National Weather Service Today's Weather Impact Levels

951
FXCA62 TJSJ 142009
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
409 PM AST Tue Apr 14 2026

.UPDATE...

Rainfall activity have decreased across the region as patches of drier
air from the subsident side of the upper-level trough moves
over the region. However, the development of additional rainfall
activity may result localized flooding each afternoon, especially
across the interior and western Puerto Rico.

At this time, the Flood Watch is cancelled for all of Puerto Rico
and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 215 PM AST Tue Apr 14 2026/

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 400 PM AST Tue Apr 14 2026

* An unstable weather pattern will persist this afternoon, with
  showers and thunderstorms developing across portions of Puerto
  Rico and the USVI. The Flood Watch remains in effect through
  Wednesday morning.

* A wet pattern, associated with the remnants of the trough, will
  likely continue each afternoon through the weekend.

* A high risk of rip currents is present along the northwestern,
  north, and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, including Culebra,
  through at least Wednesday afternoon.

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, variable and unsettled weather
  conditions will prevail, driven by increasing atmospheric
  instability and shifting wind patterns.

&&

.Short Term (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 400 PM AST Tue Apr 14 2026

As mentioned in previous forecast discussions, the forecast for this
unsettled and wet weather pattern associated with a deepening cut-
off low has been challenging, mostly due to the positioning and
timing of the heaviest rainfall activity. However, Vieques, Culebra,
the USVI, and southwestern/southern Puerto Rico have received
between 2 and 4 inches of rain over the last 24 hours. The Rio
Guanajibo went out of its banks late last night, flooding roads in
areas of Hormigueros and Cabo Rojo. During the morning hours, a line
of strong showers and thunderstorms developed just offshore from San
Juan through Fajardo, but later moved over the waters and continued
to converge and redevelop in areas between Vieques, Culebra, and the
USVI.

For the rest of the afternoon, expect these areas to remain active.
However, satellite data showed cloud clearing during the morning
hours. This allowed the sea breeze to develop, which has led to
showers and isolated thunderstorms over interior Puerto Rico. Expect
this activity to persist through the evening hours. The positioning
of the upper-level trough places the western part of the forecast
area near the boundary between subsidence and favorable dynamics.
Therefore, the strength of convection will depend on the exact
placement of that subsidence boundary. However, strong thunderstorms
developed between Caguas and the San Juan/Carolina metro area, where
a Special Weather Statement was issued early this afternoon. Despite
the forecast challenges, antecedent conditions with saturated soils
and elevated streamflows continue to increase the flooding threat,
as any persistent heavy rain will quickly result in rapid river
rises and excessive runoff that could lead to urban and river
flooding, with possible flash flooding and landslides, particularly
over interior and southwestern Puerto Rico. However, this activity
is not expected to be widespread and should remain more localized in
nature.

For the remainder of the short-term forecast, the trough will
meander over the area and combine with above-normal moisture. With
this setup, active afternoons are likely, with the development of
strong thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rain, frequent
lightning, and gusty winds. As mentioned earlier, soils are
saturated and streamflows remain elevated; therefore, any additional
persistent heavy rain will maintain an elevated flooding risk.
Please continue to monitor the forecast throughout the week.

&&

.Long Term (Friday through next Monday)...
Issued at 400 PM AST Tue Apr 14 2026

An unsettled weather pattern is expected Friday through the weekend
into early next week as a short wave trough sinks into the
Caribbean. At the surface, high pressure over the western to central
Atlantic will promote moderate to fresh ESE to easterly winds Friday
and Saturday, becoming easterly Sunday and slightly ENE by Monday.
The pressure gradient will remain uneven, with stronger winds across
eastern areas and weaker flow farther west, supporting faster moving
showers in the east and slower storm motion in the west. Moisture
will increase Friday into the weekend, with PWAT values above normal
and at times exceeding climatological maxima, before slightly drier
air filters in late Sunday into Monday. Aloft, a jet streak will
lift over the area by Monday, while mid level temperatures remain
modestly cool. This pattern will support periods of convection and
isolated to locally scattered thunderstorm development across the
region. Confidence is medium, as details depend on the timing and
placement of the trough and deeper moisture.

Flooding will be the primary hazard, followed by lightning and
breezy conditions. Showers and isolated to locally scattered
thunderstorms are expected daily, generally favoring eastern Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands overnight into the morning, then
shifting westward each afternoon based on the latest model guidance.
The greatest risk will focus over northwestern Puerto Rico Friday
and Saturday, western Puerto Rico on Sunday, and southwestern Puerto
Rico by Monday. Faster storm motion over eastern areas may limit
rainfall totals, but slower moving convection in western sectors
could enhance flooding impacts. Breezy conditions will persist due
to the general wind flow and may be locally enhanced by thunderstorm
downdrafts. Soils may remain saturated, which could further increase
the risk of flooding, landslides, and rapid river rises. This
pattern will likely disrupt outdoor plans at times. Conditions
should gradually improve late Sunday into Monday, though some
uncertainty remains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 400 PM AST Tue Apr 14 2026

MVFR condt across most TAF sites from 14/18Z through 14/22Z, except
TJPS. Unstable weather conds will continue to produce SHRA/TSRA
across TJSJ and TJBQ. VCTS near TIST and TISX through 15/03Z. Recent
PIREPs rpt LGT/MOD TURB, especially nr TJSJ/TIST/TISX. TURB may
persist through the night at terminal sites. Winds will remain light
and vrb with higher gusts at times.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 400 PM AST Tue Apr 14 2026

A surface high pressure system over the eastern to central Atlantic,
interacting with a stationary frontal boundary north of the region,
will promote light to gentle winds tonight. Pulses of northerly
swell spreading across the Atlantic waters are maintaining seas
around 5 to 6 feet across exposed areas, where small craft should
exercise caution over the next several days. The combination of the
front and the trough is increasing showers and thunderstorms across
the local waters, creating locally hazardous marine conditions
through at least midweek. Winds are expected to become gentle to
moderate from the east to southeast from Wednesday onward.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 400 PM AST Tue Apr 14 2026

Based on current buoy observations, the forecast has been adjusted,
and a high risk of rip currents is now in effect for the
northwestern, north, and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico,
including Culebra. The Rip Current Statement is in effect from now
through at least 6 PM AST Wednesday (tomorrow) due to energy
arriving from pulses of a northerly swell. Beachgoers are urged to
heed the advice of lifeguards, as well as beach patrol flags and
posted signs. Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, a moderate risk of rip
currents persists where rip currents are still possible, while a low
risk remains along the southern beaches of the islands. Increasing
winds from midweek onward could lead to a moderate risk of rip
currents persisting along north-exposed beaches through at least
next Saturday. Residents and visitors are encouraged to exercise
caution, especially along exposed coasts. For more specific area
details, refer to weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for PRZ001-002-
     005-008-010-012.

VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CVB
LONG TERM....ICP
AVIATION...MMC

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion