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190 FXCA62 TJSJ 251901 AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 301 PM AST Sat Oct 25 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... * Cloudiness and isolated to scattered showers carried by the trade winds will continue this afternoon from the interior into western Puerto Rico, and across the local waters and eastern Puerto Rico tonight. * Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, isolated to scattered showers from time to time, particularly overnight into the morning hours. * A moderate risk of rip currents will continue for most beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through the remainder of the weekend and early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (this evening through Monday) Issued at 256 PM AST Sat Oct 25 2025 The cloud cover from the now Hurricane Melissa, far SE (around 535 miles from Cabo Rojo) continued over most of the region while showers and t-storms associated with it`s outer rainbands gradually dissipated during the morning hours. With relatively drier air moving in from the southeast, weather remained under a more seasonal pattern under SE winds up to around 15 mph, with higher gusts and sea breeze variations. Official and unofficial stations reported that heat indices have reached the low 100s aross coastal and urban areas of the islands with isolated stations reaching the mid 100s. Isolated to scattered showers (and possible isolated t-storms under SE flow) will continue to develop this afternoon from interior into western Puerto Rico, and downwind of the local islands and El Yunque. Under SE flow showers over the local waters can also reach the USVI, eastern and southern Puerto Rico tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are still possible over the waters, especially over the offshore waters. Southeasterly flow will continue during the forecast period. This along with diurnal heating (depending on how cloud cover diminishes) and local effects will result in afternoon showers and isolated t-storms along the interior to west-southwest PR each afternoon, as well as downwind of the local islands and El Yunque, prompting a limited to elevated excessive rainfall risk and a limited lightning risk. Passing showers continue to be forecast across windward sectors each day. Up to a limited heat risk continues to be forecast for coastal and urban areas during the short term period. Lows are forecast in the upper 70s to low 80s at lower elevations of the islands, and in the mid 60s to mid 70s at higher elevations of PR. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 431 AM AST Sat Oct 25 2025 The long-term forecast remains on track, with slight changes for the latter part of next week. As mentioned in previous discussions, uncertainty has remained high for this period due to Tropical Storm Melissa trajectory. The latest deterministic guidance of global models continue to suggest Melissa moving across Jamaica and shifting north- northeastward between eastern Cuba and Haiti. The latest deterministic guidance of the GFS and the ECMWF show more confidence (around 50%) of PWAT values between 2.0 - 2.2 inches, above climatological normal. But variability increases Wednesday onwards as some members are tending to more seasonal values (1.8 - 2.0 inches) compared to previous runtime. This disparity between the GFS and the ECMWF is due to the trailing moisture of Tropical Storm Melissa, which the GFS locates over the region while the ECMWF does not suggest this high moisture content across the CWA. Hence, for at least Tuesday and Wednesday, the advective pattern may persist, with SE-S winds pooling tropical moisture into the region. Showers and isolated thunderstorms may move from time to time during the morning over windward sections, while afternoon convection over the mountain ranges of Puerto Rico could increase the flooding potential (if cloud cover remains limited to none). Due to previous shower activity (particularly over eastern and southern portions of Puerto Rico), saturated soils may contribute to the enhancement of flooding potential. Hence, a limited to elevated flooding risk will remain over the aforementioned areas. On Thursday and Friday, a more seasonal weather pattern is likely, with showers and thunderstorms developing over the mountain ranges into western/northwestern portions of Puerto Rico. Additionally, latest guidance suggest the approach of an upper- level low to the Caribbean Basin by the end of the period, increasing moisture content and instability. Nevertheless, due to high uncertainty, the flooding and lightning risk will remain limited for the rest of the period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 256 PM AST Sat Oct 25 2025 Mainly VFR conditions. Afternoon VCSH will affect most terminals with VCTS to TS possible mainly for TJBQ until around 23Z, which can promote brief MVFR conditions. VCSH/possible VCTS affecting mainly eastern and southern coasts tonight. SE winds generally at 10 to 15 kts, with higher gusts and sea breeze variations, will continue before becoming lighter with land breezes after 25/23Z. Winds picking up again from the SE after 25/13Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 256 PM AST Sat Oct 25 2025 Moderate easterly winds will prevail through early next week, then gradually turn southeasterly to southerly around Tuesday into midweek under the influence of Hurricane Melissa, which may track north of Hispaniola, and a building surface high pressure system across the eastern Atlantic. Seas are expected to increase to exercise caution levels by Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms associated with peripheral moisture of Melissa will continue across our regional waters and passages, leading to periods of localized hazardous marine conditions, particularly overnight. Mariners are urged to exercise caution and remain vigilant across these waters. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 256 PM AST Sat Oct 25 2025 A moderate risk of rip currents is expected to prevail through early next week at most beaches in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Beachgoers should exercise caution, as life-threatening rip currents are possible along the surf zones. Additional hazards include showers and thunderstorms developing across coastal areas each afternoon, therefore, beachgoers should stay alert for any sudden changes in weather conditions and seek shelter immediately if they hear thunder. Around midweek, there is a possibility that the risk of rip currents could increase to high across some north-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, leading to hazardous swimming conditions due to pulses of energy generated by Tropical Cyclone Melissa, although this will depend on its final track. Beachgoers are encouraged to continue monitoring the beach forecast for any updates or adjustments. Please refer to weather.gov/beach for detailed information in your area of interest. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ MRR/YZR
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