Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

265
FXCA62 TJSJ 112009
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
409 PM AST Fri Apr 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

The approaching frontal boundary located over Hispaniola will
continue to enhance moisture content across the islands over the
weekend. Showery conditions and isolated thunderstorms are
expected, particularly across the northwestern quadrant of Puerto
Rico each day. Above normal temperatures are anticipated for the
next few days with heat indices likely exceeding above 100 degrees
each afternoon across urban and coastal areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday...

Variably cloudy skies prevailed across Puerto Rico today, while
mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies were observed across the U.S.
Virgin Islands. Showers and isolated thunderstorms developed over
portions of the interior and north-central Puerto Rico, an briefly
over the San Juan metro area. Maximum rainfall accumulations were
between 1 and 3 inches in Lares and Hatillo. Maximum temperatures
were from the mid to high 80s across the lower elevations of the
islands to the upper 70s and mid-80s across the higher elevations.
The wind was from the east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph with
occasional higher gusts.

A cold front over the western Atlantic will continue to approach the
northeastern Caribbean during the next few days. A broad surface
high pressure will remain anchored over the central and eastern
Atlantic. These features will promote light to moderate east to
southeast winds through the weekend. However, another surface high
pressure will build over the western Atlantic and push the front
over the local late in the weekend into early next week. At the mid
and upper levels, a polar trough over the western Atlantic will
promote southwesterly winds aloft, and in combination with the low-
level front will steer the afternoon convection from central PR into
the northern sections each day. The precipitable water content will
remain above normal levels each day, therefore, the risk of flooding
will remain elevated, and mainly over PR. Across the USVI, the best
chance for showers is tonight, as a band of showers currently east
of the Leeward Islands reach the local area.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 349 AM AST Fri Apr 11 2025/

The long term forecast continues on track, with a high moisture
and wet pattern early next week. A building surface high pressure
moving from the western to central Atlantic will promote
northeasterly winds on Monday. Winds will gradually shift from the
east southeast on Tuesday, then becoming from the southeast on
Wednesday as the surface high migrates eastwards. The lingering
frontal boundary located northwest of the area the surface high
pressure will continue to pull moisture from the Caribbean into
the islands. Under this high moisture environment the potential to
observe rainfall activity over the region increases. However, a
mid-level ridge at 500 mb will place over the area promoting
stability aloft and inhibiting the formation of strong convective
activity over the islands during the forecast period. The latest
precipitable water content guidance (PWAT) suggest above-than-
normal climatological values between 1.8 to 2.0 inches. Throughout
the period, showers are likely to form over the western and
northwestern portions of Puerto Rico in the afternoon with periods
of heavy rainfall at times. During the forecast period, the main
hazard will be mostly minor flooding in urban and low-drainage
areas. A warmer trend is expected to continue next week with above
normal temperatures. Highs will be in the upper 80s across the
coastal and urban areas, and from the upper 70s to mid 80s in the
mountains and higher elevations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals
through the period. However, -SHRA/TSRA may linger thru 11/23z in
the vcty of TJBQ/TJSJ. Also, SHRA en route from the Leeward Islands
could reach the USVI terminals through the night. The wind will
remain from the ESE at 10 mph or less with land breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...

A cold front across the western Atlantic will continue to approach
the northeastern Caribbean during the next few days. A broad surface
high pressure will remain anchored over the central Atlantic
promoting light to moderate east to southeast winds through the
weekend. However, another surface high pressure will build over the
western Atlantic and push the front over the local area by early next
week. This will promote moderate to fresh northeast winds from
Monday night onwards. Shower and thunderstorm activity will gradually
increase each day, and mainly across the Atlantic waters and the
Mona Passage.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

Nearshore buoys continue to indicate a subsiding northerly swell.
Therefore, a moderate risk of rip currents will persist along the
northern exposed beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques and St.
Croix tonight. Life-threatening rip currents are possible in the
surf zone. A low to moderate risk of rip currents will continue to
persist during the weekend.

&&



.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...DSR
LONG TERM...PREV
MARINE...YZR
BEACH FORECAST...CVB

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion