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095
FXCA62 TJSJ 031802
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
202 PM AST Mon Aug 3 2026

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, FIRE
WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1227 PM AST Mon Aug 3 2026

* Dangerous heat will continue across Puerto Rico and the U.S.
  Virgin Islands throughout much of the week. Additional Heat
  Products will likely be required in the next few days,
  especially between Wednesday and Thursday.

* A drier air mass with Saharan dust will continue to overspread
  the region tonight, resulting in hazy skies, reduced air
  quality, and above-normal temperatures with a generally lower
  rainfall coverage.

* A trade wind perturbation will increase moisture, potentially
  leading to more frequent showers across the US Virgin Islands
  and Puerto Rico tomorrow.

* Increasing easterly winds will deteriorate marine and beach
  conditions from Thursday onward, resulting in choppy seas and a
  moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents along north- and
  east-facing beaches in the USVI and PR.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 1227 PM AST Mon Aug 3 2026

This morning, warmer-than-normal temperatures persisted across
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, with most urban and
coastal areas recording highs in the low 90s or upper 80s. Heat
indices were mainly between 100 and 110 across most urban and
coastal locations, where a Heat Advisory is in effect through 5 PM
AST. Winds remained mainly from the east between 10 and 20 mph,
with higher gusts and sea-breeze variations. Skies remained hazy
due to a dry air mass with suspended Saharan dust particles, which
overspread the region.

Rain activity is expected to be limited this afternoon, mainly
due to local effects, sea breeze variations, and diurnal heating
across the interior and western PR, with some showers moving
inland across the USVI and the windward sections of PR. But in
general, the weather pattern will be dominated by a dry air mass
with suspended dust particles from the Sahara, little or no rain,
and above-normal temperatures.

Expect a warmer-than-normal night due to suspended dust particles
from the Sahara Desert, which will reduce the radiational cooling
that normally occurs overnight. Late tonight into early Tuesday
morning, a trade wind perturbation will increase the potential for
passing showers across the US Virgin Islands and PR`s windward
locations. Winds will also turn more to the east-northeast.
Although we are not anticipating widespread flooding, periods of
moderate to locally heavy rain could result in water ponding
across roadways and poorly drained areas. The available moisture
will then promote afternoon convection and possibly one or two
isolated thunderstorms across the interior and western sections of
PR.

On Wednesday, the winds will be from the east-southeast, pooling
additional moisture over the region. At the same time, model
guidance is suggesting above normal temperatures at 925 mb, with
values near two standard deviations with respect to August
climatology, which, combined with the available moisture, could
result in an elevated to significant chance of observing extreme
heat during the afternoon hours, which could require Heat
Advisories or Extreme Heat Warnings. In terms of precipitation,
the typical advective rain pattern across the windward locations,
followed by afternoon convection, will persist.

&&

.Long Term(Thursday through Monday)...
Issued at 329 AM AST Mon Aug 3 2026

Variable weather conditions remain in the long-term outlook under
the influence of a broad high-pressure system extending over the
western to central Atlantic. This system will promote moderate east-
to-southeast winds through most of the period. As noted in previous
discussions, this weather pattern will bring patches of low-level
moisture into the region from time to time, along with drier air in
between, maintaining precipitable water content (PWAT) at below-
normal to normal levels for the month of August (1.40 to 2.00
inches). No significant rainfall or thunderstorm activity is
expected during this period. While passing showers will move across
the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico in the morning, they
will not lead to notable accumulations. Afternoon convective
activity across the interior toward central and western/northwestern
Puerto Rico could result in localized showers and isolated
thunderstorms at times, driven by available moisture, diurnal
heating, and local orographic effects. Therefore, the flooding risk
will be none to limited.

Overall, the forecast remains on track for excessive heat persisting
through the end of the week. Above-normal temperatures at the 925 mb
level will bring daytime highs into the upper 80s and low 90s across
coastal and urban areas each day. Combined with the east-
southeasterly winds and available moisture, these temperatures could
produce high heat indices throughout the period. Please stay
hydrated, limit heat exposure, seek air-conditioned areas, and
continue to monitor weather conditions as the week progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM AST Mon Aug 3 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail. HZ will continue, although a
gradual decrease is expected aft 04/14z. SHRA can develop ovr
interior to W PR through 23z. Winds becoming light and variable
aft 03/23z, shifting more ENE and incrsng once again to 14-17kts
with higher gusts aft 04/12Z. Passing SHRA may increase ovr
TJSJ/TIST/TISX late tonight, with SHRA/VCTS devlp aft 04/15Z
impacting TJPS/TJBQ. Reduce VIS/CIGs possible ovr TJPS.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1227 PM AST Mon Aug 3 2026

East-southeast winds will continue tonight, shifting to the east-
northeast on Tuesday as a trade wind perturbation moves across the
local waters. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds creating
choppy seas are expected from midweek onward as high pressure
strengthens over the central Atlantic. Another tropical wave is
forecast to approach and move across the local waters during the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 1227 PM AST Mon Aug 3 2026

A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents will continue
tonight for east- and north-facing beaches in PR and the USVI. The
risk will decrease to low on Tuesday and Wednesday as winds
weaken. However, even in low-risk areas, dangerous rip currents
can still occur, especially near groins, jetties, reefs, and
piers. Beachgoers should exercise caution and swim near a
lifeguard whenever possible.

The rip current risk is expected to increase back to moderate on
Thursday and persist through the weekend for beaches along the
north and east coasts of Puerto Rico, including Vieques and
Culebra, as well as the U.S. Virgin Islands, as easterly winds
strengthen. Under a moderate risk, life-threatening rip currents
are possible. Beachgoers should use extra caution before entering
the water and heed the advice of local beach officials.

Isolated thunderstorms may develop across western Puerto Rico on
Tuesday afternoon, producing frequent lightning, gusty winds, and
locally hazardous beach conditions.

In addition, an elevated to locally significant heat risk is
expected through midweek. Those planning outdoor beach activities
should stay well hydrated, take frequent breaks in the shade, and
avoid prolonged exposure during the hottest part of the day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1227 PM AST Mon Aug 3 2026

A Fire Danger Statement remains in effect through 5 PM AST this
afternoon for the southern coastal plains of Puerto Rico.
Critically dry fuels persist across these areas, with KBDI values
remaining above 683 along the southern half of PR and the USVI.
This afternoon, minimum relative humidity values will continue to
fall into critical thresholds while sustained easterly winds of
14 to 20 mph, with gusts between 20 and 30 mph, support an
elevated risk for rapid fire spread. Although isolated showers are
possible elsewhere, little to no wetting rainfall is expected
across the driest fuels of southern Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands.

Limited to elevated fire weather conditions are expected to
persist through the next several days as critically dry fuels
remain in place and breezy trade winds continue. Residents and
visitors should avoid outdoor burning and exercise caution with
any activity that could produce sparks or open flames, especially
across areas with critically dry vegetation.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...Heat Advisory until 5 PM AST this afternoon for PRZ001>005-007-
     008-010>013.

VI...Heat Advisory until 5 PM AST this afternoon for VIZ001-002.

AM...None.
&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES/SHORT TERM/MARINE/BEACH FORECAST/FIRE...CAM
LONG TERM....GRS
AVIATION...CVB

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion