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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)
995 FXCA62 TJSJ 241753 AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 153 PM AST Fri Jul 24 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 143 PM AST Fri Jul 24 2026 * Isolated showers and thunderstorms will result in ponding of water across roadways and poorly drained areas across western Puerto Rico this afternoon. * Moderate to high concentrations of Saharan Dust will continue to spread across the islands for the rest of today through Saturday. Sensitive groups must follow medical recommendations. * A more vigorous tropical wave is forecast from late Sunday into Monday, increasing the potential for shower activity and flooding potential. * The moderate risk of rip currents continues across locally exposed beaches this weekend and early next week.&& .Short Term(This evening through Sunday)... Issued at 143 PM AST Fri Jul 24 2026 Drier conditions prevailed across the area during the morning hours, as shown by the 24/12Z TJSJ sounding with a PWAT of 1.29 inches and surface winds out of the east, leading to mostly sunny skies across the local islands. By around 11 AM to noon, some cloudiness developed in a streamer pattern affecting eastern sections of Puerto Rico. An increase in moisture was observed by the GOES-derived satellite precipitable water, with values rising from 1.3 to 1.5 inches and gradually increasing the potential for shower development across the local waters and land areas. Maximum temperatures peaked in the upper 80s across coastal areas and in the mid-80s along mountain areas. Surface winds remained from the east at 15 mph or less, with gusty conditions, especially near the coastal areas. For the rest of the afternoon and into tonight, as a weak tropical wave moves across the area, the moisture field will cross the local islands and increase overall low-level moisture. These conditions, in combination with suspended Saharan dust particles trapping heat, will enhance warm conditions across the region, resulting in warmer night temperatures and some passing showers. The latest guidance from the high-resolution models suggests passing shower activity from 2 AM through the day on Saturday. For Saturday, surface winds will persist from the east as the surface high pressure remains the dominant feature, holding moderate easterly winds. A decrease in Saharan dust particles is expected as the major concentration moves further westward into the western Atlantic, leaving the islands only with some minimal to trace concentrations for the rest of the day. At mid levels, colder temperatures at 500 MB will remain present as an upper low stays north of the area, maintaining enough instability for localized afternoon showers. Sunday is a transition day into a more active and wet weather pattern across the region. At the surface, a significant increase in moisture is forecast due to the approach of a more vigorous tropical wave. Concurrently, the surface high pressure will build further, resulting in winds shifting more from the east-southeast and a slight decrease in wind speeds across the local area. Aloft, the cut-off low will dig into the western Caribbean, positioning the favorable, divergent side of the upper system directly over the region. This dynamic setup will significantly enhance atmospheric instability and moisture convergence, increasing the overall potential for widespread showers and thunderstorm development, leading to a limited-to-elevated flood threat, particularly for western Puerto Rico.&& .Long Term(Monday through next Thursday)... Issued at 143 PM AST Fri Jul 24 2026 Current model guidance suggests a wetter pattern at the beginning of next work week. The combination of a tropical wave and an upper- level low will bring increased chances of rain. As the tropical wave moves across the region, PWAT values are expected to increase to above-normal levels through at least Tuesday, exceeding 2 inches, which is around the 75th percentile for this time of year. Aloft, an upper-level low positioned over the islands through Monday will maintain lower 250-mb heights and cooler 500-mb temperatures (around -8 to -9C), with both remaining near to below seasonal normals. This pattern will increase the potential for thunderstorm development. Moisture will also increase in the mid and upper levels, creating a more unstable environment across the islands. As a result, Monday is expected to be the day with better dynamics for the development of showers and thunderstorms. Additionally, winds are forecast to remain very light that day, resulting in slow-moving showers and thunderstorms capable of producing higher rainfall accumulations. As a result, the flood threat will remain elevated on Monday across the interior and western portions of Puerto Rico, with the potential for flooding in urban areas, along roads, in small streams, and in washes. A more limited flood threat is expected across eastern Puerto Rico and the USVI. By Tuesday and Wednesday, the upper-level low will shift slightly west of the area, allowing some stability aloft, as reflected by rising heights and temperatures. At the same time, Atlantic high pressure will gradually strengthen, causing easterly to southeasterly winds to increase and become breezy to locally windy. However, moisture content will remain above average and, when combined with local effects and diurnal heating, will likely support overnight and morning windward showers, followed by afternoon convection across the interior and western portions of Puerto Rico. The flood threat during these days is currently expected to be more limited and mainly confined to northwestern Puerto Rico, with ponding of water on roads and in poorly drained areas being the primary concern. This forecast will continue to be refined with each update as confidence increases. Drier air will begin filtering into the area from Wednesday night/ Thursday through Friday, accompanied by some Saharan dust. As PWAT values decrease to near seasonal levels, isolated trade wind showers will continue due to the presence of patches of moisture embedded in the trades, but overall shower coverage is expected to be more limited than during the previous days. Throughout most of the forecast period, available moisture and southeasterly wind flow, particularly from Wednesday onward, will maintain warm to hot conditions, resulting in an elevated heat risk across coastal and urban areas.&& .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 143 PM AST Fri Jul 24 2026 VFR conditions will persist across all TAF sites during the period. HZ will continue to result in limited VIS at least until 25/10Z for eastern-located sites and then for the rest of the sites. VCSH and -VCTS are possible from 24/19Z to 24/21Z near the vicinity of TJBQ, and after that at 25/06Z across TIST & TISX. Winds will continue from the E at 15 knots and gusty winds up to 25 knots, decreasing at 24/23Z and increasing again at 25/13Z from the E. && .MARINE... Issued at 143 PM AST Fri Jul 24 2026 A broad surface high pressure will maintain moderate to locally fresh east-southeast winds through at least Saturday, becoming moderate on Sunday. Moderate to high concentrations of Saharan dust will continue to spread across the region for the rest of today, slightly reducing visibility, diminishing on Saturday. Shower activity should gradually increase this afternoon as a weak tropical wave moves across the region. A vigorous tropical wave is expected to reach the northeastern Caribbean from late Sunday into Monday, increasing moisture and the potential for thunderstorm activity over the local Caribbean waters, which will result in localized hazardous marine conditions. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 143 PM AST Fri Jul 24 2026 The beach forecast remains on track. The moderate risk of rip currents continues across northern and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra, and St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands, with low risk elsewhere. Although there is a moderate risk, beachgoers must exercise caution as life-threatening rip currents remain possible along the surf zone. As winds weaken by Sunday, the risk may be lowered in some areas, though beachgoers must remain aware of isolated life-threatening rip currents in the vicinity of groins, jetties, reefs, and piers. As winds gradually strengthen, the moderate risk should spread across the islands and persist for the rest of the forecast period. Besides rip currents, beachgoers should continue to monitor weather conditions, as afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms may move near coastal areas of western Puerto Rico, including eastern Puerto Rico on Sunday and Monday. In addition, moderate to high concentrations will linger across the region through Saturday, deteriorating air quality. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 143 PM AST Fri Jul 24 2026 Surface conditions remained on the drier side as a drier airmass dominated the region resulting in RH values dropping into the low 50s across stations along the southern coastal plains. For tomorrow surface winds will remain from the east peaking up at around 10 AM AST up to 15 knots and slightly high in localized areas. RH values for tomorrow will range between the mid 50s to upper 60s due to some moisture associated with the previous tropical wave. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...LIS LONG TERM....YZR AVIATION...LIS
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