National Weather Service Today's Weather Impact Levels

868
FXCA62 TJSJ 291800
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
200 PM AST Thu Jan 29 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 146 PM AST Thu Jan 29 2026

* There is an increasing risk of urban and small-stream flooding from
  Saturday onwards as a frontal boundary approaches from the
  west.

* For the U.S. Virgin Islands, the primary hazard will remain
  dangerous swimming conditions and hazardous seas in the near
  term. An increased risk of flooding is anticipated next week.

* There is a high change of observing rip current in beaches from
  Rincon to Fajardo, Culebra, and the northern U.S. Virgin
  Islands through Friday afternoon. Please remember, rip currents
  can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper
  water, where it becomes difficult to return to safety.

* Small Craft are urged to exercise caution along the northern
  Offshore Atlantic waters as seas can exceed 6 to 7 feet through
  tonight.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 146 PM AST Thu Jan 29 2026

Mostly sunny skies prevailed across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands during the morning hours, becoming variably cloudy during
the afternoon. Maximum temperatures reached the mid-80s across
coastal areas and the mid to upper 70s across higher elevations.
Easterly winds of 1020 mph were observed. Limited afternoon
convection will remain possible across western Puerto Rico later
today, with activity expected to dissipate around sunset.

The short-term forecast remains on track, with a sharp increase in
shower activity anticipated toward the end of the forecast
period. This evolving pattern will be driven by a deepening trough
over the western Atlantic and enhanced moisture advection under a
southerly wind flow. Overall, model guidance is in good
agreement, indicating precipitable water values approaching or
exceeding 2.0 inches by Saturday night. As a result, the intensity
and areal coverage of afternoon showers are expected to increase
by Saturday afternoon, followed by frequent passing showers with
heavy rain at times across eastern and southern Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands Saturday night. Consequently, the risk of
urban and small-stream flooding will increase from Saturday
onward.

Meanwhile, expect a few passing showers across eastern Puerto Rico
and the U.S. Virgin Islands tonight through Friday morning,
followed by another round of afternoon showers across northwestern
Puerto Rico on Friday afternoon. No significant weather threats
are expected tonight or Friday. Saturday is expected to be the
most active and wettest day of the short-term period.

&&

.Long Term(Sunday through next Wednesday)...
Issued at 146 PM AST Thu Jan 29 2026
//from previous discussion//

The long-term forecast remains tied to a frontal boundary lingering
over Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The latest global
models continue to suggest an increase in precipitable water content
to between 2.00 and 2.25 inches, well above climatological normals,
from Sunday through midweek.

At the upper levels, the region will remain positioned between a
trough over the western Atlantic and a ridge to the southeast
through late Tuesday or Wednesday. Depending on the exact placement
and evolution of these features, the combination of upper-level
dynamics and persistent low-level moisture convergence along the
frontal boundary will support widespread rainfall. This activity is
expected to increase in coverage from Sunday through Tuesday across
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Given the anticipated atmospheric setup, there is a significant
potential for heavy rainfall across the area beginning early next
week. As the front approaches on Sunday and Monday, the influx of
Caribbean moisture, south-southeasterly winds, daytime heating, and
local orographic effects will likely trigger heavy rain across
portions of northwestern and northern Puerto Rico. As the front
passes over the islands, winds will shift from the north, pushing
rainfall activity toward the eastern, southeastern, and southern
portions of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands from late Monday
through Wednesday.

Potential impacts include ponding of water on roadways, urban and
small-stream flooding, and localized flash flooding. Isolated
thunderstorms and gusty winds cannot be ruled out with the heavier
shower activity. In general, weather conditions are expected to
remain unsettled, with the primary concerns being above-normal
rainfall and localized flooding potential through at least
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 146 PM AST Thu Jan 29 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail across all TAF sites
during the next 24 hrs. VCSH or -SHRA are likely across TJBQ thru
29/23Z. Aft 29/23Z, and increase in the frequency of showers is
expected across TISX, TIST, TJSJ. SE winds around 8 to 13 kts and generally
becoming lighter after 30/00Z, then picking up again around
30/09-15Z.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 146 PM AST Thu Jan 29 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail across all terminals
during the next 24 hrs. However, SCT/BKN cigs btw FL030-060 should
continue over the PR terminals through the mid-morning hours with
mostly VCSH expected. Afternoon SHRA expected in and around TJBQ fm
29/18-23z, causing tempo MVFR to brief IFR conds. Low-level winds
will continue ESE at 8-12 kt with sea breeze variations and higher
gusts aft 29/14z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 146 PM AST Thu Jan 29 2026

Light to moderate east to southeast winds will prevail through the
end of the week as a surface high pressure shifts eastward over the
central Atlantic. A north to northwest swell will increase sea up to
7 feet across the offshore Atlantic waters and a Small Craft Advisory
is now in effect through midnight tonight. A larger, long period
northerly swell is expected to build seas up to around 10 feet. By
Monday, combining with increasing winds to produce hazardous seas
across the local waters through midweek. An increase in shower and
thunderstorm activity is also expected from this weekend into early
next week due to an approaching front and a trough.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 146 PM AST Thu Jan 29 2026

Pulses of weak northerly swells will continue to affect the
Atlantic waters through the remainder of the week, with the
strongest pulse expected through Friday afternoon. A high rip
current risk is in effect for the beaches from Rincon to Fajardo,
Culebra, and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands. Beachgoers are
encouraged to monitor the forecast for updates and changing
conditions. Please remember, rip currents can sweep even the best
swimmers away from shore into deeper water, where it becomes
difficult to return to safety.

Residents and visitors should also note that beach conditions may
further deteriorate early next week due to increasing winds and
the arrival of a stronger northwesterly to northerly long-period
swell, potentially leading to hazardous beach conditions.
Additionally, a change in the weather pattern may bring showers
and thunderstorms from this weekend into early next week,
increasing risks for beachgoers.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for PRZ001-002-
     005-008-010-012.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for VIZ001.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight AST tonight for AMZ711.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...OMS
LONG TERM....GRS
AVIATION...MMC

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion