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059
FXCA62 TJSJ 090614
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
214 AM AST Sat May 9 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 212 AM AST Sat May 9 2026

* As we continue to move closer to the summer season, warm to hot
  temperatures will prevail. Heat indices above 100 degrees area
  anticipated for many coastal and urban areas in Puerto Rico and
  the Virgin Islands. This level of heat could affect the most
  sensible population, especially when outdoors or without effective
  cooling.

* Breezy conditions will persist trough the next several days.
  Unsecured objects could blow around.

* Across the US Virgin Islands, breezy winds may bring a few
  showers at times, but in general, fair and hot conditions are
  expected today.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Monday)...
Issued at 212 AM AST Sat May 9 2026

The night was mostly tranquil across the local islands. Some showers
managed to move over portions of eastern Puerto Rico, but
accumulations were minimal. Temperatures dropped to the 70s along
coastal areas and the 60s in the mountains.

A mid to upper level ridge is holding across the western Caribbean
Sea, maintaining a dry air mass above 700 mb. At the surface, high
pressure is centered just north of the islands, causing breezy
easterly winds, at speeds of 14 to 16 knots. The most recent
satellite derived precipitable water imagery show that the air mass
surrounding the northeastern Caribbean is mostly dry, with below
normal moisture content. However, the enhanced trade winds will
bring some small areas of showers at times, reaching the Virgin
Islands and eastern Puerto Rico. No risk of flooding is anticipated.
Also, although showers are expected to develop this afternoon, the
sea breeze gradient will likely develop closer to the coast, with
the heaviest activity forming along the Mona Channel. The pattern
will be quite similar on Sunday, with dew point depression still
around 10 to 15C, although the winds will gain a southerly
component as the high pressure migrates eastward.

Then, by Monday, as the mid level ridge moves just north of the
local islands, moisture will be allowed to reach up until 700 mb.
This will increase the frequency of showers, with passing showers
affecting eastern Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands and stronger
showers forming in the interior and west in the afternoon hours.
However, the risk of flooding will stay low, as strong winds will
likely prevent significant accumulation.

In terms of temperatures, while it will be hot, with heat indices
above 102 degrees in some coastal areas, a northeast wind flow in
the mid and upper levels is maintaining values closer to normal.
Still, highs will be in the mid-80s to low 90s in coastal and urban
areas. Stay hydrated and look for shade when possible. Remember to
look out for vulnerable population and pets as well.

&&

.Long Term(Tuesday through Saturday)...
Issued at 212 AM AST Sat May 9 2026

The long-term outlook will be dominated by drier-than-normal
conditions through the first half of the period, as a mid-level
ridge and atmospheric subsidence prevail across the region. This
pattern will suppress shower formation across Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands through at least Thursday. At the surface, a
high-pressure system over the central Atlantic will maintain
moderate to locally fresh east-southeasterly winds. These winds will
drag patches of moisture and quick-moving showers into windward
areas during the overnight and morning hours, followed by isolated
afternoon convective activity over interior and west-northwestern
Puerto Rico, mainly driven by daytime heating and local effects.
During this period isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, with
limited coverage across these areas. Rising temperatures, combined
with warm and humid low-level conditions, will result in a limited
heat risk each day, possibly increasing by the end of the workweek.
This will primarily affect sensitive individuals or those with
prolonged outdoor exposure and inadequate hydration. By the end of
the period, an increase in moisture is forecast to move into the
area, raising the potential for more widespread showers and
thunderstorms across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 212 AM AST Sat May 9 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail through the forecast
period. VCSH are expected along the USVI and PR terminals, but
impacts to operations should be very limited to none. SHRA expected
to develop along W PR after 18Z, mostly staying south of TJBQ. Winds
will be from the E at 12-16 kts, gusting up to 20-25 kts, mostly
from 14-22Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 212 AM AST Sat May 9 2026

A surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to
strengthen and is expected to extend into the Central Atlantic,
promoting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds across the
regional waters. Choppy seas may create locally hazardous
conditions, small craft must exercise caution.  Breezy trade winds
will persist into early next week, with occasional winds reaching up
to 20 knots. A weak, long-period northeasterly swell may arrive by
next mid-week, spreading across local waters and passages.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 212 AM AST Sat May 9 2026

The beach forecast remains on track. Strengthening winds will
increase the risk of rip currents to moderate today and persist for
the next several days, particularly along the northern and eastern
beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Meanwhile, the
rest of the area will remain at a lower risk. Although the risk
isn`t high, beachgoers must exercise caution, as life-threatening
rip currents remain possible along the beaches under the moderate
risk. By next mid-week, a weak long-period northeasterly swell may
arrive and spread across local waters, resulting in breaking waves
up to 5 feet, occasionally higher. Residents and visitors are
encouraged to stay tuned for further updates.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES...ERG
LONG TERM....GRS
MARINE/BEACH...MNG

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion