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974
FXCA62 TJSJ 010808
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
408 AM AST Sun Mar 1 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 308 AM AST Sun Mar 1 2026

* Breezy to windy conditions are expected across Puerto Rico and
  the US Virgin Islands through much of the week, especially
  late week. Unsecured items could blow around.

* Temperatures will range near to slightly above normal today and
  Monday. More typical March temperatures return by midweek as
  stronger northeasterly winds develop.

* A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents is expected
  across most local beaches through much of the week, especially
  late in the week as winds and seas increase, and the risk will
  become high. Avoid swimming at unguarded beaches.

* Hazardous marine conditions are expected across the Offshore
  Atlantic and Caribbean Waters, as well as in local passages.
  Fresh to strong winds will produce choppy to rough seas.
  Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in hazardous
  conditions.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Tuesday)...
Issued at 308 AM AST Sun Mar 1 2026

Overnight, the breezy southeast winds brought a pocket of
moisture, with clouds and showers across PR. Although we did not
observe flooding problems, showery weather was observed.
Meanwhile, the US Virgin Islands observed mainly calm weather,
with most of the rain activity over local waters. While writing
this discussion, we observed temperatures in the upper 70s across
the US Virgin Islands, in the mid- or low-70s along the coast, and
in the mid-60s and even cooler across the higher elevations and
valleys. Weather Flow stations reported winds were mainly from the
east-southeast at 10 to 25 mph near some stations across the
USVI, east and south PR, including Culebra.

The Azores High will influence our local weather pattern, leading
to breezy to occasionally windy ESE-SE winds over the next few
days. A more east-northeasterly wind flow will return around
Tuesday. Still, weather models suggest that winds at the 925 MB
level will be above normal, approximately in the 75th percentile
of local climatology for this month. While we can expect periods
of sunshine or mostly clear skies, these breezy winds will also
bring in pockets of moisture daily, resulting in quick-moving
showers, particularly in windward areas. By the afternoon, due to
the southeast wind flow, we may see showers developing in the
northwest quadrant of Puerto Rico and downwind of the US Virgin
Islands in the form of streamers, and more to the west-southwest
on Tuesday as winds tend to become more east to northeast.
Consequently, we anticipate periods of moderate to locally heavy
rain, which could lead to water accumulation in various parts of
the islands. NBM suggests more frequent showers on Monday with the
arrival of a surge of moisture.

Model guidance indicates that temperatures today and Monday are
expected to be near or slightly above normal, as shown by the 925
MB climatology. This trend suggests that both Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands may experience warmer-than-normal temperatures
during these days. Starting Tuesday, however, a shift to more
typical March temperatures is anticipated as stronger
northeasterly winds develop.

&&

.Long Term(Wednesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 308 AM AST Sun Mar 1 2026

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...

By midweek, a series of high-pressure systems will remain over the
Atlantic, maintaining a prevailing northeasterly wind flow
throughout the forecast period. The pressure gradient across the
region will tighten, resulting in breezy to windy conditions.
Consequently, winds will be the primary weather concern during the
long-term period. Wind risk levels are expected to fluctuate from
limited to elevated, particularly along coastal areas of the
islands. Residents are advised to secure loose outdoor objects, as
items may be displaced or damaged by strong winds.

The latest model guidance indicates that moisture content will
remain fragmented and variable on Wednesday and Thursday,
fluctuating between near-seasonal levels and slightly above normal
as patches of moisture move within the trade wind flow. Precipitable
water values are forecast to range between 1.20 and 1.60 inches.
This pattern will support frequent passing showers, especially
during the overnight and morning hours across windward areas,
followed by limited afternoon convection over interior and western
Puerto Rico each day. Showers are expected to be fast-moving,
reducing the flood risk. From Thursday night into Friday, moisture
levels and upper-level dynamics are expected to become more
favorable as reflected in higher rain chances, potentially leading
to an increase in the frequency or intensity of showers Friday into
the weekend. Model guidance suggest PWAT values will become more
stable, around 1.6 inches each day. Additionally, moisture slightly
increase into the mid-levels of the atmosphere. Although strong
winds should limit rainfall accumulation and reduce flood potential,
current data supports a limited flood threat for eastern Puerto Rico
on Friday morning. Showers may result in ponding of water in areas
of poor drainage. Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, mostly sunny to
partly cloudy skies are expected to prevail, with passing showers
primarily during the nighttime and early morning hours. Winds will
also remain a primary hazard throughout the long-term period across
the islands.

The 925 mb temperature outlook suggests temperatures will be near
the average for this time of the year based on climatological data.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 308 AM AST Sun Mar 1 2026

VFR conditions will prevail today. However, breezy winds will give
way to gusty conditions, and occasional pockets of showers will
move across the local flying area, affecting TAF sites. During the
afternoon, between 01/15-23z, some showers will develop across the
interior and northwest under the southeasterly wind flow. Expect
ESE winds at 5-15 kt overnight with higher gusts, and after 01/13z
at 10-20 kt with gusts between 20 and 30 kt, or even higher.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 308 AM AST Sun Mar 1 2026

The broad surface high across most of the Atlantic will continue to
tighten the local pressure gradient, promoting fresh to locally
strong east-southeast winds. Although this high will remain in place,
another surface high will build over the western to central Atlantic
from Monday into midweek, sustaining fresh to strong winds. Expect
winds to become east-northeasterly by midweek. These conditions will
maintain choppy to rough seas across the regional waters through much
of the week, especially across the Atlantic and Caribbean Offshore
waters and local passages. Small craft should continue to exercise
caution across all waters.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 308 AM AST Sun Mar 1 2026

Breezy conditions will persist through much of the week. The
breezy to locally windy conditions, resulting in choppy to rough
seas, increasing the risk of life-threatening rip currents.
Overall, a moderate risk of rip currents is expected across much
of the local beaches in PR and the USVI. Thus, life-threatening
rip currents remain possible, particularly near piers, jetties,
and reef channels.

Looking ahead, confused seas due to fresh to strong trades and a
northeast to easterly swell will likely further deteriorate
coastal conditions and potentially increase the risk of dangerous
rip currents, particularly along north and east-facing beaches
from the middle of the week onward.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM AST Monday for AMZ711-723-733.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM AST Monday for AMZ741.

&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES/SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CAM
LONG TERM/MARINE/BEACH FORECAST....EVENING CREW

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion