958 FXCA62 TJSJ 071824 AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 224 PM AST Mon Jul 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Breezy conditions expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. Choppy seas and a moderate risk of rip currents will persist over the next few days. These may create hazardous conditions. * Diurnally induced afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected over portions of the Cordillera Central and western PR each day. Passing showers will continue across the USVI and eastern sections of PR during the night/early morning hours. * Normal to above normal temperatures will continue each day and a limited heat risk will persist for the lower elevations and urban areas of the islands. * Moderate to high concentrations of Saharan dust are expected to return during the second part of the workweek, resulting in hazy skies, reduced visibility, and poor air quality. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday... Variably cloudy skies prevailed across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands today. Trade wind showers moved over portions of the USVI and the eastern half of PR during the morning hours. Diurnally induced afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms developed over central and western PR. As of 2 PM, rainfall accumulations were up to 1.50 inches over portions of Las Marias, Mayaguez, and Cabo Rojo. Maximum temperatures were from the upper-80s to the low 90s across the lower elevations of the islands, and from the mid-70s to mid-80s across the higher elevations of Puerto Rico. The wind was from the east between 15 and 20 mph with sea breeze variations and higher gusts up to 32 mph observed across coastal areas. For the rest of this afternoon, isolated thunderstorms are expected to continue mainly over portions of western PR. Gusty winds and lightning strikes are expected with this activity. For tonight into Tuesday morning, quick passing showers are expected to leave minor rainfall amounts across the USVI and windward sections of PR. A broad ridge building from the central Atlantic will promote east to southeast winds for the next few days. A wind surge will bring scattered showers and stronger winds across the area from Tuesday night through Wednesday. Normal to above normal temperatures will continue each day and a limited heat risk will persist for the lower elevations and urban areas of the islands. .LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday... /From Prev Discussion issued at 500 AM AST Mon Jul 7 2025/ A weak tropical wave is expected to move through the region on Thursday, steered by a strong Bermuda-Azores High, maintaining near-normal moisture levels. A surface wind surge will arrive on Friday, initially enhancing low-level moisture before a significantly drier air mass settles in through the weekend. Mid- to upper-level dry air and a trade wind cap inversionreinforced by a tropical upper-tropospheric trough (TUTT) to the northeastwill limit deep convection during this period. More favorable conditions are likely Sunday into early next week as the TUTT shifts over Hispaniola and easterly trade wind disturbances approach the area. Lingering moisture will support isolated to scattered showers early in the period, with significant drying expected from Friday through Sunday, reducing rainfall potential. Even during the driest periods, afternoon convective developmentdriven by diurnal heating and local terrain effectsremains likely each day. Breezy to windy conditions will prevail through the weekend, with southeasterly winds supporting above-normal temperatures, especially between Thursday and Saturday, when values are forecast to exceed typical seasonal thresholds. Cooler air aloft may arrive Friday and persist into Saturday; however, limited moisture will likely prevent widespread convection. Rain chances are expected to increase again from Sunday afternoon into Monday. A Saharan Air Layer spreading over the region beginning Thursday will contribute to hazy skies, reduced visibility, and continued suppression of widespread convection through at least Saturday. While excessive rainfall is not a concern until Sunday, other weather hazardsincluding periods of excessive heat, gusty winds, and isolated afternoon lightningremain possible throughout the long-term period. && .AVIATION... (18z TAFs) Mainly VFR conditions are expected across all terminals during the next 24 hours. However, SHRA/TSRA expected to develop in and around TJPS/TJBQ thru 07/22z. Across the USVI terminals and TJSJ, mostly VCSH expected with brief periods of -RA. The 07/12z TJSJ sounding indicated E-ESE winds up to 23 kt blo FL060. && .MARINE... Moderate to locally fresh winds will create choppy seas across local waters over the next several days, prompting caution for small craft operators. Afternoon thunderstorms may impact coastal waters and local passages, particularly over western Puerto Rico and the Mona Passage each day. Showers and thunderstorm chances increase on Thursday with the passage of a tropical wave. Saharan dust is expected to return later in the workweek. && .BEACH FORECAST... Increasing winds over the next several days will promote a moderate risk of rip currents across the eastern, northern, and southern beaches of Puerto Rico, and St. Croix. Life-threatening rip currents often occur in the vicinity of groins, jetties, reefs, and piers. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ DSR/GRS
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