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114
FXCA62 TJSJ 281825
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
225 PM AST Wed Oct 28 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 207 PM AST Wed Oct 28 2026

* Showers and thunderstorms will continue to affect the north
  central to north western municipalities of Puerto Rico.
  Additional rounds of showers could affect the southern portions
  of the islands.

* Expect showers to affect the US Virgin Islands at times through
  tomorrow morning.

* Exceptionally high tides will continue for the next couple of
  days, with localized flooding across vulnerable areas
  anticipated, mostly across northern Puerto Rico.

* High Rip Current Risk will continue today for northern Puerto
  Rico and Culebra, while a moderate risk continue for Vieques and
  for the Virgin Islands.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 207 PM AST Wed Oct 28 2026

Active weather over the Caribbean waters south of Hispaniola
persisted farther east than anticipated this morning, as the drier
air mass expected to move over the region only reached the eastern
half of the CWA, where reduced shower activity prevailed. Meanwhile,
several rounds of heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms developed
over the southwestern Caribbean waters, with some showers affecting
southern and southwestern Puerto Rico, mainly from Cabo Rojo to
Ponce. However, the latest radar observations indicate that
convective activity has diminished considerably, with most of the
remaining showers confined to the offshore Caribbean waters.
Although a few locations across north-central Puerto Rico briefly
reached Heat Advisory criteria, these conditions were highly
localized. In fact, several weather stations across the CWA reported
temperatures 1 to 3 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago during the
early morning hours, likely due to the presence of high cloud cover.
Therefore, a Heat Advisory was not issued. Nevertheless, heat index
values may still exceed 100 degrees across coastal and urban areas,
although overall heat impacts should be lower than in previous days.

For the remainder of today, the region will remain between an upper-
level trough over the western Caribbean and a ridge extending across
the eastern Caribbean. Although ridging aloft and relatively dry mid-
level conditions may limit convective development, available
moisture, daytime heating, and local sea breeze convergence may
still support additional afternoon showers and isolated
thunderstorms, particularly across interior and northwestern Puerto
Rico. However, lingering cloud coverage and the recent decrease in
convective activity introduce some uncertainty regarding afternoon
development. Any stronger thunderstorms could produce locally heavy
rainfall and ponding of water on roads and in poorly drained areas.

For Thursday and Friday, the GFS and ECMWF suggest a gradual
increase in mid-level moisture as the influence of the ridge aloft
weakens. Although precipitable water values are expected to remain
near seasonal levels, generally between 1.5 and 1.8 inches, both
models indicate increasing moisture in the 700-500 mb layer, along
with cooler 500 mb temperatures and steeper mid-level lapse rates.
However, fluctuations in low- to mid-level moisture and relatively
weak 850-700 mb lapse rates may continue to limit shower and
thunderstorm coverage at times. Therefore, afternoon convection will
remain highly dependent on daytime heating, sea breeze convergence,
and local effects. While somewhat lower rainfall accumulations
remain possible on Thursday, the improving mid-level environment may
favor stronger convection by Friday, with locally heavy rainfall,
frequent lightning, and urban and small stream flooding possible
where the heaviest activity develops.

&&

.Long Term(Saturday through next Tuesday)...
Issued at 207 PM AST Wed Oct 28 2026

Moist and unstable conditions are forecast to start the long term
period. Moisture will continue moving over the local area,
maintaining PWAT values above 2 inches for most of the period. A
surface high over the Atlantic will result in an easterly flow to
start the period, before becoming more southeasterly to start the
next week and continue throughout the period. Mid-level drier air is
forecast to persist Saturday, before becoming less pronounced Sunday
onwards. An upper trough will be mainly west of the region to start
the period, however some uncertainty persists with model guidance
now suggesting that the upper trough will move away from the region
early next week. However, guidance shows low- to mid-level moisture
increasing as the period continues.  The trough will support through
at least the weekend, cool mid-level temperatures (-6 to -7 C),
steep lapse rates, and upper-level divergence, factors that promote
cloud development and support deeper convection over the region. 500
mb temperatures will warm up somewhat to around -6C during the
workweek. Nocturnal and morning showers and t-storms are expected
mainly over the weekend, especially across the U.S. Virgin Islands
and eastern to southeastern Puerto Rico. With above normal moisture
persisting, afternoon convection will focus primarily over interior,
western, and northwestern Puerto Rico, with streamers also
developing from El Yunque and the local islands. Heavy rainfall
totals may trigger urban and small stream flooding. Additionally, t-
storms may produce frequent lightning and gusty winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 207 PM AST Wed Oct 28 2026

Mainly VFR conds expected across all terminals. SHRA/ISOLD TSRA
across interior and NW PR thru 22Z may cause mtn obscurations and
brief MVFR conds near TJBQ, although it will depend on cloud
clearing above. Winds ESE-SE at 8-16 kts, bcmg lgt/VRB overnight. SE
winds increasing aft 14Z Thu, with gusts up to the low 20s kts
possible. VCTS expected at TJBQ/TJPS aft 17Z Thu, with brief
MVFR/TSRA possible at TJBQ.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 207 PM AST Wed Oct 28 2026

Recent observations from nearshore buoys indicate seas of 3 to 4
feet, while offshore Atlantic buoys show seas of 5 to 6 feet.
Small craft operators should continue to exercise caution,
particularly across exposed Atlantic waters and local passages.
Expect subsiding seas, as the long-period northerly swell
continues to diminish overnight. A surface high- pressure system
over the central Atlantic will maintain moderate to locally fresh
east to southeasterly winds across the regional waters over the
next several days, resulting in choppy conditions at times,
especially across offshore waters and exposed coastal areas.
Meanwhile, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
continue to affect the Caribbean waters and local passages through
the remainder of today, potentially producing brief periods of
reduced visibility, locally gusty winds, and rougher seas.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 207 PM AST Wed Oct 28 2026

A gradually improvement in beach conditions is forecast from
tomorrow onwards, as the long period northerly swell diminishes.
Nevertheless, breaking waves between 5 and 7 feet across northern-
exposed beaches of the islands could lead to life-threatening rip
currents. Therefore, the high rip current risk continues for the
beaches along western to northeast Puerto Rico through 6 PM today.
Nevertheless, we encourage people to monitor our forecast, as we
are planning to extend the High Rip Current Risk through tomorrow
morning. Residents and visitors are encouraged to heed the advice
of lifeguards, beach patrol flags and signs. Although the risk
will become moderate over the next few days, beachgoers must still
exercise caution as life- threatening rip currents are possible
along the surf zone. Besides rip currents, extreme high tides will
continue. This combined with the fading swell could lead to
localized minor coastal flooding across vulnerable coastal areas.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001-002-
     005-008-010-012.

VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CVB
LONG TERM...MRR
MARINE/BEACH FORECAST...MMC

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion