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881
FXCA62 TJSJ 151826
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
226 PM AST Wed Apr 15 2026

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 225 PM AST Wed Apr 15 2026

* Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
  afternoon hours across northwestern Puerto Rico.

* Increasing instability from tomorrow and Friday, associated with
  an amplifying upper-level trough and enhanced moisture
  availability, will promote an active weather pattern,
  particularly each afternoon across northwest Puerto Rico.

* Southeasterly low-level winds will promote slightly above-normal
  temperatures across low-elevation and urban areas.

* A moderate risk of rip currents will persist along the north-
  exposed beaches of the islands over the next several days.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 225 PM AST Wed Apr 15 2026

During the morning hours, a mix of clear to partly cloudy skies
prevailed across the region, with only a few light showers and
minimal accumulations over Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin
Islands. Winds were mainly from the east to southeast at around 10
to 15 mph, with occasional higher gusts. Daytime maximum temperatures
have ranged from the low to mid-80s across low- elevation, urban,
and coastal areas, and from the 70s to the low 80s in the mountainous
regions. Across the USVI, temperatures have fluctuated in the upper
80s. Around noon, strong convective shower activity began developing
from the northern slopes into the northern municipalities, prompting
Flood Advisories and Special Weather Statements due to a strong
thunderstorm producing heavy rain, wind gusts, and possible small
hail.

For the rest of the afternoon, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected to continue moving across the north-
central into northwestern municipalities. This will result in a
continued elevated flood risk, including flooding in urban areas,
along roads and in small streams, as well as ponding of water in
poorly drained areas. Gusty winds and the potential for landslides
in steep terrain are also concerns. As the sun sets, activity
should diminish, leading to calmer conditions early tonight.

During the overnight hours into Thursday morning, the latest
high-resolution models suggest the development of isolated to
scattered showers across the waters, the USVI, Vieques, Culebra,
and eastern Puerto Rico. Conditions will become slightly more
favorable for instability as the cut-off low continues to drift
northeast and the upper-level trough amplifies just west of the
region, maintaining the divergent side of the system over much of
the eastern portion of the CWA. Then, during Thursday afternoon,
another round of active convection is expected from the interior
into the northwestern municipalities. A similar pattern is
anticipated on Friday.

Overall, for the remainder of the short-term forecast (Thursday
and Friday), the trough will meander over the area and combine
with above-normal moisture. With this setup, strong thunderstorms
are likely, capable of producing heavy rain, frequent lightning,
and gusty winds each afternoon across the northwestern quadrant.
Keep in mind that soils are saturated and streamflows remain
elevated, therefore, any additional persistent heavy rainfall
will maintain an elevated flooding risk each day.

&&

.LONG TERM(Saturday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 327 AM AST Wed Apr 15 2026

Variable conditions may persist through the weekend, with a gradual
improvement over the first part of the next workweek. Wind pattern
will mostly be dominated by a surface high pressure lingering over
the Central Atlantic, promoting winds from the E-SE. Another feature
that may influence the weather pattern in the deep-layered trough
that, according to the latest model guidance, is expected to linger
over Hispaniola. From the deterministic guidance of the GFS and
ECMWF, it seems that Saturday and Sunday will most likely be the
wettest days of the period, with PWAT values lingering between 1.8
and 2.0 inches, wet for this time of the year. Additionally, low to
mid level moisture content will remain high (above 60%), while model
sounding suggests skinny profiles. Conditions look favorable for
convection, as the influence of the trough will maintain slightly
cooler than normal mid level temperatures (around -8 degrees
Celsius) and a nearby jet with strong winds aloft (around 60 knots),
allowing cloud growth and ventilation. With the favorable side of
the trough over the CWA, divergence aloft will also increase the
chance of deeper convection, particularly over western Puerto Rico
and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Hence, for the U.S. Virgin Islands,
showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely move occasionally
throughout the day, while interior and western Puerto Rico can
expect showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon that may persist
into the evening. Due to previous rainfall activity, soil
saturation, and high river levels, the potential for flooding may
increase. Hence, the flooding threat will remain limited to elevated
for the aforementioned areas. Besides flooding, expect gusty winds
and lightning across these areas. For the rest of the areas, passing
showers may move from time to time, though a significant flooding
threat is not expected. Weather conditions will gradually improve
Monday onwards, as moisture content may decrease and the subsident
side of the trough moves over the CWA. Nevertheless, theres
uncertainty between global solutions as GFS continues with a wet
pattern (above normal PWAT) while the ECMWF on the side is moving
toward a more seasonal to drier pattern. From the latest grand
ensemble, theres variability between them (PWAT difference of half
an inch), particularly in the mid to high level moisture content. At
the moment, expect a seasonal weather pattern, with isolated showers
moving over windward sections in the morning hours, with afternoon
convection over interior and western Puerto Rico. Due to the
uncertainty, the flood threat will remain limited.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 225 PM AST Wed Apr 15 2026

VFR condt across most TAF sites, except TJBQ where periods of
MVFR condt are possible from 15/18Z-15/22Z with the SHRA/TSRA.
Winds will remain light 5-10kt with higher gusts through 15/22Z.
Variable winds after 16/03Z and increasing after 16/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 225 PM AST Wed Apr 15 2026

A surface high pressure system over the eastern to central Atlantic,
interacting with surface trough, will promote gentle to moderate
from the east-southeast. Pulses of northerly swell spreading
across the Atlantic waters are maintaining seas around 5 to 6 feet
across exposed areas, where small craft should exercise caution
over the next several days. The combination of the front and the
trough is increasing showers and thunderstorms across the local
waters, creating locally hazardous marine conditions through at
least the rest of the workweek.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 225 PM AST Wed Apr 15 2026

A High Rip Current Risk is in effect for the northwestern,
northern, and eastern exposed beaches of Puerto Rico and Culebra
through 6 PM due to the arrival of pulses of a weak northerly
swell. Beachgoers are urged to heed the advice of lifeguards, as
well as beach patrol flags and posted signs. Elsewhere, a low to
moderate risk of rip currents will persists. Increasing winds from
midweek onward could lead to a moderate risk of rip currents
persisting along north- exposed beaches through at least next
Saturday. Residents and visitors are encouraged to exercise
caution, especially along exposed coasts. For more specific area
details, refer to weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001-002-
     005-008-010-012.

VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...YZR
LONG TERM...MNG
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACH...MMC

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion