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364
FXCA62 TJSJ 140705
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
305 AM AST Sat Feb 14 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 305 AM AST Sat Feb 14 2026

 * A deteriorating weather pattern is expected from today into
   Sunday with the arrival of a frontal boundary. For today, there
   is a limited to elevated flood threat across the interior
   sections of Puerto Rico. Residents can experience minor
   flooding across urban an low-lying areas, as well a few
   flooding along small streams with the heaviest activity.

 * The northerly winds for today into Sunday morning will enhance
   slightly colder temperatures across the islands tonight.

 * There is a low to moderate risk of rip currents across all
  exposed beaches on the islands today.

 * For the U.S. Virgin Islands, shower activity is anticipated
   and forecast from Saturday night into Sunday morning.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Monday)...
Issued at 305 AM AST Sat Feb 14 2026

A stable weather pattern persisted in the early morning hours
across the islands, with mostly clear skies. A line of light to
moderate showers was noted by the Doppler Radar over the Caribbean
water moving slowly across the Caribbean waters. Winds were light
and variable. Overnight temperatures ranged from the mid 70s
across the urban and coastal areas to the low to mid 60s in the
mountains.

A slow deterioration in the weather pattern is forecast from
today (Valentines Day) into Sunday as a cold front and its
associated pre-frontal trough approach the region. At the surface,
the induced trough will move southward, weakening the pressure
gradient and promoting light and variable winds during the morning
hours, followed by a more northerly wind flow as the trough
continues to shift south. Under this evolving pattern, low-level
moisture with precipitable water values ranging between 1.5 and
1.7 inches, based on satellite-derived imagery data, will spread
across the islands. Aloft, divergence at the mid to upper levels
combined with colder mid-level temperatures between -8 and -9
degrees Celsius will enhance instability and favor vertical
development. Therefore, the forecast calls for variable morning
hours with moderate to heavy showers along the interior section
this afternoon. Rainfall accumulations for today can be a thing
due to the slow movement of the showers and the light winds. Given
the expected conditions, there is a limited to elevated flood
threat along the Cordillera Central. The main hazard will be
mostly the minor flooding in urban areas, with the heaviest shower
activity, and some flooding possible across urban areas and small
streams. However, some isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled
out, with the heaviest activity. Tonight, conditions are not
expected to improve, as moisture and cloudiness associated with
the frontal boundary continue to reach the islands. Similar to
past weeks with the arrival of frontal bands, residents across the
islands can expect mostly cloudy to overcast skies for much of
the time, along with light showers across northern sections of
Puerto Rico. A northerly wind flow prevailing for most of the day
will promote cooler daytime high temperatures, favoring even
cooler overnight temperatures that will fall below seasonal
normals. On Sunday, the northerly wind flow will persist, and
conditions associated with the lingering moisture and cloudiness
from the frontal boundary will continue, making Sunday the
cloudiest day of the period.

Weather conditions will begin to change late Sunday afternoon
into Monday as a building surface high-pressure system across the
Central Atlantic results in winds veering more from the north-
northeast and eventually from the east. This pattern will push
shower activity toward eastern sections by Sunday night. On
Monday, the wind flow will turn more from the east-southeast as
the surface high interacts with another frontal boundary just west
of the Atlantic; this shift will mainly result in a decrease in
moisture across the region, allowing a slightly drier air mass to
filter in along with somewhat warmer temperatures, especially
across areas that experience good periods of sunshine during the
day.

&&

.Long Term(Tuesday through Saturday)...
Issued at 305 AM AST Sat Feb 14 2026

The long-term period will be dominated by generally calm weather
conditions, with only a few passing showers at times and no
indications of an elevated or significant flooding risk. By late
Tuesday, a mid- to upper-level ridge will establish across the
forecast area, while a surface high pressure system builds in,
promoting more stable conditions. PWAT values are now ranging
between the 50th and 25th percentiles, or near to below normal for
this time of year, with values decreasing from around 1.40 inches to
near 1.00 inch. As a result, shower coverage is expected to remain
limited, with trade-wind moisture favoring brief passing morning
showers across eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands,
followed by isolated afternoon convective development over interior
and western Puerto Rico as mostly easterly winds prevail. These
conditions are expected to prevail through Friday.

Overall, the flooding threat should remain low through the end of
the period as stable conditions continue to dominate. Nevertheless,
the public is encouraged to continue monitoring the forecast for any
changes.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 305 AM AST Sat Feb 14 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for all the TAF sites during the
period. Winds will remain light and VRB until 14/14Z, then become
from the N at 10 knots or less. At 14/17Z, an increase in SHRA is
forecast across the Cordillera Central, resulting in lower
ceilings and affecting the FL020 to FL040. The SHRA will affect
mostly TJPS at 14/19Z to 14/22Z. VCTS cannot be ruled out during
that period along TJPS. VCHS to SHRA are expected from 14/18Z to
14/23Z across TJBQ & TJSJ, mostly lowering ceilings. OVC skies
are expected from 15/00Z to 15/06Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 AM AST Sat Feb 14 2026

A surface high-pressure across the central to eastern Atlantic,
interacting with an approaching cold front across the western
Atlantic will lead to light to gentle southeast to east-southeast
winds through Saturday afternoon. Then, the cold front will bring
back moderate northeast to east-northeast winds from Saturday
evening into early Monday morning, along with increasing cloud cover
and rain chances. Additionally, a pulse of long-period northerly
swell will arrive around Sunday evening and continue into Monday,
increasing wave heights to around 5 to 7 feet. Small craft operators
will likely need to exercise caution, particularly across the
Atlantic waters and Mona passage.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 305 AM AST Sat Feb 14 2026

There is a low to moderate risk of rip current along all the
coastal exposed beaches today. For the northern sections,
including Culebra the risk will remain moderate. The rest of the
areas of the main islands Puerto Rico, Vieques and the U.S.
Virgin Islands will enjoy a low risk of rip current. From Sunday
evening, there will be additional pulses of long-period northerly
swell reaching the Atlantic coast. This energy will increase the
risk to high once again. Residents and visitors are urge to stay
tune for further updates of possible statements. For more
information, visit: weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM, AVIATION, KEY MESSAGES, BEACH FORECAST...LIS LONG
TERM....MMC MARINE...CAM

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion