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831
FXCA62 TJSJ 060911
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
511 AM AST Fri Mar 6 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 511 AM AST Fri Mar 6 2026

* Breezy to locally windy conditions will continue during the
  forecast period, particularly across coastal areas of the
  islands; unsecured and outdoor objects may blow around.

* Patches of moisture will filter across the islands from the E to
  ENE at times during the forecast period, increasing fast-moving
  shower frequency, while a trough will gradually approach the
  region from the west this weekend into early next week.

* Expect choppy to rough seas across the offshore and nearshore
  Atlantic and Caribbean Waters, and the local passages. Small Craft
  Advisories are in effect for those areas. Inexperienced mariners
  should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

* A High Risk of Rip Currents is in effect for the north- and
  east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, St.
  Croix, St. Thomas, and St. John through the weekend and into
  early next week. Up to a moderate risk of rip currents
  elsewhere.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 511 AM AST Fri Mar 6 2026

Once again, variable weather conditions prevailed for most
windward sectors of the islands as breezy ENE flow steered fast-
moving showers and cloudiness towards the region. Satellite
derived precipitable water (PWAT) values over the region range
from 1.22 in over St. Croix to 1.45 in over northern Puerto Rico
as a patch of moisture moves mainly north of the region. Radar
estimated accumulations since midnight indicate up to 0.2 to 0.4
inches over north-central to eastern and eastern interior PR with
up to minimal accumulations over other areas of PR, Vieques,
Culebra and the USVI. Official and unofficial stations over
higher elevations of PR report lows in the low to mid 60s, with
satellite imagery detecting patchy fog in the area. Stations over
lower elevations of southwestern, southern, southeastern, and
northwestern interior PR again reported lows in the mid 60s to low
70s. Stations over lower elevations of the islands reported
minimum temperatures in the 70s. Some stations have also reported
reported max wind gusts ranging from 19 to 34 mph since midnight.

Breezy to windy conditions will continue as the dominant feature
of the forecast. A series of surface highs over the western to
central Atlantic will continue to promote breezy to windy ENE flow
as it tightens the local pressure gradient, becoming more E late
Sunday. This will promote a limited to elevated wind risk over the
islands, unsecured items could blow around. This breezy flow will
maintain 925 mb temperatures at normal values through the
weekend. Although the day will again start with fast-moving
showers over windward sectors, today will be the driest day of the
forecast period, as a patch of moisture with PWAT values reaching
below an inch and over the Anegada Passage, moves over the region
later this morning into late tonight. This will serve to limit
shower frequency over windward sectors later in the morning, and
afternoon convection over western PR. Another broad patch of
moisture, easterly disturbance, will move over the region late
tonight and into tomorrow, sustaining up to around 1.7 to 1.8 in
of PWAT (around 2 inches during afternoon convection over western
PR) above normal values. Above 1.5 inches of PWAT will remain on
Sunday as patches of moisture continue to filter into the region.
This above normal moisture will have increased instability for
most of the period as 500 mb temperatures will gradually cool as a
trough gradually approaches from the west later in the weekend.
An upper level jet will also provide ventilation over the area. A
limited flooding risk will remain during the period over eastern
PR each day and over western PR, tomorrow and Sunday, as fast-
moving trade wind showers continue to move over the region, mainly
over windward areas of the islands with the breezy to windy flow
pushing them further inland. Afternoon showers and possible
isolated t-storms are also forecast over western Puerto Rico,
particularly tomorrow and Sunday. Low concentrations of Saharan
Dust will continue to filter over the region, particularly today
and patchy fog is forecast over sectors of interior PR.

&&

.Long Term(Monday through Friday)...
Issued at 511 AM AST Fri Mar 6 2026

High pressure over the western Atlantic will remain the dominant
surface feature early in the period while gradually shifting
northeast. This pattern will maintain easterly to east-northeasterly
winds across the northeastern Caribbean. Moisture will be somewhat
fragmented early in the period, with precipitable water values near
typical to slightly below normal Monday into Tuesday. A deeper
moisture plume is expected to arrive Tuesday night and persist
through Thursday before drier air begins filtering back into the
region Thursday night. Aloft, a trough extending from near Jamaica
toward eastern Cuba early in the period will gradually weaken and
become more elongated while lingering near Hispaniola. At the same
time, an upper-level jet will remain positioned over or near the
forecast area, providing periods of divergence aloft and slightly
cooler temperatures that will promote ventilation across Puerto Rico
and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Winds are expected to gradually weaken
Wednesday into Thursday as the pressure gradient relaxes, though
another high pressure system building over the western Atlantic late
Thursday may signal the start of another period of strengthening
winds.

From a hazards perspective, breezy to locally windy conditions will
remain the primary concern early in the period, particularly Monday
through Tuesday. Winds are expected to ease somewhat by midweek
before potentially increasing again late Thursday. Rainfall will
remain a secondary concern, mainly from passing trade wind showers
affecting windward areas overnight and during the morning hours,
followed by locally driven afternoon showers across interior and
western Puerto Rico. As moisture increases Tuesday night through
Thursday and upper-level conditions remain somewhat favorable,
showers may become more numerous with the potential for isolated
thunderstorms. Periods of moderate rainfall could lead to brief
ponding of water in poor drainage areas, although the overall
flooding risk currently appears limited.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 511 AM AST Fri Mar 6 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected to continue, with brief MVFR
conditions. Breezy to locally windy ENE flow, mainly at 15 to 25
kts with higher gusts at 20 to 30 kts. Periods of fast moving
trade wind VCSH/-SHRA will continue to affect TJSJ/TISX/TIST/TJBQ,
with some affecting TJPS. After a lull this afternoon VCSH/-SHRA
frequency will increase once again after around 07/03Z for the
terminals. Winds decreasing after 05/23z to 5 to 15 kts with
higher gusts and higher near VCSH/-SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 511 AM AST Fri Mar 6 2026

A series of high pressure systems across the Atlantic will promote
fresh to locally strong east-northeasterly winds, resulting in
choppy to rough seas across most regional waters and local Caribbean
passages. Therefore, hazardous marine conditions will prevail
through at least early next week. An upper level-trough will
increase the chance of thunderstorm formation late in the weekend.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 511 AM AST Fri Mar 6 2026

Hazardous beach conditions continue across the islands due to
strengthening winds producing breezy to windy conditions and a trade-
wind swell spreading across the local waters and passages. The
latest local buoy observations indicate significant wave heights
between 4 and 6 feet with periods of 8 to 12 seconds,
particularly at nearshore buoys around Vieques, San Juan, and
Rincon. Given the current marine conditions, a Rip Current
Statement remains in effect for north- and east-facing beaches of
Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, St. Croix, St. Thomas, and St.
John through at least Sunday due to life- threatening rip currents
possible along the surf zone. Residents and visitors should
continue monitoring conditions and heed the advice of the beach
flag system, patrol flags, and posted signs. Although model
guidance suggests the swell may gradually diminish by late tonight,
hazardous conditions will likely persist through the weekend and
into early next week.

For the remaining beaches, a moderate rip current risk will continue
over the next several days. Beachgoers should exercise caution, as
life-threatening rip currents can still occur in the surf zone. For
additional information and location-specific rip current details,
please visit: weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for PRZ001-002-
     005-008-012-013.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for VIZ001-002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST Sunday for AMZ711-712-716-
     723-726-733-741.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for AMZ735.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES...MRR
LONG TERM...ICP
MARINE/BEACH FORECAST...CAM

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion