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849
FXCA62 TJSJ 051918
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
318 PM AST Thu Feb 5 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 238 PM AST Thu Feb 5 2026

 * Improving weather conditions are forecast from Friday into
   Saturday, with less cloud cover and more periods of sun.

 * Winds will shift from the south and southwest over the next
   two days, increasing the potential for slightly warmer daytime
   temperatures.

 * Hazardous coastal conditions will persist during the afternoon
   and night hours with breaking waves up to 10 feet in the north
   of Puerto Rico.

 * Another frontal boundary will move southward into the Caribbean,
   increasing the potential of cloudiness coverage and showers.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 238 PM AST Thu Feb 5 2026

During the morning and early afternoon hours, most of the region
was covered by an extensive area of cloudiness. Early in the
morning, an area of moisture and showers moved across eastern
sections of Puerto Rico, resulting in light to moderate rainfall
mainly affecting northeastern municipalities. Although showers
were widespread, they were light enough to prevent minor flooding
and hazardous driving conditions. Winds were from the east,
veering to the southeast during the morning; by 10 AM, winds were
predominantly from the southeast. By 12 PM, Doppler radar showed
the development of shower activity across north-central areas,
affecting municipalities near Arecibo. Daytime temperatures
remained in the low to mid-80s across most coastal and urban
areas.

An interesting weather pattern will persist through the rest of
the day and into the night. At the surface, a high-pressure system
over the central Atlantic will continue to promote southeasterly
winds across the region, allowing areas of cloudiness and moisture
to enhance afternoon showers. Surface conditions will begin to
change late tonight into Friday as a frontal boundary over the
western Atlantic sinks southward into the Caribbean. Interaction
between this boundary and the surface ridge will strengthen
southerly winds, while a drier Caribbean airmass filters in, with
precipitable water values ranging from 0.75 to 1.00 inches,
limiting cloud development and shower coverage. Although
conditions will generally remain unfavorable for widespread
rainfall due to a lack of instability and warmer mid-level
temperatures, afternoon convection is still expected across the
interior and mountainous areas, with no significant rainfall
threat. Weather conditions are forecast to deteriorate again on
Saturday night as moisture associated with the frontal boundary
increases cloudiness and showers.

&&

.Long Term(Sunday through next Wednesday)...
Issued at 238 PM AST Thu Feb 5 2026

The long-term period will begin with the presence of a deep polar
trough and its associated frontal boundary, which will likely
increase rain chances and elevate the flood risk as it crosses the
region. Current meteorological models indicate that the front
will move through the area on Sunday. Precipitable water values
are expected to increase to near-seasonal to above-normal levels.
At this time, the potential for ponding of water on roads and in
poorly drained areas will increase on Sunday across Puerto Rico
and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

From Sunday through midweek, winds are forecast to increase and
shift from the north-northeast as a strong high-pressure system
builds across the western Atlantic, tightening the pressure
gradient over the region. By early next week, moisture levels are
expected to remain near seasonal norms, then increase slightly
from Tuesday through Wednesday as the high shifts farther east
into the Atlantic and lifts the remnant frontal boundary, allowing
enhanced moisture convergence over the area. Limited flood potential
for portions of Puerto Rico and also the USVI. Additionally, mid-
to upper-level conditions are expected to become more dynamically
favorable as another trough moves across the region.

By Thursday, more typical conditions are expected, driven by
available moisture and local effects under a persistent northeasterly
wind flow associated with the high-pressure system moving eastward
across the central to eastern Atlantic. A mid-level ridge will
also begin to establish, bringing increased stability to the
region.

Temperature guidance indicates seasonal to below-normal
temperatures, with the coolest conditions expected from Sunday
through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 238 PM AST Thu Feb 5 2026

VFR conditions will persist across most TAF sites. However, lower
ceilings associated with cloudiness across the area and SHRA may
result in brief MVFR conditions. Winds will remain from the SE,
veering to the S and becoming light around 06/08Z, then increasing
to around 10 knots by 06/14Z. VCSH to SHRA are expected from
06/0006/12Z across TIST, TISX, and TJSJ. Lower VIS and CIGs are
forecast for TJPS around 06/16Z as showers move near the
mountainous areas.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 238 PM AST Thu Feb 5 2026

A high pressure system over the central North Atlantic will promote
moderate southeasterly winds tonight, gradually veering more from
the south by Friday. A dissipating long-period north-northwesterly
swell will maintain hazardous conditions for small craft across the
northern coastal waters of Puerto Rico for the rest of the night and
into the night hours. Inexperienced mariners, especially those
operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous
conditions. Gentle to moderate winds are expected on Friday and
Saturday, then increasing by Sunday in the wake of a frontal
boundary approaching from the northwest, along with increased rain
potential. A long-period northerly swell will arrive tomorrow.
Another stronger, long-period northerly swell will likely arrive
early next week, deteriorating marine conditions and prompting
marine hazards again.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 238 PM AST Thu Feb 5 2026

Energy from a dissipating, long-period northerly to north to
northwesterly swell will continue to reach northern areas this
afternoon and tonight, resulting in hazardous swimming conditions
across Atlantic exposed beaches. The High Surf Advisory remains in
effect for the northwest, east, and north-facing coastlines of
Puerto Rico, Culebra, and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands through
midnight tonight, with breaking waves of around 9 to 10 feet. A High
Surf Advisory means that high surf will affect beaches in the
advisory area, producing localized beach erosion and dangerous
swimming conditions.

Additional pulses of energy will likely maintain a high risk of rip
currents through at least next Wednesday. A long-period northerly
swell will arrive tomorrow. Another stronger, long-period northerly
swell will likely arrive early next week, once again deteriorating
coastal conditions and prompting additional High Surf Advisories.
The public is urged to stay out of the water and continue monitoring
official forecasts for updates.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for PRZ001-002-
     005-008.

     High Surf Advisory until midnight AST tonight for PRZ001-002-005-
     008.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ010-012.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for VIZ001.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight AST tonight for AMZ711.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM & AVIATION...LIS
LONG TERM....YZR
MARINE & BEACH FORECAST...MRR

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion