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924
FXCA62 TJSJ 071746
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
146 PM AST Wed Jan 7 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 138 PM AST Wed Jan 7 2026

* Life-threatening rip currents are expected along the northwest to
  northeast facing beaches of Puerto Rico, with a High Rip Current
  Risk in effect through at least Thursday afternoon due to a
  persistent northeasterly swell across the Atlantic waters. A
  moderate to high risk will continue for north and east-facing
  beaches of the U.S. Virgin Islands.

* Seasonal weather conditions will persist through Friday, with
  passing showers mainly during the overnight and morning hours
  across eastern and northeastern areas, and afternoon showers over
  the interior and western to southwestern portions of Puerto Rico.
  The highest rainfall activity is expected on Thursday afternoon,
  with localized ponding of water possible in poor drainage and low-
  lying areas.

* Seasonal and generally pleasant temperatures will prevail across
  the islands through the short-term period, with highs near
  climatological normals, cooler conditions across higher
  elevations.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 138 PM AST Wed Jan 7 2026

Weather conditions during the morning hours remained fairly calm
across the region, with only a few passing showers affecting
northeastern portions of Puerto Rico. These showers were brief and
light, resulting in no significant rainfall accumulations or
impacts. Overall, stable conditions prevailed through the early
morning hours.

The synoptic pattern remains largely unchanged, with a surface
trough positioned northeast of the area and lingering weak
troughiness aloft across the northeastern Caribbean. The 07/12Z TJSJ
sounding showed a notably drier air mass in place, with precipitable
water values near 1.04 inches and mid-level relative humidity around
21%. These values are below the 10th percentile of climatological
normals, which helped limit shower coverage during the morning hours.

However, satellite-derived advected layered precipitable water
imagery indicates increasing moisture in the 850-700 mb and 700-500
mb layers approaching from the northeast. This gradual moisture
increase, combined with daytime heating and local effects, may allow
for some convective development this afternoon, although activity is
expected to remain mostly shallow. Therefore, shower activity is
expected to develop mainly across the interior and
western/southwestern portions of Puerto Rico, with limited rainfall
accumulations.

Similar weather conditions are expected through Friday. Weak
troughiness aloft will persist, while fluctuations in low-level
moisture will continue to be the primary driver for shower activity.
High-Res model guidance suggests that Thursday afternoon is likely
to feature the highest rainfall activity across interior and western
to southwestern Puerto Rico. While widespread flooding is not
anticipated, periods of moderate rainfall could result in localized
ponding of water on roadways and in poor drainage or low-lying
areas, particularly where showers persist. Urban and small stream
flooding impacts are expected to remain limited. As the surface
trough northeast of the area continues to move eastward, winds will
gradually shift from the northeast to a more easterly direction
beginning Thursday, remaining generally light to moderate. Passing
showers will continue to affect portions of eastern and northeastern
Puerto Rico during the overnight and morning hours.

Seasonal temperatures will prevail throughout the short-term period,
resulting in generally pleasant conditions across the islands. High
temperatures will remain near climatological normals, with cooler
conditions across the higher elevations and valleys.

&&

.Long Term(Saturday through next Tuesday)...
Issued at 330 AM AST Wed Jan 7 2026

A strong surface high-pressure system will shift from the western to
the central Atlantic during the first half of the long-term period,
maintaining moderate to locally fresh east-northeast winds through
midweek. The forecast remains on track as a weak surface-induced
trough brings patches of moisture into the region on Saturday;
however, precipitable water values will remain at normal to slightly
below climatological normals, ranging between 1.15 and 1.35 inches.
Despite these relatively dry conditions, the combination of east-
northeast flow, daytime heating, and local effects will likely
trigger afternoon showers across portions of southwestern Puerto
Rico, though rainfall accumulations should remain below 1.00 inch.

By Monday and continuing through midweek, upper-level dynamics will
shift as a ridge builds over the southwestern Atlantic and a
Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) develops over the north-
central Atlantic. These features will promote drier air aloft and
generally more stable conditions. Consequently, shower activity
during this period will be driven primarily by the northeasterly
trade winds, favoring an advective pattern that brings passing
showers to the U.S. Virgin Islands and northern and eastern Puerto
Rico, particularly during the overnight and early morning hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 138 PM AST Wed Jan 7 2026

Mainly VFR conds expected to prevail across all terminals thru the
fcst period. However, SHRA embedded in the trades could move at
times in and around TJPS during aftn hrs, resulting in brief MVFR
cigs/vsbys. SCT/BKN clds btw FL030-FL060 expected. NE winds 10-15
kt with sea breeze variations and occasional higher gusts thru
23Z becmg lighter overnight. Winds increasing and shifting more
E-ENE aft 08/13Z with sea breeze variations and higher gusts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 138 PM AST Wed Jan 7 2026

A long-period northeasterly swell will continue to spread across
the Atlantic waters and local Caribbean passages, resulting in
building seas up to 6 feet. Small craft should exercise caution
under these conditions. A surface high pressure over the western
Atlantic, along with weak induced surface troughs northeast of the
region, will promote moderate east to northeast trade winds today
through the the rest of the week.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 138 PM AST Wed Jan 7 2026

Hazardous coastal conditions will continue across the local beaches
through at least Thursday afternoon due to a persistent
northeasterly swell affecting the Atlantic waters. This swell will
maintain life-threatening rip current conditions along the northwest
to northeast-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, where a High Rip Current
Risk remains in effect. Life-threatening rip currents are possible
will persist along north and east-facing beaches of the U.S. Virgin
Islands, where a moderate rip current risk is expected.

For localized and updated risk levels, visit
weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for PRZ001-002-
     005-008.

VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/BEACH...CVB
PUBLIC DESK....RVT

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion