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881
FXCA62 TJSJ 120605
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
205 AM AST Wed Aug 12 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 205 AM AST Wed Aug 12 2026

- Showers and isolated thunderstorms remain possible today as the
  last surge of tropical-wave moisture crosses the region. This may
  be the last meaningful rain chance until late in the weekend.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect today for portions of Puerto Rico.
  Heat will remain a concern into the weekend.

- Fire weather concerns will increase toward the end of the week
  and into the weekend as conditions become much drier and
  breezier.

- Saharan dust will persist, while strengthening winds and
  building seas will lead to increasingly hazardous marine and
  coastal conditions into the weekend.

- Forecast uncertainty increases late this weekend into early
  next week as AL92 could approach the northeastern Caribbean,
  bringing increasing rain and thunderstorm potential. It remains
  too early to determine what impacts, if any, may occur.


&&

.Short Term(Today through Friday)...
Issued at 205 AM AST Wed Aug 12 2026

A tropical wave and its final surge of moisture will cross the
region today. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue this
morning and spread across the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
through the day. Localized heavy rainfall, lightning, and gusty
winds are possible. Heat will remain the main hazard, with a Heat
Advisory in effect for portions of Puerto Rico.

Behind the wave, much drier and more stable air will become
established Thursday and persist Friday, while the Atlantic ridge
strengthens the easterly trade winds. Very little rainfall is
expected through the end of the workweek, and thunderstorms are
not anticipated. The sharp decrease in humidity, stronger winds,
and continued drying of already stressed fuels will substantially
increase fire weather concerns Thursday into the weekend.

A band of Saharan dust will move away this morning as moisture
from the tropical wave crosses the area, but another dust plume
will arrive this evening. Periods of moderate concentrations are
expected into Thursday, followed by lower concentrations through
Friday.


&&

.Long Term(Saturday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 205 AM AST Wed Aug 12 2026

No major changes to the long-term forecast or the uncertainty
regarding AL92. Breezy to locally windy east to east-northeast winds
will continue into the weekend, with gusts potentially affecting
unsecured outdoor items across exposed coastal and higher-elevation
areas. Winds could approach advisory levels at times. A relatively
dry air mass and lower concentrations of Saharan dust will also
persist, with only brief passing showers expected. Heat and fire
weather concerns may continue under the dry and breezy pattern.

Forecast uncertainty increases considerably late this weekend into
early next week as AL92 moves westward to west-northwestward across
the tropical Atlantic. A wetter pattern with increasing showers and
thunderstorms, along with greater lightning and flooding risks, is
possible. However, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the
system`s track, intensity, timing, and any direct or indirect impacts
to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Continue to monitor NHC
and local forecasts.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 205 AM AST Wed Aug 12 2026

SHRA/ISOLD TSRA possible at TIST/TISX and E PR terminals this
morning, then mainly across PR this aftn, especially near TJSJ and TJBQ.
Brief MVFR or lower CIG/VSBY possible in heavier activity. Convection
diminishes this eve as drier air arrives. HZ may reduce VIS to around
6SM at times. E winds 10-15 kt early, increasing to 15-20 kt after
13Z with higher gusts. E winds 20-30 kt BLO FL100.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 205 AM AST Wed Aug 12 2026

Lingering moisture will support showers and isolated thunderstorms
across the regional waters today. Marine conditions will deteriorate
toward the end of the week as easterly winds strengthen and seas
build, resulting in hazardous conditions for small craft. Conditions
could deteriorate further late this weekend into early next week
depending on the development and track of AL92.


&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 205 AM AST Wed Aug 12 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents continues today for most exposed
beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Strengthening
easterly winds and building seas will lead to increasingly hazardous
coastal conditions, with a high risk of life-threatening rip
currents expected toward the end of the week and into the weekend.
Beachgoers should also remain alert for showers and isolated
thunderstorms today.

Coastal conditions could deteriorate further late this weekend into
early next week depending on the development and track of AL92. It
remains too early to determine what impacts, if any, may occur.


&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM AST this afternoon
     for PRZ001>005-007-008-010-011.

VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

EVE...CVB/MRR
MID...ICP

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion