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FXCA62 TJSJ 150625 CCA
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
225 AM AST Sun Feb 15 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 222 AM AST Sun Feb 15 2026

* Frequent showers will persist today, with an elevated risk of
  urban and small stream flooding along the interior and northern
  Puerto Rico. Avoid visiting rivers and driving along flooded
  roadways.

* Showers will also move across the Virgin Islands. Ponding of
  water on roadways and low-lying areas is anticipated in some areas.

* Marine and coastal conditions will deteriorate again later
  today, with conditions hazardous for small boats along the
  Atlantic waters, and for swimmers along northern Puerto Rico,
  Culebra, St. Thomas and St. John. &&

.Short Term(Today through Tuesday)...
Issued at 222 AM AST Sun Feb 15 2026

The night hours were active along a great portion of Puerto Rico,
with widespread showers and even isolated thunderstorms along the
west interior, and northwest. Showers were less frequent in the
Virgin Islands, but still, some interruptions of rain were observed.
Flood advisories were needed for portions of the San Juan metro area
and northwestern Puerto Rico , since heavy showers were reported.
Additionally, water surges were reported by the USGS river sensors
across many sites in Puerto Rico.

All this rain that is moving over the islands is associated with a
frontal boundary stationary north of Puerto Rico. In fact, a swath of
above normal moisture is evident in the satellite-derived
precipitable water product. Behind the front, high pressure will
roll eastward north of the islands, with winds coming out of the
northeast on Sunday, east on Monday, and southeast on Tuesday. the
surface winds will continue to push moisture from the north today,
so showers will be scattered to numerous along the local islands. In
the morning, the heaviest activity is expected to reach the northern
half of Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. In the afternoon, these
showers will also begin to affect the south. Additional areas of
ponding of water, water surges along rivers can be anticipated.
Also, some areas, especially along the interior and northern Puerto
Rico may experience urban and small stream flooding.

Conditions look drier by Monday and Tuesday, with drier air
gradually filtering in at the mid levels. The dew point depression
at the lower levels is expected to be big enough to suppress
organized shower activity. Short-lived activity cannot be ruled out
along the east of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (10-20%
probability of precipitation), with some additional showers in the
west each afternoon. In general, fair weather is anticipated to
begin the workweek. Temperatures will warm up too, with 925 mb
temperatures about one standard deviation above normal.

&&

.Long Term(Wednesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 222 AM AST Sun Feb 15 2026

The long-term period will begin with a passing upper-level short-
wave trough and associated zonal jet support moving across the
region. This feature will briefly promote slightly cooler-than-
normal mid-level temperatures and modest instability early in the
period. However, moisture will remain shallow and largely confined
below 700 mb, with persistent dry air aloft limiting vertical
development. By late week, deep-layer high pressure will build,
gradually stabilizing conditions. As this high strengthens and
shifts eastward through the weekend into early next week, the local
pressure gradient will tighten before relaxing, resulting in
strengthening easterly winds that later veer to the southeast and
weaken. Mid-level temperatures will warm back to near normal by late
week and trend slightly above normal at times early next week, while
low-level temperatures respond to the developing southeasterly flow
with a gradual warming trend.

In terms of hazards and sensible weather, shower activity will
remain limited throughout the period due to shallow moisture and a
persistent trade wind inversion. Expect mainly brief overnight and
morning trade-wind showers across eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands, followed by isolated afternoon convection over
interior and western Puerto Rico. Flooding concerns are expected to
remain low given limited moisture depth and dry mid-level
conditions. The primary hazard focus will shift to wind-related
impacts late in the week and over the weekend, as fresh to locally
strong easterly winds promote breezy periods across coastal and
elevated areas. Early next week, winds will veer to the southeast
and gradually weaken, while above-normal temperatures become more
likely under continued generally stable conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 222 AM AST Sun Feb 15 2026

SHRA and isolated TSRA will continue to move at times through most
of the forecast period. Periods of reduced VIS and low ceilings are
anticipated, along most of the terminals, but especially along
TJSJ/TJBQ/TIST. Mountain obscuration is also expected across the
Cordillera Central from 15-22Z. Winds will come from the ENE at 11-
13 kts, with stronger gusts, especially along TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 222 AM AST Sun Feb 15 2026

A cold front moving across the northeast Caribbean will promote
moderate to locally fresh northeast to east-northeast winds through
at least Monday. This front will result in increasing cloud cover
and rain chances as well as isolated thunderstorms. A long-period
northerly swell will arrive around this afternoon, through early
Monday morning, building seas between 5 and 7 feet across the
offshore Atlantic waters, and possibly across the Mona Passage.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 222 AM AST Sun Feb 15 2026

We advise all beachgoers to exercise caution, particularly along the
north-facing beaches from Rincon to Fajardo and throughout
eastern Puerto Rico, including Culebra, as well as St. Thomas, St.
John, and St. Croix. The risk of rip currents is moderate in
these areas during the morning and early afternoon. The risk will
be high later this evening into early Monday morning as a long-
period northerly swell moves in, meaning that life-threatening rip
currents are likely in the surf zone. On President`s Day, the
risk of life- threatening rip currents will remain moderate along
the north-facing beaches. Do not put your life at risk. For more
information, visit:
weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk from this evening through late tonight for
     PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012.

VI...High Rip Current Risk from this evening through late tonight for
     VIZ001.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to noon AST Monday for
     AMZ711.

&&

$$

ERG

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion