National Weather Service Today's Weather Impact Levels

730
FXCA62 TJSJ 070750 CCA
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
350 AM AST Fri Nov 7 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 243 AM AST Fri Nov 7 2025

* Life-threatening rip currents are likely along the Atlantic
  shorelines as a northerly swell continues to affect the local
  waters.

* The flooding risk will increase on Sunday, particularly across
  the eastern portions of Puerto Rico, as a tropical wave moves
  across the forecast area.

* After Monday, decreasing flooding risk to limited and none is
  forecast with the gradual improvement in weather conditions
  across the islands.

* Across the US Virgin Islands, passing showers to continue with a
  high risk of rip currents for Saint Thomas and Saint John today.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 243 AM AST Fri Nov 7 2025

Partly cloudy skies prevailed overnight, with passing showers
observed across the local waters, eastern Puerto Rico, and the
outlying islands. Temperatures were in the mid-70s to around 80
degrees at lower elevations and from the mid- to upper-60s at
higher elevations.

A mid-level ridge will continue to dominate the local region, with
some strengthening expected toward the end of the forecast period.
At the surface, a high-pressure system over the central Atlantic
will maintain east-southeast winds across the islands, while a
tropical wave/easterly disturbance is forecast to move through the
area on Sunday. As this feature approaches the eastern Caribbean,
moisture advection is expected to increase. The GFS model remains
more aggressive in its depiction of this moisture surge compared
to the ECMWF guidance. Nevertheless, precipitable water values are
expected to rise steadily, reaching or exceeding 2.0 inches by
Sunday.

As a result, the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms will then
increase late Saturday into Sunday as the tropical wave moves across
the local islands. Shower and thunderstorm activity will focus over
eastern Puerto Rico from Saturday night into Sunday morning,
spreading westward through the day on Sunday. Although these showers
are expected to move quickly as the 925 mb winds strengthen, the
flooding risk will increase on Sunday, with the potential for urban
and small stream flooding under the heaviest activity.

Meanwhile today and Saturday, continue to expect afternoon showers
and isolated thunderstorms across western Puerto Rico, driven by sea
breeze convergence. Elsewhere, passing showers at times,
particularly eastern Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra and the US Virgin
Islands Friday night into early Saturday morning.

&&

.Long Term(Monday through Friday)...
Issued at 243 AM AST Fri Nov 7 2025

Residual moisture from the passage of the tropical wave on Sunday
will linger across the region on Monday, maintaining a moist
environment conducive to scattered showers throughout the day and
isolated thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon.
Although mid-level instability will gradually weaken, localized
flooding remains possible, particularly over western and
northwestern portions of Puerto Rico, where diurnal and local
effects may enhance convection.

By Tuesday, model guidance continues to suggest a gradual
improvement in weather conditions as a mid- to upper-level ridge
strengthens over the area. This ridge will promote increased
atmospheric stability and a gradual drying trend. Relative
humidity values between 700 and 500 mb are expected to range
between the 50th and 25th percentiles, corresponding to near-
normal to below-normal moisture levels for this time of year.
Through at least Friday, the ridge will remain the dominant
feature, maintaining mostly stable and fair weather conditions.
Under the easterly wind flow, expect brief passing showers over
windward and coastal areas during the nighttime and early morning
hours, followed by isolated to scattered afternoon showers and a
few thunderstorms across western Puerto Rico each day, driven
mainly by local and diurnal effects. Overall, a return to a more
typical trade wind pattern is anticipated for mid-to-late week,
with below-average Relative Humidity and Precipitable Water
values, and limited flooding potential.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 243 AM AST Fri Nov 7 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites through the
forecast cycle. However, SHRA/TSRA may develop across W PR after
07/17Z, possibly affecting JBQ through about 07/22z. This may result
in brief MVFR conditions. ESE winds at 10-15 kts and typical sea
breeze variations to continue.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 243 AM AST Fri Nov 7 2025

A surface high pressure, building from the western to central
Atlantic, will result in a moderate to locally fresh east to east-
southeasterly wind flow. A north to northeasterly swell will spread
across the local Atlantic Waters and Caribbean Passages, peaking by
this morning, followed by a smaller secondary northeasterly swell
during the weekend. A tropical wave will move across the Lesser
Antilles by Saturday, reaching the USVI and PR on Sunday. This
tropical wave is expected to bring unsettled weather conditions,
and an increase in local winds and seas.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 243 AM AST Fri Nov 7 2025

A northerly swell will begin to build across the Atlantic waters
and northern coastlines, causing seas to increase and the rip
current risk to expand westward posing a risk for high rip
currents along the north and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico,
Culebra, and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands through Saturday,
where life- threatening rip currents will be possible. Weather-
wise, a few afternoon showers or isolated thunderstorms could
develop near the coast, particularly across western Puerto Rico.
If you hear thunder, move indoors immediately.

For the latest updates on coastal and marine conditions, visit
weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM AST this morning through late
     tonight for PRZ001-002-005-008-012.

     High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM AST this morning through this
     afternoon for PRZ010.

VI...High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM AST this morning through late
     tonight for VIZ001.

AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OMS
LONG TERM/MARINE/BEACH FORECAST...MMC

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion