Your Number One Source for Real-Time Puerto Rico Weather & Hurricane Tracking Updates

150
FXCA62 TJSJ 151832
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
232 PM AST Fri May 15 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 229 PM AST Fri May 15 2026

* Above-normal temperatures will persist across Puerto Rico and the
  U.S. Virgin Islands through the weekend, with heat indices
  reaching the upper 90s to low 100s during peak afternoon hours,
  especially across urban and coastal areas.

* Passing showers will continue across eastern Puerto Rico and the
  U.S. Virgin Islands during the overnight and morning hours,
  followed by afternoon convection across western Puerto Rico.

* Low concentrations of Saharan dust particles will be present over
  the area, particularly on saturday.

* An upper-level trough will approach from Sunday onward. This may
  result in more frequent showers and isolated thunderstorms.

* A moderate risk of rip currents will persist along many north-
  and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and
  the U.S. Virgin Islands through much of the forecast period.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 229 PM AST Fri May 15 2026

Mostly tranquil conditions have persisted this morning, with the
exception of a few passing showers across the U.S. Virgin Islands
and portions of eastern and southeastern Puerto Rico. Surface
observations have registered east to southeast winds at around 10 to
15 mph, with peak gusts up to 20 mph near coastal areas. Daytime
highs have generally ranged from the upper 80s to low 90s across
urban and coastal areas of Puerto Rico and from the upper 70s to low
80s across higher elevations. Across the U.S. Virgin Islands,
maximum temperatures have reached the mid to upper 80s. Heat indices
have generally ranged from the mid 90s to around 100 to 105 degrees
F.

This afternoon, expect the development of isolated to scattered
diurnally induced showers across the northwestern quadrant of Puerto
Rico, while streamers from El Yunque may bring some cloudiness or
rain activity to the metro area. Rainfall accumulations are not
expected to be significant, and the flood risk remains limited.

The dominant feature through Saturday will continue to be a mid to
upper-level ridge, which will help limit widespread thunderstorm
development and maintain similar conditions tomorrow. As a result,
east to southeast winds will continue to transport patches of
moisture across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, resulting
in periods of showery weather with moderate to locally heavy
rainfall at times. During the afternoon hours, local effects, sea
breeze convergence, and daytime heating will once again support the
development of showers across interior and western Puerto Rico.
Additionally, low concentrations of Saharan dust will remain present
across the region during the short-term period. The highest
concentrations are expected to stay south of the islands over the
Caribbean Sea, although slight increases in hazy conditions are
possible by Saturday.

By Sunday, the ridge is forecast to start weaken as a mid to upper-
level trough approaches from the west. This will increase
instability and improve the chances for thunderstorm development
across the region. however, current model guidance indicates the
presence of some drier air in the mid levels of the atmosphere,
which could help suppress convective activity.

Warm to hot conditions will remain one of the primary weather
concerns. Current 925 mb temperature guidance indicates above-normal
temperatures will persist throughout the short term period. Expect
daytime highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s across coastal and urban
areas with heat indices exceeding 100 degrees F during peak
afternoon hours.

&&

.Long Term(Monday through next Thursday)...
Issued at 403 AM AST Fri May 15 2026

A gradual transition toward a wetter weather pattern is expected
across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through the upcoming
workweek. Surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will
maintain easterly winds early in the period, gradually veering east-
southeasterly by midweek while weakening from fresh to strong speeds
to more moderate to locally fresh conditions late in the week.
Although moisture levels early in the period should remain near to
slightly below seasonal normals, patches of deeper tropical moisture
moving across the region will continue to promote passing showers
across eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands during the
overnight and morning hours, followed by afternoon convection across
western Puerto Rico.

At upper levels, model guidance continues to indicate an amplifying
trough north of the northeastern Caribbean, with marginally cooler
mid-level temperatures gradually spreading closer to the local
islands through mid to late week. At the same time, mid-level
conditions are forecast to become less dry, allowing for a somewhat
more favorable environment for shower development. As precipitable
water values gradually increase to near and occasionally above
normal levels, shower activity is expected to become more frequent
by Wednesday and Thursday, particularly across western and
northwestern Puerto Rico and portions of the San Juan metropolitan
area. Although thunderstorms were not explicitly introduced into the
forecast at this time, excessive diurnal heating combined with the
more favorable thermodynamic environment may support one or two very
isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. Hazard risks
remain at medium confidence, primarily associated with localized
excessive rainfall and excessive heat, as warm to hot daytime
temperatures and elevated humidity levels will likely continue
through much of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 229 PM AST Fri May 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected across all TAF terminals. TJBQ may
observe VCSH/SHRA thru 15/22Z. Winds will remain from E-SE around 10
to 15 kts with occasional higher gusts, becoming light and variable
overnight. VCSH over TIST and TISX are possible during the overnight
period. From 16/14Z, winds are expected to increase again and
VCTS/TSRA are possible across TJBQ aft 16/17Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 229 PM AST Fri May 15 2026

A broad surface high-pressure over the central Atlantic will
continue to promote moderate to locally fresh east to east-
southeasterly winds across the regional waters. These conditions
will maintain choppy seas across the offshore Atlantic and Caribbean
waters during the next several days. Seas are forecast to remain
between 4 and 5 feet, occasionally up to 6 feet, through early next
week.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 229 PM AST Fri May 15 2026

A moderate rip current risk is expected to prevail through the
middle of next week along the northern and eastern beaches of PR, as
well as Culebra, Vieques, and the US Virgin Islands. Beachgoers are
encouraged to continue exercising caution especially near piers and
unprotected beaches, as life-threatening rip currents are possible
in the area.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

MORNING SHIFT...GRS/YZR
EVENING SHIFT...DSR/ICP

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion