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401
FXCA62 TJSJ 250716
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
316 AM AST Sun Jan 25 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 305 AM AST Sun Jan 25 2026

* Hazardous conditions for small boat continue today along the
  offshore Atlantic waters, but conditions will gradually improve
  by tonight. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating these
  waters.

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, lots of sunshine is expected
  through the first half of the day, with a few showers reaching
  the islands later in the afternoon and evening hours.

* Partly cloudy skies will persist across Puerto Rico today, with
  showers developing in the interior and west this afternoon. No
  flooding risk is anticipated with these showers.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM AST Sun Jan 25 2026

During the overnight hours, clear to partly cloudy skies prevailed
across much of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, with passing
showers brushing coastal areas at times. However, shower activity
gradually decreased toward the early morning hours as a dry slot
approached from the east. GOES-19 PWAT imagery indicated values
dropping below one inch within this drier air mass, supporting a
notable reduction in rainfall coverage and intensity. As a result,
mostly fair weather conditions with little to no rainfall are
expected during the morning hours today.

A few showers may still develop during the afternoon hours,
primarily over interior and western portions of Puerto Rico due to
local effects and diurnal heating, but activity is expected to be
less frequent and less widespread than observed on yesterday.

For the remainder of the short-term period, a mid-level ridge is
forecast to build and settle over the northeastern Caribbean. This
pattern will promote mid-level drying and increased subsidence,
along with warming near the 500 mb level, resulting in reduced
instability aloft. Precipitable water values will continue to
fluctuate as patches of shallow moisture move across the islands
from time to time. Consequently, mostly fair weather conditions are
expected to prevail, with passing showers affecting windward coastal
areas during the nighttime and morning hours, and some afternoon
shower development over interior and western sections of Puerto Rico
each day. The frequency and coverage of these showers will largely
depend on the timing and extent of these moisture patches.

Breezy easterly winds will continue today, particularly across
coastal and exposed areas. However, winds are expected to gradually
diminish through the end of the short-term forecast period as the
surface high pressure over the central Atlantic shifts eastward and
a col approaches from the northwest, weakening the pressure gradient
across the northeastern Caribbean.

&&

.Long Term(Wednesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 305 AM AST Sun Jan 25 2026

The mid to upper level ridge will hold on Wednesday. At the low
levels, limited moisture in anticipated, so fair weather should
persist until then. Then, there are some changes in store Thursday
onward. First, a polar trough will weaken the pressure gradient,
causing winds to become lighter. Surface steering flow will fall to
nearly 9 knots on Thursday to about 2-6 knots on Friday.  The polar
trough will escort a cold front near Hispaniola and Cuba, with winds
shifting from the south from the surface into the mid levels of the
atmosphere. As a result, warmer than normal temperatures are
anticipated. Also, the shift in winds will bring a slot of dry air
on Thursday, followed by increasing moisture Friday onward. With
light winds on Friday, showers are expected to form in the
Cordillera Central, where urban and small stream flooding could
occur. Then, on the weekend, additional moisture will approach
from the south, and also from the north (associated with the cold
front). Increasing shower frequency is expected for the Caribbean
and Atlantic waters. The proximity of the cold front will cause
winds to weaken again on Sunday, with speeds of 1 to 5 knots and
variable wind speeds. The global models also show the front
crossing late on Sunday, which could cause another increase in
showers and thunderstorms across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 305 AM AST Sun Jan 25 2026

VFR conds will prevail across all terminals thru the fcst period.
Passing SHRA may affect mainly windward terminals at times, but no
sig VIS or CIGs restrictions are expected. Winds will remain from
the EENE at 1016 kt with higher gusts possible, especially aft
25/14Z.&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 AM AST Sun Jan 25 2026

A building high pressure centered over the western Atlantic, north of
the islands, will bring moderate to fresh tonight through Monday.
Winds will remain moderate toward the middle portion of the week as
the high rolls into the central and eastern Atlantic. Showers will
be less frequent today, moving across the Atlantic and Caribbean
waters.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 305 AM AST Sun Jan 25 2026

Breezy conditions will maintain a moderate rip current risk for
the north and east facing beaches of Puerto Rico, as well as for
Vieques, Culebra and all the beaches across the Virgin Islands.
Similar conditions are expected to persist through the upcoming
days, with only the west, south, and southwest of Puerto Rico with
a low risk of rip currents.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for AMZ711.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CVB
LONG TERM/MARINE/BEACH....ERG

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion