Hurricane Season runs from June 1-November 30
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478 FXCA62 TJSJ 021840 AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 240 PM AST Tue Dec 2 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 235 PM AST Tue Dec 2 2025 * A surface trough will continue to produce showers and isolated thunderstorms across portions of Puerto Rico this afternoon. A limited to localized elevated flooding threat can be expected. * Daily passing showers and a few afternoon thunderstorms will continue through the period in a typical seasonal pattern. * U.S. Virgin Islands may experience brief periods of moderate to heavy showers over or near the islands, but impacts should be limited to ponding on roadways and in areas with poor drainage. * Moderate rip currents will persist through most of the week along the north and east coasts of Puerto Rico and the USVI. Small craft should exercise caution from Wednesday onward as a weak northeasterly swell and increasing winds return. && .Short Term(This evening through Thursday)... Issued at 235 PM AST Tue Dec 2 2025 The frequency of showers increased during the morning hours, with some moving over northern and eastern portions of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Based on WSR-88D rainfall estimates, localized areas in St. Croix reached 0.35 inches, but did not present a flood threat. The 12z sounding showed an increase in moisture content compared to the 02/00z sounding (PWAT values from 1.35 to 1.67 inches). As the surface trough slowly approaches the local area, winds now from the NE-ENE continue to weaken with 0-1 km mean below 10 kt, meaning that showers may move slower. The mid- level temperatures slightly increased this morning, as the RAOB reported a 500 mb temperature of -7.7 degrees Fahrenheit, cooler than normal. Nevertheless, it is still an indicator of potential deep convection this afternoon. Due to mostly clear skies over the mountain ranges of Puerto Rico, convection activity started by midday, with some showers and isolated thunderstorms developing over those areas. So far, radar rainfall estimates ranged between 1.3 - 1.5 inches at Yabucoa and San Lorenzo, while Vieques and Guayama reached 1.70 - 1.90 inches. Variable conditions will persist through the forecast period. Although the surface trough is expected to cross the region tonight and retire by tomorrow, low to mid level relative humidity will keep increasing as winds shift from the east and pool seasonal to above- normal moisture content. From the probabilistic guidance of the GFS and ECMWF, theres a higher chance of observing seasonal to above climatological normal Precipitable Water (PWAT) values (1.6 - 1.8 inches). The most likely scenario could be showers moving across the waters into windward sections tonight into tomorrow, with afternoon convection over the interior and western portions of Puerto Rico. Nevertheless, based on the latest guidance, the upper-level trough is expected to move over the Leeward Islands, with the subsidence area over the CWA limiting deeper convection activity. Guidance also suggests warmer than normal 500 mb temperatures (up to -5 degrees Fahrenheit), inhibiting cloud growth. Additionally, winds will gradually increase tomorrow, with showers becoming more progressive and less stationary. Rainfall accumulations will likely promote ponding of water over roadways, poorly drained and urban areas. Given the expected weather conditions, the flood and lightning threat should remain limited. Seasonal temperatures are expected across the CWA, as the latest model guidance keeps suggesting seasonal 925 mb temperatures, with slightly warmer temperatures on Wednesday. Nevertheless, heat indexes should remain below thresholds, posing no heat threat. && .Long Term(Friday through next Monday)... Issued at 438 AM AST Tue Dec 2 2025 A mid- to upper-level ridge building from the west over the northeast Caribbean will likely displace a trough aloft eastward and away from the region by Friday, promoting a more stable atmosphere. This ridge aloft is expected to build and persist throughout the forecast period, supporting subsidence and dry air aloft, and reinforcing the trade-wind inversion. With this pattern in place, an advective trade-wind regime will prevail. As a result, there is a low (10-20%) to moderate (30-50%) chance of occasional passing showers across the windward areas of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands each day. Afternoon convection across the interior and western Puerto Rico also carries a low to moderate chance of developing daily, but current guidance does not indicate a flooding threat at this time. Overall, expect a mix of sunshine and clear skies with periods of passing clouds. Windward locations can anticipate occasional brief showers carried by the prevailing trades. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 235 PM AST Tue Dec 2 2025 VRB WX conds expcd across the CWA, with VCTS over JSJ, JPS, and IST this aftn. TEMPO conds are likely over JPS btwn 03/18-22z due -TSRA over the mountain ranges of PR, which may reduce CIGs/VIS and promote MVFR conds. VCSH are likely by 03/22-23z, with winds weakening and becoming VRB for most TAF sites. Easterly winds are expcd to return around 03/13-14z, btw 8 - 11 kt. && .MARINE... Issued at 235 PM AST Tue Dec 2 2025 A surface trough located just northeast of the islands will continue to promote light northeasterly winds across the regional waters this afternoon. As the trough progresses westward through tonight and into Wednesday, winds will gradually shift from the east southeast, briefly easing before increasing again later in the week. Afternoon thunderstorms remain possible over the coastal waters through midweek due to the proximity of the trough, with locally higher winds and seas near any storms. A weak easterly to northeasterly swell will persist across the local waters through Thursday, maintaining moderate seas, especially across the Atlantic waters and the Anegada Passage. Additionally, high pressure building over the central Atlantic will support the return of moderate to locally fresh east to northeast winds, leading to choppier conditions and an increase in short-period wind waves. Seas will generally range from moderate to locally rough at times across the offshore Atlantic zones, with more tranquil but still occasionally choppy conditions in the Caribbean passages. Mariners should remain aware of shifting winds as the trough moves west and prepare for deteriorating marine conditions toward the second half of the week. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 235 PM AST Tue Dec 2 2025 A moderate risk of rip currents will continue this afternoon along the north and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra, and across the U.S. Virgin Islands. A weak easterly to northeasterly swell, combined with locally increasing winds, could maintain hazardous surf conditions. Life-threatening rip currents remain possible and can quickly pull swimmers away from shore, mostly across northern and eastern exposed beaches through the period. Even where the risk is lower, rip currents may still form near groins, jetties, reefs, and piers. Beachgoers are strongly encouraged to swim near a lifeguard and stay alert to changing surf conditions. Passing showers and a few isolated thunderstorms may move over the waters and coastal areas through the afternoon and early evening. Brief downpours could reduce visibility and create choppy seas for small craft near the shore. For localized and updated risk levels, visit weather.gov/beach/sju.| && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MNG KEY MESSAGES/MARINE/BEACH FORECAST...CVB LONG TERM...CAM
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