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605
FXCA62 TJSJ 290755
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
355 AM AST Thu Jan 29 2026


.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 313 AM AST Thu Jan 29 2026

* Mostly fair and stable weather conditions are expected through
  Friday, with brief morning showers across eastern areas of
  Puerto Rico and the USVI, and afternoon showers developing over
  western and northwestern Puerto Rico; minor ponding on roads is
  possible.

* There is an increasing risk of urban and small stream flooding
  from the weekend into early next week with the approach of a
  frontal boundary from the west of the region.

* A High Rip Current Risk is in effect for the beaches from Rincon
  to Fajardo, Culebra, and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands.
  Please remember, rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers
  away from shore into deeper water, where it becomes difficult to
  return to safety.

* For boaters, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the
  northern offshore waters through tonight.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 313 AM AST Thu Jan 29 2026

A moist shallow layer up to 8kft brought mostly cloudy skies
overnight and light passing showers across the regional waters.
Minor rainfall accumulations were observed over portions of the USVI
and eastern PR. Minimum temperatures were from the low and mid 70s
across the lower elevations to the low 60s across the higher
elevations. The wind was light and variable over land areas. For the
rest of the morning hours passing showers will continue to move at
times across the east and southern portions of PR, followed by
moderate to locally heavy showers developing over the NW quadrant of
PR this afternoon. The precipitable water content is expected to
fluctuate between 1.00-1.50 inches through the rest of the short
term period.

For Friday, a weak induced surface trough will bring another surge
in low-level moisture content, enhancing morning showers across the
USVI and inducing the development of shallow afternoon convection
over the mountain ranges of PR. Winds are expected to turn more
southerly by Friday under the influence of a weak surface high
pressure east of the region and frontal boundary to our north. These
winds are expected to steer showers across the northern coastal
areas of PR late in the afternoon hours.

A gradual trend into a wetter pattern is still expected for Saturday
as pooling of moisture continues across the eastern Caribbean under
a deep layer southerly wind flow. The flood risk is expected to
increase in general during the weekend, residents and visitors are
urged to monitor the weather conditions.

&&

.Long Term(Sunday through Thursday)...
Issued at 313 AM AST Thu Jan 29 2026

The long-term forecast remains tied to a frontal boundary lingering
over Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The latest global
models continue to suggest an increase in precipitable water content
to between 2.00 and 2.25 inches, well above climatological normals,
from Sunday through midweek.

At the upper levels, the region will remain positioned between a
trough over the western Atlantic and a ridge to the southeast
through late Tuesday or Wednesday. Depending on the exact placement
and evolution of these features, the combination of upper-level
dynamics and persistent low-level moisture convergence along the
frontal boundary will support widespread rainfall. This activity is
expected to increase in coverage from Sunday through Tuesday across
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Given the anticipated atmospheric setup, there is a significant
potential for heavy rainfall across the area beginning early next
week. As the front approaches on Sunday and Monday, the influx of
Caribbean moisture, south-southeasterly winds, daytime heating, and
local orographic effects will likely trigger heavy rain across
portions of northwestern and northern Puerto Rico. As the front
passes over the islands, winds will shift from the north, pushing
rainfall activity toward the eastern, southeastern, and southern
portions of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands from late Monday
through Wednesday.

Potential impacts include ponding of water on roadways, urban and
small-stream flooding, and localized flash flooding. Isolated
thunderstorms and gusty winds cannot be ruled out with the heavier
shower activity. In general, weather conditions are expected to
remain unsettled, with the primary concerns being above-normal
rainfall and localized flooding potential through at least Wednesday.
&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 313 AM AST Thu Jan 29 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail across all terminals
during the next 24 hrs. However, SCT/BKN cigs btw FL030-060 should
continue over the PR terminals through the mid-morning hours with
mostly VCSH expected. Afternoon SHRA expected in and around TJBQ fm
29/18-23z, causing tempo MVFR to brief IFR conds. Low-level winds
will continue ESE at 8-12 kt with sea breeze variations and higher
gusts aft 29/14z.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 313 AM AST Thu Jan 29 2026

Light to moderate easterly winds will prevail through the end of the
week as surface high pressure shifts eastward, with seas generally
subsiding across the local waters with the exception of some pulses
of swell arriving from time to time.

By Monday, a northwesterly to northerly long- period swell is
expected to reach the regional waters, combining with increasing
winds to produce choppy to rough seas and potentially hazardous
marine conditions, including Small Craft Advisory criteria across
the offshore Atlantic waters and passages. An increase in shower
and thunderstorm activity is also expected from this weekend into
early next week, especially over the northwestern Atlantic waters
and the Mona Passage, with lightning and gusty winds possible.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 313 AM AST Thu Jan 29 2026

Pulses of weak northerly swells will continue to affect the
Atlantic waters through the remainder of the week, with the
strongest pulse expected this afternoon. A high rip current risk
is in effect for the beaches from Rincon to Fajardo, Culebra, and
the northern U.S. Virgin Islands through tonight. Beachgoers are
encouraged to monitor the forecast for updates and changing
conditions. Please remember, rip currents can sweep even the best
swimmers away from shore into deeper water, where it becomes
difficult to return to safety.

Residents and visitors should also note that beach conditions may
further deteriorate early next week due to increasing winds and
the arrival of a stronger northwesterly to northerly long-period
swell, potentially leading to hazardous beach conditions.
Additionally, a change in the weather pattern may bring showers
and thunderstorms from this weekend into early next week,
increasing risks for beachgoers.


&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for PRZ001-002-005-
     008-010-012.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for VIZ001.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight AST tonight for AMZ711.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSR
LONG TERM...GRS

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion