Hurricane Season runs from June 1-November 30
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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)
069 FXCA62 TJSJ 060856 AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 456 AM AST Wed May 6 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 452 AM AST Wed May 6 2026 * Limited heat risk will persist across urban and coastal areas through the end of the workweek, especially for sensitive individuals without effective cooling or adequate hydration. * Moderate rip current risk will continue along northern and eastern exposed beaches through Thursday, improve to low risk on Friday, and then return to moderate by the weekend as winds increase. * Mostly fair weather conditions are expected each morning, followed by isolated afternoon showers across interior and western Puerto Rico. && .Short Term(Today through Friday)... Issued at 452 AM AST Wed May 6 2026 The primary hazard through the forecast period will continue to be limited heat risk across urban and coastal areas, primarily affecting individuals who are extremely sensitive to heat, especially those outdoors without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. During the overnight hours, generally tranquil weather conditions prevailed across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and only a few isolated showers observed over the local waters. Weather conditions across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands remained generally quiet on Tuesday, with afternoon convection failing to develop across most interior and western sections of Puerto Rico despite modest upper-level dynamical support associated with a nearby upper-level trough. Although cooler temperatures aloft and slightly steeper lapse rates promoted marginal instability, persistent low-level ridging and pronounced dry air within the 850- 600 mb layer continued to limit vertical convective development. As a result, available low-level lift generated by daytime heating and sea breeze convergence was insufficient to overcome the stable layer, suppressing the development of deep afternoon convection. For today, conditions are expected to remain similar to those observed yesterday as southeasterly low-level winds continue transporting patches of shallow moisture across the region from time to time. Mostly fair weather conditions are expected during the morning hours, followed by localized afternoon convection developing across portions of the interior and northwestern quadrant of Puerto Rico as sea breeze convergence and diurnal heating combine with local effects. However, convective development will remain conditional and largely dependent on whether sufficient low-level moisture and lift can erode the persistent stable and dry layer aloft. Although some increase in moisture is expected, precipitable water values will remain generally near to below climatological normal levels, while lingering 850-600 mb drying will continue acting as a limiting factor for widespread or sustained convection. Therefore, any thunderstorms that develop should remain isolated and relatively brief. From Thursday into Friday, low-level winds will gradually shift from easterly to east-northeasterly as surface high pressure strengthens north of the area, while the upper-level trough continues moving eastward and ridging aloft becomes more established across the northeastern Caribbean. This evolving pattern will promote increasing atmospheric stability through the end of the workweek. Mostly shallow patches of moisture embedded within the trades will continue moving across the region from time to time, supporting isolated passing showers across eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands during the overnight and morning hours, followed by localized afternoon convection across interior and western Puerto Rico. Overall moisture content is expected to remain below normal to near climatological levels. However, limited moisture availability, persistent mid-level dry air, and weakening lapse rates aloft will continue limiting vertical convective development. As a result, any afternoon convection that develops should remain shallow and short- lived with minimal flooding concerns anticipated. && .Long Term(Saturday through Wednesday)... Issued at 452 AM AST Wed May 6 2026 A generally drier-than-normal pattern for shower development will persist through the period as mid-level ridging and subsidence dominate across the region. Moisture will remain below normal for this time of year and mostly confined below 700750 mb, limiting vertical growth and resulting in reduced shower activity. An east to east-southeasterly steering flow will prevail, supporting a consistent daily pattern with brief, quick-moving passing showers affecting windward areas during the overnight and morning hours, followed by isolated afternoon convection over interior to west- northwestern Puerto Rico, driven by local effects and mostly diurnal heating. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, but coverage will remain very limited. Minor traces of Saharan dust may be present at times, though concentrations are expected to remain low. Breezy conditions will increase into the weekend and early next week, particularly across coastal and windward areas, supporting a limited non-thunderstorm wind risk with occasional gusts up to around 25 mph or higher at times. Increasing temperatures combined with warm and humid low-level conditions will promote a limited heat risk each day, mainly affecting sensitive individuals or those with prolonged outdoor exposure and inadequate hydration. In addition, the combination of warm temperatures and increasing winds will maintain the potential for elevated fire danger, particularly across southern and coastal areas where fuels will continue to dry. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 452 AM AST Wed May 6 2026 Mainly VFR conds expected across all terminals through the fcst pd. However, brief VCSH possible across eastern terminals and TJBQ aft 06/17Z due to isolated SHRA/SHRA development. A PROB30 group remains in place for TJBQ btwn 06/17-21Z for psbl brief MVFR conds for VCTS/TSRA. Winds will remain generally E-SE at 10-15 kt with occasional higher gusts and sea breeze variations, becoming light and variable overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 452 AM AST Wed May 6 2026 Broad surface highs and frontal lows over the Atlantic will promote up to moderate easterly to east-southeasterly winds through today, then backing to become more east to east-northeast later tonight through Sunday. By the weekend, winds are also expected to increase to moderate to fresh levels across the regional waters. Seas will range between 2 and 4 feet, occasionally higher due to a combination of local wind waves and a few pulses of a small, long-period northeasterly swell spreading across the Atlantic waters. Conditions will be generally favorable for small craft, though operators should exercise caution at times due to wind-driven seas and passing showers that may produce locally higher winds and seas. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 452 AM AST Wed May 6 2026 Up to a moderate risk of rip currents (life-threatening rip currents are possible in the surf zone) are forecast to continue today for the north and east beaches of Puerto Rico, as well as for exposed beaches of Culebra. A low risk of rip currents will continue elsewhere. However, even if the risk for rip currents is low, life- threatening rip currents often occur in the vicinity of groins, jetties, reefs, and piers. A similar pattern will continue at least through at least tomorrow, Thursday, afternoon. A low risk of rip currents is then forecast to dominate across most beaches Thursday night through early Saturday. By Saturday afternoon and into the rest of the weekend and the start of the next workweek, breezier winds prompt a return of the moderate rip current risk which will gradually spread to most beaches to start the workweek. For additional information, visit: weather.gov/beach/sju. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CVB LONG TERM...ICP MARINE/BEACH...MRR
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