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440
FXCA62 TJSJ 151745
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
145 PM AST Sun Mar 15 2026

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 145 PM AST Sun Mar 15 2026

* Breezy to windy conditions will persist through midweek across
  Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands as strong high pressure
  over the western Atlantic tightens the local pressure gradient.

* Hazardous marine and coastal conditions will continue through
  much of the week. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for
  most local waters, and a High Risk of Rip Currents is expected
  for many northern and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico and the
  U.S. Virgin Islands.

* Afternoon showers across parts of the interior and western
  Puerto Rico could lead to ponding on roadways and minor flooding
  in poorly drained areas.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 145 PM AST Sun Mar 15 2026

This morning, we had variable conditions from mostly sunny skies
across the PR`s western half to partly and mostly cloudy skies
across portions of the eastern half of PR, and the US Virgin
Islands. Additionally, an easterly perturbation slowly increases
the frequency and intensity of showers across the region, first
over the regional waters, then across the US Virgin Islands, and
then moving further inland across PR`s eastern half. By the
afternoon, showers developed across the mountainous interior and
western Puerto Rico. Winds were mainly from the east to northeast
at 15 to 30 mph, with gusts between 25 and 40 mph. Maximum
temperatures ranged from the mid- to upper 80s along the coast to
the lower 80s across the mountains.

For this afternoon, showers will develop across the interior and
western Puerto Rico, where ponding of water in poorly drained
areas is possible. Whilst the winds will continue to bring
occasional showers across the windward locations, meaning the USVI
and eastern northeast PR. By this evening, moisture will drop,
limiting shower activity, though some showers will arrive
occasionally across these windward locations.

A mid-level high pressure will hold across the local Caribbean
Region, promoting somewhat stable conditions over PR and the USVI.
At the surface, a strong high pressure system will spread from
the western to the central Atlantic, tightening the local pressure
gradient and generating breezy to windy conditions across Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands over the short term.

Under the aforementioned weather pattern, the primary hazards
during this period will be wind-related conditions, resulting in
breezy to windy conditions, particularly across the U.S. Virgin
Islands and the coastal areas of Puerto Rico. Also, easterlies
perturbations will arrive each day, occasionally promoting showery
weather, mainly across the windward areas of Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands. However, we expect periods without rain,
under pleasant tropical conditions.

&&

.Long Term(Wednesday through next Saturday)...
Issued at 145 PM AST Sun Mar 15 2026

A broad surface high pressure system over the central Atlantic
will dominate the regional pattern early in the period. This will
maintain easterly trade winds on Wednesday, gradually veering to
east-southeasterly and south-southeasterly by Saturday as the
pressure gradient relaxes with a frontal boundary approaching from
the northwest. A mid-level ridge will persist through Friday
before being displaced southeastward by a broad trough dipping
into the northern Caribbean late in the period. Moisture will
remain mostly shallow through midweek, generally below 700 mb,
briefly extending near 650 mb Thursday afternoon into the night
before gradually deepening toward the weekend. As a result,
conditions will transition from relatively drier-than-normal on
Wednesday to more variable moisture Thursday and Friday, with a
gradual increase in shower activity by Saturday. Temperatures will
remain within typical seasonal ranges, with slightly warmer
afternoons locally and a gradual warming trend into the weekend
likely responding to the increasing southerly wind component.

Hazards through most of the period will be mainly wind-driven.
Breezy to occasionally windy conditions early in the period may
create an elevated wind risk across exposed and coastal areas and
will promote fast-moving trade wind showers across windward
sectors, particularly overnight and during the morning hours.
These showers may occasionally produce brief downpours but will
generally move quickly across the area. As winds weaken and
moisture deepens toward the weekend, hazards may gradually shift
toward a slightly higher risk of locally heavier showers, which
could increase the potential for excessive rainfall and localized
ponding in urban and poorly drained areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 145 PM AST Sun Mar 15 2026

VFR conditions will persist across all TAF sites during the period.
E winds up to 25 knots with gusty winds up to 32 knots will persists
at until 15/23Z, when gusty winds become less, increasing again at
16/14ZZ. VCSH to -RA will persist for the rest of the day across
TJPS, TJSJ & TJBQ until 16/00Z. Brief periods of lower VIS and short-
lower ceilings are expected until 16/00Z, with the actual shower
activity.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 145 PM AST Sun Mar 15 2026

A strong high-pressure system will move eastward from the western
to the central Atlantic, tightening the local pressure gradient.
This will lead to fresh to strong easterly winds. As a result,
mariners can expect choppy to rough seas across the regional
waters for much of the week. Additionally, there will be
occasional periods of moderate to heavy rain showers embedded
within the wind flow.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 145 PM AST Sun Mar 15 2026

Beach conditions will remain somewhat dangerous for inexperienced
beachgoers, as strengthening easterly winds will generate choppy
to rough seas across regional waters, increasing wave action along
exposed beaches. As a result, the risk of life- threatening rip
currents will range from moderate to high along many exposed
beaches of the islands.

Beachgoers should remain alert to changing coastal conditions and
continue monitoring the latest forecasts and statements. For
additional information, please visit: weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for PRZ001>003-
     005-008-012-013.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for VIZ001-002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM AST Wednesday for AMZ711-723.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Monday to 2 AM AST Wednesday for
     AMZ712-735.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM AST
     Wednesday for AMZ716-726-733-741.

&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES/SHORT TERM/MARINE/BEACH FORECAST...CAM
LONG TERM....ICP
AVIATION...LIS

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion