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414
FXCA62 TJSJ 251847
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
247 PM AST Sat Apr 25 2026

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 241 PM AST Sat Apr 25 2026

* Pulses of northeasterly swell will maintain the possibility of
  the formation of life-threatening rip currents along PR and
  USVI`s north and east-facing beaches through early next week.
  Please exercise caution.

* The potential for showers and isolated thunderstorms will
  increase across PR and the USVI from Sunday afternoon into
  early next week, especially on Monday and Tuesday, with
  increased flooding and lightning risk.

* The PR and USVI regions are forecasted to experience above-
  normal temperatures starting Sunday, with heat indices reaching
  or exceeding 100F.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Monday)...
Issued at 241 PM AST Sat Apr 25 2026

In general, the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico had mostly
clear skies, with most of the rain across the surrounding waters.
Maximum temperatures ranged from the upper-80s to the low-90s at
coastal sites and from the upper-70s to the low-80s at mountain
sites. The winds were calm to light and variable, influenced by
sea breeze variations.

Although this afternoon most of the islands will observe little
or no rain under warmer-than-normal temperatures and heat indices
due to the southerly wind flow, showers and isolated thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out along portions of the Cordillera and northern
PR, as well as moving inland across the US Virgin Islands.
Scattered showers are possible tonight as southerly winds bring
additional moisture to the southern and eastern parts of Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Instability is forecast to increase as a mid- to upper-level
trough moves closer to the region from the west, with local
moisture slowly increasing by Sunday and peaking around Monday or
Tuesday, as model guidance now indicates. The weak steering wind
flow will continue across the region. Under the aforementioned
weather pattern, the best chance of strong thunderstorms is on
Monday as moisture and instability increase, when the flooding
rain risk is elevated. Still, the limiting factor on Sunday is a
somewhat drier mid-level air mass, which could inhibit widespread
activity, even though available moisture will increase at lower
levels.

A southeasterly flow will bring warmer temperatures on Sunday and
Monday, leading to afternoon showers and possible isolated
thunderstorms in the interior. Increased moisture and heating are
likely to enhance rainfall, raising the risk of locally heavy rain
and potential excessive rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 300 AM AST Sat Apr 25 2026

The forecast remains on track as abundant moisture from the
Caribbean Sea streams into the region. This influx is driven by an
approaching mid-to-upper-level trough from the west and an induced
surface trough, both of which are significantly increasing local
instability. Meanwhile, a dominant surface high pressure across the
central Atlantic will maintain a light to variable south-
southeasterly wind flow through most of the period.

Under this pattern, there is an enhanced potential for strong
showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. Scattered showers are expected
across the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico during the
morning, followed by vigorous afternoon convection across the
interior and northern Puerto Rico, including the San Juan metro
area. Recent analysis shows precipitable water (PWAT) values well
above climatological values, peaking near 2.25 inches. While
moisture levels will decrease slightly by Wednesday to between 1.75
and 2.00 inches, they remain unseasonably high. This unstable
environment will promote daily showers and isolated thunderstorms,
particularly during the afternoon hours over northern and interior
Puerto Rico, as the upper-level trough deepens over the northeastern
Caribbean. A gradual improvement in weather conditions is expected
by the end of the workweek as drier air begins to filter in.

Warm to hot conditions will persist throughout the week due to the
prevailing south-southeasterly flow. Temperatures at the 925 mb
level are forecast to remain well above normal through Friday.
Maximum surface temperatures will range from the upper 80s to low
90s in coastal and urban areas, and the low to mid-80s in higher
elevations. Due to the combination of high humidity and southerly
winds, heat indices will likely surpass 100F daily. Residents and
visitors are strongly encouraged to prioritize hydration and limit
prolonged sun exposure to remain safe during this period of
excessive heat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 241 PM AST Sat Apr 25 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to persist. Light to moderate
southeasterly flow will can steer -SHRA towards windward terminals
during the terminals. Through around 26/00Z, -SHRA/+SHRA can develop
and affect the northern terminals, this could result in brief MVFR
conditions. SE winds up to around 14 kts, with sea breeze
variations, will become light and variable overnight with land
breeze variations before increasing again from the SE up to around
14 kts after 26/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 241 PM AST Sat Apr 25 2026

A weak surface trough will form north of the islands while a weak
surface high builds over the Atlantic, shifting into the central
Atlantic during the weekend. This pattern will promote light to
moderate southerly winds today, before easing again through early
next week. Pulses of small long-period northeasterly swell will
arrive occasionally across the local Atlantic Waters and Caribbean
Passages through early next week.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 241 PM AST Sat Apr 25 2026

Attention beach enthusiasts! While enjoying the beautiful north-
facing beaches from Rincon to Fajardo, and the northern shores of
Culebra, Vieques, St. Croix, St. Thomas, St. John, and nearby
islands, please stay informed about the potential for rip
currents. These conditions may be present for some time. As we
experience occasional swells from the northeast, it`s a great idea
to keep an eye on beach updates. Stay safe and have a fantastic
time soaking up the sun!

Great news! South-facing beaches in Puerto Rico and the US Virgin
Islands have a low risk of rip currents for safe enjoyment!

Keep an eye out for possible afternoon thunderstorms across
portions of PR, which could bring strong, gusty winds and
lightning.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

MORNING CREW...MRR/CAM
EVENING CREW...MMC/DS

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion