Your Number One Source for Real-Time Puerto Rico Weather & Hurricane Tracking Updates

161
FXCA62 TJSJ 050910
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
510 AM AST Thu Mar 5 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 510 AM AST Thu Mar 5 2026

* Breezy to windy conditions will continue, particularly across
  coastal areas of the islands, unsecured and outdoor objects may
  blow around. These conditions will likely persist for the next
  several days.

* Fresh to strong ENE winds will result in choppy to rough seas
  across the offshore and nearshore Atlantic and Caribbean Waters,
  and the local passages. Small Craft Advisories are in effect
  for those areas. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating
  in hazardous conditions.

* A High Risk of Rip Currents is in effect for most northern
  beaches of Puerto Rico and for St. Croix through the weekend and
  into early next week. Up to a moderate risk of rip currents
  elsewhere.

* The ENE flow will continue to steer broad patches of moisture
  towards the region at times during the forecast period,
  increasing fast-moving shower frequency.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 510 AM AST Thu Mar 5 2026

Variable weather condtions prevailed for windward sectors of the
islands as breezy ENE steering flow steered rapid showers and
cloudiness towards the region. Satellite derived precipitable water
(PWAT) values indicate that the patch of moisture that affected the
region yesterday and during the early overnight hours is already
over the Mona Passage and moving away from the region. However,
another patch of moisture with PWAT values up to around 1.50 inches
is already over the eastern region. PWAT values over the region
indicate a range of around an inch over western PR to 1.44 in over
the USVI. Radar estimated accumulations since midnight indicate
around .10 to .20 inches over sectors of the northeastern quadrant
of Puerto Rico, as well as over Vieques. Isolated sectors of the
USVI, as well as sectors of southeastern, north-central and western
PR received minimal accumulations. Official and unofficial stations
over higher elevations of PR report minimum temperatures in the low
to mid 60s. Stations over lower elevations of southwestern,
southern, southeastern, and northwestern interior PR have reported
minimum temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s. Other stations over
lower elevations of the islands reported minimum temperatures in the
70s. Some stations have also reported reported max wind gusts
ranging from 19 to 27 mph since midnight.

No major changes regarding wind risks as model guidance continues to
remain consistent on breezy to windy conditions continuing towards
the end of the week. Breezy to windy conditions will remain the
dominant feature of the forecast. A broad surface high over the
western to central Atlantic will continue to promote breezy to windy
ENE flow as it tightens the local pressure gradient. This will
promote a limited to elevated wind risk over the islands, unsecured
items could blow around. This breezy flow will, however, maintain
925 mb temperatures at normal values during the period.

The above mentioned patch of moisture with PWAT values up to around
1.50 inches already over the eastern region, will continue to move
over the islands today with model guidance indicating up to 1.6
inches of PWAT over the area with western PR reaching around 1.80 in
during the afternoon. Although a jet over the region can provide
some ventilation, most available moisture will remain mainly below
850 mb and 500mb temperatures will remain relatively warm today and
tomorrow, limiting vertical shower development today. A limited
flooding risk will remain today over eastern PR and over western PR
as fast-moving trade wind showers continue to move over the region,
mainly over windward areas of the islands with the breezy to windy
flow pushing them further inland. Afternoon showers are also
forecast over western Puerto Rico. Patches of both more humid and
drier air will continue to be steered towards the islands under the
breezy to windy ENE flow along with low concentrations of saharan
dust. Model guidance suggests more broad patches of moist air moving
over the islands Friday night into Saturday, sustaining up to around
1.7 to 1.8 in of PWAT, above normal values. 500mb temperatures will
cool somewhat on Saturday and into the long term period as a trough
approaches from the west. Between these broad patches of moisture,
patches of drier and moist air will continue to arrive during the
period. These moist patches can enhance the frequency of fast-moving
showers over windward sectors of the islands, and then promote the
development of afternoon showers over W-SW Puerto Rico.

&&

.Long Term(Sunday through Thursday)...
Issued at 510 AM AST Thu Mar 5 2026

High pressure over the western Atlantic will remain the dominant
feature through midweek while gradually shifting northeast. This
pattern will maintain easterly to east-northeasterly winds across
the northeastern Caribbean, with breezy to windy conditions
prevailing for much of the period. Winds may weaken slightly around
midweek as the pressure gradient relaxes, though breezy conditions
are still expected. Aloft, a trough over the western Atlantic and
the Greater Antilles will linger nearby, with its axis initially
near eastern Cuba and slowly drifting toward western Hispaniola by
midweek. This feature will provide some upper-level ventilation over
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Despite this, dry air in
the mid-levels will continue to limit thunderstorm or deep
convective development. Moisture will remain near typical to
slightly above-normal levels for this time of year, before gradually
trending drier later in the period. Late in the period, an easterly
wind perturbation or weak surface trough may approach the area
Wednesday night.

Hazards during this period will be led by breezy to windy conditions
across land areas. Rainfall will remain a secondary concern, mainly
from frequent fast-moving trade wind showers affecting windward
areas overnight and during the morning hours. Limited afternoon
showers may develop across interior and western Puerto Rico. Periods
of moderate rainfall with passing showers could lead to brief
ponding of water in poor drainage areas, but the overall flooding
risk remains low.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 510 AM AST Thu Mar 5 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected to continue. Breezy to locally
windy ENE flow, mainly at 15 to 25 kts with higher gusts at 20 to
30 kts. Periods of fast moving trade wind VCSH/-SHRA will
continue to affect TJSJ/TISX/TIST/TJBQ, promoting brief MVFR
CIGs/VIS. Between 05/16 to 22z -SHRA/VCSH mainly over interior to
NW Puerto Rico can also affect TJBQ/TJPS. Winds decreasing after
05/23z to 5 to 15 kts with higher gusts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 510 AM AST Thu Mar 5 2026

Hazardous marine conditions will continue over the next several
days. A series of high pressure systems across the Atlantic will
promote fresh to locally strong east-northeasterly winds throughout
the forecast period. This will continue to result in choppy to rough
seas across most regional waters and local Caribbean passages,
hazardous for small craft operators. At this time, Small Craft
Advisories remain in effect through at least 6 PM AST Sunday, though
these may be extended as conditions will probably continue hazardous
next workweek as well. Inexperienced mariners, especially those
operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous
conditions.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 510 AM AST Thu Mar 5 2026

A high risk of life-threatening rip currents remains in effect today
for the northern and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico and St. Croix
due to breezy to windy coastal conditions combined with some energy
from a northeast wind swell. These hazardous conditions for
beachgoers are expected to persist through the rest of the week
and into early next week. For that reason, the Rip Current
Statement will likely need to be extended in time in the coming
days and probably additional areas will need to be added.
Beachgoers should heed the advice of lifeguards, as well as beach
patrol flags and posted signs.

For the remaining areas, a moderate risk will prevail, meaning that
life-threatening rip currents are still possible in the surf zone.
Beachgoers should continue to exercise caution. For additional
information and location-specific rip current details, please visit:
weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for PRZ001-002-
     005-008.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for VIZ002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST Sunday for AMZ711-712-716-
     723-726-733-741.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Friday for AMZ735.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES...MRR
LONG TERM...ICP
MARINE/BEACH FORECAST...YZR

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion