Your Number One Source for Real-Time Puerto Rico Weather & Hurricane Tracking Updates

460
FXCA62 TJSJ 271814
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
214 PM AST Tue Jan 27 2026

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 214 PM AST Tue Jan 27 2026

* Dangerous marine and coastal conditions continue through
  tonight. A northerly swell will maintain a High Rip Current
  Risk and Small Craft Advisory for Atlantic-exposed beaches and
  offshore waters.

* Hazardous Marine and Coastal conditions are likely to return
  this weekend as another long-period northerly swell arrives
  across the USVI and PR Atlantic Waters and Caribbean Passages.
  Scattered showers will affect the islands daily.

* The highest coverage is expected over western Puerto Rico each
  afternoon, leading to localized ponding on roads.

* Confidence is increasing for a more active weather pattern this
  weekend into early next week. Tropical moisture will bring a
  medium chance for locally heavy rainfall and isolated
  thunderstorms.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 214 PM AST Tue Jan 27 2026

A surface disturbance moved across the islands today, increasing
cloudiness and bringing moderate to locally heavy rainfall to
eastern Puerto Rico and the surrounding waters of the US Virgin
Islands. While the bulk of this weather activity remained over the
US Virgin Islands, several showers moved inland. Daytime
temperatures reached the mid-80s along the coast, with isolated
areas climbing into the upper 80s, particularly across eastern St.
Croix and southwestern Puerto Rico. Local winds prevailed from
the east at 10 to 15 mph, with higher gusts recorded near eastern
PR and the USVI.

This afternoon, residents of the US Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico can expect mostly calm conditions as a drier air mass
arrives. However, western Puerto Rico may see some shower activity
as a weak weather disturbance moves westward across that half of
the island.

Tonight, an easterly to northeasterly wind flow will continue to
bring in drier air. High pressure in the middle levels of the
atmosphere will further limit rainfall. However, we cannot rule
out occasional, fast-moving isolated showers affecting windward
areas of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands.

On Wednesday and Thursday, a high-pressure ridge will maintain a
generally stable atmosphere. However, patches of moisture drifting
into the region will trigger rounds of showers, particularly from
Wednesday morning through the afternoon and again late Thursday
night as another surface disturbance arrives.

Temperature Outlook While daily temperatures are expected to
remain near normal for this time of year, weather models indicate
a warming trend beginning Thursday and continuing through the end
of the week.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 444 AM AST Tue Jan 27 2026

The synoptic pattern will remain generally unchanged through the
long-term period, with a frontal boundary approaching the region
from the northwest. Southerly to southeasterly low-level flow ahead
of this boundary will continue, promoting above normal temperatures
across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Based on the latest global model guidance, Friday is expected to be
the relatively less active day of the period, as deeper moisture
remains south of the area. Conditions are forecast to become
progressively wetter over the weekend as southerly flow strengthens
and begins to pull tropical moisture over the region, earlier than
indicated in previous model cycles.

Precipitable water values are forecast to increase beginning
Saturday, rising from near 1.3 inches on Friday to near or above 2.0
inches by Saturday and Sunday, which is well above normal for this
time of year. This increase in moisture will support higher shower
coverage and rainfall intensity, particularly during the weekend and
into early next week.

At upper levels, the region will be positioned between an upper-
level trough to the northwest and a ridge to the southeast, with
favorable dynamics aloft depending on the exact placement and
evolution of the trough. Nevertheless, sufficient instability may
remain in the vicinity, and when combined with daytime heating,
local effects, and sea breeze convergence, isolated thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out, mainly during the afternoon hours across
interior and northwest/northern Puerto Rico. Locally heavy rainfall
will be possible with the strongest convection.

Potential impacts include ponding of water in urban and poorly
drained areas, as well as localized urban and small stream flooding,
particularly from Saturday through Monday. Gusty winds may also
accompany heavier showers and any isolated thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 214 PM AST Tue Jan 27 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail. VCSH or -SHRA are
more likely across TJBQ and VCSH over TJPS over the next few hours.
Some periods of reduced VIS and low cigs can be anticipated. During
the overnight period into the morning, passing showers are expected
across TISX. Aft28/15Z, VCSH are possible across TJPS and TJBQ
again. Winds from the E-SE at around 12-14 kts generally becoming
lighter after 27/23Z, then picking up again around 28/13-14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 214 PM AST Tue Jan 27 2026

A surface high-pressure will lead to a moderate to occasionally
strong easterly wind flow, resulting in choppy seas across the
regional waters. This high pressure will keep the frontal boundary
positioned to the west of the Northeast Caribbean, where it will
gradually dissipate by the end of the workweek. A northerly swell
will continue to affect the local Atlantic waters and Caribbean
passages through this evening, with additional swells expected on
Thursday. Another long-period northeasterly swell will arrive over
the weekend or early next week, further worsening local conditions.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 214 PM AST Tue Jan 27 2026

A pulse of northerly swell has been moving into the Atlantic waters
today. The San Juan buoy showed around 4 feet at 9 to 11 seconds
over the last hours. As a result, the High Risk of rip currents
continues through at least this evening for the north-facing beaches
of Puerto Rico. Elsewhere, a moderate risk remains in place.
Tonight, a moderate risk will generally dominate across most local
beaches, except across southern-exposed areas. A similar pattern
will likely continue the rest of the week, but continue to monitor
conditions for any update or adjustment as some additional energy
from a swell can approach the region around Thursday. Then,
hazardous coastal conditions are likely late this weekend into early
next week, as another stronger long-period northerly swell arrives.

Beachgoers are encouraged to exercise caution at all times. For
localized and updated rip current information, visit
weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001-002-
     005-008.

VI...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for AMZ711.

&&

$$

MORNING CREW...CAM/YZR
EVENING CREW...LIS/MRR

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion