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639
FXCA62 TJSJ 261908
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
308 PM AST Thu Feb 26 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 254 PM AST Thu Feb 26 2026

* Hazardous marine and beach conditions continue along the Atlantic
  coastlines of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin  Islands. Life-
  threatening rip currents and dangerous breaking waves are expected
  from Rincon to Fajardo, including Culebra, St. Thomas, and St.
  John.

* Breezy to locally windy conditions will continue over coastal
  areas for the next few days, unsecured objects may blow around.

* Friday appears to be the wettest day of the short term, with
  warmer temperatures and a slightly higher chance of afternoon
  thunderstorms. Widespread flooding is not expected, but
  localized impacts remain possible.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 254 PM AST Thu Feb 26 2026

A surface high over the western to central Atlantic promoted breezy
easterly steering flow, gradually veering to become ESE, which in
turn steered showers over the local waters and mainly over windward
sectors of the islands. Official and unofficial stations report
temperatures in the low to mid 80s at lower elevations of the
islands and in the low to mid 70s at higher elevations of Puerto
Rico. Current satellite derived precipitable water (PWAT) values
indicate up to 1.50 inches, at normal to slightly above normal
values for this time of the year. The 12Z sounding detected 1.24
inches of PWAT. Areas with noticeably lower PWAT values include SW
PR, with around an inch of PWAT, below normal values.

Afternoon showers are developing over interior to WNW PR under
the veering steering flow. As the surface high moves eastward a
breezy east- southeast steering flow is forecast to persist during
the period bringing alternating patches of drier and more humid
air and resulting in afternoon and morning showers mainly over
windward sectors with afternoon showers over mainly interior to
WNW PR, as well as downwind of El Yunque and the local islands.
Although brief periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall are
possible, the fast moving showers will serve limit the potential
for widespread flooding. This ESE steering flow will also support
a warming trend, 925 mb temperatures are forecast to reach above
normal values each afternoon Friday and during the weekend. As a
patch of moisture reaches the area tomorrow, Friday, it will
result in PWAT values around 1.50 inches and promoting and
increase in shower frequency (a few t-storms cannot be ruled out).
Friday continues as the wettest day of the short-term as by
Saturday a patch of drier air reaches the area. Low concentrations
of Saharan Dust particulates will continue reaching the area
through the short term period.

&&

.Long Term(Sunday through next Wednesday)...
Issued at 237 AM AST Thu Feb 26 2026

A broad surface high over the north-central Atlantic will continue
to dominate the regional pattern through midweek, maintaining a
tight pressure gradient and breezy to windy low-level flow across
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Winds will remain from
the east-southeast to southeast on Sunday, gradually backing to
easterly Monday night into Tuesday as the high shifts eastward. By
Wednesday, an additional high building into the western Atlantic
will reinforce the gradient and promote east to east- northeast
winds across the region. This evolving wind pattern will govern
moisture transport and shower distribution. Sunday will remain
relatively stable with lingering drier air and a weak trade wind
cap limiting convection; however, moisture will increase beginning
Sunday night and persist through midweek, with embedded patches
of deeper moisture moving within the trade wind flow.

Breezy to windy conditions will persist each day, with gusty periods
possible in exposed and elevated areas. Frequent passing showers
will continue daily as strong trade winds push moisture inland, with
coverage increasing Monday and Tuesday as deeper moisture moves
across the region. As winds shift from east-southeast to easterly
and eventually east-northeasterly, shower activity will adjust,
favoring eastern and southeastern areas at first, then northeastern
areas later in the period, while afternoon showers develop over
interior and western Puerto Rico. Significant rainfall may
accumulate where showers repeatedly move over the same areas, and
isolated heavier afternoon downpours could lead to minor urban and
small stream flooding, particularly Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures
will remain near seasonal normals. Overall, the primary hazards
through midweek will be persistent breezy to windy conditions each
day and an limited flooding risk early in the week.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 254 PM AST Thu Feb 26 2026

Mainly VFR conds will persist across TAF sites. -SHRA/VCSH over
affecting the terminals with a chance of TS mainly near TJBQ.
VCSH will continue under ESE flow up to 15 to 20 kts with higher
gusts, with higher gusts. Winds weakening by 26/23Z, to 5 to 10
kts, increasing again by 27/13 between 14 to 20 kts with higher
gusts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 254 PM AST Thu Feb 26 2026

The long-period north-northwesterly swell will continue to spread
across the Atlantic waters and passages through Friday,
maintaining seas between 6 and 10 feet. These seas are expected to
gradually subside tonight into tomorrow, Saturday. However,
hazardous conditions may persist as a surface high pressure
extending from the Central to Western Atlantic will tighten the
local pressure gradient, promoting moderate to locally fresh east
to east-southeast winds. Choppy to rough seas will likely continue
across the regional waters through early next week, and Small
Craft Advisories may be extended.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 254 PM AST Thu Feb 26 2026

No changes were introduced to the beach forecast. NDBC buoy 41043
has been reporting a gradual decrease in significant wave height, a
sign that the swell is gradually diminishing. On the other hand, the
San Juan and Rincon buoys show significant wave heights fluctuating
between 6 and 7 feet and periods around 12 seconds, meaning that
breaking waves between up to 12 feet can be expected along the surf
zone. Hence, the High Surf Advisory remains in effect for the
northern exposed beaches (from Rincon to Fajardo), including
Culebra, and St. Thomas and St. John in the U.S. Virgin Islands
through 6 AM AST Friday, while the High Risk of Rip Currents will
continue through at least Friday afternoon. By this weekend, the
risk should remain moderate for most beaches across the islands due
to strengthening winds, but beachgoers should remain cautious as
life-threatening rip currents can be present in the surf zone. The
risk of rip current may increase mid next week.

For safety, always check local conditions before swimming.
Beachgoers and inexperienced surfers are urged to avoid beaches
exposed to the northerly swell. Remember to swim near a lifeguard,
never swim alone, and, if caught in a rip current, remain calm, do
not exhaust yourself, and stay afloat while waiting for help.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for PRZ001-002-
     005-008-010>013.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Friday for PRZ001-002-005-008-
     010-012.

     Red Flag Warning until 5 PM AST this afternoon for PRZ027.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for VIZ001-002.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Friday for VIZ001.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight AST Friday night for AMZ711-
     723.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST Friday for AMZ712-716-726-
     733-741.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon AST Friday for AMZ742-745.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MRR
LONG TERM...ICP
MARINE/BEACH...MNG

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion