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042
FXCA62 TJSJ 251725
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
125 PM AST Thu Dec 25 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 108 PM AST Thu Dec 25 2025

* Hazardous marine and coastal conditions will continue today across
  the Atlantic waters and north- and east-facing beaches, although a
  gradual improvement is expected later today. Small Craft
  Advisories and High Surf Advisories are expected to expire later
  today or tonight, but conditions may remain dangerous for small
  vessels and near the shoreline.

* Life-threatening rip currents will persist through the weekend,
  even as surf heights lower. Swimming is strongly discouraged,
  and beach conditions may deteriorate again late Friday into
  Saturday as another northerly swell increases marine and coastal
  hazards.

* Weather conditions will trend drier and more stable through the
  weekend, with cooler temperatures and only brief, passing
  showers mainly affecting northern and eastern areas during the
  overnight and early morning hours.

* U.S. Virgin Islands: Marine and beach hazards will persist, with
  dangerous rip currents remaining the primary concern, and a
  potential increase in hazardous conditions late Friday into the
  weekend.


&&

.Short Term(This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 108 PM AST Thu Dec 25 2025

An unsettled pattern was observed during the morning hours, with
cloudiness and showers across the northeastern and eastern interior
of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The strongest shower
activity was observed across the San Juan Metro area, where rainfall
accumulations were near an inch. As of 11 AM, the remnants of the
frontal boundary moved slightly southward, and a drier airmass with
precipitable water values ranging from 1.0 to 1.1 inches moved into
the region. These surface conditions led to a significant reduction
in cloudiness and showers across most of the area. Some showers
remained across eastern sections of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands, but rainfall accumulations were insignificant.

A more tranquil and stable weather pattern is forecast for tonight
into Friday as a surface high pressure system over the western
Atlantic dominates the region within a north-northeasterly wind
flow. The surface-to-3 km wind flow will allow temperatures to drop,
as suggested by the 925 mb temperature. Therefore, residents can
expect cool nights in the coming days, with lows in the 50s at the
highest elevations and in the 60s and low 70s at lower elevations.
It will warm up during the day, with highs mostly in the 70s in the
mountains and in the low 80s along the coast. In terms of shower
probabilities, although surface conditions will remain mostly
favorable for a drier trend, some brief, short-lived showers cannot
be ruled out due to colder temperatures at 500 mb between -10 and -9
degrees and lower heights at 250 mb. Under the northeasterly wind
flow and advective pattern, showers are forecast during the early
morning and late evening along the Atlantic waters, moving southward
and streaming across the north coast.

&&

.Long Term(Sunday through next Wednesday)...
Issued at 338 AM AST Thu Dec 25 2025

The long-term forecast remains unchanged. Drier air behind a frontal
boundary will dominate the region through Monday, with
precipitable water (PWAT) values falling well below 1.0 inch.
However, isolated patches of moisture may occasionally move across
the area, promoting brief passing showers. Despite the prevailing
dry pattern early in the period, a building surface high over the
western Atlantic and a frontal low over the north-central
Atlantic will promote a northeasterly steering flow through
Monday. 925 mb temperatures are expected to remain below two
standard deviations for this time of year, supporting cooler-than-
usual conditions. Later in the workweek, temperatures are forecast
to moderate back to near-normal values.

Latest model guidance suggests that winds will gradually veer by
Tuesday, becoming southeasterly, allowing Caribbean moisture to
filter across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Along with
this wind shift, a trough moving across the area will result in a
wetter pattern, with increasing chances for showers and isolated
thunderstorms by midweek. Confidence regarding the specific timing
and impacts remains medium. Therefore, residents and visitors are
encouraged to continue monitoring the forecast, as more active
weather conditions could develop.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 108 PM AST Thu Dec 25 2025

VFR conditions will persist for all TAF sites during the period.
Surface winds will remain from the N-NE up to 15 knots with gusty
winds.  Some cloudiness and a few passing showers will result in
VCSH across eastern sites, but with no operational impacts. Winds
will persist from the N-NE, diminishing at around 26/03Z, and
increasing up to 15 knots at 26/14Z. Some -RA and -SHRA are possible
across TJSJ, TIST, & TISX from 26/00Z-26/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 108 PM AST Thu Dec 25 2025

A long-period northerly swell associated with a diminishing frontal
system continues to affect the offshore and nearshore Atlantic
waters and passages. However, recent nearshore and offshore buoy
observations indicate that swell energy is gradually diminishing,
with significant wave heights showing a slow downward trend. Seas
will remain choppy to rough across the Atlantic waters, but
conditions are expected to fall below Small Craft Advisory criteria
later tonight, allowing current advisories to likely expire.

Despite this temporary improvement, hazardous marine conditions are
likely to return this weekend. Another pulse of long-period
northerly swell is expected to arrive late Friday into early
Saturday, which may once again build seas to advisory levels across
the offshore and exposed Atlantic waters. As a result, Small Craft
Advisories may need to be reissued, particularly for small and
inexperienced vessels.

Mariners should continue to closely monitor forecasts, as conditions
may deteriorate again heading into the weekend.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 108 PM AST Thu Dec 25 2025

Hazardous coastal conditions will continue across the Atlantic-
facing beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, although
observations show that the current northerly swell is slowly
subsiding. This gradual decrease in swell energy should allow High
Surf Advisories to expire later today, as breaking wave heights
trend downward through the afternoon and evening.

However, impacts remain significant. The lingering long-period swell
will continue to produce life-threatening rip currents, and High Rip
Current Risk will persist through the weekend. These conditions pose
an extreme danger to swimmers, even as surf heights fall below
advisory thresholds.

Additionally, another northerly swell arriving Friday night into
Saturday is expected to reinforce hazardous rip current conditions
and could once again increase breaking wave heights along north- and
east-facing beaches. While it is too early to determine exact surf
magnitudes, High Surf Advisories cannot be ruled out with this next
swell event.

Beachgoers are strongly urged to remain out of the water, especially
at unguarded beaches, and heed all local beach safety statements and
advisories. For further information, refer to the Coastal Hazard
Message (CFWSJU).

For localized and updated risk levels, visit weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for PRZ001-002-
     005-008-010.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001-002-
     005-008-010.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ012.

     High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ013.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for VIZ001.

     High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for VIZ002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight AST tonight for AMZ711-712-
     716-723-726-741-742.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LIS
MARINE/BEACH FORECAST...CVB
LONG TERM...MMC

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion