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240
FXCA62 TJSJ 261826
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
226 PM AST Fri Dec 26 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 215 PM AST Fri Dec 26 2025

* Choppy to rough seas and life-threatening rip currents are
  expected to continue for the rest of today into the weekend,
  becoming hazardous for small craft and beachgoers. Small Craft
  Advisories and High Rip Current Risk are in effect, with High
  Surf Advisory conditions likely. Residents and visitors are
  encouraged to heed the advice of the flag warning system and
  stay onshore.

* Mostly fair conditions are anticipated for the next few days,
  with passing showers across northern and eastern portions of
  Puerto Rico and St. Thomas and St. John in the U.S. Virgin
  Islands during the night hours.

* Cooler than normal temperatures could lead to patchy fog, particularly
  over interior portions of Puerto Rico, during the morning
  commute.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 215 PM AST Fri Dec 26 2025

A very stable weather pattern prevailed throughout the morning and
into early afternoon, with mostly clear skies and a few clouds,
especially across the northern section of Puerto Rico. Colder
temperatures were observed during the morning hours, with lows in
the 60s across the interior and in the lower 70s across areas.  AS
of 11 AM, daytime temperatures are rising to the mid-80s along the
coast and slightly cooler across the mountains, according to
unofficial weather stations around the islands. The U.S. Virgin
Islands observed similar conditions, with daytime temperatures
ranging from the low 70s to the low 80s.

Similar weather conditions will persist for the rest of the day as a
surface high-pressure system extending from the western Atlantic
into the Caribbean continues to push dry, colder temperatures across
the forecast area. According to the latest derived imagery from the
GOES satellite, Precipitable water values around the islands range
between 0.80 and 1.0 inches, which is well below climatological
normals. Although conditions at the surface remained quite hostile
to shower development, recent model comparison data indicate colder
temperatures at 500 MB and lower 250 heights, suggesting an unstable
weather pattern at the upper levels. Given the expected conditions,
for tonight into Saturday, mostly stable weather will persist, with
colder nights and minimal shower and cloud activity. On Saturday
into Sunday, a surface change in winds due to an induced surface
trough well to the east of the islands and an extending surface high
pressure over the central Atlantic will aid weak easterly winds
across the islands. Under this weather pattern, the islands will
experience light to moderate winds with mostly stable conditions. On
Saturday, both model guidance (GFS and ECMWF) show an increase in RH
slightly above 50% between 700 and 850 MB. However, deep shower
activity is not forecast due to extremely dry 500-700 MB values,
which are two standard deviations below normal.

&&

.Long Term(Monday through next Thursday)...
Issued at 508 AM AST Fri Dec 26 2025

A shift in the weather pattern is expected this week. After a
relatively dry start on Monday and Tuesday, wetter conditions
return Tuesday night and persist through Friday as a weak frontal
boundary dissipates and a short-wave polar trough approaches the
region, with a surface trough reflection increasing moisture and
instability later in the week. Showers will become more frequent,
with periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall, especially
from Thursday afternoon into Friday. While widespread flooding is
not expected, localized urban and small-stream flooding will be
possible, mainly across windward and interior areas of Puerto Rico
and portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands. Confidence is moderate
that late-week rainfall will be the most impactful part of the
period.

Thunderstorm activity is expected to remain limited overall, which
is typical for this time of year, but there is a low to moderate
chance of thunderstorms Thursday into Friday as the trough
briefly enhances instability and supports isolated thunderstorm
development. Winds will remain a gentle east-southeast to
southeast breeze through Thursday, then veer to the east and
strengthen to a moderate breeze from Thursday night into Friday as
surface high pressure builds and shifts eastward over the North
Atlantic. Temperatures will trend slightly warmer from Wednesday
through New Years, with cooler conditions expected to return late
in the week. Confidence is high in the late-week increase in wind
speeds, resulting in breezy conditions at times, especially along
exposed coasts and higher elevations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 215 PM AST Fri Dec 26 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all TAF sites through
the forecast period. Surface winds will remain from the NNE at
1015 kt, with occasional gusts possible, particularly during
daytime hours. For TJBQ, mostly clear skies (SKC to FEW) are
expected for most of the period, with ceilings remaining above
FL040FL050, posing no restrictions on VIS or CIG. VCSH may affect
TISX, TIST, and TJSJ between 26/20Z and 27/12Z; however, brief MVFR
conditions cannot be ruled out within passing showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 215 PM AST Fri Dec 26 2025

A surface high pressure centered over the western Atlantic and a
frontal boundary north of the CWA will promote light to moderate
east to northeast winds over the next few days. A long-period
northerly swell will arrive tonight and spread across the local
waters and Caribbean passages, resulting in choppy to rough seas
and hazardous conditions for small craft. Hence, Small Craft
Advisories are in effect for the Atlantic offshore and coastal
waters and the Mona and Anegada Passages from tonight through late
Saturday night. Additional pulses of northerly swell are expected
early next week, which will likely once again bring hazardous
conditions for small craft across the local waters. Seasonal
trade- wind passing showers will occasionally move across the
regional waters, particularly during nighttime hours.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 215 PM AST Fri Dec 26 2025

No major changes were introduced to the beach forecast, with pulses
of a northerly swell arriving this weekend and early next week that
will deteriorate coastal conditions. NOAA NDBC 41043, located 170 NM
NNE of San Juan, reported an increase in WV during the morning
hours, the latest observation being 7.9 ft at 14 seconds. Based on
the latest model guidance, the first pulse is expected to arrive
tonight before midnight and spread across the local waters and
Caribbean passages, increasing breaking wave heights and becoming
hazardous for beachgoers. Hence, the rip current risk will remain
high along north-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, including Culebra,
and St. Thomas and St. John in the U.S. Virgin Islands through at
least late Saturday night. Beachgoers are urged to avoid these
beaches, as life-threatening rip currents will develop in the surf
zone.

As other pulses are expected to arrive later in the weekend,
residents and visitors are encouraged to check the beach forecast
before going out and heed the advice of the flag warning system.
Stay tuned for the next updates, as large breaking waves are likely
and a High Surf Advisory will be required.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for PRZ001-002-
     005-008-010-012.

VI...High Rip Current Risk from Saturday morning through late
     Saturday night for VIZ001.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM AST Saturday
     for AMZ711.

     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM AST Saturday
     for AMZ712-716-723-741-742.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LIS
LONG TERM...ICP
MARINE/BEACH FORECAST...MNG

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion