Your Number One Source for Real-Time Puerto Rico Weather & Hurricane Tracking Updates

694
FXCA62 TJSJ 280645
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
245 AM AST Wed Oct 28 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 238 AM AST Wed Oct 28 2026

* Exceptionally high tides will continue today, with localized
  flooding across vulnerable areas anticipated, mostly across
  northern Puerto Rico.

* High Rip Current Risk will continue today for northern Puerto Rico
  and Culebra, while a moderate risk continue for Vieques and for
  the Virgin Islands.

* Hot and humid conditions will persist, mostly affecting urban and
  low-elevated areas across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

* Showers will taper off later in the morning along southwestern
  Puerto Rico. Additional showers are expected in the afternoon
  along the interior and the northwest.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Friday)...
Issued at 238 AM AST Wed Oct 28 2026

The night was cloudy, with showers affecting the southwestern
municipalities of Puerto Rico. Showers and thunderstorms were
widespread across the Mona Channel. The rest of the area was mostly
clear, but a few showers did move across the vicinity of the Virgin
Islands. Temperatures dropped to the 70s in Puerto Rico and hovered
around 80 degrees in the Virgin Islands. Showers are expected to
gradually taper off across western Puerto Rico around mid-morning,
allowing for skies to continue to clear out.

High pressure northeast of the Caribbean maintain the steering flow
from the southeast at nearly 10 knots. Just west of Puerto Rico,
moisture is being pulled from the south. This has been creating
unsettled weather conditions across the Mona Channel. While there
drier air to the east of the forecast area, leftover moisture and
diurnal heating should be enough for convection. As a result,
showers are expected to redevelop along the interior and west. The
risk of flooding is low, but localized urban flooding cannot be
ruled out. Lightning is expected as well with the afternoon storms.
By the end of the week, upper level trough moves from the west.
While this should usually result in unsettled conditions, mid-level
dry air entrainment may limit shower potential.

In terms of heat, 925 mb temperatures are expected to remain nearly
two standard deviation above normal, which would normally translate
into a moderate heat risk. However, due to the current cloud desk
moving into the region, heating could delay a little. While the Heat
Advisory was held for now, the users are advised to stay tuned
for updates during the mid-morning hours.

&&

.Long Term(Saturday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 238 AM AST Wed Oct 28 2026

Moist and unstable conditions are forecast to start the long term
period. Moisture will continue moving over the local area,
maintaining PWAT values above 2 inches for most of the period. A
surface high over the Atlantic will result in an easterly flow to
start the period, before becoming more southeasterly to start the
next week and continue throughout the period. Mid-level drier air is
forecast to persist Saturday, before becoming less pronounced Sunday
onwards. An upper trough will be mainly west of the region to start
the period, however some uncertainty persists with model guidance
now suggesting that the upper trough will move away from the region
early next week. However, guidance shows low- to mid-level moisture
increasing as the period continues.  The trough will support through
at least the weekend, cool mid-level temperatures (-6 to -7 C),
steep lapse rates, and upper-level divergence, factors that promote
cloud development and support deeper convection over the region. 500
mb temperatures will warm up somewhat to around -6C during the
workweek. Nocturnal and morning showers and t-storms are expected
mainly over the weekend, especially across the U.S. Virgin Islands
and eastern to southeastern Puerto Rico. With above normal moisture
persisting, afternoon convection will focus primarily over interior,
western, and northwestern Puerto Rico, with streamers also
developing from El Yunque and the local islands. Heavy rainfall
totals may trigger urban and small stream flooding. Additionally, t-
storms may produce frequent lightning and gusty winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 238 AM AST Wed Oct 28 2026

Passing SHRA expected across the Caribbean and Mona
Passage through 12-13Z, then rain should dissipate. TSRA expected to
develop after 17Z across the Cordillera Central and NW PR, causing
mountain obscuration and periods of reduced VIS and low ceiling for
TJBQ. SHRA will form in the vicinity of TJSJ, from 17-21Z. Winds
will be from the SE AT 8-13 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 238 AM AST Wed Oct 28 2026

The latest nearshore buoys continue to report subsiding seas, as the
long-period northerly swell continues to diminish today. However,
seas between 4 to 6 feet can be expected across Atlantic offshore
and coastal waters, including the Monday Passage; small craft must
continue to exercise caution. A surface high pressure over the
central Atlantic will continue to promote moderate to locally fresh
east-to-southeasterly winds across the region for the next several
days. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move the Caribbean
waters and local passages today, bringing gusty winds and lightning,
leading to locally hazardous conditions for small craft.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 238 AM AST Wed Oct 28 2026

Beach conditions should gradually improve today, as the long-period
northerly swell diminishes. Nevertheless, breaking waves between 5
and 7 feet across northern-exposed beaches of the islands could lead
to life-threatening rip currents. Therefore, the high rip current
risk continues for the beaches along western to northeast Puerto
Rico through this afternoon. Residents and visitors are encouraged
to heed the advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags and signs.
Although the risk will become moderate over the next few days,
beachgoers must still exercise caution as life-threatening rip
currents are possible along the surf zone. Besides rip currents,
extreme high tides will continue today, peaking up to 2 feet during
the morning. This combined with the fading swell could lead to
localized minor coastal flooding across vulnerable coastal areas.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for PRZ001-002-005-
     008-010-012.

VI...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM AST early this morning for
     VIZ001.

AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ERG
LONG TERM....MRR
MARINE/BEACH...MNG

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion