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183
FXCA62 TJSJ 120700
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
300 AM AST Thu Feb 12 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 257 AM AST Thu Feb 12 2026

 * A more unsettled and variable weather pattern is expected with
   frequent passing isolated to moderate showers along eastern
   sections of the islands during most of the day, spreading
   across the area during the day. Given the expected conditions,
   there is a limited flood threat across eastern sections of
   Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques and the U.S. Virgin islands.

 * For the U.S. Virgin Islands, variable weather conditions will
   persist with cloudiness and showers affecting the islands.

 * There is a high risk of rip currents across the northern
   exposed coastal areas during the day, with dangerous breaking
   waves.

 * From today into Friday, a warming pattern is expected due to a
   southeasterly wind flow.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 257 AM AST Thu Feb 12 2026

A deteriorating weather pattern prevailed across the region
tonight with the arrival of an induced surface trough and moisture
with PWAT of 1.5 in, as shows the derived Satellite imagery.
Although the mainland and adjacent islands have mostly cloudy
skies and limited shower activity, the local waters, especially
the Caribbean waters, have experienced periods of continuous
moderate to heavy showers. Some brief showers were observed very
early in the morning across the San Juan metro area, with minimal
rainfall accumulation. Winds remained from the east veering more
into the southeast up to 8 knots. Overnight temperatures were very
pleasant, with the low to mid 70s across coastal and urban areas
and the low 60s across the mountain areas.

A broad surface high pressure over the Central Atlantic will
continue to promote a moderate east-to-southeasterly wind flow
across the islands. Under this pattern, moisture associated with
the previous frontal band will move across the region due to the
prevailing wind flow and the presence of a surface trough. This
pattern will support the development of cloudy skies during the
morning hours, with shower activity across southeastern and
southern Puerto Rico, as well as across Saint Croix in the U.S.
Virgin Islands. As the day progresses, upper and mid-level
divergence resulting in colder temperatures at 500 mb, in
combination with available surface moisture, will enhance periods
of moderate to locally strong showers focused across the
southeastern sections and portions of the western interior into
northwestern Puerto Rico. Although the forecast does not call for
widespread thunderstorm activity, one or two isolated
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out within the heaviest activity.
The rainfall threat today will remain limited, with minor flooding
possible in low-lying and urban areas, mainly across the eastern
sections. Similar conditions are forecast for Friday, with
southeasterly winds driven by the interaction between the surface
high pressure and the approach of a prefrontal boundary, which is
sinking north of the region. By Friday afternoon, most of the
surface moisture will have moved out of the area, allowing a much
drier airmass to dominate, with precipitable water values dropping
to around 1.2 inches. Therefore, although conditions may begin
slightly variable in the morning, reduced shower activity is
expected for most of the day. On Saturday, as the prefrontal
trough moves closer to the region, winds will back from the east-
southeast to more east-northeast. Additionally, given the
proximity of the prefrontal boundary, a weak pressure gradient is
expected, leading to variable winds across the islands. This
surface change will influence the direction and development of
showers. As a result, the forecast calls for widespread light to
moderate showers across the interior due to increased moisture.

Temperature-wise: Due to the change in the surface winds becoming
more from the southeast, a warming trend is expected, as suggest
the 925 MB temperatures with a considerable increase in Daytime
temperatures. As a result, maximum temperatures will range from
the upper 80s to the lower 90s across coastal and urban areas, and
from the low to mid 80s across the mountains.

&&

.Long Term(Sunday through Thursday)...
Issued at 257 AM AST Thu Feb 12 2026

As of right now, the wettest portion of the forecast period is
expected from Sunday into Monday, as another frontal boundary
approaches the forecast area from the northwest. This feature,
combined with a prevailing mid- to upper-level trough, will promote
enhanced moisture convergence and instability across the region.
Increasing precipitable water values and favorable upper-level
dynamics will support a higher coverage of showers, particularly
across northern and western Puerto Rico, with periods of locally
heavy rainfall possible. On Monday, winds will gradually veer to an
easterly direction as a surface high builds over the western
Atlantic and migrates toward the central Atlantic through the latter
part of the period.

By Tuesday, a mid- to upper-level ridge is forecast to establish
across the region, promoting a gradual stabilization of the
atmosphere. Latest precipitable water (PWAT) guidance supports this
trend, with values returning closer to the seasonal values for this
time of the year around 1.20 to 1.55 inches. Under this pattern,
trade-wind moisture will favor brief passing morning showers across
eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, followed by
afternoon convective development over interior and western Puerto
Rico.

Overall, the flooding threat should decrease after Monday as more
stable conditions take hold. Warm and humid conditions are expected
to persist through the remainder of the period. Residents are
encouraged to continue monitoring future forecasts, especially
regarding rainfall trends early in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 257 AM AST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR conditions will remain for all TAF sites during the period,
with some brief MVFR periods due to an increase in SHRA at 12/15Z
across TJSJ, TISX & TIST. Winds will remain VRB increasing at
12/15Z from the E-SE up to 15 knots with gusty winds near the
showers. RA to SHRA are expected to increase during the day
resulting in lower Cigs and a VIS reduction, especially across
the mountains.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 257 AM AST Thu Feb 12 2026

Offshore and nearshore buoy observations indicate that northerly
swell energy is gradually diminishing across the Atlantic waters
this evening. As a result, hazardous marine conditions will slowly
improve, with seas subsiding below advisory levels in some areas by
Thursday onwards. However, Small Craft Advisories will remain in
effect through at least early Thursday as residual swell and
moderate to locally fresh easterly winds continue to produce
hazardous conditions for small craft. Marine conditions are
expected to improve through the weekend as seas subside and winds
weaken. However, pulses of another northerly swell will reach the
Atlantic waters by Monday of next week, causing marine conditions
to once again become hazardous at times, particularly across the
offshore Atlantic waters.

Moderate to heavy showers will develop over the regional waters at
times as remnants of a frontal boundary continue to persist over the
region. This could result in localized hazardous seas near the
strongest showers.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 257 AM AST Thu Feb 12 2026

Offshore and nearshore buoy data show a gradual decrease in
northerly swell energy this evening. Despite the improving trend,
with breaking waves now between 7-9 ft across all the northern
exposed local beaches. Therefore, a high risk of rip currents
will remain in effect through Thursday, posing life- threatening
swimming conditions. Conditions will deteriorate again late in the
weekend into early next week as additional pulses of northerly
swell reach the Atlantic coast. For localized and updated rip
current information, visit weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ001-002-005-
     008-010-012.

     High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM AST early this morning for
     PRZ011-013.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for VIZ001.

     High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM AST early this morning for
     VIZ002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for AMZ711-712-
     716-741.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST early this morning for
     AMZ723-726-733-742-745.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM & AVIATION...71
LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...AFTERNOON CREW

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion