National Weather Service Today's Weather Impact Levels

894
FXCA62 TJSJ 211757
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
157 PM AST Sat Feb 21 2026

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 157 PM AST Sat Feb 21 2026

* Moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents will continue
  tonight and Sunday along the north and east-facing beaches of
  Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques, as well as St. Thomas,
  St. John, adjacent islands, and St. Croix.

* Near to above normal temperatures will persist through early next
  week, with warm days and seasonably mild nights.

* East to southeast winds will bring passing showers to windward
  areas through Monday, with isolated afternoon showers possible
  across interior and western Puerto Rico.

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, breezy, sunny to partly cloudy
  skies, and passing showers the rest of today and Sunday.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Monday)...
Issued at 157 PM AST Sat Feb 21 2026

Mostly clear skies prevailed today across Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands, with maximum temperatures reaching the mid- to upper
80s and heat indices climbing into the mid-90s in some lower-
elevation areas. East to east-southeast winds between 10 and 20 mph,
with higher gusts and localized sea breeze variations, supported a
few brief showers across the local waters, the USVI, and windward
locations in PR earlier in the day.

The main hazard tonight and through Sunday remains the moderate risk
of life-threatening rip currents. Thus, life-threatening rip
currents are possible along the north and east-facing beaches of
Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques, as well as across St.
Thomas, St. John, adjacent islands, and St. Croix. Although wave
energy is gradually subsiding compared to previous days, the
persistent trade wind flow and seas will maintain hazardous surf
conditions, particularly for inexperienced swimmers and those
entering the water near piers, jetties, and reef gaps.

Moderate to locally fresh east-to-east-southeast winds, shifting to
southeasterly by Monday, will continue as a surface high-pressure
system over the central Atlantic sustains the regional pressure
gradient. This pattern will continue to advect shallow moisture
patches across the islands, resulting in passing trade wind showers,
mainly during the overnight and morning hours over windward areas.
During the afternoon, local effects and sea breeze convergence may
trigger isolated to scattered showers across interior and western
Puerto Rico. Most rainfall activity is expected to be brief and
light to moderate in intensity.

A mid- to upper-level ridge will dominate the short-term pattern,
promoting relatively stable conditions and limiting widespread or
organized convection. Near to above normal temperatures will persist
through the next several days. Daytime highs will range from the
upper 80s to near 90 degrees across lower elevations and urban
areas, while higher elevations remain in the mid 70s. Overnight lows
will generally fall into the upper 50s to low 60s in the mountains
and into the low to mid 70s along coastal areas. Mostly clear skies
overnight will allow for radiational cooling, supporting seasonably
mild nighttime conditions despite the continued warm pattern.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)...
Issued at 205 AM AST Sat Feb 21 2026

Unstable conditions are expected at the beginning of the long-
term period as a pre-frontal trough, associated with an
approaching frontal boundary, moves northwest of the area and
north of Hispaniola. Meanwhile, a broad high-pressure system over
the Central Atlantic continues to promote a southeasterly wind
flow across the region. Under these conditions, a weak pressure
gradient resulting from this interaction will cause winds to
become light and variable through at least Wednesday. Precipitable
water content will remain above normal during this period, with
values reaching 1.50 to 1.90 inches. This moist and unstable
pattern will favor the development of afternoon convective
activity across central and northwestern Puerto Rico. Temperatures
at the 500 mb level will range between -7 to -8C; combined with
instability aloft from an upper-level trough, this could enhance
the potential for a few isolated thunderstorms. During this
period, the risk of excessive rainfall remains limited, though
ponding of water in urban and poor drainage areas and minor
flooding may occur in the aforementioned areas.

By Wednesday, winds are expected to shift from the east in response
to a surface high pressure building over the western Atlantic. As
this high migrates toward the central Atlantic, winds will gradually
increase. From Thursday onward, a more stable weather pattern will
return to the local area as the surface high strengthens over the
Central Atlantic and a mid-to-upper level ridge establishes over
the region. Therefore, passing showers carried by the trade winds
are anticipated to affect windward portions of the U.S. Virgin
Islands and eastern Puerto Rico during the early morning hours,
followed by afternoon convection across the interior and western
Puerto Rico. This pattern is expected to prevail through the end
of the period.

Temperatures at the 925 mb level will remain above climatological
values each day due to the combination of available moisture and
southeasterly wind flow. Highs are forecast to reach the mid-to-
upper 80s in lower elevations and the upper 70s to low 80s across
the higher elevations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 157 PM AST Sat Feb 21 2026

VFR conds expected during the next forecast period. Brief VCSH are
possible across TISX, TIST, TJSJ, TJBQ utl 21/23Z, then quiet
conds tonight and Sunday morning. Aft 22/17Z, VCSH will be
possible near TJSJ, TJBQ. Winds becoming lighter aft 21/23Z, then
E to SE winds at around 13 to 16 kts with gusts up to 20 to 25
kts aft 22/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 132 PM AST Sat Feb 21 2026

A fading northerly swell will dissipate by late this evening,
allowing seas to subside gradually. Surface high pressure over the
central Atlantic will maintain moderate to locally fresh east to
east-southeast winds across the regional waters through Sunday.
Winds will gradually veer to the southeast and south on Monday and
Tuesday ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. By midweek, the
arrival of the front will increase shower activity, possibly
leading to thunderstorms, and shift winds. In addition, a long-
period northerly swell is expected to move into the Atlantic
waters by the middle of next week, leading to deteriorating marine
conditions and building seas. Mariners should monitor later
forecasts for updates on increasing seas and changing weather
conditions.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 157 PM AST Sat Feb 21 2026

A High Rip Current Risk remains in effect for the north-facing
beaches of St. Thomas, St. John, north-exposed beaches of Puerto
Rico and Culebra until 6 pm AST this evening due to breaking
waves up to 6 feet and higher at times. By tonight and Sunday,
a moderate risk of rip currents is expected across most areas,
expect southern central Puerto Rico. Similar conditions are
forecast to prevail during the first part of the week.

Another northerly swell will once again deteriorate coastal
conditions by the middle part of next workweek, resulting in
life-threathening rip currents along the northern coasts of the
islands. Beachgoers are urged to stay out of these exposed waters,
continue monitoring forecast updates, and follow all local
advisories, warnings, and lifeguard and official guidance. For
more specific location information, visit: weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001-002-
     005-008-010-012.

VI...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for VIZ001.

AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE...CAM
LONG TERM....GRS
AVIATION...YZR

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion