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952
FXCA62 TJSJ 100705
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
305 AM AST Tue Feb 10 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 305 AM AST Tue Feb 10 2026

* Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions will continue
  along north-facing beaches, with high surf impacts through
  Wednesday afternoon, a high rip current risk through Thursday
  afternoon, and minor coastal flooding possible in vulnerable
  low-lying areas through this afternoon, especially around high
  tide.

* Hazardous marine conditions will persist through midweek due to
  elevated seas and long-period swell, creating dangerous
  conditions for mariners and small craft.

* Breezy to locally windy conditions will persist across coastal
  and exposed areas, contributing to hazardous conditions.

* Cloudy but generally tranquil conditions will persist, with
  cooler-than-normal temperatures through Wednesday, followed by a
  gradual warming trend and increasing rain potential late in the
  week, with more stable conditions expected into the weekend.


&&

.Short Term(Today through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM AST Tue Feb 10 2026

Fair weather conditions largely prevailed overnight, though skies
remained mostly cloudy due to persistent mid- to upper-level cloud
cover associated with a nearby frontal boundary. Radar indicated
an area of light to occasionally moderate rainfall streaming
eastward through much of the night before gradually dissipating;
rainfall amounts were generally under a quarter of an inch across
parts of northern Puerto Rico, portions of the local islands, and
the U.S. Virgin Islands, with no significant impacts observed.
Overnight minimum temperatures so far have dropped into the upper
50s across higher elevations, while coastal areas and the U.S.
Virgin Islands remain in the upper 70s, with some additional
cooling possible toward sunrise. Northerly winds persisted
overnight at 510 mph across most coastal areas, increasing to
around 15 mph with occasional gusts in more exposed locations.

A broad and strong surface high pressure system over the western
Atlantic will dominate the synoptic pattern today and tonight,
maintaining a tight pressure gradient and driving strong northerly
to north-northeasterly winds across the region. Sustained winds
around 2025 knots, with higher gusts exceeding 30 mph, will
affect coastal areas and higher terrain, supporting continued cool
air advection and keeping temperatures below normal through
tonight. Strong low-level flow will result in a higher frequency
of trade-wind showers, mainly affecting northern Puerto Rico,
including Vieques and Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, while
an upper-level disturbance and associated short-wave trough
brushing the northeastern Caribbean may briefly weaken the trade-
wind inversion and allow for limited periods of deeper moisture.
Despite this, rainfall amounts are expected to remain light, with
any impacts confined to localized ponding of water and isolated
minor urban flooding. Overall, strong non-thunderstorm winds will
remain the primary hazard, with only a very low potential for
thunderstorms and localized minor flooding, neither of which is
included in the general forecast.

As the surface high shifts farther east, winds will veer from
northeasterly to east-northeasterly on Wednesday, remaining breezy
through Wednesday night before gradually weakening late Wednesday
night into Thursday while continuing to veer to east-southeasterly
to southeasterly. A weak mid-level ridge moving across the region
Wednesday into early Thursday will allow the trade-wind inversion
to briefly rebuild and limit vertical moisture development. By
Thursday, a short-wave trough digging deeper into the Caribbean,
combined with veering low-level flow, will pull a band of deeper
tropical moisture northeastward across the area. Increased deep-
layer moisture and more favorable conditions aloft, including
cooling and upper-level divergence, will support heavier rain
showers on Thursday, with localized flooding possible, mainly in
urban and poor-drainage areas. Temperatures will begin a gradual
warming trend on Thursday, especially as winds shift to the
southeast and cooler air advection weakens. Drier air will move in
behind the moisture band late Thursday night, with the departure
of the trough and the development of a mid-level ridge promoting
increased subsidence and more stable conditions. Winds will remain
the primary hazard on Wednesday, while localized flooding becomes
the main concern on Thursday; a low potential for isolated
thunderstorms exists but is not included in the forecast.


&&

.Long Term(Friday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM AST Tue Feb 10 2026

The long-term forecast remains on track as a weak upper-level trough
approaches the local islands from the northwest. At the surface, a
high-pressure system over the central Atlantic will continue to
shift eastward, promoting light to moderate southeasterly winds
through Sunday. Winds will then shift from the east as another
surface high builds over the western Atlantic and migrates toward
the central Atlantic through the end of the period.

By Monday and Tuesday, a mid-to-upper-level ridge will establish
across the region, promoting stable conditions aloft. The latest
precipitable water (PWAT) analysis reflects this stability, showing
values within the seasonal climatological range of 1.20 to 1.50
inches. Under this pattern, trade-wind moisture will bring passing
morning showers to portions of eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands, followed by afternoon convective activity over
central and western Puerto Rico. Given the current outlook, the
flooding threat remains limited, particularly through the first half
of the period. Temperatures at the 925 mb level will gradually rise
to above-normal levels starting Friday as southeasterly flow brings
abundant moisture. Consequently, humid and warm conditions are
expected to persist through the weekend and into early next week.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 305 AM AST Tue Feb 10 2026

All TAF sites will remain VFR thru the fcst pd under persistent
midupper lvl clds, with ocnl brief vsby reductions psbl in trade-
wind SHRA. VCSH may affect most terminals thru the day, with the
highest coverage and impacts over nrn PR and USVI sites, though no
sig flt cat restrictions xpctd. Sfc winds NNNE will persist thru
the pd, 812 kt early, incrg to 1620 kt aft 10/13Z, then easing
to 1015 kt aft 10/23Z, with ocnl gsts. Overall, the fcst pd will
be dominated by strong N flow and gsty conds, which will be the
primary aviation concern, with ocnl mech turb psbl near trrn and
coastal terminals.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 AM AST Tue Feb 10 2026

A surface high pressure moving off the US coast will yield moderate
to fresh northerly winds through late tonight. A weak frontal
boundary will linger over the region during the next few days,
promoting cloudiness and light to moderate showers. A large, long
period north-northwest swell will continue to bring hazardous seas
across the Atlantic waters and passages through at least early
Thursday. Seas will peak overnight around 13 feet. Small Craft
Advisories are in effect for most local waters exposed to the NW
swell.


&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 305 AM AST Tue Feb 10 2026

A large, long-period north-northwest swell will continue to spread
across the Atlantic waters and local Caribbean passages over the
next few days. The peak of this swell event is expected through this
morning. Current observations at the San Juan buoy (41053) show seas
around 12 feet with periods of 14 to 15 seconds, which could result
in breaking waves of approximately 13 to 16 feet, and occasionally
higher. High surf conditions, life-threatening rip currents, and
minor coastal flooding are expected with this large breaking wave
action along the northwest to northeast coasts of Puerto Rico,
Culebra, Vieques, and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands. A Coastal
Flood Advisory, High Surf Advisory, and High Rip Current Statements
remain in effect. Life-threatening rip currents will be the main
coastal hazard across the northern exposed beaches of St. Croix.

Beachgoers are urged to stay out of the water, continue monitoring
forecast updates, and follow all local advisories, warnings, and
guidance from lifeguards and local officials as conditions continue
to deteriorate.


&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001-
     002-005-008-010-012.

     High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for PRZ001-002-
     005-008-010-012.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST Wednesday for PRZ001-002-005-
     008-010-012.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for PRZ011-
     013.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ013.

VI...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for VIZ001.

     High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for VIZ001.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST Wednesday for VIZ001.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for VIZ002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Thursday for AMZ711-712-716-
     723-726-733-741-742-745.

&&

$$

EVENING CREW...DSR/GRS
MIDNIGHT CREW...ICP

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion