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515
FXCA62 TJSJ 131725
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
125 PM AST Fri Feb 13 2026

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 125 PM AST Fri Feb 13 2026

* Limited shower activity is expected this afternoon. By
  Saturday, mostly stable conditions are expected to start the
  day. During the afternoon, showers should develop across the
  interior and into western Puerto Rico, posing little to no flood
  risk. Warmer temperatures are also expected.

* From late Saturday into Sunday, weather conditions will
  deteriorate as a frontal boundary and the associated pre-frontal
  trough enhance cloudiness and showers across the region.

* A moderate risk of rip currents is expected along north-facing
  beaches of Puerto Rico and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands
  tonight and tomorrow. This risk may increase to high on Sunday
  due to a pulse of a long-period northerly swell.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 125 PM AST Fri Feb 13 2026

Southeasterly winds continue to steer showers from the Caribbean Sea
over the islands. Current radar accumulations indicate that areas
with at least minimal accumulations since midnight are SW PR, E PR,
Culebra, St. Croix and easternmost St. John. Over Puerto Rico, the
highest radar estimated accumulation was 1.20 in over northern
Humacao. Over the U.S. Virgin Islands, the highest radar estimated
accumulation was 0.43 in over western St. Croix. Official and
unofficial stations report temperatures in the low to mid 80s at
lower elevations of the islands and in the low to mid 70s at higher
elevations of Puerto Rico. Current satellite derived precipitable
water (PWAT) values indicate 1.38 to 1.55 inches (increasing
northward), at normal to slightly above normal values for this time
of the year. The 12Z sounding detected 1.57 inches of PWAT. Drier
air (with embedded showers and with low concentrations of Saharan
Dust) under the light to moderate southeasterly steering flow is
moving over the islands. This light to moderate southeasterly
steering flow is a result of a broad surface high high over the
central Atlantic, as well as due to a frontal low over the western
Atlantic and an approaching pre-frontal trough. PWAT values will
continue gradually decreasing (reaching less than an inch tomorrow)
this afternoon into tomorrow. Advective showers will continue to
move towards windward areas with convective showers possibly
developing mainly over interior to northwestern PR, resulting in a
limited flooding risk. As a frontal boundary and its associated pre-
frontal trough approach the area, winds will start backing tomorrow
becoming more easterly and then northeasterly by tomorrow afternoon
and veering to become more east-northeasterly by Sunday. PWAT values
by Saturday night into Sunday are forecast at around 1.6 to 1.7
inches over the area, as the same moisture field that has been
moving back and forth over the islands this last week is once again
steered back into the islands as the frontal boundary approaches.
This will all promote an increase in light to moderate shower
frequency under the northeasterly winds, prompting a limited
flooding risk. Patchy fog will also develop over sectors of the
interior. 925 temperatures will continue at low end normal to above
normal values during the period.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)...
Issued at 257 AM AST Fri Feb 13 2026

Monday is expected to be a transition day during the long-term
forecast period, as a weak frontal boundary affects the forecast
area. Winds will gradually veer to an easterly direction as a
surface high builds over the western Atlantic and migrates toward
the central Atlantic. Although the frontal boundary will be
weakening, lingering moisture and the influence of a prevailing mid-
to upper-level trough will support scattered showers, particularly
across northern and western Puerto Rico, with isolated periods of
locally heavy rainfall possible.

By Tuesday, a mid- to upper-level ridge is forecast to begin
establishing across the region, promoting a gradual stabilization of
the atmosphere. Latest precipitable water (PWAT) guidance supports
this trend, with values decreasing toward seasonal climatological
levels, generally around 1.20 to 1.55 inches. As a result, shower
coverage is expected to decrease compared to Monday, with trade-wind
moisture favoring brief passing morning showers across eastern
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, followed by limited
afternoon convective development over interior and western Puerto
Rico.

From Wednesday through Friday, a more stable weather pattern is
expected to prevail across the region. Under this regime, warm and
humid conditions will persist, with mainly fair weather punctuated
by brief trade-wind showers during the morning hours and isolated
afternoon convection over western Puerto Rico. Overall, the flooding
threat should decrease after Monday as more stable conditions take
hold.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 PM AST Fri Feb 13 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected. ESE to SE winds up to 10-13 kts,
with higher gusts, through 13/23Z. Winds becoming light thereafter
and picking up again from the ESE at 14/13Z up to 10-13 kts.
Winds will back thereafter, bcmg ENE by tomorrow night. VCSH
possible during the period with a chance of VCSH/-SHRA at TJBQ
through 13/19z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 125 PM AST Fri Feb 13 2026

A surface high-pressure system across the central to eastern
Atlantic and a nearby col region will lead to light to gentle east
to southeast winds tonight and Saturday. By Sunday, a frontal
boundary will approach the region from the north, promoting moderate
winds that will shift from the northeast, along with increasing
cloud cover and rain chances. Additionally, a pulse of long-period
northerly swell will arrive around Sunday evening and continue into
Monday, increasing wave heights to around 5 to 7 feet. Small craft
operators will likely need to exercise caution particularly across
the Atlantic waters and Mona passage.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 125 PM AST Fri Feb 13 2026

Tonight, there is a moderate risk of rip currents for the northwest,
northern, and eastern exposed beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra, and
the northern USVI due to breaking waves up to 5 feet. Beaches
protected to the south have a low risk, however, life-threatening
rip currents often occur in the vicinity of groins, jetties, reefs,
and piers. By Saturday, similar conditions are anticipated. A pulse
of long-period northerly swell is forecast to spread across the
Atlantic waters from Sunday into Monday, and the risk may increase
to high. Continue to monitor the forecast for additional updates.
For specific location information, visit weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001-002-
     005-008.

VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

MRR/YZR

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion