National Weather Service Today's Weather Impact Levels

586
FXCA62 TJSJ 210631
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
231 AM AST Sat Feb 21 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 205 AM AST Sat Feb 21 2026

* Life-threatening rip currents continue across the northern
  beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra, St. Thomas, and St. John.

* Near to above-normal daytime temperatures will continue through
  the next few days. However, mostly clear skies at night will
  allow for cooler temperatures overnight.

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, breezy, sunny to partly cloudy
  skies, and passing showers are expected today.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Monday)...
Issued at 205 AM AST Sat Feb 21 2026

Clear to partly cloudy skies prevailed across the islands during the
overnight and early morning hours. Passing trade wind showers were
observed across the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern portions of
Puerto Rico. This activity is expected to continue through the rest
of the morning hours. Followed by limited shower development in the
afternoon hours over portions of central and western PR. Flooding is
not anticipated, but ponding of water on roads and in poor drainage
areas is possible. Minimum temperatures were from the upper 50s
across the higher elevations of PR, to the upper 60s and low 70s
across the lower elevations of the islands. The wind was from the
east between 8 and 12 mph with land breeze variations.

The main hazard today will be the life-threatening rip currents
along the northern beaches of PR, Culebra, St. Thomas, and St. John.
A Rip Current Statement is in effect through this evening for these
areas.

The local area will continue under the influence of a low-to mid-
level ridge, and a broad surface high pressure over the Central
Atlantic. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds,
drier air aloft, and overall stable conditions in general. Winds
will gradually turn more east to southeast late in the period as a
surface low and associated cold front moves over the Western
Atlantic. In terms of precipitation, patches of low-level moisture
embedded in the trade winds will move at times from the Tropical
Atlantic. This will promote passing showers across the USVI and
windward areas of the islands for most of the period. In the
afternoon, the combination of the available moisture content with
daytime heating, and the sea breeze convergence should lead to the
development of showers over portions of west/northwest PR. However,
flooding is not anticipated with this activity through the rest of
the weekend.

Daily high temperatures should range from the upper 80s to low
90s across the lower elevations of the islands, to the mid-70s
across the higher elevations. Minimum temperatures are expected to
remain from the upper 50s across the higher elevations to the low
70s across coastal areas. Winds will continue from the east to
east- southeast in general between 15 and 20 mph, with sea/land
breeze variations during the day/night.

&&

.Long Term(Tuesday through Saturday)...
Issued at 205 AM AST Sat Feb 21 2026

Unstable conditions are expected at the beginning of the long-
term period as a pre-frontal trough, associated with an
approaching frontal boundary, moves northwest of the area and
north of Hispaniola. Meanwhile, a broad high-pressure system over
the Central Atlantic continues to promote a southeasterly wind
flow across the region. Under these conditions, a weak pressure
gradient resulting from this interaction will cause winds to
become light and variable through at least Wednesday. Precipitable
water content will remain above normal during this period, with
values reaching 1.50 to 1.90 inches. This moist and unstable
pattern will favor the development of afternoon convective
activity across central and northwestern Puerto Rico. Temperatures
at the 500 mb level will range between -7 to -8C; combined with
instability aloft from an upper-level trough, this could enhance
the potential for a few isolated thunderstorms. During this
period, the risk of excessive rainfall remains limited, though
ponding of water in urban and poor drainage areas and minor
flooding may occur in the aforementioned areas.

By Wednesday, winds are expected to shift from the east in response
to a surface high pressure building over the western Atlantic. As
this high migrates toward the central Atlantic, winds will gradually
increase. From Thursday onward, a more stable weather pattern will
return to the local area as the surface high strengthens over the
Central Atlantic and a mid-to-upper level ridge establishes over
the region. Therefore, passing showers carried by the trade winds
are anticipated to affect windward portions of the U.S. Virgin
Islands and eastern Puerto Rico during the early morning hours,
followed by afternoon convection across the interior and western
Puerto Rico. This pattern is expected to prevail through the end
of the period.

Temperatures at the 925 mb level will remain above climatological
values each day due to the combination of available moisture and
southeasterly wind flow. Highs are forecast to reach the mid-to-
upper 80s in lower elevations and the upper 70s to low 80s across
the higher elevations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 205 AM AST Sat Feb 21 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals
during the next 24 hours. However, SHRA en route from the Leeward
terminals may cause brief MVFR cigs across the USVI terminals thru
21/20z, meanwhile, locally induced -SHRA expected to develop in and
around TJSJ/TJBQ btw 21/16-22z. East winds expected to increase
around 15 kt with stronger gusts and sea breeze variations aft
21/14z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 205 AM AST Sat Feb 21 2026

Marine conditions will continue to improve across the local
waters as a northerly swell subsides, resulting in seas up to 6
feet across the Atlantic waters during the day. However, small
craft operators are still urged to exercise caution across most
local waters due to seas up to 6 feet and winds up to 20 knots.
Seas are forecast to deteriorate once again on Tuesday as another
northerly swell reaches the local waters and builds seas up to 8
feet. Mariners are encouraged to stay tuned for further updates.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 205 AM AST Sat Feb 21 2026

A fading long-period northerly swell will continue to generate
life-threatening rip currents across the northern beaches of the
islands. A High Rip Current Risk remains in effect for the north-
facing beaches of St. Thomas, St. John, Puerto Rico, and Culebra
through this evening. Breaking waves up to 6 feet and higher at
times are expected along these beaches. A moderate risk of rip
currents is expected on Sunday across most east and north facing
beaches of the islands. Another northerly swell will once again
deteriorate coastal conditions by the middle of the upcoming
workweek, resulting in dangerous rip currents along the northern
coasts of the islands. Beachgoers are urged to stay out of these
exposed waters, continue monitoring forecast updates, and follow
all local advisories, warnings, and lifeguard and official guidance.
For more information, visit: weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for PRZ001-002-005-
     008-010-012.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for VIZ001.

AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSR
LONG TERM....GRS
AVIATION...DSR
MARINE/BEACH...LIS/DSR

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion