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605
FXCA62 TJSJ 160720 CCA
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
320 AM AST Tue Jun 16 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, FIRE WEATHER...
...UPDATED RIP CURRENTS...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 315 AM AST Tue Jun 16 2026

* Generally stable weather will prevail through midweek, with a
  brief increase in showers and isolated thunderstorms later in
  the week.

* Hot afternoons and warm nights will persist through the
  forecast period.

* Dry fuels, hot temperatures, and breezy conditions will continue
  to support an elevated wildfire threat, especially across
  southern, western, and central interior Puerto Rico.

* Saharan dust is expected to increase later in the week,
  resulting in hazy skies and degraded air quality into the
  weekend.

* Choppy marine conditions and rip current risks will ease
  through midweek before increasing again later in the week.


&&

.Short Term(Today through Thursday)...
Issued at 315 AM AST Tue Jun 16 2026

Hot afternoons and warm nights will persist through the period,
accompanied by breezy to locally windy conditions. Dry fuels and
persistent winds will continue to support an elevated fire weather
risk, particularly across southern and western Puerto Rico, until
more meaningful wetting rains arrive and winds subside. Saharan
dust is expected to begin spreading into the region Thursday
afternoon and become more concentrated Thursday night, resulting
in hazy skies.

Today and Wednesday will feature a relatively dry and stable
pattern, with only brief passing showers across windward areas and
isolated afternoon convection over western Puerto Rico. By
Thursday, a tropical wave moving through the eastern Caribbean,
combined with an upper-level cut-off low/trough lingering east of
the region, will temporarily increase moisture and instability.
Despite these changes, dry mid-level air is expected to persist,
limiting the vertical extent and overall coverage of convection.
Nevertheless, shower activity is expected to increase, with
isolated thunderstorms possible, especially during the afternoon
over western Puerto Rico.

While localized lightning, ponding of water, and minor flooding
cannot be ruled out on Thursday, antecedent dry conditions and
below-normal streamflows across much of the area should help keep
flooding impacts localized and limited. Winds will remain
predominantly easterly through most of the period before becoming
east-southeasterly late Thursday.

&&

.Long Term(Friday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 AM AST Tue Jun 16 2026

Dry and stable conditions remain on track for most of the long-
term period following the passage of a tropical wave across Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Moisture levels will gradually
decrease from Friday into Sunday, falling below climatological
normals for the season. This will be driven by strong surface high
pressure over the central Atlantic, combined with a strengthening
mid-level ridge over the region. At the upper levels, a lingering
trough east-northeast of the area will gradually lift northward,
losing its influence on the local weather pattern.

Meanwhile, moderate concentrations of Saharan dust are expected to
arrive and persist through much of the period, resulting in hazy
skies, reduced visibility, and degraded air quality across the
islands. Residents and visitors, particularly those with
respiratory sensitivities or allergies, should consider limiting
prolonged outdoor exertion during periods of heavier haze.

By late Sunday into Monday, another tropical wave is expected to
move south of the area. While the northern periphery of this wave
could briefly enhance moisture across the region, no significant
increase in shower activity or thunderstorm development is
anticipated through midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 315 AM AST Tue Jun 16 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through the
forecast period. VCSH with brief -SHRA is possible near TJSJ
through 16/14Z and near the USVI terminals and TJBQ between
16/17Z-20Z. Light Saharan dust will maintain locally hazy skies
with minimal VIS impacts. E winds will increase to 15-20 kt with
higher gusts and sea-breeze variations between 16/14Z-23Z,
becoming 10 kt or less overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 AM AST Tue Jun 16 2026

Easterly trade winds and seas will gradually diminish through
midweek, with seas generally falling to 5 feet or less and
improving marine conditions. During the second half of the week, a
tropical wave will bring a modest increase in shower activity
while strengthening trade winds allow choppy seas and Small Craft
Exercise Caution conditions to return across portions of the
offshore waters and local passages into the weekend. Increasing
Saharan dust concentrations may also result in hazy skies and
locally reduced visibility.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 315 AM AST Tue Jun 16 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents continues today for beaches of
the north-central and northwestern coasts of Puerto Rico, as well
as eastern Culebra and St Croix.

A low risk of rip currents is expected across most local beaches
Wednesday and Thursday, though dangerous rip currents remain
possible, especially near jetties, piers, reefs, and channels.
Beginning Friday and continuing through Saturday, a moderate risk
is forecast for most north- and east-facing beaches of Puerto
Rico, including Culebra and Vieques, as well as St. Croix.
Beachgoers should exercise caution and follow the guidance of
local authorities.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 AM AST Tue Jun 16 2026

A Fire Danger Statement has been issued for today, with the
greatest fire danger expected during the late morning and early
afternoon hours across portions of southern, western, and central
interior Puerto Rico.

Looking ahead, the overall fire weather pattern is expected to
change little over the next 5 to 7 days. While patches of moisture
will continue to produce occasional fast-moving showers and a
tropical wave may temporarily increase moisture and shower
activity late this week, rainfall is expected to remain localized
and insufficient to produce widespread wetting of critically dry
fuels or substantially improve ongoing drought conditions. As
drier air returns behind the wave, critically dry fuels and
periods of breezy winds will continue to favor wildfire spread
where ignitions occur.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

EVE...LIS/GRS
MID...ICP

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion