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FXCA62 TJSJ 311256
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
856 AM AST Tue Mar 31 2026

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 845 AM AST Tue Mar 31 2026

We update marine to include a Small Craft Advisory for the
Surrounding waters of Vieques, Culebra, St Thomas and St John and
the coastal hazards to start earlier the High Surf Advisory along
the north- facing beaches of Vieques, Culebra, and the northern
US Virgin Islands.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 845 AM AST Tue Mar 31 2026

* Hazardous beach conditions will continue across Puerto Rico and
  the U.S. Virgin Islands. Life-threatening rip currents and
  dangerous surf are expected along north- and east-facing
  beaches.

* Passing showers overnight and in the morning, with afternoon
  showers and isolated thunderstorms over western to southwestern
  Puerto Rico. Localized flooding is possible; lower risk across
  the U.S. Virgin Islands.

* Isolated thunderstorms may develop, mainly in the afternoon,
  producing lightning, brief heavy rain, and gusty winds.

* Breezy to locally windy conditions will persist, especially in
  coastal and exposed areas, supporting fast-moving showers.

* These conditions may affect outdoor and holiday activities. Plan
  accordingly and stay weather-aware.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Wednesday)...
Issued at 200 AM AST Mon Mar 30 2026

Overnight, an increase in trade wind showers was observed moving
inland from the Atlantic waters, with some reaching interior
portions of Puerto Rico due to strong steering winds. These
showers produced isolated rainfall amounts between 0.25 and 0.50
inches. Overnight low temperatures dropped into the mid 50s
across higher elevations and mid 60s across lower elevations,
reflecting slightly cooler-than-normal conditions that are
expected to continue over the next few days. Breezy to locally
windy northeasterly winds will persist across Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands, driven by a strong surface high pressure over
the western Atlantic. This pattern will continue to support
frequent passing showers, especially during the overnight and
early morning hours across windward areas. Aloft, a jet stream and
a weak shortwave trough north of the region may help support
slightly deeper moisture and limited instability starting Tuesday.

Moisture will vary from time to time, with periods of drier and
wetter air moving across the region. By Tuesday, a patch of higher
moisture, possibly linked to remnants of a frontal boundary to
the north, will move across the area, allowing for more active
shower development. Afternoon heating will help showers grow over
land, especially across interior and western Puerto Rico,
following a typical pattern of morning showers in windward areas
and afternoon activity inland.

The main hazards will be localized flooding and breezy to windy
conditions. While showers will move quickly, recent rainfall may
have left soils sensitive, increasing the risk of ponding of water
and minor flooding in urban areas, roads, and small streams. This
risk will be higher in areas that receive frequent trade wind
showers or repeated afternoon activity, particularly across
interior and west to southwestern Puerto Rico. In addition, breezy
to locally strong winds may result in occasional non-thunderstorm
wind impacts, especially across exposed coastal areas and higher
elevations. Lightning risk will remain limited, although a few
thunderstorms are possible, mainly on Tuesday. Overall, impacts
are expected to be localized rather than widespread.


&&

.Long Term(Thursday through Monday)...
Issued at 200 AM AST Mon Mar 30 2026

An induced surface trough northeast of the region along with a high
pressure system well north of the region will maintain a breezy flow
from the northeast, around 15 knots on Thursday. Passing showers
will continue to move along the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto
Rico in the morning, followed by afternoon convection along the
interior and western Puerto Rico. As the trough moves just north of
the region, the winds will shift from the southeast by Friday and
the weekend. Aloft, a short wave trough arrives on Friday, which
usually will be favorable for strong thunderstorm development.
However, it looks like that upper level clouds will move from the
southwest as well. If the day stays cloudy, then it will shut down
the diurnal heating mechanism, preventing heavy rain from
developing. Since this is an evolving scenario, the confidence is
low to medium at this time. Similar conditions will prevail on
Saturday, with the influence of the upper level trough and high
clouds moving from the southwest. By Sunday and Monday, there
could 153be breaks in the cloud layer, which should allow for
more warming and thunderstorms in the afternoon for western Puerto
Rico. For these days, the risk of flooding will be elevated, with
urban and small stream flooding likely.

By the end of the period, temperatures are expected to warm up too,
so highs could climb to the low 90s for most coastal areas in Puerto
Rico and the Virgin Islands.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 845 AM AST Tue Mar 31 2026

SHRA will affect most terminals exposed to the north and across
the islands with MVFR conds (cigs 23 kft, vsby 35 SM) and brief
IFR (cigs 

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion