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597
FXCA62 TJSJ 191851
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
251 PM AST Mon Jan 19 2026

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1249 PM AST Mon Jan 19 2026

 * Hazardous coastal and marine conditions will continue tonight
   and Tuesday, with a high risk of rip currents across all north-
   exposed beaches in Puerto Rico, including Culebra, and the
   U.S. Virgin Islands.

 * Breezy to windy conditions are forecast during the workweek,
   particularly across coastal areas. Unsecured items could blow
   around.

 * Conditions will deteriorate from Wednesday into Friday,
   increasing the potential for showers and isolated
   thunderstorms, and resulting in ponding of water over roadways
   and poorly drained areas.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 1249 PM AST Mon Jan 19 2026

Fairly calm conditions prevailed across the islands this morning,
with clear to partly cloudy skies and only a few brief and very
localized passing showers affecting windward coastal areas of Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Rainfall accumulations were
minimal, and no significant weather impacts were observed. Breezy
conditions continued, especially along exposed coastal areas, but
overall weather remained tranquil through the morning hours. For
this afternoon, similar conditions are expected to persist. A few
showers may develop over interior and western portions of Puerto
Rico due to daytime heating and local effects; however, these
showers should remain very localized with minimal rainfall
accumulations.

For the remainder of the short-term period, the frequency of showers
is expected to gradually increase as a retrogressing upper-level
trough (TUTT) approaches from the east. This feature, along with its
associated moisture, will promote increasing atmospheric moisture
across the region. Precipitable water (PWAT) values are forecast to
fluctuate between near-normal and above-normal levels, ranging from
around 1.3 inches to nearly 2.0 inches through Wednesday. In
addition, 700-500 mb relative humidity is expected to surge from
below normal values to well above normal, particularly by Wednesday.

Instability aloft will also increase gradually as 500 mb
temperatures cool and lapse rates steepen between 700 and 500 mb.
Despite these changes, thunderstorm activity, if any, is expected to
remain very isolated. The best chance for isolated thunderstorms
will be over the surrounding waters during the overnight and morning
hours, and possibly over interior and western Puerto Rico during the
afternoon hours if sufficient diurnal heating develops.

Meanwhile, breezy to windy conditions will persist across the
northeastern Caribbean as a strong low-level flow remains in place.
925 mb winds are expected to remain elevated, supporting gusty
surface winds, especially across the U.S. Virgin Islands and
windward coastal areas of Puerto Rico. With this pattern, streamer-
like showers may develop downwind of the smaller islands and
mountainous regions, including portions of central Puerto Rico,
producing brief periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall.

Wind conditions are expected to strengthen further on Wednesday,
with sustained winds in the low to mid-20s mph possible at times
with higher gusts, especially across the U.S. Virgin Islands and
windward coastal areas of Puerto Rico. These windy conditions could
cause unsecured outdoor items to blow around or sustain minor
damage. Overall, while flooding risks remain limited due to fast-
moving showers, localized ponding of water on roadways and in poor
drainage areas cannot be ruled out during heavier showers.

&&

.Long Term(Thursday through next Sunday)...
Issued at 511 AM AST Mon Jan 19 2026

Weather conditions from Thursday into Friday will remain variable
due to a surface disturbance moving across the islands. According
to the global model guidance, abundant surface moisture trapped in
the low and mid levels will enhance conditions for frequent,
isolated to moderate showers across eastern sections of Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, followed by afternoon showers
across the western interior. So far today, the model suggests
precipitable water values from Thursday into Friday fluctuating
between 1.6 and 1.9 inches, which is slightly above climatological
normals. Combine with the moisture, colder temperatures at 500 MB,
allowing the development of one or two isolated thunderstorms with
the strongest shower activity. Rainfall accumulations for each
day are forecast to result mostly in poor driving conditions and
some minor flooding in isolated low-lying areas.

Weather conditions will improve by Saturday into Sunday, when the
disturbance moves out of the region and a drier airmass filters
into the local islands. At the surface, a broad surface high
pressure extending across the Atlantic basin will promote mostly
easterly wind flow across the area. At the mid to upper levels,
subsidence will inhibit well development of showers; however, the
local effect would enhance some brief, isolated to moderate
showers, with no flooding threat each day. On Monday, the surface
conditions will change as veering winds start in response to the
pre-frontal trough moving southward near the north of the
Hispaniola. Therefore, winds will turn more northeasterly,
resulting in a more advective pattern across the area. The
northward component of winds will also result in colder
temperatures during the morning and night hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1249 PM AST Mon Jan 19 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals through the
period. E winds will increase through the afternoon with sustained
speeds of 15-20 kt and higher gusts. VCSH/SHRA will continue at
times, mainly affecting windward terminals aft 19/23z, briefly
reducing VIS and CIGS. Winds diminish slightly overnight but remain
breezy.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1249 PM AST Mon Jan 19 2026

A broad surface high pressure over the Central Atlantic will
continue to promote moderate to locally fresh easterly winds
tonight and Tuesday. Although winds weaken and swell continues to
diminish, choppy to rough seas are still expected, particularly
over the Atlantic offshore waters and the Anegada Passage. The
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through at least midnight
Tuesday night. However, the Small Craft Advisory will likely be
extended as the surface high pressure is expected to strengthen
and promote fresh to locally strong winds, deteriorating marine
conditions. Small craft operators are encouraged to stay tuned for
further updates.

Based on the latest model guidance, marine conditions should
gradually improve by the upcoming weekend.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 1249 PM AST Mon Jan 19 2026

No changes were introduced to the beach forecast. The high risk of
rip currents remains in effect along north and east-facing beaches
of Puerto Rico, including Culebra, and the beaches across the U.S.
Virgin Islands through late tonight. Residents and visitors are
urged to consider other beaches under lower risk and to always
swim near a lifeguard.

Although latest buoy observations show a decreased in significant
wave height and the swell continues to diminish across the local
waters, the high risk of rip currents may persist due
strengthening winds. Hence, beachgoers are encouraged to monitor
beach conditions and stay tuned for further updates. For more
information, visit weather.gov/beach/sju.

Besides rip currents, breezy to windy conditions are expected to
continue this workweek, particularly over coastal areas of the
islands. Beachgoers are encouraged to secure object that could
blow around.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ001-002-005-
     008-012.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for VIZ001-002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight AST Tuesday night for AMZ711-
     723.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CVB
LONG TERM...LIS
MARINE/BEACH FORECAST...MNG

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion