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985
FXCA62 TJSJ 251745
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
145 PM AST Wed Feb 25 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 132 PM AST Wed Feb 25 2026

* Hazardous marine and beach conditions will continue due to strong
  swells spreading over the Atlantic waters. Small Craft Advisories
  and High Surf Advisories remain in effect, along with a High Risk
  of Rip Currents.

* Large breaking waves and strong rip currents will continue to
  create life-threatening conditions along exposed Atlantic
  coastlines and northern beaches, including portions of Puerto Rico
  from Rincon to Fajardo, as well as Culebra, Vieques, and the U.S.
  Virgin Islands. Wave action may also lead to minor beach erosion
  and hazardous conditions for small craft.

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, hazardous marine and coastal
  conditions will continue due to the strong swells, with a high
  risk of rip currents along exposed beaches. Breezy trade winds
  will bring passing showers at times, especially overnight and
  during the morning, followed by generally fair conditions each
  afternoon.

* Breezy conditions and passing trade wind showers are expected
  for the next few days.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 132 PM AST Wed Feb 25 2026

Mostly tranquil conditions persisted in the morning hours, with
few showers moving across regional waters and passages. Minimum
temperatures remained seasonal, as stations across urban and
coastal areas reported low to mid 70s, while higher elevations
remained in the high 50s and low 60s, with the lowest at the
Adjuntas Substation at 52 degrees Fahrenheit. Based on ASCAT
observations, easterly winds began to strengthen (between 15 and
20 kt) as the col region departed from the region. Additionally,
CWOP and ASOS/AWOS stations are reporting maximum wind gusts
between 20 and 25 kt over coastal areas across the islands. As
mentioned in previous discussions, satellite-derived products
showed Saharan Dust particles over the Central Atlantic that were
expected to filter into the region early today, based on model
guidance. Minor concentrations were reported by the Microbiology
team at the University of Puerto Rico Medical Sciences Campus. In
addition to the Saharan Dust particles, drier air filtered into
the region, limiting shower activity. Nevertheless, diurnal
heating combined with local effects should enhance shallow
convection over the western side of Puerto Rico, including the
U.S. Virgin Islands streamers. Due to the influence of the upper-
level trough, isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. The
short-term forecast remains on track, with a typical weather
pattern for this time of the year. The frontal boundary remains
just northwest of the region, expected to gradually dissipate
later today.

The broad surface high pressure over the Central Atlantic will
dominate the weather pattern, promoting easterly winds for the
rest of today and Thursday, veering from the southeast on Friday.
Breezy to locally windy conditions will likely persist for the
rest of the short-term forecast; unsecured objects may blow
around. Patches of moisture should move from time to time into the
region, bringing passing showers over windward sections of the
islands. Based on the latest model guidance, theres an agreement
between model solutions, showing low variability in moisture
content. In terms of instability, the influence of an upper-level
trough should remain near below climatological normal 500 mb
temperatures (around - 8 degrees Celsius), warming by the end of
the forecast period. Overall, the most likely scenario is passing
showers moving over windward sections in the night and morning
hours, along with shallow afternoon convection over
western/northwestern Puerto Rico each day. Although significant
flooding impacts are not expected, ponding of water over roadways
and poorly drained areas is likely over the aforementioned areas.

&&

.Long Term(Saturday through next Tuesday)...
Issued at 237 AM AST Wed Feb 25 2026

A strong surface high pressure system over the north-central
Atlantic will dominate the regional pattern through the period,
maintaining fresh to occasionally strong low-level winds across the
islands. Winds will generally range from east-southeast to southeast
from Saturday through Monday, becoming more easterly by Tuesday as
the high shifts. This wind regime will support slightly warmer
daytime temperatures over the weekend, followed by modest cooling as
the easterly flow becomes established. A weak trade wind cap
inversion, combined with slightly drier air and lower precipitable
water over the weekend, will limit shower coverage. On Monday,
moisture levels are expected to increase, and a weak upper-level
short-wave trough to the north, with stronger jet-level winds
overhead, will create conditions favorable for eroding the trade
wind cap and supporting deeper moisture and showers. Temperatures
are expected to remain near seasonal averages overall.

From a hazard perspective, breezy to locally windy conditions will
persist, which may make outdoor activities or small-scale operations
more difficult. Showers may become heavier and more widespread
Monday, particularly across eastern and west-northwestern Puerto
Rico. Minor flooding in urban and low-lying areas is possible,
especially during the afternoon hours, though widespread flooding is
not expected. The combination of strong low-level winds and fast-
moving showers may also produce brief heavy rainfall, localized
impacts, and gusty conditions that could affect exposed areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 132 PM AST Wed Feb 25 2026

Mainly VFR conds will persist across TAF sites. -SHRA/+SHRA is
expected over W PR, which low to medium chance of TS. Although
VCTS is expcd over TJBQ, and AMD will be issued if required. VCSH
are very likely across all terminals aft 25/23z, with showers that
may move inside TAF site and reduce CIGs/VIS. E Winds will
slightly weaken by 25/23z, btwn 5 - 10 kt, strengthening once
again by 26/13 btwn 16 - 18 kt and gusts up to 26 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 132 PM AST Wed Feb 25 2026

A long-period north-northwesterly swell will continue to spread
across the Atlantic waters and passages through Friday, building
seas between 6 and 10 feet. Hazardous seas are expected to linger
through Friday, and Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all
Atlantic waters and local passages. Moderate to fresh trades will
persist through the end of the week, as a surface high pressure
strengthens over the Central Atlantic.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 132 PM AST Wed Feb 25 2026

Nearshore buoys are gradually increasing, with 41053 showing wave
heights of 6 to 6.5 feet at periods of 12 to 14 seconds. This
supports estimated breaking waves in the range of 9 to 12 feet along
the northern shoreline of Puerto Rico.

Offshore buoy 41043 continues to indicate that energy from the long-
period swell will continue to arrive along the northern shore
through the rest of the afternoon, potentially peaking this evening
through late tonight. Therefore, a High Surf Advisory remains in
effect for the northern shore of Puerto Rico, from Rincon through
Fajardo. In these areas, expect localized beach erosion and
dangerous swimming conditions. Swell energy will also result in
hazardous beach conditions in Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin
Islands. For further details on hazard timing and locations, please
refer to CFWSJU.

For localized and updated rip current information, visit
weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for PRZ001-002-
     005-008-010>013.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Friday for PRZ001-002-005-008-
     010.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for VIZ001.

     High Rip Current Risk from Thursday morning through Friday
     afternoon for VIZ002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until noon AST Friday for AMZ711-712-716-
     723-741-742.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for AMZ745.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MNG
LONG TERM...ICP
MARINE/BEACH...CVB

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion