Your Number One Source for Real-Time Puerto Rico Weather & Hurricane Tracking Updates

232
FXCA62 TJSJ 031807
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
207 PM AST Tue Feb 3 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 153 PM AST Tue Feb 3 2026

* Hazardous Marine & Coastal Conditions: A powerful, long-period
  northerly to north-northeasterly swell continues to impact the
  region. Coastal Flood and High Surf Warnings remain in effect for
  north-facing beaches. Breaking waves of 15 to 20 ft will continue,
  and a High Risk of Rip Currents persists across exposed coastlines.

* Wind Shift: Northerly winds remain windy this afternoon but will
  gradually veer to the northeast by Wednesday and become east-
  southeast by Thursday. This evolving wind pattern will continue to
  pool moisture over the islands, supporting periods of showers
  through midweek.

* Near-to-Below Normal Temperatures: Cooler air mass conditions
  persist across the region. Coastal areas can expect afternoon
  highs in the upper 60s to low 70s, with mid-60s across higher
  elevations. Overnight lows will range from the mid-50s to low 60s
  in the mountains and mid-60s to low 70s elsewhere.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 153 PM AST Tue Feb 3 2026

Variable weather conditions continue due to the presence of a
frontal boundary across the region. Skies remained mostly cloudy to
cloudy during the morning hours. Breezy northerly winds resulted in
a cool advective pattern, producing light to moderate rainfall,
particularly across the northeastern third of Puerto Rico and the
northern USVI.

Although showers were generally not strong, persistent rainfall
combined with recent precipitation has resulted in saturated soils
and elevated streamflows across much of Puerto Rico. Over the past
48 hours, rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches were observed across most
areas, with higher amounts of 5 to 7 inches reported across south-
central municipalities and the Cordillera Central. Localized
landslides have been reported. the bulk of the frontal boundary is
over St. Meanwhile, the bulk of the frontal boundary is positioned
over St. Croix, resulting in rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3
inches, particularly across the western portion of the island.

Several USGS river gauges reached action stage during the night and
morning hours, with the Rio Grande near El Verde briefly reaching
flood stage. It was confirmed that areas near the river, including
PR-952 in Sector Galateo, became impassable due to the river
overtopping its banks. The frontal boundary also produced gusty wind
conditions. Maximum wind gusts in Puerto Rico were reported in the
upper 20s to lower 30s mph. St. Thomas was particularly impacted,
with wind gusts in the upper 30s to lower 40s mph, including a peak
gust of 55 mph at Cyril E. King Airport. Widespread power outages
were reported across the island and portions of Puerto Rico due to
fallen trees and downed electrical poles.

These weather conditions will continue today, with a cool advective
pattern affecting mostly northeastern municipalities and northern
U.S> Virgin Islands. Heavy rainfall is not anticipated; however,
continued light to moderate rain may exacerbate vulnerable areas
with saturated soils, especially in steep terrain, and maintain
elevated streamflows. Gusty wind conditions are expected to persist
through at least late tonight.

For the remainder of the forecast period, the frontal boundary will
linger across the region. Northerly winds will gradually diminish on
Wednesday as winds shift to the east, becoming east-southeasterly by
Thursday. Showery conditions are expected to continue, particularly
across windward coastal areas, though rainfall accumulations are not
expected to be as high. Nonetheless, areas experiencing prolonged
rainfall could still face a limited flooding threat. Reduced
visibility is also possible across higher elevations and interior
valleys due to patchy fog during the late night and early morning
hours.

&&

.Long Term(Friday through next Monday)...
Issued at 153 PM AST Tue Feb 3 2026
//from previous discussion//

During the long-term period, variable conditions are expected. A
high-pressure system over the central Atlantic will promote a
southeasterly flow at the start of the period. By Friday,
precipitable water values are forecast to decrease from around 1.9
inches to near 1.3 inches, resulting in lower rain chances, with
moisture becoming more confined to the lower levels. The remainder
of the weekend into early next week will be influenced by the
arrival of another deep polar trough and its associated frontal
boundary, which will likely increase rain chances and elevate the
flood risk once again. At this time, flood risk on Saturday
remains limited to elevated; however, model guidance has been
inconsistent regarding the timing of the next frontal boundary.
Current guidance now indicates the front passing late Friday into
Saturday, increasing moisture values to above normal levels, near
2 inches. Low-level winds are expected to remain very light due to
the presence of a col region. By Saturday night into Sunday,
winds are forecast to slightly increase and shift from the north
to northeast in the wake of the front, if it materializes. Areas
exposed to northerly and northeasterly flow will have the highest
rain chances as showers are advected inland with available
moisture. Early next week, there will be less moisture, but rain
chances remain around 30 to 40 % across windward areas, and local
effects induces showers. Temperature wise, guidance suggest
seasonal to above normal temperatures during the forecast period.
Please continue to monitor forecast updates and remain informed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 153 PM AST Tue Feb 3 2026

VFR across most TAF sites, with periods of MVFR condt possible. A
FROPA will continue to produce -RA to +RA across all terminals.
Winds will remain N, shifting NE through Wednesday, increasing to
1520 kt with higher gusts, strongest during the afternoon hours.
Recent PIREPs indicate LGT TURB across most TAF sites and LLWS in
TIST. TURB and LLWS remains possible 03/18Z through 04/18Z as the
frontal boundary continues to move eastward across the Lesser
Antilles. BKN/OVC cigs FL020FL070 expected at times.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 153 PM AST Tue Feb 3 2026

A frontal boundary across the region will continue to linger
through at least midweek, promoting northerly winds of 20 to 25
knots with higher gusts. In addition, a large, long-period
northerly to northwesterly swell will maintain hazardous seas of
10 to 14 feet across local waters and passages through around
midweek. These conditions will remain hazardous to small craft,
and Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all coastal and
offshore waters through at least late Wednesday night.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 153 PM AST Tue Feb 3 2026

A large, long-period northerly to northwest swell will continue
spreading across the waters and passages through midweek, resulting
in hazardous beach conditions. Coastal Flood and High Surf
Warnings remain in effect for the west, east, and north-facing
coastlines of Puerto Rico, with Coastal Flood and High Surf
Advisories in effect for the U.S. Virgin Islands and southwest
Puerto Rico.

Large breaking waves of 15 to 20 feet are expected through
tonight, and a High Risk of rip currents will persist. These
conditions will result in life-threatening marine and surf
conditions. The public is urged to stay out of the water and
continue to monitor the forecast for updates.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...Coastal Flood Warning until 6 AM AST Wednesday for PRZ001-002-
     005-008-010.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for PRZ001-
     002-005-008-010>012.

     High Surf Warning until 6 AM AST Wednesday for PRZ001-002-005-
     008-010.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for PRZ011-012.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for PRZ011-012.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for PRZ013.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for VIZ001.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for VIZ001.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for VIZ001.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for VIZ002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Thursday for AMZ711-712-716.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight AST Wednesday night for
     AMZ723-726-733-735-741-742-745.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CVB
LONG TERM...YZR
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACH FORECAST...MMC

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion