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342
FXCA62 TJSJ 250700
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
300 AM AST Sat Apr 25 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 300 AM AST Sat Apr 25 2026

* Moderate rip current risk will persist along north-facing and
  exposed beaches, with locally hazardous marine conditions
  possible at times.

* A warming trend continues, with heat indices near or above
  100F possible, especially in coastal and urban areas.

* Favorable weather conditions today through early Sunday, with
  limited shower activity; conditions deteriorate late Sunday into
  early next week with increasing flooding and lightning risks.

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, passing showers increase tonight
  into early next week along with warmer conditions; impacts
  remain localized but may increase early next week.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Monday)...
Issued at 300 AM AST Sat Apr 25 2026

An evolving pattern will persist across the northeastern
Caribbean, influenced by a distant surface trough north of the
region and weak low-pressure perturbations across the western
Atlantic. In combination with high pressure over the central
Atlantic, this will support a predominantly southerly low-level
flow. Aloft, weak troughing lingers today before gradually
lifting. Overall, limited moisture depth will restrict vertical
development through much of the weekend.

Locally, a patch of deeper moisture moved across the area
overnight, supporting clusters of showers across southern Puerto
Rico and a persistent band extending northward from near St. Croix
across eastern Puerto Rico into the Atlantic waters. In its wake, a
drier-than-normal air mass will move in this morning, leading to
decreasing shower activity after sunrise. Afternoon convection
will develop over the interior, drifting north to northeast today,
then north on Sunday, remaining mostly shallow. By Monday,
increasing moisture will support deeper convection, favoring the
interior to north-northwest. Winds will be light to gentle from
the south with sea breeze variations, and temperatures will trend
above normal.

For today, no distinctive hazards are expected, but conditions
should still be monitored for changes. On Sunday, a limited
flooding risk and isolated thunderstorms are possible during the
afternoon, along with increasing heat. By Monday into Monday
night, a surge of deeper moisture will bring an elevated risk of
flooding and lightning, with more widespread and efficient
rainfall expected.

&&

.Long Term(Tuesday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM AST Sat Apr 25 2026

The forecast remains on track as abundant moisture from the
Caribbean Sea streams into the region. This influx is driven by an
approaching mid-to-upper-level trough from the west and an induced
surface trough, both of which are significantly increasing local
instability. Meanwhile, a dominant surface high pressure across the
central Atlantic will maintain a light to variable south-
southeasterly wind flow through most of the period.

Under this pattern, there is an enhanced potential for strong
showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. Scattered showers are expected
across the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico during the
morning, followed by vigorous afternoon convection across the
interior and northern Puerto Rico, including the San Juan metro
area. Recent analysis shows precipitable water (PWAT) values well
above climatological values, peaking near 2.25 inches. While
moisture levels will decrease slightly by Wednesday to between 1.75
and 2.00 inches, they remain unseasonably high. This unstable
environment will promote daily showers and isolated thunderstorms,
particularly during the afternoon hours over northern and interior
Puerto Rico, as the upper-level trough deepens over the northeastern
Caribbean. A gradual improvement in weather conditions is expected
by the end of the workweek as drier air begins to filter in.

Warm to hot conditions will persist throughout the week due to the
prevailing south-southeasterly flow. Temperatures at the 925 mb
level are forecast to remain well above normal through Friday.
Maximum surface temperatures will range from the upper 80s to low
90s in coastal and urban areas, and the low to mid-80s in higher
elevations. Due to the combination of high humidity and southerly
winds, heat indices will likely surpass 100F daily. Residents and
visitors are strongly encouraged to prioritize hydration and limit
prolonged sun exposure to remain safe during this period of
excessive heat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 300 AM AST Sat Apr 25 2026

VFR will prevail at all TAF sites. VCSH thru 25/13Z at
TJSJ/TJPS/USVI, brief CIG/VIS reductions possible (mainly TISX).
Aft 25/1823Z, VCSH/-SHRA fm interior PR drifting NNE, mainly
TJSJ vcnty, iso near TJBQ. MVFR brief/limited. Aft 25/23Z, VCSH
returns to USVI ovrnght. No sig ops impacts expected. Winds lgt
SE, bcmg VRB ovr PR, then inc to 512 kt aft 25/1214Z w/ sea
breeze.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM AST Sat Apr 25 2026

A frontal boundary meandering north of the region will continue to
lift further away, while a weak surface high over the southwestern
Atlantic shifts east into the central Atlantic during the weekend.
This pattern will promote light to moderada southerly winds today,
before easing again through early next week. A small, long-period
NNE swell is expected to arrive today with additional pulses
expected early in the workweek with limited impacts. Overall, marine
conditions will gradually improve and remain below small craft
advisory criteria.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 300 AM AST Sat Apr 25 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents is expected to prevail across all
north-facing beaches of the islands through early next week. This
means that life-threatening rip currents are possible in the surf
zone. The risk of rip currents will remain low in the south-facing
beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. A series of long-
period NNE swells will spread across the Atlantic waters and
passages through early next week. Although seas are expected to
remain around 4 feet or less, these long-period swells could still
increase the risk of life-threatening rip currents along the
Atlantic coastline of the islands.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

EVE...DSR/GRS
MID...ICP

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion