Your Number One Source for Real-Time Puerto Rico Weather & Hurricane Tracking Updates

425
FXCA62 TJSJ 141801
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
201 PM AST Thu May 14 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 155 PM AST Thu May 14 2026

 * A warming trend is forecast from tomorrow into Saturday across
   the islands, with heat index values expected to range between
   100 and 108 degrees.

 * Improving coastal conditions are expected tonight into Friday across
   most coastal areas as the northeasterly swell gradually
   subsides, although a moderate risk of rip currents will
   continue for several local beaches.

 * A more unsettled weather pattern is forecast from Friday into Sunday
   as an upper-level trough sinks closer to the forecast area,
   increasing the potential for showers and isolated thunderstorms
   across portions of the islands.

 * In addition, particles associated with Saharan dust are
   expected to reach the local islands from Friday into Saturday,
   potentially affecting air quality and causing reduced
   visibility, especially for individuals with allergies or
   asthma.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 155 PM AST Thu May 14 2026

Variable weather conditions prevailed throughout the morning as a
patch of moisture moved into the region, bringing fast-moving
showers steered by the trade winds. Doppler radar and satellite
imagery showed these showers affecting primarily southern, eastern,
and central Puerto Rico, with rainfall accumulations ranging from
0.30 to 0.75 inches. Maximum temperatures reached the upper 80s to
low 90s across coastal and urban areas, while the central mountain
range saw temperatures between the upper 70s and mid-80s. Winds
remained out of the southeast at 15 to 20 mph, with higher gusts and
sea breeze variations. Although a Heat Advisory was in effect today
for coastal and urban areas, heat indices remained between 100 and
105F, slightly below the advisory threshold due to persistent cloud
cover.

For the remainder of the day, shower coverage will increase across
the interior and northern-northwestern Puerto Rico, driven by
daytime heating and local effects. However, these showers are
expected to move quickly, resulting in minimal accumulations. Across
the U.S. Virgin Islands, streamer activity will develop and move
offshore over the Anegada Passage.

For the rest of the period, mainly fair weather is anticipated to
prevail under east-southeasterly winds, influenced by a surface high-
pressure system in the central Atlantic. Occasional patches of
moisture will continue to be dragged into the area, promoting
periods of showery weather, especially during the overnight and
morning hours. During the afternoon, local effects, low-level
convergence, and terrain influences may enhance rainfall, leading to
periods of moderate to locally heavy rain across the interior and
northwestern Puerto Rico. Consequently, ponding on roads, reduced
visibility, and isolated urban or small-stream flooding will remain
possible through Saturday.

By late Friday into Saturday, traces of Saharan dust will reach the
northeastern Caribbean. Current model guidance suggests the highest
concentrations will stay further south over the Caribbean Sea,
limiting the impact on the local islands; however, hazy skies and
minor reductions in air quality and visibility remain possible. Warm
to hot temperatures will persist through next week, potentially
leading to elevated heat indices across urban and coastal areas.
This heat could pose a risk to sensitive individuals. Residents and
visitors are urged to stay hydrated, seek shade, and monitor local
conditions to ensure safety during peak temperature hours.

&&

.Long Term(Sunday through next Wednesday)...
Issued at 155 PM AST Thu May 14 2026

The inherited forecast remains on track, with Sunday expected to be
the driest and most stable day of the long-term period. Residual
concentrations of Saharan Air Layer (SAL) dust will linger mainly
south of the islands through Sunday, according to the latest Dust
model guidance. Although relatively drier and more stable conditions
are anticipated, available low-level moisture and local effects will
still promote periods of passing showers, particularly during the
overnight and morning hours across eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands. Afternoon shallow convection is expected across
western Puerto Rico.

Beginning Monday, moisture and instability will gradually increase
across the region as an upper-level trough amplifies over the
northeastern Caribbean and potentially evolves into a cut-off low
near the Bahamas by midweek. Latest model guidance indicates 250 mb
heights gradually lowering starting Monday, while 500 mb
temperatures cool to around -7 to -8 degrees Celsius from Tuesday
through Thursday. At the same time, precipitable water (PWAT) values
are forecast to remain near climatological normals initially before
gradually increasing. As deeper tropical moisture spreads across the
islands during the first half of the workweek, shower coverage and
frequency are expected to increase. By Wednesday and beyond, the
combination of higher moisture content and cooler temperatures aloft
will support the most unstable conditions of the forecast period.
This pattern will favor more organized afternoon convection with
isolated to scattered thunderstorms across western and northwestern
Puerto Rico, with activity potentially extending into portions of
the San Juan Metropolitan Area. Periods of locally heavy rainfall
may result in minor urban and small-stream flooding, particularly in
windward and urban areas. Overall, active weather is anticipated
during the afternoon hours through much of the long-term forecast
period.

Temperatures are expected to remain warm throughout the period as
southeasterly winds persist across the region. Combined with
increasing moisture, heat indices will likely exceed 100 degrees
Fahrenheit across lower elevations and urban areas, resulting in a
limited to locally elevated heat risk each day. Residents and
visitors should continue to monitor future forecasts, as Heat
Advisory issuances may become necessary.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 155 PM AST Thu May 14 2026

FR conditions are expected to prevail across all TAF sites through
the period. VCSH to SHRA will continue across the local islands
this afternoon and may result in reduced VIS and lower CIGs,
mainly near TJMZ and TJBQ. Mountain obscurations will remain
possible near the strongest showers. Winds will continue from the
E-SE at 15 kt or less with occasional gusts near SHRA activity.
After 14/23Z, winds are forecast to gradually diminish, becoming
light from the E-SE overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 155 PM AST Thu May 14 2026

Marine conditions across the regional waters will be driven by a
broad surface high-pressure system located over the Central
Atlantic, maintaining a moderate to locally fresh east-to-
southeasterly wind flow through at least the weekend. Under this
prevailing pattern, seas are expected to remain generally between
3 and 5 feet across most local waters, resulting in choppy
conditions at times, particularly across the offshore Atlantic
waters and local passages. Similar marine conditions are expected
to persist through Sunday.

However, by Monday, model guidance suggests a slight increase in
wind speeds and a corresponding increase in wind- driven seas. As
a result, seas could build up to around 6 feet across portions of
the northeastern offshore waters and local passages, while winds
may increase up to 20 knots at times. Although hazardous marine
conditions are not expected to become widespread at this time,
small craft operators should continue to exercise caution,
especially across exposed Atlantic waters and passages where
choppy seas and locally higher wave conditions may develop early
next week.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 155 PM AST Thu May 14 2026

Breezy east to east-southeasterly winds will continue across the
regional waters through at least today, maintaining hazardous
marine and surf conditions across many local beaches, particularly
along the north and east-facing coastlines through early this
evening. These conditions, combined with a lingering northeasterly
swell and locally generated wind waves, will continue to support
life-threatening rip currents across the surf zone. However,
marine and coastal conditions are expected to gradually improve
tonight into early Friday as the northeasterly swell slowly
subsides, allowing the rip current risk to transition from high to
moderate across several beaches. Although conditions should remain
favorable for beachgoers, persons should continue exercising
caution due to the continued risk of dangerous rip currents.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ001-002-005-
     008-012.

     Heat Advisory until 4 PM AST this afternoon for PRZ001>003-005-
     007-008-010>013.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for VIZ001-002.

     Heat Advisory until 4 PM AST this afternoon for VIZ001-002.

AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRS
LONG TERM....MMC
AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, KEY MESSAGES...LIS

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion