National Weather Service Today's Weather Impact Levels

573
FXCA62 TJSJ 140907
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
507 AM AST Wed Jan 14 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 505 AM AST Wed Jan 14 2026

* Seasonal conditions will prevail across the region with passing
  trade-wind showers affecting the windward and coastal areas of
  Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands during the morning and
  evening hours.

* A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents will prevail
  along the north and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra
  and the U.S. Virgin Islands through Friday. Then, a high risk
  is anticipated Saturday and Sunday.

* Marine conditions will also deteriorate this weekend due to a
  northwesterly swell and stronger winds.

* Above-normal temperatures are expected over the next few days
  under a southeasterly wind flow.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Friday)...
Issued at 505 AM AST Wed Jan 14 2026

Shower activity continued through the evening across northwestern
Puerto Rico, where an extended period of rainfall resulted in
amounts exceeding one inch. After midnight, activity transitioned to
trade-wind showers moving inland from the local waters, affecting
windward sections and producing rainfall totals near one-half inch
across portions of eastern and northeastern Puerto Rico, including
coastal areas of the San Juan metropolitan region. Overnight low
temperatures so far have ranged from the upper 50s across higher
elevations to the upper 70s across the U.S. Virgin Islands and
surrounding islands. Winds over land have remained mostly light and
variable.

A mid-level ridge, the dominant synoptic feature, lingering to the
east will continue influencing the local environment today and
tonight, maintaining subsidence aloft and a capped moisture profile
initially below 700 mb. Early this morning, low-level moisture
remains patchy rather than organized in a continuous plume, with
land-breeze and trade-wind convergence occasionally pooling higher
moisture along windward coastal areas, particularly across eastern
Puerto Rico, enhancing passing showers across eastern Puerto Rico,
Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. PWAT values start the
period modestly above normal (slightly above the the percentile)
but are expected to drop rapidly to near seasonal levels by early
afternoon as drier air mixes in. At the surface, high pressure
over the North Atlantic will continue shifting eastward,
maintaining a moderate east-southeast breeze today that will
gradually veer toward the southeast over the next 1236 hours,
providing a steady influx of low-level tropical moisture that will
sustain trade-wind showers moving from the coastal waters inland
and support afternoon, heating- and convergence-driven showers
over northwestern Puerto Rico. Overall rainfall impacts are
expected to remain limited, with only brief and very localized
ponding possible in poor drainage areas. A warming trend will
begin today under the prevailing east- southeasterly flow and
ridge influence, resulting in above-normal daytime highs and
potentially warmer-than-normal nighttime lows.

As the mid-level ridge lifts northeastward, deep tropical moisture
will gradually expand across the region as the trade-wind cap
weakens, peaking Friday afternoon before decreasing rapidly Friday
night as drier air moves in. Warm air aloft will limit widespread
thunderstorm development through most of the period; however, Friday
afternoon will offer the most favorable window for deeper showers as
mid-level temperatures briefly cool and daytime heating peaks,
supporting enhanced shower activity over the interior and western
portions of Puerto Rico, with an isolated thunderstorm possible.
Winds are expected to weaken Thursday night into early Friday,
allowing for slower-moving showers and localized flooding potential,
then increase again later Friday while shifting from southeasterly
to easterly and eventually east-northeasterly as a frontal boundary
approaches and lingers northwest of the area. Shower activity will
remain more frequent across eastern Puerto Rico on Thursday, then
shift toward the interior and western sections on Friday. Overall
flooding risk will remain localized; however, increasing wind speeds
Thursday into Friday will elevate wind-related hazard risks,
especially across exposed coastal and higher terrain areas. A
warming trend will persist through most of the period, with some
cooling suggested Friday night.

&&

.Long Term(Saturday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 505 AM AST Wed Jan 14 2026

By Saturday, the interaction between a surface high-pressure system
over the central Atlantic and a surface frontal boundary over the
western Atlantic will tighten the pressure gradient, resulting in
east to northeast breezy to locally windy conditions across the
area. These winds may cause loose outdoor items to be blown
around, particularly in exposed and coastal locations. Moisture
content is expected to be below average during the early morning
hours as a drier air mass, with precipitable water (PWAT) values
around 1.10 inches, moves across the region. Moisture will
gradually increase during the day, allowing for passing morning
trade wind showers over windward areas and afternoon convection
from the interior into western Puerto Rico. Passing showers across
the U.S. Virgin Islands. However, activity should move quickly
due to stronger winds, limiting rainfall accumulations and keeping
the flood risk low.

On Sunday morning, winds will remain breezy but are expected to
gradually weaken throughout the day. Sunday is anticipated to be
the driest day of the period, with precipitable water values
decreasing to between 1.2 and 1.5 inches and patches of near-
average moisture moving across the region. These conditions will
support more variable but seasonable weather, with passing trade
wind showers and limited afternoon convective development due to
local effects. From Monday through Wednesday, a subtropical jet
streak near 250 mb will establish a more favorable dynamic
pattern, supporting upper-level divergence and the development of
an induced surface trough. As a result, an increase in shower
activity is expected across the forecast area under an easterly to
northeasterly low-level wind flow. The potential for isolated
thunderstorms will also increase as mid to upper-level temperatures
cool. Based on the latest model guidance, temperatures aloft are
expected to decrease from around -5 degrees C on Monday to near
-7.5 degrees C by Wednesday. Forecast updates should continue to
be monitored as uncertainty remains. At this time, each afternoon
from early to midweek carries a limited flood risk, mainly due to
the potential for ponding of water on roads and in poorly drained
areas.

Ensemble guidance continues to indicate above-normal surface
temperatures across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands
through the long-term period, at least from Saturday through
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 505 AM AST Wed Jan 14 2026

VFR conds will prevail across all TAF sites thru the fcst period.
Periods of -RA/-SHRA will affect the USVI terminals and TJSJ thru
14/1314Z, with brief MVFR vsby/cigs psbl. Aft 14/1722Z, SHRA
activity will shift inland, mainly impacting TJPS and TJBQ. After
14/22Z, SHRA will again affect the USVI and TJSJ. Sfc winds will be
lgt/vrb early, incrg to 1015 kt and bcmg EESE btwn 14/1322Z, then
returning to lgt/vrb thereafter. No sig or prolonged avn impacts
fcst.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 505 AM AST Wed Jan 14 2026

A surface high pressure across the central Atlantic will maintain
gentle to moderate east to southeast winds through the end of the
workweek. By Saturday, strengthening east to northeast winds, and the
arrival of a long-period northerly swell will likely result in
choppy to rough seas, leading to hazardous marine conditions during
the weekend.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 505 AM AST Wed Jan 14 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents continues today along the northern
and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico, as well as Culebra, St. Croix,
St. Thomas, and St. John with breaking waves around 4 to 5 feet
due to a small pulse of energy. The moderate risk will prevail
through Friday, then conditions are likely to deteriorate Saturday
afternoon through Sunday night as winds increase and a long-
period northerly swell arrives. This may lead to a return of a
high risk of rip currents across most local beaches of Puerto Rico
and the U.S. Virgin Islands. For more location-specific
information, continue to monitor weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ICP
LONG TERM/MARINE/BEACH FORECAST...YZR

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion