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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)
256 FXCA62 TJSJ 120907 AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 507 AM AST Mon Jan 12 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 507 AM AST Mon Jan 12 2026 * Localized flooding is possible from passing showers that may bring brief, heavy rain, especially overnight and in the mornings in windward areas of Puerto Rico and U.S. virgin Islands, and in the afternoons in western Puerto Rico. This could lead to ponding on roads and isolated flooding in urban areas and small streams. * Moderate risk of rip current: life-threatening rip currents are expected along the northwest, north, and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through the workweek. The risk may increase this weekend, becoming high due to stronger winds and a northwesterly swell. * Comfortable to near-seasonal temperatures will continue through midweek across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, with cooler nights through Tuesday morning, followed by a warming trend and above-normal temperatures expected toward the end of the week. && .Short Term(Today through Wednesday)... Issued at 507 AM AST Mon Jan 12 2026 Mainland Puerto Rico experienced generally quiet weather conditions through most of the overnight hours. Meanwhile, a trade wind perturbation brought passing showers across the U.S. Virgin Islands overnight, with some activity briefly reaching eastern Puerto Rico; however, most of the shower activity remained over the surrounding coastal waters. Winds were mainly from the east to east-northeast at 5 to 10 mph. Skies remained mostly clear across mainland Puerto Rico, while partly to mostly cloudy conditions prevailed over the U.S. Virgin Islands. Overnight and early morning temperatures ranged from the low 70s to the upper 60s along the coast, dropping to the upper 50s to the low 60s across the interior valleys and mountainous regions. As a mid- to upper-level trough continues to move eastward into the central Atlantic, a mid- to upper-level ridge is expected to gradually build over the northeastern Caribbean over the next few days. At the surface, however, a weak induced trough will maintain periods of showery weather across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands today and tomorrow. This pattern will keep total precipitable water values near or briefly above typical January levels, as suggested by model guidance and supported by satellite observations. Under this weather pattern, residents and visitors will observe periods of sunshine; however, the advection of clouds within the trade wind flow will result in passing showers. Periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall are most likely during the overnight and early morning hours across the U.S. Virgin Islands and windward areas of Puerto Rico, followed by limited afternoon convection mainly across western Puerto Rico. Moisture is expected to decrease somewhat by Tuesday, resulting in fewer showers. However, on Wednesday, another trade wind perturbation is forecast to increase available moisture once again. Enhanced by low-level convergence and local orographic effects, this could lead to ponding of water on roads and in poorly drained areas, particularly across eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands during the afternoon and evening hours. Overall, a limited risk of flooding is expected, though isolated instances of urban and small stream flooding cannot be ruled out on any given day. Residents and visitors are encouraged to stay informed by following the latest forecasts and updates in case conditions change. && .Long Term(Thursday through Monday)... Issued at 507 AM AST Mon Jan 12 2026 During Thursday, a deep-layer mid to upper-level trough will be well east of the Lesser Antilles, while a mid level ridge persists over the northeastern Caribbean. Trade wind showers will continue to affect the region on Thursday, with limited afternoon convection expected across western and northwestern Puerto Rico. On Friday, model guidance suggests a frontal boundary will remain north of the region, while a pre-frontal trough may enhance moisture convergence and atmospheric instability, supporting a wetter pattern on Friday. At this time, Friday appears to present the highest rainfall potential, with a limited flood risk mainly across western Puerto Rico during the afternoon hours. Isolated thunderstorm activity cannot be ruled out as mid-level temperatures cool, with 500 mb temperatures decreasing from near -4 degrees C on Wednesday to around -7 degrees C by latter part of the week. Precipitable water values are forecast to range between 1.5 and 1.8 inches from Thursday through Saturday, near to above climatological normal for this time of year, with peak moisture expected on Friday. Low-level winds will generally remain from the east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph through Friday, then shift to the east-northeast from Saturday through Monday while increasing to 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Breezy to locally windy conditions are anticipated, particularly on Saturday, which may result in loose outdoor items being blown around, especially across exposed and coastal areas. From Sunday through Monday, precipitable water values are expected to decrease to between 1.1 and 1.5 inches, with patches of near- average moisture moving across the region, promoting variable but seasonable weather conditions with passing trade wind showers and limited convective development. Ensemble guidance continues to indicate slightly above-normal temperatures across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands throughout the long-term period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 507 AM AST Mon Jan 12 2026 VFR conds expected across the terminals today. Passing -SHRA/SHRA will affect TJSJ, TIST, and TISX at times, with additional activity possible near TJPS during the afternoon, producing brief MVFR conditions. There is a limited chance of -TSRA across interior and western Puerto Rico between 16Z-23Z. A similar pattern, with less activity, is expected on Tuesday. Winds will be calm to light and variable overnight, becoming ENE-E at 10-15 kt after 13Z with higher gusts and local sea breeze variations. && .MARINE... Issued at 507 AM AST Mon Jan 12 2026 A surface high pressure moving eastward across the central Atlantic, combined with a weak surface trough northeast of the region, will maintain gentle to moderate east to northeast winds through mid- week, then shifting from the east to southeast by Thursday and Friday. This pattern will support passing trade-wind showers, mainly across the Atlantic waters, with occasional showers also moving through the Caribbean passages. By the end of the week into the weekend, strengthening northeasterly winds and the arrival of a long-period northerly swell will likely result in choppy and potentially hazardous marine conditions. Mariners are advised to continue monitoring the forecast. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 507 AM AST Mon Jan 12 2026 The moderate risk of rip currents continues today for the northwestern, northern and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico, as well as Culebra and USVI, with breaking waves around 4 feet. Similar conditions are expected to persist most of the workweek. A moderate risk indicates that life-threatening rip currents are possible within the surf zone, and beachgoers should exercise caution at all times. A low risk will prevail across southern, more protected areas; however, life-threatening rip currents can still occur near groins, jetties, reefs, and piers even when the overall risk is low. For more location-specific information, continue to monitor weather.gov/beach/sju. By next weekend, conditions will likely deteriorate due to increasing winds and the arrival of a long-period northerly swell, with the potential for a high risk of rip currents to return across most local beaches of Puerto Rico and USVI. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 507 AM AST Mon Jan 12 2026 Recent wetting rains have provided temporary relief across fire- prone areas in southern Puerto Rico, however, longer-term dryness and rainfall deficits are expected to persist. While KBDI values have decreased at some sites, fuels remain locally elevated, especially across southern Puerto Rico and Vieques, and isolated wildfire activity continues to be detected by satellite. Northeasterly winds may support additional showers through tomorrow, but winds are expected to shift to east-southeast from Wednesday through Friday. This will favor drier conditions, with pockets of below-normal moisture possible during peak fire weather hours. Although early morning rainfall may help delay fire potential on some days, locally elevated fire danger remains, warranting continued monitoring. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ CAM/YZR
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