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765
FXCA62 TJSJ 191814
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
214 PM AST Thu Feb 19 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 214 PM AST Thu Feb 19 2026

* Life-threatening rip currents and dangerous surf continue across
  the Atlantic beaches of Puerto Rico (Rincon to Fajardo), and
  life-threatening rip currents along eastern PR, Culebra, St.
  Thomas, St. John, and nearby islands through at least Friday
  evening.

* Expect above normal temperatures across the region, with limited
  flooding risk from scattered afternoon showers across the
  interior and western Puerto Rico each afternoon and brief
  passing showers across eastern PR and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

* Rain chances increase by midweek next week, mainly across the
  interior and western Puerto Rico, from Wednesday through
  Thursday. Please, actively monitor forecasts for updates as
  conditions become more unsettled.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 214 PM AST Thu Feb 19 2026

Maximum temperatures were in the mid-80s to the upper-80s, with
heat indices in the mid-90s. Winds were from the east at 10 to 15
mph, with higher gusts and sea-breeze variations. The skies were
mostly clear through the morning hours.

Hazardous coastal conditions will continue today as dangerous
surf battered the Atlantic Coastline, causing life-threatening rip
currents and very dangerous surf conditions for beachgoers from
Rincon to Fajardo. At the same time, Culebra, eastern PR, St
Thomas, St John, and the adjacent islands have a high risk of rip
currents. These hazardous coastal conditions will last through at
least Friday afternoon.

Local effects will promote the formation of showers across
western PR, so there is a limited chance of flooding rains later
this afternoon into the evening. The limited chance of flooding
rains means that moderate to locally heavy rains will result in
ponding of water on roads and in poorly drained areas, with a low
chance of urban and small streams flooding. The rest of the
islands will be under the influence of easterlies, which could
bring one or two quick, passing showers across windward locations
in the US Virgin Islands and PR, but, in general, they can expect
mostly clear skies.

A ridge pattern at mid- to upper levels will promote a somewhat
stable weather pattern over the Northeast Caribbean, limiting the
development of showers or flooding rains across the US Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico on Friday and Saturday. However, overnight
and morning hours will bring passing trade wind showers to eastern
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. In the afternoon,
isolated to scattered showers will occur in the interior and
western regions of Puerto Rico, driven by sea breeze variations
and local effects. This activity is expected to remain mostly
shallow due to the dry air and subsidence aloft. Overall, mostly
fair weather conditions are anticipated to continue through the
end of the short-term period.

&&

.Long Term(Sunday through next Wednesday)...
Issued at 450 AM AST Thu Feb 19 2026

To start the next week, southeasterly steering flow will bring
patches of moisture to the region with Precipitable Water (PWAT)
values at normal to slightly above normal for this time of the year.
Patches of drier air with seasonal to below seasonal PWAT will also
reach the region. As a frontal boundary approaches by mid week,
steering flow will back to become more easterly and promote an
increase in available moisture and PWAT values late Wednesday and
Thursday. A surface high over the southwestern to central Atlantic
will gradually move away from the region to start the week as a
frontal low moves over the western Atlantic. However, another
surface high will move into the western to central Atlantic by
midweek. Upper level ridging will also be displaced out of the
region to start the week with a deep layer trough will possibly
approach the region by the latter half of the long term period.
Available moisture can reach above 700 mb to the mid to upper
levels, with cooler mid level temps and general instability.
Overnight and morning shower activity over windward sectors of the
islands and afternoon showers over sectors of the interior to W-NW
PR, as well as lines of showers from the local islands and el Yunque
are forecast under the southeasterly flow. Under the more easterly
flow by midweek and increased moisture this pattern could be
enhanced with afternoon convection over interior to western PR.
Seasonal to above seasonal 925 mb temperatures are forecast for the
long term period, particularly to start the next workweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 214 PM AST Thu Feb 19 2026

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Brief VCSH are
possible during the overnight period across TISX, TIST & TJSJ. Aft
20/17Z, VCSH will be possible near TJBQ. Winds becoming lighter
overnight across all TAF sites, after 20/14Z winds will prevail
mainly form the E at around 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 20 to 22
kts and during typical sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 214 PM AST Thu Feb 19 2026

A long-period northerly swell will continue to spread across the
local Atlantic waters and passages through Friday evening. At the
same time, a surface high pressure building over the Western
Atlantic will promote light to moderate easterly winds through
Friday, becoming moderate to locally fresh by Friday night.
Thus, confused moderate to rough seas will result in hazardous
seas for small craft during this period. Small Craft Advisories
remain in effect over the Atlantic offshore and coastal waters
through late Friday night. A gradual improvement in marine
conditions is expected later in the weekend. Another swell could
reach the islands by the middle of next week.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 214 PM AST Thu Feb 19 2026

Beach conditions will become more hazardous as a long-period
northerly swell continues to spread across the Atlantic waters and
local Caribbean passages through the rest of today and into
tonight. NDBC buoy observations at San Juan and Rincon are already
showing wave heights of 5 to 6 feet at 12 to 13 seconds, as a
result, breaking waves are currently around 10 to 11 feet.
Observations at Buoy 41043 have been showing seas of 8 to 10 feet
at 13 to 14 seconds from the north, and part of that energy will
continue to arrive tonight. The latest model guidance indicates
that the swell will peak tonight through Friday morning. Therefore,
high surf conditions and life-threatening rip currents will
continue along the beaches from northwestern to northeastern
Puerto Rico, including Culebra, as well as St. Thomas and St. John
in the U.S. Virgin Islands. A High Surf Advisory is in effect
through at least through Friday afternoon, as well as the High Rip
Current Risk Statement.

Beachgoers and inexperienced surfers are urged to stay out of the
water, continue monitoring forecast updates, and follow all local
advisories, warnings, and guidance from lifeguards and local
officials as conditions deteriorate.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for PRZ001-002-
     005-008-010-012.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST Friday for PRZ001-002-005-008-
     010.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for VIZ001.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight AST Friday night for AMZ711-
     712.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE...CAM
LONG TERM...MRR
AVIATION/BEACH FORECAST...YZR

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion