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915
FXCA62 TJSJ 231855
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
255 PM AST Mon Feb 23 2026

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 250 PM AST Mon Feb 23 2026

* There is a moderate risk of rip currents along the north-facing
  beaches of Puerto Rico through Tuesday night. After that, the
  risk will increase to high for those beaches, as well as for
  Culebra and the U.S. Virgin Islands, and remain high through the
  end of the week.

* An increase in shower frequency and coverage is expected on
  Tuesday and Wednesday, likely resulting in a limited to
  elevated flood threat across Puerto Rico and the USVI, along
  with isolated thunderstorms possible.

* Across the USVI, showers will increase from late tonight into
  Tuesday.

* A long period northwesterly swell will bring hazardous seas,
  life-threatening rip currents and high surf conditions from
  Wednesday through at least Friday. Continue to monitor the
  forecast in the coming days and heed the advice of lifeguards,
  flags and signs.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 250 PM AST Mon Feb 23 2026

Tranquil and mostly stable conditions have prevailed across
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands under the influence of
mid-level ridging and a drier-than-normal airmass, with
precipitable water values around 1.25 inches or lower based on
satellite-derived PWAT data. Southeasterly winds have produced
only a few light showers across south-central and southeastern
Puerto Rico, resulting in minimal rainfall accumulations. Daytime
high temperatures have reached the mid to upper 80s across most
coastal and lower elevation areas of Puerto Rico and the USVI,
while higher elevations have remained in the upper 70s. Conditions
will remain without significant impacts tonight.

As previously anticipated, a change in the weather pattern is
expected Tuesday and Wednesday. From a broader perspective, a col
region and pre-frontal trough are forecast to develop over the
local area, while moisture content increases sharply to above-
normal levels. Current guidance suggests precipitable water values
may rise to around 1.75 inches. In addition, dynamics aloft will
become more favorable as an upper-level trough associated with a
frontal system positioned to the northwest of the region promotes
enhanced ventilation and divergence aloft, while moisture convergence
strengthens across the region. Cooler 500 mb temperatures near -9
degrees C will further enhance instability. These combined factors
will likely support the development of isolated thunderstorms. As
a result, an increase in cloudiness and shower activity is
expected across the forecast area tomorrow. This activity may lead
to a limited to elevated flood threat, particularly across
windward- exposed areas and the mountainous regions of Puerto
Rico. Urban and small stream flooding will be possible, along with
ponding of water on roadways and in poorly drained areas. The
USVI may also experience a limited flood threat on Tuesday,
especially during the morning hours.

Unsettled weather will continue into Wednesday. Even though moisture
in the air may briefly decrease early in the day, it will quickly
increase again by midday. With cooler temperatures higher in the
atmosphere and plenty of moisture in the mid-levels, showers are
likely to continue.

The 925 mb temperature outlook indicates a decrease to near-
average values around Tuesday and beyond. Daytime maximums are
expected to range from the low to mid-80s across the lower
elevations of the islands, and from the mid-70s across the higher
elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM(Thursday through Monday)...
Issued at 244 AM AST Mon Feb 23 2026

A transition from wet, unstable conditions to a drier and more
stable weather pattern is expected during the first half of the long-
term period. However, lingering moisture associated with the
remnants of a frontal boundary will continue to reach the islands,
promoting shower activity across the region through at least
Friday. During this time, precipitable water (PWAT) values will
remain above normal, reaching approximately 1.50 inches.

As the week progresses, a surface high pressure system over the
central Atlantic will strengthen and become the dominant feature.
This strengthening will tighten the pressure gradient, resulting in
moderate to locally fresh east-to-southeasterly winds from Thursday
night through Monday. Under this regime, the trade winds will carry
quick-moving showers across the region, though rainfall accumulations
are expected to be minimal.

By the second half of the period, a mid-to-upper-level ridge will
establish itself across the northeastern Caribbean, promoting dry
and stable conditions aloft. From Saturday onward, PWAT values
will drop below the climatological normal to around 0.80 inches,
supporting a relatively dry pattern into early next week.

Temperatures at the 925 mb level will remain near normal to slightly
above climatological values each day due to the combination of
available moisture and southeasterly wind flow. Highs are forecast
to reach the mid-to-upper 80s in lower elevations and the upper 70s
to low 80s across the higher elevations through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 250 PM AST Mon Feb 23 2026

VFR conditions will prevail today. Patches of clouds moving from
the south or southeast will bring SCT to brief BKN ceilings across
local terminals through this evening. Also, some showers will
develop near JBQ between 23/20z and 23/02z. Winds will prevail
from SE at 8-15 kt with sea breeze variations through 23/23z,
becoming calm to light and VRB after that. Winds will return from
SE-ESE at 9-15kt after 24/13z. A similar wx pattern can be
expected tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 PM AST Mon Feb 23 2026

A surface high pressure over the central Atlantic will maintain
moderate southeast winds across the regional waters tonight and
early tomorrow. An approaching front from the western Atlantic and
a developing pre-frontal trough will promote light and variable
winds on Tuesday. Shower activity and the possibility of
thunderstorms will then increase through at least Tuesday and
Wednesday. A long- period north-northwest swell is expected to
spread across the Atlantic waters and passages from early
Wednesday morning onward, deteriorating marine conditions and
building seas up to 9 feet.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 250 PM AST Mon Feb 23 2026

Beachgoers should be aware of a moderate risk of rip currents
through tomorrow (Tuesday) at north- and east-facing beaches in
Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques, as well as St. Thomas,
St. John, and St. Croix. While the risk is manageable, life-
threatening rip currents can occur, especially in exposed beaches
near rocks, piers, and jetties.

A long-period northwesterly swell will arrive late Tuesday night,
peaking between Wednesday evening and early Thursday morning. This
will increase the risk of rip currents to high, starting Wednesday,
with hazardous conditions expected through Friday. Meanwhile, St.
Croix will face a high risk of Rip Currents this weekend, spreading
to Culebra and adjacent islands on Sunday.

For safety, consider visiting beaches on Puerto Rico`s Caribbean
coastline or those with southern exposure along St. Thomas, St.
John, Culebra, Vieques, and St. Croix, where the risk is lower.
Always check local conditions before swimming.

Remember to swim near a lifeguard, never swim alone, and, if caught
in a rip current, stay calm and float rather than fight it.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...YZR
LONG TERM...LIS
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACH...CAM

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion