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382
FXCA62 TJSJ 251829
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
229 PM AST Wed Mar 25 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 221 PM AST Wed Mar 25 2026

* Unsettled weather will continue to persist across the region
  through the weekend with periods of showers and isolated
  thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon hours. This
  activity will lead to urban and small stream flooding and quick
  river rises.

* A moderate risk of rip currents will continue across the
  northern and eastern exposed beaches of the islands.

* Coastal conditions will deteriorate by early next week due to
  the arrival of a long-period northerly swell arriving late
  Monday night. This swell could produce dangerous breaking waves
  and hazardous coastal conditions through at least midweek,
  peaking around Tuesday.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 221 PM AST Wed Mar 25 2026

Wet and unstable conditions prevailed across the region today.
Moderate to heavy showers developed across eastern and northern
Puerto Rico during the morning hours under an easterly wind flow.
These showers produced less than 1 inch of rain, with radar
estimating the highest accumulations in Carolina, San Juan, and
Guaynabo. By late afternoon, clouds deepened over the interior and
shifted toward western Puerto Rico, resulting in heavy showers from
Adjuntas to Aguada and nearby municipalities. Doppler radar
estimated between 1 and 3 inches of rain in these areas, prompting
Flood Advisories through the early evening.

For the remainder of the day, showers will continue to develop
across central and western Puerto Rico, with the potential for
isolated thunderstorms. There is currently an elevated flooding risk
across the area. Expected hazards include urban and small-stream
flooding, ponding of water in areas with poor drainage, landslides,
and rapid river rises. Residents and visitors are encouraged to
monitor weather conditions closely and avoid flood-prone areas,
particularly during the evening commute.

Unsettled weather is expected to persist across Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands. Surface winds will remain east-southeast
through Thursday, becoming easterly on Friday as a high-pressure
system migrates toward the eastern Atlantic. Over the next several
days, instability will be enhanced by a 90 knot subtropical jet just
south of the islands. This pattern, enhanced by daytime heating and
local effects, will increase upper-level divergence, supporting a
more active convective pattern across the islands through the rest
of the period.

&&

.Long Term(Saturday through next Tuesday)...
Issued at 221 PM AST Wed Mar 25 2026

A mid- to upper-level low will move northeast of the northeastern
Caribbean between Saturday and Sunday. This feature will induce
trade wind perturbations that will periodically move across Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, promoting passing showers,
particularly across windward areas. Expect a variable pattern
through the weekend, with a mix of sunshine and brief periods of
showery weather, mainly during the overnight and morning hours as
these disturbances advect across the region. During the afternoon
hours, local effects and sea breeze convergence will support
isolated to scattered convection, mainly across the interior and
southwestern Puerto Rico.

From Monday through midweek, a mid- to upper-level trough
interacting with an approaching frontal boundary will promote a more
unsettled, wetter pattern across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands. Increasing moisture and instability will support a higher
coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Breezy to locally windy
conditions are also possible as winds strengthen behind the frontal
boundary.

Coastal conditions will deteriorate during this period. A long-
period northerly swell arriving late Monday night could produce
dangerous breaking waves and hazardous coastal conditions through at
least midweek, peaking around Tuesday.

The potential impacts for the first part of the holiday week include
urban and small-stream flooding, a limited risk of flash flooding,
isolated thunderstorms with lightning, breezy to windy conditions,
life-threatening rip currents, high surf, and possible coastal
flooding along vulnerable north- and west-facing coastlines.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 221 PM AST Wed Mar 25 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals; however,
brief MVFR/IFR impacts are possible through 25/23Z at TJSJ, TJBQ,
and TJPS. VCSH will continue to to affect TIST and TISX through
25/22-23Z. Surface winds will persist from the E-ESE at 1015 kt
with gusts up to 25 kt near the heaviest activity. Winds will
decrease below 10 kt aft 25/22Z through 26/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 221 PM AST Wed Mar 25 2026

A weak surface high pressure over the southwestern Atlantic will
merge with a stronger high pressure over the north central Atlantic
by the end of the workweek. This will promote light to moderate
trades for the next several days. Seas will remain at 5 feet or less
through the weekend. Marine conditions will gradually deteriorate
early next week, as a large swell is forecast to build seas up to 10
feet and spread across the local Atlantic waters and passages.
Additionally, winds will likely strengthen and become moderate to
locally fresh due to the approaching front and the development of a
stronger surface high pressure over the western Atlantic.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 221 PM AST Wed Mar 25 2026

The beach forecast remains on track. The moderate risk of rip
currents continues across western, northern, and eastern beaches of
Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin
Islands. Beachgoers should remain alert and exercise caution, as
life-threatening rip currents are still possible along the surf
zone. The southern beaches of Puerto Rico, on the other hand, remain
under a low risk of rip currents. These conditions should continue
for the next few days.

As mentioned in the previous discussions, a long-period northerly
swell continues on the forecast by early next week, arriving and
spreading across the local Atlantic waters and passages. From the
latest model guidance, seas up to 10 feet and periods between 11 and
12 seconds could produce large breaking waves over northern beaches
of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, hazardous for
beachgoers. Once again, residents and visitors are encouraged to
continue to stay informed and updated with the latest beach
forecasts, as life-threatening rip currents and high surf conditions
cannot be ruled out.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GRS
LONG TERM....CAM
PUBLIC/MARINE/BEACH FORECAST...MNG

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion