National Weather Service Today's Weather Impact Levels

190
FXCA62 TJSJ 251901
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
301 PM AST Sat Oct 25 2025

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Cloudiness and isolated to scattered showers carried by the
  trade winds will continue this afternoon from the interior into
  western Puerto Rico, and across the local waters and eastern
  Puerto Rico tonight.

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, isolated to scattered showers from
  time to time, particularly overnight into the morning hours.

* A moderate risk of rip currents will continue for most beaches of
  Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through the remainder of
  the weekend and early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(this evening through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM AST Sat Oct 25 2025

The cloud cover from the now Hurricane Melissa, far SE (around 535
miles from Cabo Rojo) continued over most of the region while
showers and t-storms associated with it`s outer rainbands gradually
dissipated during the morning hours. With relatively drier air
moving in from the southeast, weather remained under a more seasonal
pattern under SE winds up to around 15 mph, with higher gusts and
sea breeze variations. Official and unofficial stations reported
that heat indices have reached the low 100s aross coastal and urban
areas of the islands with isolated stations reaching the mid 100s.
Isolated to scattered showers (and possible isolated t-storms under
SE flow) will continue to develop this afternoon from interior into
western Puerto Rico, and downwind of the local islands and El
Yunque. Under SE flow showers over the local waters can also reach
the USVI, eastern and southern Puerto Rico tonight. Isolated
thunderstorms are still possible over the waters, especially over
the offshore waters. Southeasterly flow will continue during the
forecast period. This along with diurnal heating (depending on how
cloud cover diminishes) and local effects will result in afternoon
showers and isolated t-storms along the interior to west-southwest
PR each afternoon, as well as downwind of the local islands and El
Yunque, prompting a limited to elevated excessive rainfall risk and
a limited lightning risk. Passing showers continue to be forecast
across windward sectors each day. Up to a limited heat risk
continues to be forecast for coastal and urban areas during the
short term period. Lows are forecast in the upper 70s to low 80s at
lower elevations of the islands, and in the mid 60s to mid 70s at
higher elevations of PR.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 431 AM AST Sat Oct 25 2025

The long-term forecast remains on track, with slight changes for
the latter part of next week. As mentioned in previous
discussions, uncertainty has remained high for this period due to
Tropical Storm Melissa trajectory. The latest deterministic
guidance of global models continue to suggest Melissa moving
across Jamaica and shifting north- northeastward between eastern
Cuba and Haiti. The latest deterministic guidance of the GFS and
the ECMWF show more confidence (around 50%) of PWAT values between
2.0 - 2.2 inches, above climatological normal. But variability
increases Wednesday onwards as some members are tending to more
seasonal values (1.8 - 2.0 inches) compared to previous runtime.
This disparity between the GFS and the ECMWF is due to the
trailing moisture of Tropical Storm Melissa, which the GFS locates
over the region while the ECMWF does not suggest this high
moisture content across the CWA. Hence, for at least Tuesday and
Wednesday, the advective pattern may persist, with SE-S winds
pooling tropical moisture into the region. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms may move from time to time during the morning over
windward sections, while afternoon convection over the mountain
ranges of Puerto Rico could increase the flooding potential (if
cloud cover remains limited to none). Due to previous shower
activity (particularly over eastern and southern portions of
Puerto Rico), saturated soils may contribute to the enhancement of
flooding potential. Hence, a limited to elevated flooding risk
will remain over the aforementioned areas. On Thursday and Friday,
a more seasonal weather pattern is likely, with showers and
thunderstorms developing over the mountain ranges into
western/northwestern portions of Puerto Rico. Additionally, latest
guidance suggest the approach of an upper- level low to the
Caribbean Basin by the end of the period, increasing moisture
content and instability. Nevertheless, due to high uncertainty,
the flooding and lightning risk will remain limited for the rest
of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 256 PM AST Sat Oct 25 2025

Mainly VFR conditions. Afternoon VCSH will affect most terminals
with VCTS to TS possible mainly for TJBQ until around 23Z, which
can promote brief MVFR conditions. VCSH/possible VCTS affecting
mainly eastern and southern coasts tonight. SE winds generally at
10 to 15 kts, with higher gusts and sea breeze variations, will
continue before becoming lighter with land breezes after 25/23Z.
Winds picking up again from the SE after 25/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 256 PM AST Sat Oct 25 2025

Moderate easterly winds will prevail through early next week, then
gradually turn southeasterly to southerly around Tuesday into
midweek under the influence of Hurricane Melissa, which may track
north of Hispaniola, and a building surface high pressure system
across the eastern Atlantic. Seas are expected to increase to
exercise caution levels by Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms
associated with peripheral moisture of Melissa will continue across
our regional waters and passages, leading to periods of localized
hazardous marine conditions, particularly overnight. Mariners are
urged to exercise caution and remain vigilant across these waters.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 256 PM AST Sat Oct 25 2025

A moderate risk of rip currents is expected to prevail through early
next week at most beaches in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands. Beachgoers should exercise caution, as life-threatening rip
currents are possible along the surf zones. Additional hazards
include showers and thunderstorms developing across coastal areas
each afternoon, therefore, beachgoers should stay alert for any
sudden changes in weather conditions and seek shelter immediately if
they hear thunder.

Around midweek, there is a possibility that the risk of rip currents
could increase to high across some north-facing beaches of Puerto
Rico, leading to hazardous swimming conditions due to pulses of
energy generated by Tropical Cyclone Melissa, although this will
depend on its final track. Beachgoers are encouraged to continue
monitoring the beach forecast for any updates or adjustments. Please
refer to weather.gov/beach for detailed information in your area of
interest.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

MRR/YZR

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion