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751
FXCA62 TJSJ 081825
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
225 PM AST Fri May 8 2026

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 225 PM AST Fri May 8 2026

* Warmer-than-normal temperatures will persist, with heat indices
  reaching or exceeding the upper 90s to 100 degrees F,
  particularly in urban and coastal areas of PR and the USVI.

* Strengthening winds will promote a moderate risk of rip currents
  along the north and east-facing beaches of PR, Culebra, and the
  USVI through next week, along with choppy marine conditions
  across the local waters.

* Locally induced afternoon showers are expected to develop each
  day over portions of western PR.

* Across the USVI, mostly fair weather conditions will persist,
  however, passing trade wind showers may occur during the night
  and early morning hours.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 225 PM AST Fri May 8 2026

As the upper-level trough exited the area and a drier-than-normal
air mass settled in, mostly fair weather conditions prevailed
across the forecast region this morning and early afternoon. The
12Z TJSJ sounding showed PWAT values around 1.30 inches, which is
considered below normal for this time of year. Additionally, a
limited heat threat remains across the urban and coastal areas of
the islands. As observed at several surface weather stations, warm
conditions have persisted, with heat indices reaching the upper
90s and even the lower 100s. Winds have been blowing mainly from
the east to east-northeast at around 12 to 18 mph, with occasional
higher gusts and typical sea breeze variations. This afternoon,
expect some cloudiness developing and showers confined over the
southwestern Puerto Rico, if any.

Over the short-term period, a mid-level ridge will remain the
dominant feature, promoting mostly stable conditions across the
region. The latest satellite-derived precipitable water values
and model guidance indicate values around 1.5 inches or less,
which is below normal for this time of year. At the surface, a
high-pressure north of the region will promote breezy conditions
over the weekend. This flow will steer occasional shallow moisture
patches across the islands, bringing brief, fast-moving showers
to windward sections of the USVI and eastern Puerto Rico during
the overnight and early morning hours. Each afternoon, isolated to
scattered showers are expected to develop over portions of
western Puerto Rico through the weekend. The flood threat and
lighting risk will remain minimal to very low.

Overall, fair weather conditions are expected, with localized
afternoon showers over western Puerto Rico and the primary concern
being the persistent heat risk. The 925 mb temperature guidance is
suggesting values in the near normal to above normal through the
weekend. Expect daytime highs in the mid to upper 80s degrees F
in coastal and urban areas, with heat indices reaching or exceeding
the upper 90s to 100 degrees F.

&&

.Long Term(Monday through Friday)...
Issued at 339 AM AST Fri May 8 2026

A generally drier-than-normal pattern for shower development will
persist through the period as mid-level ridging and subsidence
dominate across the region. Moisture will remain below normal for
this time of year and mostly confined below 700750 mb, limiting
vertical growth and resulting in reduced shower activity. An east to
east-southeasterly steering flow will prevail, supporting a
consistent daily pattern with brief, quick-moving passing showers
affecting windward areas during the overnight and morning hours,
followed by isolated afternoon convection over interior to west-
northwestern Puerto Rico, driven by local effects and mostly diurnal
heating. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, but coverage
will remain very limited. Minor traces of Saharan dust may be
present at times, though concentrations are expected to remain low.

Breezy conditions will increase into the weekend and early next
week, particularly across coastal and windward areas, supporting a
limited non-thunderstorm wind risk with occasional gusts up to
around 25 mph or higher at times. Increasing temperatures combined
with warm and humid low-level conditions will promote a limited heat
risk each day, mainly affecting sensitive individuals or those with
prolonged outdoor exposure and inadequate hydration. In addition,
the combination of warm temperatures and increasing winds will
maintain the potential for elevated fire danger, particularly across
southern and coastal areas where fuels will continue to dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 225 PM AST Fri May 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected across all TAF terminals. Winds will
remain from E-ENE around 12 to 18 kts with occasional higher gusts
around 15 to 20 kts, becoming light and variable overnight. VCSH
over TIST and TISX are possible during the overnight period. From
09/14Z, winds are expected to increase again and some VCSH are
possible across TJBQ.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 225 PM AST Fri May 8 2026

A strengthening surface high pressure over the western Atlantic
will promote moderate to locally fresh east-to-northeast winds
across the regional waters. As a result, choppy marine conditions
are expected due to increasing winds over the weekend. Breezy
trade winds will persist into early next week, with sustained
winds of 15 to 20 knots and occasional higher gusts. Seas will
range between 3 and 5 feet, occasionally reaching up to 6 feet.
Small craft operators should exercise caution across portions of
the local waters.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 225 PM AST Fri May 8 2026

This afternoon and tonight, a low risk of rip currents will
persist across all beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands. However, life-threatening rip currents can still occur
near groins, jetties, reefs, and piers. Over the weekend,
increasing winds will promote a moderate risk of rip currents
across north and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands, resulting in life-threatening rip currents as
waves break at the shore. For additional information and location-
specific rip current details, visit weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 225 PM AST Fri May 8 2026

No rainfall have been seen across the southern sections of Puerto
Rico so far today and drier air mass over the region is allowing
relative humidity values to drop into critical fire weather
thresholds. The Cabo Rojo and Camp Santiago RAWS stations have
been registering RH values in the upper 40s to low 50s and winds
speeds in around 10 to 13 mph, with gust around 20 to 23 mph.
Therefore, at this time conditions remain favorable for the spread
of wildfires along the southern coastal plains of Puerto Rico.
Some relief is expected this afternoon as some showers should
develop across southwestern Puerto Rico. Fire partners are
encouraged to remain vigilant as similar conditions are likely to
prevail over the coming days.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/BEACH/FIRE...YZR
LONG TERM...ICP

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion