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394
FXCA62 TJSJ 060845
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
445 AM AST Fri Feb 6 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 445 AM AST Fri Feb 6 2026

* High chance of life-threatening rip currents along the north-
  facing beaches in PR, with a moderate chance of them occurring
  across Vieques, Culebra, and St. Thomas, St. John, and St.
  Croix.

* Weather conditions will deteriorate across PR and the USVI from
  this weekend into early next week, as an approaching frontal
  boundary increases moisture and instability, bringing a renewed
  chance of cooler temperatures, showers, and localized flooding,
  especially Saturday night into Sunday.

* Pulses of northeasterly swell will maintain hazardous coastal
  conditions for beachgoers through the weekend; however, another
  northerly swell will further deteriorate marine and coastal
  conditions late this weekend into early next week.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 445 AM AST Fri Feb 6 2026

Life-threatening rip currents continue to form along the Atlantic
Coastline and north-facing beaches of PR and the USVI overnight.
As the winds turned southerly, a drier air mass moved in, clearing
skies and limiting rain across the US Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico overnight. The southerly winds were calm to light and
variable under land breeze variations. One more time, low
temperatures were in the low and mid-60s in the mountains of PR,
and in the low to mid-70s along the coast of PR and the USVI.

A surface high-pressure over the central Atlantic will continue
to promote a southerly wind flow today, veering to southwesterly
by this afternoon. By Saturday, an approaching frontal boundary
will induce a weak westerly flow, which will shift to north-
northwesterly by Saturday evening, then turn northerly by Sunday.

This evolving wind pattern will promote a drier air mass across
the islands through at least Saturday afternoon. However, a patch
of low-level moisture will promote some showers across the local
waters, moving across the US Virgin Islands and southern PR at
times. The best chance will be this afternoon into the evening,
with local effects promoting showers across southeast PR,
northeast PR, and the USVI. However, this activity does not
represent a threat of widespread flooding.

Although calm weather with mostly sunny skies will dominate
around Saturday morning, as the frontal boundary approaches from
the west, moisture will slowly increase again by Saturday
afternoon, with a more unsettled, potentially wetter pattern
developing, most likely by late Saturday night into early Sunday
morning. In this scenario, a limited risk of flooding rainfall is
expected to begin Saturday afternoon, which may lead to localized
water ponding in urban areas and areas with poor drainage. We will
continuously evaluate the flooding risk for Saturday as more
detailed guidance becomes available. Currently, we still identify
Sunday as another cloudy and showery weather day, as model
guidance indicates the frontal boundary lingering or even crossing
the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Recent model runs indicate that a jet stream will move closer to
the region as a frontal boundary approaches the islands between
Saturday night and early Sunday morning. Although thunderstorms
are not included in the current forecast due to possible
conditions at mid to upper levels, a lack of moisture, warmer-
than-normal temperatures, and relatively stable lapse rates, which
are not ideal for thunderstorm development, this potential will be
reassessed in future forecasts. We will particularly monitor
atmospheric instability for Saturday night and Sunday, as it may
influence the likelihood of thunderstorms.

&&

.Long Term(Monday through Friday)...
Issued at 445 AM AST Fri Feb 6 2026

Current model guidance for the start of the next workweek
indicates precipitable water values dropping to near seasonal
levels as drier air behind the frontal boundary advects into the
region. A high-pressure system building across the western
Atlantic will continue to promote increased north to northeast
winds through midweek as the pressure gradient tightens over the
area. Residents can expect wind driven passing showers,
particularly across northern and eastern Puerto Rico, Vieques,
Culebra, and the USVI. Under this pattern, and as noted in the 925
mb temperature guidance, temperatures will remain below the
seasonal average at least through Tuesday.

By Wednesday and Thursday, moisture levels are expected to
increase slightly as the high shifts farther east into the
Atlantic, veering winds from the east to southeast and lifting the
remnants of the stationary frontal boundary. This will allow
enhanced moisture convergence over the area, likely increasing
rain chances and elevating the flood risk across portions of
Puerto Rico and the USVI. Additionally, mid to upper-level
conditions are expected to become more dynamically favorable, as
troughiness will dominate aloft.

By the end of the week, more typical conditions are expected,
driven by available moisture and local effects under a persistent
southeasterly wind flow associated with high pressure across the
central to eastern Atlantic, bringing trade wind showers. A mid-
level ridge will also begin to establish, bringing increased
stability to the region. From midweek through Friday, winds will
shift back from the east to southeast, temperatures are expected
to warm, and 925 mb guidance shows a sharp increase to above-
normal temperatures for that period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 445 AM AST Fri Feb 6 2026

VFR conditions will prevail today. Winds will continue calm to
light and VRB through 6/13z, then will be mainly from the S,
turning more SSW by this afternoon, with speeds at 5 to 15 kt.
SHRA/-SHRA will form late this morning into the afternoon across
the eastern half of PR and the USVI. We cannot rule out a few
brief MVFR periods due to this activity.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 445 AM AST Fri Feb 6 2026

A surface high pressure over the eastern Atlantic will promote
gentle to moderate southerly to southwesterly winds today. Winds
becoming moderate to fresh by Saturday night into Sunday in the
wake of a frontal boundary approaching from the northwest, along
with increased shower activity. Two new swells are expected to
spread across the Atlantic waters and passages, the first one on
Saturday, and a larger, long- period northwesterly swell on
Monday. This will keep hazardous seas across most local waters
through at least midweek next week. Small Craft Advisory
conditions likely starting across the offshore Atlantic waters
around Saturday early afternoon.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 445 AM AST Fri Feb 6 2026

Today, the High Rip Current Risk remains in effect for north-
facing beaches of Puerto Rico due to breaking waves around 6 feet.
A Moderate Risk continues across western Puerto Rico and the
USVI. Beachgoers are strongly encouraged to exercise caution, as
life-threatening rip currents are possible in the surf zone.

Additional pulses of energy are likely to maintain a high risk of
rip currents over the weekend. Another stronger, long-period
northerly swell is expected early next week, which may further
deteriorate coastal conditions and prompt additional High Surf
Advisories and potential coastal flooding.

The public is urged to stay out of the water and continue
monitoring official forecasts for updates.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for PRZ001-002-
     005-008.

     High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM AST early this morning for
     PRZ010-012.

     High Rip Current Risk from Saturday evening through Sunday
     afternoon for PRZ010.

     High Rip Current Risk from Sunday morning through Sunday
     afternoon for PRZ012.

VI...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM AST early this morning for
     VIZ001.

     High Rip Current Risk from Sunday morning through Sunday
     afternoon for VIZ001.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from noon Saturday to 6 AM AST Sunday for
     AMZ711.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to 6 AM AST Sunday for
     AMZ712-741.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES...CAM
LONG TERM/MARINE/BEACH FORECAST....YZR

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion