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FXCA62 TJSJ 020828
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
428 AM AST Mon Mar 2 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 428 AM AST Mon Mar 2 2026

* Breezy to windy conditions are expected across the islands for
  much of this week, especially midweek towards the weekend.
  Unsecured items could blow around.

* Fresh to strong winds producing choppy to rough seas, are expected
  to continue across the offshore Atlantic and Caribbean Waters, as
  well as in the local passages, where Small Craft Advisories are in
  effect. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in
  hazardous conditions.

* A moderate risk of rip currents will persist to start the
  workweek across most of the local beaches. Up to a high risk of
  rip currents is forecast by midweek for northern eastern beaches
  of the islands as a northeast to easterly swell arrives and
  breezy to windy conditions persist.

* Winds will steer patches of moisture and showers along with
  patches of drier air towards the islands. Low concentrations of
  Saharan Dust will also filter into the region.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Wednesday)...
Issued at 428 AM AST Mon Mar 2 2026

Variable to showery weather continued over the eastern half of
the region under up to breezy ESE steering flow. Since midnight,
radar estimated rainfall accumulations indicate 0.20 to 0.60 over
eastern Puerto Rico and Vieques, and minimal accumulations over
the USVI and Culebra. Stations over interior PR reported minimum
temperatures in the low to mid 60s. Stations over lower elevations
of the islands reported lows in the low to mid 70s, with the
exception of some lower elevation sectors of northern and
southwestern PR which reported lows in the upper 60s. Patchy fog
was also detected over some areas of PR.

A broad surface high pressure over the central Atlantic will promote
breezy to locally windy ESE flow today as it tightens the local
pressure gradient. These winds will continue to steer patches of
moisture and drier air towards the islands today. Current model
guidance and satellite imagery suggests a patch of moisture (with
PWAT values up to around 1.70 in), showers and cloudiness moving
over the islands with a patch of drier air (with PWAT values of an
inch or less) over the Anegada Passage and moving towards the USVI
to start the morning. As the patch of drier air continues moving
over the islands, another patch of moisture (with PWAT values up
to around 1.60 in) will reach the eastern region this afternoon,
moving over the region late in the afternoon and tonight.
Afternoon showers are possible mainly over interior to W-NW Puerto
Rico. As the short term period progresses, breezy to windy
steering flow will gradually back to become more easterly late
tomorrow and more east-northeasterly late Wednesday as another
broad surface high builds over the western to central Atlantic
maintaining a tight pressure gradient. Breezy to windy conditions
will remain the dominant feature of the forecast.

Most available moisture will remain mainly below 850 mb, only at
time during the short term period rising to the mid levels as
patches of moisture move over the islands. A weak mid to upper
level trough will also move mainly north of the islands tomorrow.
However, 500mb temperatures are forecast to remain relatively
warm, limiting vertical shower development. Under the above
mentioned steering flow, intervals of patches of moisture and
drier air will continue to move over the islands tomorrow,
Tuesday, prompting a similar weather pattern as showers and
cloudiness are steered towards the region, and afternoon showers
are possible over interior to W-NW PR. Current model guidance
suggests a more broad patch of moisture (with PWAT values near
1.70 inches) affecting the region on Wednesday under the more E to
ENE steering flow. Low concentrations of Saharan Dust are forecast
to continue over the region today and tomorrow, gradually
decreasing tomorrow night and Wednesday. 925 mb temperatures are
forecast at normal to above normal values today and tomorrow,
becoming more normal on Wednesday.

&&

.Long Term(Thursday through Monday)...
Issued at 428 AM AST Mon Mar 2 2026

Over the long term, a strong high-pressure system will develop over
the western Atlantic, then shift and become anchored in the north-
central Atlantic. This will maintain a prevailing northeasterly wind
flow and a tight pressure gradient throughout the forecast period.
As a result, breezy to windy conditions will be a primary hazard,
with wind risk levels fluctuating between limited and elevated,
particularly along the coastal areas of the islands. Residents are
advised to secure loose outdoor objects, as strong winds may
displace or damage them. Also, windy conditions will lead to choppy
to rough seas and life-threatening rip currents.

The latest model guidance indicates that moisture levels will remain
fragmented and variable on Thursday, fluctuating between near-
seasonal and slightly above-normal values based on climatological
data, as patches of moisture move within the trade wind flow.
Precipitable water values are forecast to range between 1.30 and
1.65 inches. This pattern will support frequent passing showers,
especially during the overnight and morning hours across windward
areas, followed by afternoon convection over the interior and
western Puerto Rico each day. By Friday, moisture levels are
expected to stabilize as moisture moves in from the northeast,
potentially increasing the frequency or intensity of showers.
Although strong winds should limit rainfall accumulation and reduce
flood potential, current data suggests a limited flood threat for
eastern Puerto Rico in the mornings and for western Puerto Rico in
the afternoons. Showers may lead to ponding in areas with poor
drainage. Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, mostly sunny to partly
cloudy skies are expected, with passing showers primarily occurring
during the nighttime and early morning hours. Winds will also
remain the primary hazard throughout the long-term period across the
islands.

The temperature outlook indicates near-average temperatures for the
duration of the period. Daytime maximum temperatures are expected to
range from the low to mid-80s at lower elevations and from the mid-
70s at higher elevations. Overnight lows are expected to range from
the 70s to the 60s, respectively.

In summary, breezy to windy conditions, variable moisture levels,
and frequent passing showers are expected throughout the forecast
period, with localized flooding risks in some areas. The main
hazards will be focused on winds, marine, and beach conditions,
including rough seas and hazardous coastal conditions. Residents and
visitors should continue to monitor the forecast for updates.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 428 AM AST Mon Mar 2 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will continue. However periods of fast
moving pockets of VCSH/-SHRA will continue to affect the
terminals. These showers will be steered by breezy to locally
windy ESE flow, mainly at 12 to 18 kts with higher gusts.
Afternoon, between 02/16-23z, showers are possible mainly over
interior to W-NW. Winds decreasing after 01/23z to 5 to 12 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 428 AM AST Mon Mar 2 2026

The broad surface high across most of the Atlantic will continue to
tighten the local pressure gradient, promoting fresh to locally
strong east-southeast winds. Another surface high will build over
the western to central Atlantic from Monday into midweek, sustaining
fresh to strong winds. Expect winds to become east-northeasterly by
midweek. These conditions will maintain choppy to rough seas across
the regional waters through much of the week, especially across the
Atlantic and Caribbean Offshore waters and local passages. Small
Craft Advisories and Small Craft Should Exercise Caution statements
are in effect.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 428 AM AST Mon Mar 2 2026

Breezy to locally windy conditions will persist throughout the week
result in choppy seas, increasing the risk of life-threatening rip
currents across all beaches of PR (except the west coast).
Therefore, a moderate risk of rip currents is expected to persist
across much of the local beaches of the islands. Life-threatening
rip currents remain possible, particularly near piers, jetties,
and reef channels.

Looking ahead, confused seas due to fresh to strong trade winds and
a northeast to easterly swell will likely further deteriorate
coastal conditions and potentially increase the risk of dangerous
rip currents, particularly along north and east-facing beaches of
the islands from midweek onwards.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Thursday for AMZ711-723-733-
     741.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES...MRR
LONG TERM...YZR
MARINE/BEACH FORECAST...MMC

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion