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670
FXCA62 TJSJ 041834
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
234 PM AST Wed Mar 4 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 218 PM AST Wed Mar 4 2026

* Fresh to strong winds will result in choppy to rough seas and high
  risk of rip currents across the region. Small Craft Advisories and
  Rip Current Statements continue in effect through at least
  Saturday.

* Breezy to Windy Conditions will continue across coastal areas of
  the islands, unsecured and outdoor objects may blow around. These
  conditions will likely persist for the next several days.

* Moderate to locally strong showers will lead to ponding of water
  over roadways and poorly drained areas over eastern and western
  Puerto Rico, and the U. for the rest of today.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 218 PM AST Wed Mar 4 2026

Variable weather conditions prevailed across the islands today under
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. By mid-morning, a patch of low-
level moisture began filtering into the area, triggering showers
across St. Croix and eastern Puerto Rico. Later, another round of
showers developed over St. Thomas and Culebra, eventually spreading
across the eastern interior of Puerto Rico. Despite this activity,
Doppler radar estimated rainfall accumulations, ranging between
0.50 and 1.00 inches. Breezy to windy conditions persisted under
an easterly winds with sustained speeds of 17 to 29 mph with
higher gusts. The Henry E. Rohlsen International Airport in St.
Croix reported a max wind gust of 38 mph, while the Luis Muoz
Marn International Airport in San Juan reported a max wind gust
of 37 mph.

As this patch of moisture continues to transit the region,
additional showers will develop throughout the afternoon,
particularly over the interior and western portions of Puerto Rico.
However, significant rainfall accumulations are not anticipated.

The weather pattern is expected to remain consistent over the next
few days. A broad high-pressure system over the western and central
Atlantic will continue to promote breezy easterly to northeasterly
winds. Patches of moisture will filter into the area, bringing fast-
moving showers to the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico
during the morning hours, followed by afternoon development across
western Puerto Rico. During this time, precipitable water (PWAT)
values will remain near or slightly above normal, ranging from 1.30
to 1.50 inches.

By Friday night and into the weekend, a broad patch of moisture is
forecast to arrive. These broader moisture patches will elevate PWAT
values to between 1.75 and 1.90 inches. This will likely increase
the frequency of fast-moving showers over windward areas during the
overnight and morning hours, while enhancing afternoon shower
development across western and southwestern Puerto Rico.
Temperatures at the 925 mb level are expected to remain at seasonal
values, and low concentrations of Saharan Dust will continue to
filter through the region through at least the end of the week.

&&

.Long Term(Saturday through next Tuesday)...
Issued at 218 PM AST Wed Mar 4 2026

A broad and strong surface high pressure system over the western
Atlantic will remain the dominant feature through early next week
while gradually shifting northeast. This pattern will maintain a
tight local pressure gradient across the northeastern Caribbean,
supporting persistent easterly winds with minor directional
variations. Based on Beaufort scale equivalents, winds will
generally range from strong breeze to near gale at times,
particularly across coastal waters and exposed areas over the
weekend. Aloft, a segment of the subtropical jet will extend across
the region, followed by an approaching short-wave trough that is
forecast to linger to the west over Hispaniola, promoting gradual
cooling aloft and somewhat more favorable upper-level conditions.

Moisture will remain above normal for this time of year, keeping the
forecast on the wetter side of climatology through the period.
However, persistent mid-level dryness should continue to limit
vertical development and rainfall efficiency. As a result, shower
activity will mainly consist of fast-moving trade wind showers, with
brief periods of moderate rainfall possible across windward areas
overnight and during the morning hours, followed by isolated
afternoon activity across interior and western Puerto Rico. Breezy
to windy conditions will remain the primary hazard, contributing to
hazardous marine and beach conditions, while only localized ponding
in poor drainage areas is expected where showers persist.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 218 PM AST Wed Mar 4 2026

Mainly VFR conds expected thru the period across all TAF sites. E
to ENE winds btwn 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt will continue to
impact all terminals thru 04/23Z. -SHRA will affect TJSJ/TJPS/TJBQ
at times thru 04/23Z and may result in brief MVFR CIGs/VIS.
Periods of fast moving trade wind VCSH/-SHRA will continue to
affect TJSJ/TISX/TIST/TJBQ, promoting brief MVFR conditions aft
05/06Z. E winds will diminish at 05-12 kt aft 04/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 218 PM AST Wed Mar 4 2026

Marine conditions will continue hazardous over the next several
days. A series of high pressure systems across the Atlantic will
promote fresh to locally strong east-northeasterly winds throughout
the forecast period. The latest scatterometer products indicate 10 m
winds between 20 and 25 knots across regional waters. Additionally,
buoy observations show winds around 20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph,
expected to increase later in the afternoon. These conditions will
continue to result in choppy to rough seas across most regional
waters and passages over the CWA, hazardous for small craft. Small
Craft Advisories remain in effect through 6 AM AST Saturday, though
these may be extended as breezy to windy conditions will likely
persist over the next several days.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 218 PM AST Wed Mar 4 2026

No major changes were introduced to the beach forecast. As mentioned
in the previous discussions, breezy to windy conditions in
combination with a wind trade swell will continue to result in
breaking waves between 6 and 7 feet, hazardous for beachgoers.
Hence, a high risk of rip currents remains in effect over northern
and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico and St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin
Islands. Resident and visitors are encouraged to exercise caution,
as life-threatening rip currents will be present along the surf
zone. Although the swell will gradually diminish by late Friday,
hazardous conditions will like persist this weekend. For additional
information and location-specific rip current details, please visit:
weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for PRZ001-002-
     005-008.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for VIZ002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Saturday for AMZ711-712-716-
     723-726-733-741.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Friday for AMZ735.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GRS
LONG TERM....ICP
PUBLIC/MARINE/BEACH FORECAST...MNG

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion