip currents can still occur near groins, jetties, reefs, and piers, even when the overall risk is low. For more location-specific information, continue to monitor weather.gov/beach/sju. By next weekend, surf conditions may deteriorate, with the potential for a high risk of rip currents to return. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 209 PM AST Sun Jan 11 2026 Recent wetting rains have provided temporary relief across southern Puerto Rico, particularly the southwestern coastal plains; however, longer-term dryness and rainfall deficits persist. While KBDI values have decreased at some sites, fuels remain locally elevated, especially across southern Puerto Rico and Vieques, and isolated wildfire activity continues to be detected by satellite. Northeasterly winds may support additional showers in the short term, but a shift to east-southeasterly winds by midweek will favor drier conditions, with pockets of below- normal moisture possible during peak fire weather hours. Although early morning rainfall may help delay fire potential on some days, locally elevated fire danger remains, warranting continued monitoring. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ ICP/MMC
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