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744
FXCA62 TJSJ 171831
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
231 PM AST Tue Feb 17 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 200 PM AST Tue Feb 17 2026

* Shower activity is still expected to develop across portions of
  the interior and western Puerto Rico.

* Hazardous seas and life-threatening rip currents are expected on
  Thursday and Friday with the arrival of a northerly swell.

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, brief passing showers will
  continue mainly during the nighttime and early morning hours,
  along with worsening marine and beach conditions late in the
  week.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 200 PM AST Tue Feb 17 2026

Mostly sunny skies were observed across the islands during the
day. For the rest of this afternoon, locally induced showers are
expected to develop over portions of the interior and western PR.
High temperatures were in the mid to high 80s across the lower
elevations of the islands to the upper 70s and low 80s across the
higher elevations. Winds were from the southeast between 10 and 15
mph with sea breeze variations across the western and northern
coast of PR.

Late tonight into Wednesday morning, a patch of moisture currently
over the Leeward Islands is expected to bring passing showers
across the USVI and portions of eastern PR. However, rainfall
amounts should not be significant. Meanwhile, a surface high
pressure over the western Atlantic will promote moderate to
locally fresh east to east-northeast trades across the region
through the rest of the short-term period. At the upper levels, a
mid-level ridge will gradually build from the west, promoting
drier air and more stable conditions in general across the
northeastern Caribbean. Therefore, fair weather conditions are
expected to prevail in general on Wednesday and Thursday, with
locally induced afternoon showers developing mainly over portions
of central and western PR each day.

&&

.Long Term(Friday through next Monday)...
Issued at 444 AM AST Tue Feb 17 2026

Mostly stable conditions on the upcoming weekend and early next
week, with slight uncertainty by the end of the forecast period. The
wind pattern transition is expected on Sunday, from the east to the
southeast, as the surface high pressure migrates from the western
Atlantic into the Central Atlantic. Drier air masses will filter
into the region for most of the period, with occasional patches of
moisture that will increase shower activity. Theres a medium chance
of seasonal to below normal PWAT values (1.0 - 1.2 inches, up to 1.4
inches with the arrival of the patches), based on the probabilistic
guidance of the GFS and ECMWF. Additionally, ensemble members
continue to show low variability (approximately 0.2 inches),
increasing confidence. As mentioned in the previous discussion,  a
mid-level ridge is expected to move over the Bahamas and linger
during the weekend, with warmer-than-normal mid-level temperatures
(500 mb temperatures up to 4 degrees Celsius), sinking air, and
stability aloft. Under a blocking pattern, shower activity should
remain limited and shallow. Hence, the most likely scenario is
shower activity over the waters moving into windward sections during
the night into the morning hours, with afternoon convection over
interior and western/northwestern Puerto Rico, including streamers
from the U.S. Virgin Islands. Due strengthening winds, showers
should move quickly, with a low chance of significant rainfall
accumulations. Hence, the flood and lightning threat should remain
low. Theres a model discrepancy regarding Tuesday`s weather
conditions, as both GFS and ECMWF suggest a deep-layered trough that
may deepen into the tropics and introduce instability. Nevertheless,
theres variability in terms of moisture content (PWAT difference up
to 0.4 - 0.5 inches). Hence, uncertainty remains high for the end of
the forecast period.

As mentioned in the previous discussion, slightly warmer-than-normal
temperatures are still expected throughout the forecast period.
Although theres a low chance of heat indices exceeding 100 degrees
Fahrenheit, maximum temperatures may reach the low 90s in localized
urban and coastal areas across the islands.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 200 PM AST Tue Feb 17 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals
during the next 24 hours. However, TSRA over the western interior
of PR should cause mostly VCTS at TJPS/TJBQ btw 17/18-22. Also,
SHRA en route fm the Leeward terminals could reach the USVI
terminals btw 18/06-10z. The 17/12z TJSJ sounding indicated ESE
winds up to 14 kt blo FL040.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 200 PM AST Tue Feb 17 2026

A broad surface low and associated front across the central Atlantic
will continue to promote light winds today. From Wednesday onward,
winds turn once again from the east as a nearly stationary surface
high pressure builds from the western Atlantic. On Thursday and
Friday, a long-period northerly swell will build seas around 7
feet across the Atlantic waters.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 200 PM AST Tue Feb 17 2026

Coastal buoys were indicating seas around 3 feet and ESE winds up
to 10 knots. A low to moderate risk of rip currents will continue
through Wednesday, as seas and winds continue to diminish in
general. However, by early Thursday morning, a long period
northerly swell will build seas up to 6 and 7 feet across the
Atlantic coastal waters of the islands. This will increase the
risk of life-threatening rip currents and high surf conditions
across most northern exposed beaches of PR, Culebra, St. Thomas,
and St. John. A Rip Current Statement will likely be issued
tomorrow for these zones.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSR
LONG TERM....MNG
AVIATION...DSR
MARINE...DSR
BEACH...DSR

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion