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375
FXCA62 TJSJ 281747
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
147 PM AST Sat Feb 28 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 143 PM AST Sat Feb 28 2026

 * Windy conditions are forecast for the rest of the weekend into
   the upcoming workweek.

 * Hazardous marine conditions with seas up to 7 feet; therefore,
   small craft operators should exercise caution.

 * Above-normal temperatures will continue across Puerto Rico and
   the U.S. Virgin Islands over the next several days.

 * There is a moderate risk of rip currents across all exposed
   beaches in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Monday)...
Issued at 143 PM AST Sat Feb 28 2026

Mostly fair weather conditions prevailed across the islands today
under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Fast-moving showers
passed across portions of eastern and southeastern Puerto Rico
during the morning; however, Doppler radar estimated minimal
accumulations. Winds gradually increased throughout the morning to
between 15 and 22 mph, with stronger gusts reaching 31 mph at the
Henry E. Rohlsen International Airport in St. Croix. Additionally,
CARICOOS buoys located over the Anegada Passage, south of St. John,
and north of Vieques reported maximum wind gusts of up to 34 mph. It
was a warm day, with maximum temperatures ranging from the mid to
upper 80s across lower elevations and from the upper 70s to low 80s
across higher terrain.

The short-term forecast remains on track as the Azores High
continues to dominate the local weather pattern for the next several
days. As this high strengthens over the central Atlantic, it will
promote breezy to locally windy conditions with east-southeast to
southeast winds through at least late Monday, after which winds are
expected to shift from the east. Over the next few days, a mid-to-
upper level ridge will maintain stable and dry conditions aloft.

Under this pattern, trade winds will drag pockets of moisture across
the area, bringing occasional fast-moving showers, particularly
during the morning hours. Afternoon showers are also expected each
day due to the combination of daytime heating and local effects
across portions of the interior and the northwestern quadrant of
Puerto Rico. A few showers cannot be ruled out across the San Juan
metro area due to the development of the "El Yunque" streamer.
Temperatures at the 925 mb level will remain near to above normal
over the next few days, resulting in warmer-than-average
temperatures across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands
throughout the week.

&&

.Long Term(Tuesday through next Friday)...
Issued at 143 PM AST Sat Feb 28 2026

At the beginning of the long-term period, a broad surface high-
pressure system will be positioned over the northeastern Atlantic,
while another builds across the western Atlantic. This pattern will
promote mainly easterly winds on Tuesday, shifting to predominantly
northeasterly winds for the remainder of the period. As the pressure
gradient tightens across our region, breezy to windy conditions are
likely from Tuesday onward. As a result, winds will be one of the
primary weather concerns. The wind risk will fluctuate from limited
to elevated, particularly along coastal areas of the islands.
Residents should secure loose outdoor objects, as items may be blown
around or damaged.

The latest model guidance suggests that moisture content will remain
variable, oscillating between near-seasonal levels and slightly
above normal as patches of moisture move within the trade wind flow.
Precipitable water values are expected to range between 1.20 and
1.60 inches. This pattern will support frequent passing showers,
particularly during the overnight and morning hours across windward
sectors, followed by afternoon convection each day over interior and
western Puerto Rico. Fast-moving showers driven by strong winds
should reduce rainfall accumulation and therefore limit the flood
potential.

Around midweek, upper-level dynamics will become more favorable,
with improved ventilation and cooler temperatures aloft (around -9
degrees C). These conditions could support a few isolated
thunderstorms across western Puerto Rico during the afternoon, if
convection develops. Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, mostly sunny to
partly cloudy skies will prevail, with passing showers mainly during
the nighttime and early morning hours. Winds will also remain a
primary hazard throughout the long-term period across the islands.

The 925 mb temperature outlook indicates above-normal values at the
beginning of the period, followed by a decrease to near-average
levels for the remainder of the forecast. Daytime maximum
temperatures are expected to range from the low to mid-80s across
lower elevations of the islands and from the mid-70s across higher
elevations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 143 PM AST Sat Feb 28 2026

VFR conditions will prevail today across all TAF sites. Fast moving
passing SHRA/-SHRA will continue to move across the islands,
resulting in VCSH at TJSJ/TJBQ/TJPS between 28/18-23z. ESE winds at
15-20 kt with higher gusts and sea breeze variations thru 28/23z,
and gradually diminishing overnight at 5-10 kt thru 01/13z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 143 PM AST Sat Feb 28 2026

A broad surface high pressure system dominating the Atlantic basin
and the Caribbean will result in moderate to locally fresh east-
southeast winds for the rest of today. These winds will generate
choppy seas up to 7 feet across the offshore waters, and a Small
Craft Advisory remains in effect until Sunday morning. Windy
conditions will persist through the remainder of the week as
another broad surface high builds over the western to central
Atlantic early next workweek, sustaining fresh to strong winds
across the region. Expect east-southeast winds to gradually back
to the east-northeast by midweek. Overall, these conditions will
maintain choppy to rough seas across the regional waters through
the weekend and into early next week, especially across the
Atlantic and Caribbean offshore waters and the local passages.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 143 PM AST Sat Feb 28 2026

Windy conditions are forecast to persist through the rest of the
weekend as a broad surface high pressure system remains anchored
across the Central Atlantic and extends into the Caribbean. This
pattern will continue to promote breezy to locally windy
conditions, resulting in choppy seas and an elevated risk of rip
currents. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected across the
north and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, including Culebra
and Vieques, as well as across the U.S. Virgin Islands. While not
all beaches will experience hazardous conditions, life-threatening
rip currents remain possible, particularly near piers, jetties,
and reef channels. Similar marine and coastal conditions are
forecast to continue from Sunday into the upcoming workweek as the
pressure gradient remains tight. Beachgoers should exercise
caution, especially along exposed beaches where breaking waves
will be rough and persistent. Looking ahead, another northerly
swell is likely to arrive by midweek next week, which could
further deteriorate coastal conditions and potentially increase
the risk of dangerous rip currents once again, particularly along
northern-facing shores.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM AST Sunday for AMZ711-723.

     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 5 PM AST Sunday
     for AMZ733.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 5 PM AST Sunday for AMZ741.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM & AVIATION...GRS
LONG TERM....MIDNIGHT CREW
MARINE & BEACH FORECAST...LIS

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion