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984
FXCA62 TJSJ 271903
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
303 PM AST Fri Feb 27 2026

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 257 PM AST Fri Feb 27 2026

* A high risk of rip currents will continue tonight for the
  north- facing beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra, St. Thomas and
  St. John. Up to a moderate risk is forecast by tomorrow morning
  through early next workweek.

* Breezy east to east-southeast winds will continue to steer a patch
  of moisture over the area tonight. Drier air will then filter in
  tomorrow, Saturday, followed by additional patches of moisture on
  Sunday. A warming trend will also take place this weekend.

* Breezy to windy conditions will continue into next week, becoming
  more pronounced during the second half of the workweek.

* Although the northeasterly swell is subsiding, fresh to locally
  strong winds will sustain hazardous seas tonight. Choppy to
  rough seas and fresh to locally strong winds will create
  dangerous conditions for small craft throughout much of the
  forecast period.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 257 PM AST Fri Feb 27 2026

Mainly fair conditions persisted in the morning hours, with passing
showers moving across the regional waters into the eastern half of
Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Seasonal
minimum temperatures were observed today, as CWOP/ASOS/AWOS stations
across urban and coastal areas reported minimums in the 70s, with
isolated areas in the upper 60s. On the other hand, higher
elevations remained in the low to mid 60s, with isolated areas such
as the Adjuntas Substation reporting in the mid 50s (54 degrees
Fahrenheit). Winds gradually increased during the morning, with the
highest registration by the ASOS at the Henry E Rohlsen
International Airport in St. Croix (30 mph). Passing showers are
expected to continue across the islands the rest of the afternoon,
and based on the latest HIRES solutions, rainfall accumulations
should remain limited. Expect puddles over the road and brief
periods of reduced visibility.

The short-term forecast remains on track. The surface high pressure
across the Central Atlantic will continue to promote E winds for the
rest of today, veering from the SE Saturday and Sunday. This high
will keep strengthening, increasing the pressure gradient and
resulting in breezy to locally windy conditions (winds between 15 -
25 mph, higher gusts) for the next few days. In the mid levels, the
ridge will dominate the weather pattern in the short-term, warming
500 mb temperatures (around -6 degrees Celsius), and enhancing
stability aloft. Tonight will likely be the wettest period of the
forecast, as showers will continue to move across windward sections
through early tomorrow. Afterwards, a drier airmass should filter
into the region, with a typical weather pattern prevailing for the
rest of the short term. Although occasional patches of moisture will
likely move across the CWA, rainfall accumulations should remain
limited due to fast-moving showers, with a low flooding potential.

Under a SE wind flow, warmer than normal temperatures are expected
on Saturday and Sunday. Nevertheless, the heat threat will remain
low.

&&

.Long Term(Monday through next Thursday)...
Issued at 327 AM AST Fri Feb 27 2026

A broad surface high over the north-central Atlantic will continue
to dominate the regional pattern through late week, maintaining a
tight pressure gradient and breezy to windy low-level flow across
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Winds will remain generally
easterly Monday into Tuesday, shifting to east to east-northeast by
Wednesday and Thursday as an additional high builds into the western
Atlantic and reinforces the gradient. Temperatures will remain near
seasonal normals.

Moisture will remain variable but generally above normal early in
the week, with embedded patches of deeper moisture moving within the
trade wind flow Monday and Tuesday. This will support frequent
passing showers, particularly during the overnight and morning hours
across windward sectors, followed by afternoon convection over
interior and western Puerto Rico each day. As winds become more east-
northeasterly late in the period, shower activity will favor eastern
and northeastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Periods of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall may occur where showers
repeatedly move over the same locations, especially Monday and
Tuesday, resulting in a limited risk of minor urban and small stream
flooding. A gradual drying trend is possible late Wednesday into
Thursday. Nevertheless, passing showers remain possible.

Breezy to windy conditions will persist, particularly from late
Tuesday onward, with gusty periods likely. Overall, the primary
hazards through Thursday will be the increase in wind speeds and a
limited flooding risk early in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 257 PM AST Fri Feb 27 2026

VFR conds will prevail across all terminals, with VCSH through most
of the TAF prd. -SHRA/+SHRA will continue across the islands, with a
potential for -TSRA over W PR. VCTS for JBQ will cont through
27/23z, AMDs will be issue if required. E winds will weaken tngt,
btwn 6  - 11 kt, and may become VRB for JBQ by 28/02z. Winds will
increase from the SE, btwn 15 - 18 kt and gusts up to 28 kt, by
28/13-14z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 257 PM AST Fri Feb 27 2026

A subsiding long-period northwesterly swell will continue affecting
the Atlantic waters and local passages tonight and early tomorrow. A
broad surface high over the Atlantic will, however, continue to
tighten the local pressure gradient and promote up to fresh to
locally strong east to east-southeast winds. Although this high will
move eastward during the weekend; another broad surface high will
move over the western to central Atlantic to start the next
workweek, sustaining up to up to fresh to strong winds E-ESE winds
backing to become more easterly as we head towards midweek. This
will in turn sustain choppy to rough seas over the regional waters
through the workweek, especially midweek onwards.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 257 PM AST Fri Feb 27 2026


A high risk of rip currents (life-threatening rip currents are
likely in the surf zone) will continue tonight for the northern
coastline of Puerto Rico, Culebra, and St. Thomas, St. John. A
moderate risk of rip currents (life-threatening rip currents are
possible in the surf zone) will be in effect tonight for St. Croix,
Vieques, southeastern PR and southwestern PR. By tomorrow and
through the weekend, up to a moderate risk of rip currents will be
in effect for most of the local beaches. The high risk of rip
currents is forecast to return on the second half of the next
workweek as fresh to strong easterly winds affect the region.

For safety, always check local conditions before swimming. Remember
to swim near a lifeguard, never swim alone, and, if caught in a rip
current, remain calm, do not exhaust yourself, and stay afloat while
waiting for help. Even if the risk of rip currents is low, life-
threatening rip currents often occur in the vicinity of groins,
jetties, reefs, and piers. For more information, visit:
weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ001-002-005-
     008-012.

     High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ010.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for VIZ001.

     High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for VIZ002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Saturday for AMZ711.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight AST tonight for AMZ712-716-
     723.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for AMZ726-733-
     741.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MNG
LONG TERM...MMC
MARINE/BEACH...MRR

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion