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870
FXCA62 TJSJ 261804
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
204 PM AST Thu Mar 26 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 153 PM AST Thu Mar 26 2026

* Unsettled weather will continue through the weekend, bringing
  periods of showers and a few thunderstorms, especially during
  the afternoon.

* With the expected activity, urban and small stream flooding,
  along with quick rises in rivers and streams are likely.

* For the U.S. Virgin Islands, periods of showers and isolated
  thunderstorms may lead to ponding of water and on roads and in
  low-lying areas through Saturday.

* Marine and coastal conditions will deteriorate from Monday
  onward as a northerly swell arrives, likely resulting in Small
  Craft Advisories and Rip Current Statements. In addition,
  hazardous breaking waves and dangerous surf conditions are
  expected, and high Surf Advisories cannot be ruled out.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 153 PM AST Thu Mar 26 2026

Unsettled weather conditions have prevailed today across Puerto Rico
and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Moderate to heavy showers started to
develop around noon, from Trujillo Alto to Catano. Doppler radar
estimated rainfall accumulations up to 3 inches across these areas,
with the highest accumulations over San Juan. Flood Advisories
and a Flash Flood Warning were issued for those areas. Later in
the afternoon, the rainfall activity increased in coverage along
the central mountain range toward the north central and and
northwestern Puerto Rico. This activity produced heavy showers and
strong winds, particularly over Arecibo , Hatillo, Camuy and
northern Lares. Special Weather Statements were issued for those
areas.

For the rest of the day, moderate to heavy showers will continue to
develop along the northern, northwestern and eastern coast of Puerto
Rico enhancing the risk of flooding across the area. Additional
hazards may include small hail with the strongest activity, urban
and small-stream flooding, ponding of water in areas with poor
drainage, landslides, frequent lightning and rapid river rises.
Residents and visitors are encouraged to monitor weather conditions
closely and avoid flooded roads during the evening commute.

Unsettled weather is expected to persist across Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands for the rest of the period, as a deep layer
trough near Cuba continues migrate eastward and deepen the
region. north of the region. The latest model guidance continues
to suggest the transition of this feature into a over 100+ knot
subtropical jet over the islands. This pattern, enhanced by
daytime heating and local effects, will increase upper-level
divergence, supporting a more active convective pattern across the
islands through late Friday. A gradual transition into a more
drier and stable pattern is expected by Saturday as a drier
airmass begin to filter into the area. Despite of the expected
weather pattern, rainfall activity is still expected during the
afternoon due sufficient available moisture, daytime heating and
local effects could support the development of few showers over
the area.

&&

.Long Term(Sunday through next Wednesday)...
Issued at 409 AM AST Thu Mar 26 2026

A persistent subtropical jet stream will remain over the region
while a series of short-wave troughs pass just north of the area,
providing periods of favorable upper-level support for ascent. At
the surface, a strengthening high pressure system over the western
Atlantic will promote prevailing northeast winds. Winds will start
moderate to fresh on Sunday, then quickly increase to fresh to
strong through midweek, becoming more easterly by late Wednesday
night. Sunday will be relatively drier as a mid-level ridge promotes
subsidence and drier air entrainment, limiting vertical development.
From Monday onward, the ridge weakens, allowing deeper moisture to
spread across the region and resulting in a wetter and more unstable
pattern. Stronger winds will favor frequent passing trade wind
showers throughout the day, with additional convection and possible
afternoon thunderstorms depending on local conditions and available
heating.

Hazard risks are expected to increase through the period, although
some uncertainty remains regarding the exact magnitude and timing of
impacts. Wind impacts will begin on Sunday and become elevated by
midweek, resulting in breezy to windy conditions that may affect
outdoor activities and travel. Although conditions on Sunday will be
relatively drier, localized flooding impacts remain possible.
Flooding risk is expected to increase from Monday onward, supporting
elevated to locally significant impacts, including urban and small-
stream flooding and a limited risk of flash flooding. Thunderstorm
chances will also increase through the period, with lightning and
erratic wind behavior posing additional hazards. Overall, conditions
are expected to transition from relatively low hazard levels on
Sunday to a more active pattern by midweek, with wind, rainfall, and
lightning risks all trending upward.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 153 PM AST Thu Mar 26 2026

Mainly VFR conds will prevail across all terminals, however,
brief MVFR/IFR impacts are possible due to reduced VIS/CIGs in
SHRA/TSRA through 26/23Z at TJSJ & TJBQ. VCSH will continue to to
affect the USVI terminals, with VCTS/TSRA possible at TJPS thru
26/22-23Z. Surface winds will persist from the ESE-SE at 1015 kt
with gusts up to 25 kt near the heaviest activity. Winds will
decrease below 10 kt aft 26/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 153 PM AST Thu Mar 26 2026

A surface high pressure will develop over the north central Atlantic
during the next few days, and settle over the Azores late in the
weekend. Meanwhile, a series of weak surface troughs are expected to
linger over the northeastern Caribbean through the end of the week,
before another front approaches the  region early next week. This
weather pattern will promote mostly light to moderate east to
southeast trades through early tomorrow, before turning more east to
northeast for the rest of the period. Stronger winds are expected
with the approaching front, becoming moderate to locally fresh. Seas
will remain between 3 and 5 feet through the weekend.

Marine conditions will gradually deteriorate by Monday, as a large
swell is forecast to build seas up to 10 feet and spread across the
local Atlantic waters and passages for most of the workweek.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 153 PM AST Thu Mar 26 2026

A low to moderate risk of rip currents continues across the beaches
of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, expected to persist this
weekend. Although there isn`t a high risk, beachgoers must exercise
caution, as life-threatening rip currents are still possible along
beaches under a moderate risk. The beach forecast remains on track
for the first part of the week. A large swell is expected to arrive
and spread across the local Atlantic waters and Caribbean passages
by Monday night into early Tuesday. From the latest model guidance,
seas up to 10 feet and periods between 11 and 12 seconds are likely
to produce large breaking waves along north-facing beaches of Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. These breaking waves could result
in life-threatening rip currents and high surf conditions, while
coastal flood conditions cannot be ruled out. Residents and visitors
are encouraged to continue to stay informed and updated with the
latest beach forecast.

Besides rip currents, beachgoers are encouraged to stay weather
alert for the rest of the afternoon and tomorrow Friday due to
showers and isolated thunderstorms moving over coastal areas of
northwestern Puerto Rico likely to produce lightning.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRS
LONG TERM...ICP
MARINE & BEACH FORECAST...MNG

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion