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FXCA62 TJSJ 090820 CCA
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
420 AM AST Mon Feb 9 2026

...UPDATED SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 240 AM AST Mon Feb 9 2026

* Fair and mostly dry weather will prevail, with strengthening
  northerly winds and a building northerly swell.

* Hazardous marine conditions are ongoing and will persist through
  midweek, affecting the Atlantic waters and local Caribbean
  passages due to increasing winds and swell.

* Hazardous surf zone and coastal conditions will also persist
  through midweek, including a high rip current risk, high surf
  impacts along north-facing coasts, and minor coastal flooding in
  vulnerable low-lying areas.


&&

.Short Term(Today through Wednesday)...
Issued at 240 AM AST Mon Feb 9 2026

Fair weather conditions prevailed overnight, despite persistent
mid-to-upper level cloud cover associated with the nearby frontal
boundary. Radar transitioned into Clear Air Mode, confirming the
lack of meaningful precipitation. Only a few brief trade-wind
showers were observed over exposed northern coastal areas, driven
by strengthening northerly to northeasterly winds, with no
measurable impacts. Winds were breezy at times, averaging around
10 mph across coastal Puerto Rico and peaking near 1520 mph
across the U.S. Virgin Islands. Overnight temperatures dropped
into the upper 50s across higher elevations, while coastal and
island locations remained in the upper 70s, with additional
cooling likely toward sunrise.

The frontal boundary will remain stalled to the southeast while
high pressure moves off the U.S. East Coast into the Atlantic.
This will tighten the pressure gradient and lead to strengthening
northerly to north-northeasterly winds, which will be the main
hazard today, especially along exposed coastal areas. Otherwise,
fair and generally dry conditions will continue, favorable for
most outdoor activities. Cooler air behind the front will keep
temperatures on the cool side, with some variability as the region
remains between two different air masses. A strong trade-wind
inversion will limit cloud growth and keep showers shallow through
most of the day, though it will begin to weaken tonight. Any
shower activity will remain brief and limited to windward areas, while
steadier activity stays mainly over the Caribbean waters and near
Saint Croix, with minor or no impacts expected over land.

High pressure will continue strengthening and shifting eastward
into the central Atlantic, keeping winds as the primary concern.
Winds will turn northeasterly by Tuesday evening and increase to
2025 knots, especially across coastal areas and higher terrain,
before turning more easterly by Wednesday. Tuesday will remain
cool under persistent northerly flow, with temperatures gradually
warming on Wednesday as winds shift east. The trade-wind inversion
will weaken significantly or nearly disappear on Tuesday as an
upper-level disturbance passes, then rebuild by Wednesday. Even
so, fair weather will largely persist, with only brief, wind-
driven showers near the stalled frontal boundary, the Caribbean
waters, Saint Croix, and windward areas. Rainfall impacts are
expected to remain minimal, with strong winds remaining the
dominant hazard, particularly Tuesday into early Wednesday.


&&

.Long Term(Thursday through Monday)...
Issued at 240 AM AST Mon Feb 9 2026

A surface high-pressure system centered over the central Atlantic
shifting eastward will support light to moderate southeasterly
winds across the region. As the high continues to move eastwards,
abundant moisture associated with the remnants of a frontal
boundary will lift northward from Caribbean waters, reaching the
area through at least late Friday.

By Friday, an upper-level trough will approach from the northwest,
increasing atmospheric instability. The combination of southeasterly
flow and deep moisture will enhance the potential for widespread
showers throughout the long-term period. Precipitable water (PWAT)
analysis shows values climbing from 1.25 inches on Thursday to 1.75
inches by Friday, ranging from seasonal to above-normal
climatological levels.

Consequently, morning showers are expected across eastern Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, followed by afternoon convective
activity over central and northwestern Puerto Rico. While
temperatures at the 925 mb level will remain below normal through
Friday, they are expected to rise on Saturday, bringing warmer
conditions back by the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 240 AM AST Mon Feb 9 2026

All TAF sites to remain VFR thru the fcst pd. Persistent mid-lvl
clds ovrngt with CIGS mainly FL020FL080, ocnly lwr vsby. Isold
VCSH/-RA psbl at TJBQ thru 09/23Z, TJSJ aft 09/14Z, TIST aft
09/23Z, and thru the pd at TISX, with no sig flt cat restrictions
xpctd. Sfc winds N 510 kt ovrngt, incrg to 1520 kt with ocnl
gsts to 20 kt btwn 09/1423Z, then easing to 1015 kt aft 09/23Z.
Fcst pd dominated by strg N flow and gsty conds, with ocnl mech
turb psbl near trrn and coastal terminals.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 240 AM AST Mon Feb 9 2026

A surface high pressure moving off the US coast will begin to
yield moderate to fresh northerly winds through Tuesday. A weak
frontal boundary will linger over the Caribbean waters and the
Anegada Passage during the next few days, while another weak front
moves into the offshore Atlantic waters. This will promote mostly
cloudy skies across portions of the regional waters. A large,
long period northwest swell will bring hazardous seas from through
midweek. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for most local
waters exposed to the NW swell.


&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 240 AM AST Mon Feb 9 2026

A large, long period northwest swell will gradually spread across
the Atlantic waters and passages during the next few days. This
swell will cause large breaking waves between 10 and 15 feet along
the northwest to northeast coasts of PR, Culebra and the northern
USVI. High surf conditions, life-threatening rip currents, and minor
coastal flooding is expected with this large breaking wave action.
Hazardous swimming conditions will last through midweek. A Coastal
Flood Advisory, High Surf Advisory, and High Rip Current Statements
are in effect.

Beachgoers are urged to continue monitoring forecast updates and to
follow all local advisories, warnings, and guidance from lifeguards
and local officials as conditions continue to deteriorate.


&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for PRZ001-002-
     005-008-010-012.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM AST
     Tuesday for PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012.

     High Surf Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM AST Tuesday
     for PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012.

     High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM AST this morning through
     Wednesday afternoon for PRZ011-013.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for VIZ001.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM AST
     Tuesday for VIZ001.

     High Surf Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM AST Tuesday
     for VIZ001.

     High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM AST this morning through
     Wednesday afternoon for VIZ002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST Wednesday for AMZ711-712-716-
     741-742.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM AST
     Wednesday for AMZ723-726-745.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM AST
     Wednesday for AMZ733.

&&

$$

AFTERNOON CREW...DSR/GRS
OVERNIGHT CREW...ICP

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion