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500
FXCA62 TJSJ 031749
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
149 PM AST Tue Mar 3 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 138 PM AST Tue Mar 3 2026

* Breezy to windy conditions will persist across the islands
  through early next week. Unsecured items could blow around.

* Fresh to strong winds will continue to produce choppy to rough
  seas across the offshore and nearshore Atlantic and Caribbean
  Waters, and the local passages. Small Craft Advisories are in
  effect for those areas. Inexperienced mariners should avoid
  navigating in hazardous conditions.

* A moderate risk of rip currents will persist through late
  Wednesday night across most of the local beaches. A high rip
  current risk is forecast by early Thursday for the northern and
  eastern beaches of the islands due to the arrival of a northeast
  to easterly swell and breezy to windy conditions.

* Patches of moisture will continue to filter across the islands
  dragged by the trade winds, producing passing showers from time
  to time.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 138 PM AST Tue Mar 3 2026

Tranquil conditions prevailed this morning as a drier airmass moved
across the region. GOES-19 satellite imagery indicated a dry slot,
with precipitable water (PWAT) values below 1.0 inch overspreading
the area. As a result, several stations reported relative humidity
values below 55 percent, with King Airport in St. Thomas recording a
minimum of 43 percent as of 16Z. Breezy to windy conditions
accompanied the drier air, with wind gusts reaching the lower 30s
mph at times.

For the remainder of the afternoon, expect isolated to scattered
showers, mainly across interior and western Puerto Rico. Limited
moisture and relatively warm mid-level temperatures will keep shower
activity brief and localized.

Looking ahead, a surface high pressure over the western Atlantic
will maintain breezy to windy east to east-northeast flow through
Wednesday and Thursday. Moisture levels are forecast to gradually
increase, with PWAT values rising to around 1.5 to 1.7 inches by
midweek, near to slightly above climatological normals. Shower
activity will follow a typical seasonal pattern, with passing
showers affecting windward areas during the overnight and morning
hours, followed by isolated afternoon development over western
Puerto Rico.

Mid-level relative humidity values are forecast to fluctuate near
seasonal averages; however, periods of patchy moisture streaming
across the region will temporarily push values above normal. During
these surges, enhanced cloud development and showery weather can be
expected, particularly across windward coastal areas. Outside of
these moisture pulses, drier air aloft will help limit rainfall
coverage and duration.

Overall, expect variable cloudiness, passing showers, and continued
breezy conditions through Thursday, with no significant weather
impacts anticipated.

&&

.Long Term(Friday through next Monday)...
Issued at 138 PM AST Tue Mar 3 2026

A broad and strong surface high pressure system over the western
Atlantic will remain the dominant feature through the weekend into
early next week, maintaining a tight local pressure gradient before
gradually shifting northeast. This pattern will support persistent
easterly winds with minor directional variations, ranging from
strong breeze to moderate gale at times based on Beaufort scale
equivalents. Aloft, a segment of the subtropical jet will extend
across the northeastern Caribbean early in the period, followed by a
short-wave trough approaching from the northeast. The trough is
expected to linger west of the area near Hispaniola, promoting
gradual cooling aloft and increasingly favorable upper-level
conditions into early next week. Moisture will remain somewhat
fragmented on Friday but will consolidate Friday night into the
weekend, with above-normal precipitable water lingering through
Monday before drier air filters in by Tuesday.

From a hazards perspective, breezy to windy conditions will remain
the primary concern, particularly across coastal and exposed areas,
contributing to hazardous marine and beach conditions. Although
periods of above-normal low-level moisture may increase the
frequency of passing showers, persistent mid-level dryness should
limit vertical development and rainfall efficiency. As a result,
showers are expected to be mostly fast-moving, with brief moderate
rainfall possible across windward areas during the overnight and
morning hours and isolated afternoon activity over interior and
western Puerto Rico. Widespread flooding is not anticipated;
however, localized ponding in poor drainage areas cannot be ruled
out. A gradual drying trend by Tuesday should further reduce shower
coverage, while breezy conditions and hazardous seas may persist.
Overall, wind and marine hazards will remain the dominant impacts
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 138 PM AST Tue Mar 3 2026

Mainly VFR conds expected thru the period. E to ENE sfc winds 1525
kt with gusts 2530 kt will continue to impact all terminals,
producing areas of turb blo FL080, especially leeward of terrain.
VCSH will affect TJSJ/TJBQ/TJPS at times thru 04/06Z. Aft 04/06Z,
increasing SHRA activity may result in brief MVFR CIGs/VIS, mainly
at TIST, TISX, and TJSJ. CIGs could lower to SCT/BKN025-035 with
reduced VIS in heavier SHRA. Winds diminish slightly overnight to 10-
12 kt with higher gusts, remaining ENE.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 138 PM AST Tue Mar 3 2026

A surface high-pressure system over the central Atlantic, along with
another building over the north western Atlantic, will promote fresh
to locally strong east to northeasterly winds throughout the
forecast period. These conditions will maintain choppy to rough seas.
Small Craft Advisories are in effect for most of the regional waters
and local passages. Small craft operators should exercise caution
elsewhere and continue to monitor the forecast for any update or
adjustments.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 138 PM AST Tue Mar 3 2026

A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents will persist today
for most local beaches due to breezy to windy coastal conditions.
From Wednesday onward, beach conditions are expected to
deteriorate further, increasing the likelihood of life-threatening
rip currents. Confused seas driven by strong trade winds,
combined with the arrival of a northeast to easterly wind swell,
will likely elevate the risk to high for the northern and eastern
beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. For
additional information and location- specific rip current details,
please visit: weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 138 PM AST Tue Mar 3 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions have been occurring since late this
morning across portions of southern Puerto Rico and are expected to
persist for a prolonged period through the remainder of today,
compared to the more brief episodes observed in previous days.
Relative humidity values have dropped to around 50-52 percent, while
the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) at Cabo Rojo is 652,
indicating critically dry fuels highly receptive to ignition and
rapid fire spread. Sustained winds have exceeded 15 mph, with peak
sustained winds over 20 mph and gusts between 30 and 35 mph, and no
rainfall is expected. Some locations may observe critical fire
danger conditions at times. These breezy to locally windy conditions
combined with very dry fuels will support rapid fire growth if a
fire starts, and outdoor burning is strongly discouraged.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Friday for AMZ711-716-723-
     726-733-741.

     Small Craft Advisory from noon Wednesday to 6 AM AST Friday for
     AMZ712.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CVB
LONG TERM....ICP
AVIATION...CVB
PUBLIC...GRS

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion