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785
FXCA62 TJSJ 261840
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
240 PM AST Mon Jan 26 2026

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 240 PM AST Mon Jan 26 2026

* Choppy marine conditions will continue due to breezy winds, with
  gradual improvement through midweek as winds ease.

* Hazardous seas and coastal conditions may return late next weekend
  as long-period northerly swell combines with an approaching
  frontal boundary, potentially affecting regional waters and
  exposed coastlines.

* Passing showers will affect the islands at times through the week,
  with a low risk of minor flooding, mainly in urban and poor-
  drainage areas.

* Rainfall coverage and intensity are expected to increase late
  next weekend as moisture increases ahead of a weakening front,
  with localized heavy rainfall possible.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 240 PM AST Mon Jan 26 2026

Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands experienced mostly sunny
skies early today, but a surge of moisture quickly increased cloud
cover and brought showers to the area. These rains were moderate to
locally heavy at times, leading to some water ponding on roadways
throughout the morning. High temperatures stayed in the mid to upper
80s along the coast, while winds out from the east to east-southeast
at 15 to 20 mph. Residents likely noticed stronger gusts and shifts
in the breeze due to local sea-breeze variations.

Tonight through Wednesday, high pressure will maintain a steady
breeze across the region. Winds will remain near normal, between 10
and 20 mph, though they will be locally stronger in some areas. Over
the next few days, expect these winds to slowly diminish in
intensity.

A ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere will limit the
potential for thunderstorms; however, local effects, such as sea
breeze, topography, and daytime heating, will still trigger shower
formation each day. These showers are most likely across the
interior and western Puerto Rico during the afternoon and evening
hours. While the risk of flooding is currently marginal to none,
these passing showers will move quickly enough to cause occasional
water ponding on roadways.

By Wednesday, although patches of drier air will move in, resulting
in mostly fair weather across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico, we cannot rule out occasional moisture, bringing a few
isolated, brief showers.

The southeast wind flow will also push temperatures above normal.
Expect highs between 87 and 89 degrees in coastal areas. Overnight
lows will remain comfortable, staying in the 70s along the coast and
dipping into the 60s in the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)...
Issued at 414 AM AST Mon Jan 26 2026

The overall synoptic pattern will remain largely unchanged through
the early part of the period. Ridging aloft will persist across the
region through at least Friday, while limited low-level moisture
supports generally fair weather conditions. As a result, stable
conditions are expected to continue, with only brief passing showers
mainly driven by patches of moisture streaming across the area from
time to time.

Changes in the pattern become more noticeable toward the latter part
of the weekend. Global model guidance continues to suggest
increasing moisture associated with a weakening frontal boundary,
although the timing of this feature has been pushed back. Moisture
advection from the south ahead of the approaching boundary remains a
consistent signal among global models, particularly by late Sunday.
This increase in moisture, combined with modest instability, will
support a higher frequency of showers, especially across the
Caribbean waters and western sections of Puerto Rico. The Galvez-
Davison Index indicates elevated values near the frontal boundary,
suggesting an increased potential for heavy rainfall-producing
thunderstorms approaching from the west as the boundary nears the
islands.

Potential impacts by the end of the period include periods of
locally heavy rainfall, isolated thunderstorms, and ponding of water
in poor drainage areas, with a limited risk of urban and small-
stream flooding. Gusty wind conditions may also accompany convective
activity, particularly near thunderstorms.

Southeasterly to southerly low-level flow ahead of the boundary will
develop late by the end of the week into the weekend, promoting
above normal temperatures across the islands.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 240 PM AST Mon Jan 26 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail. VCSH or -SHRA possible
across TJBQ over the next few hours. Aft 27/06-09Z, showers are
expected across USVI TAF sites, then moving to TJSJ during the
morning hours. Some periods of reduced VIS and low cigs can be
anticipated. Winds from the E-SE at around 15 kts with higher
gusts, generally becoming lighter after 26/22Z, then picking up
again around 27/13-14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 240 PM AST Mon Jan 26 2026

A strong high-pressure system will keep a frontal boundary to the
west of the Northeast Caribbean until it eventually fades. This
system will strengthen local winds, bringing moderate to fresh
easterly winds, and causing choppy seas through much of the workweek.
While a small northerly swell is expected around Thursday, a second,
long-period northeasterly swell could arrive by the weekend or early
next week.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 240 PM AST Mon Jan 26 2026

Breezy conditions continue across the regional waters, maintaining
choppy seas and a moderate risk of rip currents along the north
and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, including Culebra, as well
as the U.S. Virgin Islands. Over the next few days, winds are
expected to gradually subside through the week, however a moderate
risk of life-threatening rip currents is expected to prevail
across exposed beaches. Hazardous coastal conditions may return
late next weekend, please continue to monitor the forecast updates.
For localized and updated rip current risk information, visit
weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE...CAM
LONG TERM...CVB
AVIATION/BEACH...YZR

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion