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FXCA62 TJSJ 301720
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
120 PM AST Sun Aug 30 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 120 PM AST Sun Aug 30 2026

- An unsettled, wetter, and windier pattern will continue tonight
  into Monday as a strong tropical wave, the remnants of Dolly,
  moves across the region.

- Urban and poor-drainage flooding and lightning will be the
  primary hazards, with gusty winds possible near stronger showers
  and thunderstorms. Isolated flash flooding cannot be ruled out.

- Hazardous marine and coastal conditions will continue as winds
  and seas build. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through
  midday Monday, while a Rip Current Statement remains in effect
  through Monday afternoon.

- Lingering moisture will support additional showers and isolated
  thunderstorms into Tuesday, although activity should become more
  seasonal after the widespread activity diminishes tonight.

- Heat risks are expected to return Tuesday and remain the
  primary concern through much of the workweek.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 120 PM AST Sun Aug 30 2026

The tropical wave, the remnants of Dolly, has brought a marked
increase in moisture and unsettled weather across the local area
during the past 8 to 12 hours. Radar estimates indicate around 1.5
inches of rainfall across St. Croix, 2 to 3 inches around El Yunque,
and 1 to 2 inches across the La Plata and Carraizo basins.
Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected through tonight,
with the greatest concern being repeated rainfall over already
saturated or urban and poor-drainage areas.

Deep tropical moisture will linger through the short-term forecast
period. While the more widespread rainfall associated with the
tropical wave should gradually diminish tonight, enhanced seasonal
shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to continue through
Tuesday. Flooding and lightning will remain the primary hazards,
especially during periods of heavier rainfall and across areas that
receive repeated showers. Brief gusty winds are also possible near
stronger thunderstorms. Rainfall will provide some relief from
ongoing drought conditions, but it is not expected to fully resolve
the drought. By Tuesday, increasing sunshine, southeast winds, and
warmer temperatures may allow heat-related impacts to return.

&&

.Long Term(Wednesday through next Saturday)...
Issued at 120 PM AST Sun Aug 30 2026

A surface high pressure system over the western Atlantic will maintain
south to southeasterly winds across the region on Wednesday. Lingering
moisture from the tropical wave will support passing morning showers
across eastern Puerto Rico, followed by localized afternoon showers
and thunderstorms across the interior and western sections. Hot and
humid conditions are expected, particularly across coastal and urban
areas, where heat indices could range from 100 to 111 degrees.

By Thursday, the strengthening surface high will promote a more
easterly wind flow. Moisture is expected to remain near seasonal
levels, while a building mid-level ridge should limit widespread deep
convection. This pattern will favor mainly localized shower activity,
with the best potential during the afternoon across interior and
western Puerto Rico. A drier air mass is then expected to filter
across the region Friday, further limiting shower coverage while
maintaining hot conditions.

Late Thursday through the weekend, an upper-level trough moving
southward over the western Atlantic and an approaching tropical wave
may promote a more unsettled pattern. Global guidance generally
supports increasing shower and thunderstorm potential; however,
uncertainty remains regarding the timing, duration, and amount of
available moisture. The ECMWF depicts a shorter-lived wet period,
while the GFS maintains deeper moisture into Sunday. Residents should
continue monitoring forecast updates, as a wetter and more unstable
pattern may develop late in the week and through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 PM AST Sun Aug 30 2026

A strong tropical wave, the remnants of Dolly, will cont moving
across the local area thru the 18Z TAF pd. SHRA/TSRA will remain psbl
at all terminals, with tempo MVFR/IFR conds, vsby reductions, mtn
obscrns, and BKN/OVC cigs btw FL020-FL040 psbl nr stronger activity.
Activity shld gradually decr aft 31/12Z, although SHRA/isold TSRA
will remain psbl. SFC wnds will prevail fm ENE at 15-20 kt early,
shifting to ESE later today as the wave axis moves across the area.
Higher gusts are psbl nr SHRA/TSRA. Wnds will diminish overnight and
become more variable.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 120 PM AST Sun Aug 30 2026

The tropical wave, the remnants of Dolly, will continue moving across
the region through late tonight. Showers and thunderstorms may produce
squally conditions, frequent lightning, and locally strong wind gusts
across the waters. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through
midday Monday for portions of the offshore Atlantic and Caribbean
waters, the Anegada Passage, eastern Puerto Rico waters, and the U.S.
Virgin Islands waters. Moderate trade winds are expected to return by
midweek.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 120 PM AST Sun Aug 30 2026

A High Risk of Rip Currents is in effect through Monday afternoon
for the northern, eastern, and southeastern beaches of Puerto Rico,
including Vieques and Culebra, as well as the U.S. Virgin Islands.
The tropical wave, the remnants of Dolly, will maintain hazardous
surf and life-threatening rip currents along exposed beaches. The
risk is expected to decrease to moderate Monday night and remain
moderate through most of the workweek. Thunderstorms may also produce
lightning and gusty winds near the coast and surrounding waters.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for PRZ001>003-
     005-008-012-013.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for VIZ001-002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until noon AST Monday for AMZ711.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM AST Monday
     for AMZ712-733.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Monday for AMZ716-723-726.

&&

$$

MID...YZR
EVE...ICP/MRR

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion