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839
FXCA62 TJSJ 031812
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
212 PM AST Sun May 3 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 206 PM AST Sun May 3 2026

* Isolated to scattered showers are possible over northwestern
  Puerto Rico during the afternoon hours, mainly fair weather
  prevailing elsewhere.

* Fair weather conditions are expected to continue over the next few
  days, with just locally induced afternoon showers over western
  Puerto Rico.

* Warmer-than-normal temperatures will persist, with heat indices
  reaching or exceeding 100 degrees F across urban and coastal areas.

* A moderate risk of rip currents will continue through at least
  Thursday along the north and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico,
  Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands at times.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 206 PM AST Sun May 3 2026

The primary weather hazard through Tuesday will be above-normal
temperatures. With 925mb temperatures reaching the 75th percentile
of climatology (2123C), daytime highs will climb into the upper
80s to low 90s across coastal and urban areas. Combined with existing
humidity, heat indices are expected to reach or exceed 100F.

A strengthening mid-level ridge and a prevailing east-to-
southeasterly trade wind flow will dominate the weather pattern
through the short-term period. The latest 12z sounding data show a
relatively dry air mass, with Precipitable Water (PWAT) near 1.40
inches, which is on the lower end of seasonal climatology. Mid-
level relative humidity (700-500mb) remains limited at
approximately 3045%, while a persistent trade wind cap near the
850mb level will act to suppress widespread deep convection.
Therefore, the expected locally induced afternoon showers over
northwestern PR will leave mostly minor rainfall accumulations.

Similar conditions will continue through Monday, as fair weather
will prevail across the islands. However, daytime heating and
local sea breeze convergence will likely trigger isolated
scattered afternoon showers, primarily over the interior and
northwestern sections of Puerto Rico. For the USVI and eastern
windward coasts of Puerto Rico, expect brief, shallow trade wind
showers during the overnight and early morning hours.

Model guidance suggests a subtle surge of low-level moisture (PWAT
near 1.60 inches) on Tuesday. While significant rainfall is not
anticipated, this surge in moisture may lead to increased coverage
of passing showers across windward areas and a slightly more
active afternoon in western Puerto Rico.

&&

.Long Term(Wednesday through next Saturday)...
Issued at 410 AM AST Sun May 3 2026

An upper level trough will cross the local islands on Wednesday,
causing mid-levels temperature to cool down. Although this would
usually result in an increase in instability, a mid-level ridge will
maintain conditions generally unfavorable for strong showers
production. Later in the workweek, a cold front at the mid-levels
will cross the region. The air mass will dry out further, with the
forecast soundings suggesting considerable dew point depressions and
trade wind caps around 850 mb levels. In general, fair weather will
prevail, but diurnal heating should still trigger localized
convection in the interior and west of Puerto Rico. Also, patches of
moisture trapped in the lower 850 mb of the atmosphere will be
dragged by the trade winds along the Virgin Islands and eastern
Puerto Rico at times. However, the risk of flooding will be low to
none for most of the period.

The steering flow at the surface will be mainly out of the east at
around 10 knots through much of the forecast period. Aloft, winds
will be from the north, but this will not translate into cooler
temperatures. Highs will still reach the upper 80s and low 90s along
many coastal areas, and around 80 in the mountain.

In comparison with the previous cycles, the probability of
precipitation has been decreased for most of the period. By the next
weekend however, the mid level ridge will lose its grip a little, as
a mid to upper level low develops northeast of the Caribbean.
Stronger showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to form,
mostly focusing along the interior and western Puerto Rico.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 206 PM AST Sun May 3 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals
during the next 24 hours. The 03/12z TJSJ sounding indicated ESE
winds up to 21 kt blo FL050. Winds will become light and variable
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 206 PM AST Sun May 3 2026

A broad area of high pressure over the central Atlantic will support
gentle to moderate east to east-southeast flow across most of the
local waters through much of the forecast period. Seas are expected
to range from 3 to 5 feet, occasionally building to around 6 feet,
due to a mix of locally generated wind waves and a weak, long-period
northeasterly swell. Isolated showers could briefly enhance winds
and seas at times.


&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 206 PM AST Sun May 3 2026

Tonight, a moderate risk of rip currents will persist along the
north and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, including Culebra.
This indicates that life-threatening rip currents are possible in
the surf zone, and beachgoers should exercise caution. A similar
pattern is expected to continue through at least Thursday, with the
U.S. Virgin Islands included at times as pulses of a small, long-
period northeasterly swell promote higher breakers and stronger rip
currents along north-exposed areas.

By late week, conditions are expected to gradually improve, with a
low risk briefly prevailing across most beaches. For additional
information and location-specific rip current details, visit
weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES/MARINE/BEACH...YZR
AVIATION/SHORT TERM...DSR
LONG TERM...ERG

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion