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104
FXCA62 TJSJ 140606
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
206 AM AST Sat Mar 14 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 142 AM AST Sat Mar 14 2026

* Mostly sunny conditions are expected today, although a few
  localized showers may still filter over eastern PR and some
  showers developing during the afternoon hours across western
  Puerto Rico.

* Increasing winds are expected late today into next week,
  leading to hazardous marine and beach conditions.

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, occasional passing trade-wind
  showers will continue, with a drying trend expected throughout
  the day.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Monday)...
Issued at 142 AM AST Sat Mar 14 2026

Overnight conditions remained generally tranquil across Puerto Rico
and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Skies were mostly clear, with only
isolated passing trade-wind showers affecting most waters and some
coastal areas. Temperatures remained in the upper 60s to mid 70s
along the coasts and in the 60s across higher terrains, while
winds were light and variable. No hazardous weather was observed.

Today is expected to be the driest and most stable day of the
short-term period, with high confidence in limited rainfall coverage.
The latest guidance indicates precipitable water values falling
to near the 25th percentile, accompanied by reduced mid-level
humidity and slightly warmer mid-level temperatures, a combination
that promotes a more stable atmospheric profile. Under this drier
air mass, mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies will prevail. Only
brief, shallow trade-wind showers are expected across windward
sectors during the morning, with isolated afternoon development
over western Puerto Rico due to local effects. The probability of
measurable rainfall will remain low, and no flooding risk is
anticipated. Meanwhile, easterly trade winds will strengthen as a
high-pressure system builds over the western Atlantic, leading to
breezy conditions by afternoon. While no significant hazards
expected, occasional gusts may affect outdoor activities and
marine conditions as we head into Sunday.

On Sunday, a gradual increase in moisture is expected as another
patch of moisture moves into the region. Precipitable water values
are forecast to rise to around 1.50 inches or near to slightly
above normal values for this time of the year, which will support
a higher frequency of passing showers embedded in the trades.
Despite limited instability, periods of showers are likely across
eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands during overnight
and morning hours, followed by isolated to scattered afternoon
activity over western Puerto Rico. As rainfall coverage increases,
the flooding threat will rise to limited, meaning localized urban
and poor-drainage flooding will be possible, particularly where
showers repeatedly affect the same areas. Breezy to locally windy
conditions will persist, increasing the risk of minor impacts such
as blowing unsecured objects and choppy marine and coastal
conditions. Residents and visitors should monitor updates,
especially those planning outdoor or marine activities Sunday into
early next week.

&&

.Long Term(Tuesday through Saturday)...
Issued at 142 AM AST Sat Mar 14 2026

A broad high pressure will be present over the central Atlantic to
start the long term period, and will result in breezy to windy E to
ESE winds. Wind speeds at 925 mb will be above normal to start the
period, resulting in breezy to locally windy conditions. Unsecured
items could blow around. Up to an elevated wind risk is forecast to
start the long term period for coastal areas. As low pressure
systems move into the western Atlantic and continue displacing the
broad high eastward, the pressure gradient will gradually relax over
our region during the second half of the week, a limited wind risk
is still forecast at least through Thursday. Winds will continue
mainly from the E to ESE through the period. Mid-level atmospheric
conditions are expected to remain generally stable throughout the
forecast period. Model guidance indicates that 700500 mb lapse
rates will be below normal to low end normal values, with 500 mb
temperatures remaining near their climatological normals to slightly
above normal. While an upper-level trough may develop northeast of
the area during the period, its main instability will largely bypass
the local region. As a result, conditions will be marginally stable,
which will limit the development of deep convection and instead
favor shallow trade wind showers. Despite this, the breezy to windy
E to ESE flow will steer showers and shallow moisture patches toward
windward areas. Shallow moisture patches arriving over the islands
will keep precipitable water (PWAT) values around normal but with a
general drying trend, with some variability linked to the moist and
dry patches. This will result in passing showers across windward
areas, particularly during the overnight and morning hours across
eastern PR and the USVI. Diurnal heating, sea breeze convergence and
local effects will fuel afternoon convective showers over the
interior to western and northwestern PR, as well as lines of showers
developing from the local islands. Although the fast steering flow
will limit rainfall accumulations, ponding of water is possible on
roads and in poorly drained areas. 925 mb temperatures will stay
near normal but will be on a general warming trend due to less cloud
cover and the E to ESE flow. Patchy fog is possible in interior
sectors of PR during the overnight hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 AM AST Sat Mar 14 2026

VFR condt across all TAF sites. VCSH possible at TJSJ, TIST, and
TJBQ through 14/14Z. After 14/17Z VCSH will affect TJBQ, TJSJ, and
TJBQ. E-NE winds btwn 10-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and sea
breeze variations aft 14/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 142 AM AST Sat Mar 14 2026

Today, surface high pressure building over the western and central
Atlantic will result in an increasing pressure gradient, leading to
moderate to locally fresh easterly winds that will strengthen
further from Sunday onward. These wind-driven seas will lead to
choppy to rough sea conditions across all exposed local waters from
Sunday into the upcoming workweek. From Monday through midweek,
fresh to strong easterly winds will make additional areas of the
regional waters hazardous, with seas building to 7 to 8 feet and
winds up to 25 knots with higher gusts. Small Craft Advisories are
currently in effect for the offshore Atlantic waters and the Anegada
Passage starting midday Sunday. The Small Craft Advisory will then
extend over the offshore Caribbean waters by Monday. However,
small boat operators should stay tuned for further updates, as
additional Small Craft Advisories may be issued.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 142 AM AST Sat Mar 14 2026

There is a moderate risk of rip currents today across most of the
northern exposed beaches of Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands,
while a low risk persists for the southern coast. Although beach
conditions will remain generally manageable for experienced
swimmers, visitors are urged to exercise caution, particularly near
jetties, rocks, and other structures.

From Sunday and early next week, coastal conditions are expected to
deteriorate gradually. Strengthening easterly winds will generate
choppy to rough seas across the regional waters, increasing wave
action along exposed beaches. As a result, the risk of rip currents
is expected to increase to high along many northern and eastern
exposed beaches of the islands by Monday.

Beachgoers should remain alert to changing coastal conditions and
continue monitoring the latest forecasts and statements. For
additional information, please visit: weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 142 AM AST Sat Mar 14 2026

Today`s fire weather treat will be LOW, but localized higher
fire weather conditions are possible. Winds will gradually become
stronger but due to previous rains, RH values will remain near to
above criteria. Regardless, drying conditions expected today. At
this time an RFD will not be issued, but we encourage partners to
continue monitoring conditions in the coming days, particularly
by Monday.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 2 AM AST Wednesday for
     AMZ711-723.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Monday to 2 AM AST Wednesday for
     AMZ733.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...MMC
LONG TERM...MRR
MARINE/BEACH FORECAST...CVB

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion