National Weather Service Today's Weather Impact Levels

152
FXCA62 TJSJ 150634
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
234 AM AST Sun Mar 15 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 203 AM AST Sun Mar 15 2026

* Limited ponding of water on roadways and poorly drained areas is
  anticipated today, particularly over eastern and western PR.

* Breezy to windy conditions from today into early next week will
  create hazardous marine and coastal conditions across Puerto
  Rico and the US Virgin Islands. Small Craft Advisories and a
  High Risk of Rip Currents are in effect for many local waters
  and beaches.

* Warmer temperatures are forecast by early next week with
  limited rainfall potential.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Tuesday)...
Issued at 203 AM AST Sun Mar 15 2026

Overnight, partly cloudy skies prevailed across Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands. Passing showers affected mainly eastern
and northern Puerto Rico, with radar-estimated rainfall totals
between 0.10 and 0.30 inches. Winds remained light and variable,
while temperatures stayed in the 70s across coastal areas and 60s
across higher elevations.

Today (Sunday), a trade-wind perturbation will move across the region,
leading to a gradual increase in wind speeds and moisture. This
pattern will promote periods of passing showers across windward
areas, particularly eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands, during the early morning and afternoon hours. A limited
flooding risk is anticipated for today, meaning ponding of water
on roads and in poorly drained areas is possible. Rainfall amounts
are expected to remain light to moderate. Breezy to locally windy
conditions will develop, especially across the U.S. Virgin
Islands and coastal areas of Puerto Rico. By Sunday evening, a
drier air mass will move into the region, leading to a decrease in
shower activity overnight. This drier air mass will reduce the
overall flooding potential across the islands, though brief
passing showers may still occur Monday.

By Tuesday, a more typical seasonal pattern will prevail. Expect a
mix of sunshine and brief passing showers, mainly affecting
windward areas during the night and morning hours, followed by
isolated afternoon activity across western interior sections.

&&

.Long Term(Wednesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 203 AM AST Sun Mar 15 2026

A broad surface high pressure system over the central Atlantic
will dominate the regional pattern early in the period. This will
maintain easterly trade winds on Wednesday, gradually veering to
east-southeasterly and south-southeasterly by Saturday as the
pressure gradient relaxes with a frontal boundary approaching from
the northwest. A mid-level ridge will persist through Friday
before being displaced southeastward by a broad trough dipping
into the northern Caribbean late in the period. Moisture will
remain mostly shallow through midweek, generally below 700 mb,
briefly extending near 650 mb Thursday afternoon into the night
before gradually deepening toward the weekend. As a result,
conditions will transition from relatively drier-than-normal on
Wednesday to more variable moisture Thursday and Friday, with a
gradual increase in shower activity by Saturday. Temperatures will
remain within typical seasonal ranges, with slightly warmer
afternoons locally and a gradual warming trend into the weekend
likely responding to the increasing southerly wind component.

Hazards through most of the period will be mainly wind-driven.
Breezy to occasionally windy conditions early in the period may
create an elevated wind risk across exposed and coastal areas and
will promote fast-moving trade wind showers across windward
sectors, particularly overnight and during the morning hours.
These showers may occasionally produce brief downpours but will
generally move quickly across the area. As winds weaken and
moisture deepens toward the weekend, hazards may gradually shift
toward a slightly higher risk of locally heavier showers, which
could increase the potential for excessive rainfall and localized
ponding in urban and poorly drained areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 203 AM AST Sun Mar 15 2026

All TAF sites should experience VFR condt. VCSH possible at TJSJ,
TIST, and TJBQ through 15/14Z. After 15/17Z VCSH will affect
TJBQ and TJSJ. E winds gradually increasing after 15/14Z btwn
13-20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and sea breeze variations aft
15/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 203 AM AST Sun Mar 15 2026

Surface high pressure building over the western and central Atlantic
will result in an increasing pressure gradient, leading to moderate
to locally fresh easterly winds that will gradually strengthen
today. These wind-driven seas will result in choppy to rough
conditions across all exposed local waters for the latter part of
the week. From Monday through midweek, fresh to strong easterly
winds will make additional areas of the regional waters hazardous,
with seas building to 7 to 9 feet and winds up to 25 knots and
higher gusts. Small Craft Advisories are currently in effect for the
offshore Atlantic waters and the Mona Passage, starting Sunday
morning, with Advisories spreading to coastal areas and the Anegada
Passage by Sunday evening. Small craft operators should stay tuned
for further updates, as additional Small Craft Advisories may be
required.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 203 AM AST Sun Mar 15 2026

The beach forecast remains on track. As mentioned in the marine
section, strengthening winds today are expected to generate choppy
to rough seas across the regional waters, leading to breaking waves
around 6 feet and a high potential of rip currents along the surf
zone. As a result, a Rip Current Statement has been issued for
northern and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico, including Vieques and
Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands through Monday night. Residents
and visitors are urged to monitor conditions and heed the advice on
the flag systems. Beachgoers should remain alert to changing coastal
conditions and continue monitoring the latest updates, as hazardous
beach conditions will likely persist over the next few days, and an
extension of the Rip Current Statement may be required.

Although a moderate risk continues elsewhere, beachgoers should
exercise caution, as life-threatening rip currents remain possible
along the surf zone. For additional information, please visit:
weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 203 AM AST Sun Mar 15 2026

The fire weather threat is LOW, but localized higher fire weather
conditions can not be ruled out today. Winds will gradually
become stronger but due to previous rains, RH values remain near
to above criteria. Regardless, we encourage partners to continue
monitoring conditions for any changes in the forecast later
today.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM AST this morning through late
     Monday night for PRZ001>003-005-008-012-013.

VI...High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM AST this morning through late
     Monday night for VIZ001-002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 2 AM AST
     Wednesday for AMZ711-723.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Monday to 2 AM AST Wednesday for
     AMZ712-735.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM AST
     Wednesday for AMZ716-726-733-741.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MMC
LONG TERM...ICP
MARINE/BEACH FORECAST...ICP/MMC

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion