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269
FXCA62 TJSJ 072019
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
138 PM AST Sat Mar 7 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 134 PM AST Sat Mar 7 2026

* Breezy to locally windy conditions will continue across Puerto
  Rico and the USVI by mid next week. Unsecured and outdoor objects
  may blow around.

* Fresh to strong winds will continue to result in choppy to rough
  seas and a high risk of rip currents across the region. Small
  Craft Advisories and Rip Current Statements continue in effect
  through at least Monday.

* A wet and unstable weather pattern will increase shower activity
  and the potential of isolated thunderstorms across the US Virgin
  Islands and Puerto Rico through the upcoming workweek.


&&

.Short Term(This evening through Monday)...
Issued at 134 PM AST Sat Mar 7 2026

Todays weather across Puerto Rico was dominated by variable and
breezy conditions, with the most significant impacts occurring
during the morning hours. A line of showers associated with a
Culebra streamer developed and moved across portions of eastern
Puerto Rico, producing periods of moderate rainfall across the San
Juan metropolitan area. Rainfall totals generally ranged between
0.50 and 1.60 inches, which led to ponding of water on roads and
poorly drainage areas, prompting the issuance of a Flood Advisory.
Overall, the eastern half of Puerto Rico experienced the majority of
the rainfall activity during the morning, while the western half
remained mostly calm with cloudy skies. By the afternoon hours,
showers started to develop over the western sections of PR.

Looking ahead, the latest model guidance continues to suggest 500 mb
humidity values around the 75th percentile or above normal, along
with 500 mb temperatures between -8C and -10C. This combination
indicates continued mid-level instability, which will support
periods of shower development through the short-term period,
particularly through Monday. Given this pattern, there is a low to
moderate probability of additional passing showers, mainly across
eastern and windward sectors. While widespread flooding is not
anticipated, localized ponding of water remains the primary rainfall
hazard, especially where showers repeatedly move over the same
locations. From Sunday onward, conditions are expected to gradually
stabilize and return closer to seasonal norms as a strong surface
high over the western to central Atlantic becomes the dominant
weather feature. This high will maintain a tight pressure gradient
across the northeastern Caribbean, resulting in breezy to locally
windy easterly trade winds. Sustained winds will generally range
from 15 to 20 mph with gusts occasionally reaching 25 to 30 mph,
resulting in a low but locally elevated probability of minor wind
impacts, particularly where unsecured outdoor items could be blown
around or minor tree limb movement occurs.

&&

.Long Term(Tuesday through next Friday)...
Issued at 134 PM AST Sat Mar 7 2026

An upper-level trough is expected to remain near the northeastern
Caribbean through much of the upcoming workweek, with a
persistent jet aloft supporting a more unstable atmospheric
profile than typically observed in early March. Model guidance
suggests that 500 mb temperatures will fall below climatological
values, while mid-level lapse rates remain near or slightly above
normal. At the same time, deep-layer moisture is forecast to
gradually increase, with precipitable water values generally
ranging from 1.4 to 1.75 inches, especially on Thursday and
Friday. These conditions will weaken the trade wind inversion and
support deeper convective development across the region.

At the surface, building high pressure across the Atlantic will
promote breezy to locally windy east-to-northeast winds through
Thursday, gradually easing late in the week. Embedded moisture
patches moving within this flow will result in passing showers
across windward areas of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands
during the nighttime and morning hours, followed by locally driven
convection across interior and western Puerto Rico each
afternoon.

If this scenario materializes, residents and visitors across
Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands can expect occasional breezy
to locally windy conditions, along with periods of moderate to
locally heavy rainfall. These showers could result in ponding of
water on roadways and in poorly drained areas, as well as
localized urban and small-stream flooding. Additionally, isolated
thunderstorms may produce lightning and brief periods of gusty
winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 134 PM AST Sat Mar 7 2026

Mostly VFR conds thru the period across all TAF sites. Variable
winds btwn 15-20 kt with gusts higher than 30 kt through 07/23Z.
VCSH possible over TJPS and TJBQ after 07/16Z through 07/22Z. VCSH
could affect TIST, TISX, TSJU terminals through the overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 134 PM AST Sat Mar 7 2026

No major changes were introduced to the marine forecast. A surface
trough over the region will continue to produce isolated to
scattered showers over the local Atlantic and Caribbean waters,
including passages. Small craft operators should remain weather
alert as isolated thunderstorms over Caribbean waters and the Mona
passage this afternoon into the evening. A series of high-pressure
systems across the Atlantic will maintain fresh to locally strong
east-northeasterly winds throughout the forecast period, resulting
in choppy to rough seas across most regional waters and local
passages. Local buoys reported seas between 5 and 7 feet and wind
gusts up to 25 - 26 kt, while scatterometer observations show winds
between 20 and 25 mph across most waters. Small Craft Advisories
remain in effect through at least Tuesday, although they are likely
to be extended again. Smaller vessels are strongly advised to avoid
navigating in these hazardous conditions.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 134 PM AST Sat Mar 7 2026

Hazardous beach conditions will persist across the islands as trade
winds continue to generate breezy to windy conditions across
regional waters and passages. As mentioned in the Marine section,
seas remain between 5 and 7 feet and gusts up to 26 kt, while
scatterometer scans show 20 to 25 kt. Additionally, model guidance
suggests 6 to 8 feet across local Atlantic waters through at least
Tuesday. Given the current conditions and guidance, the Rip Current
Statement remains in effect for the northern and eastern beaches of
Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands through
at least Monday. Residents and visitors are urged to monitor
conditions closely and strictly adhere to the advice of beach
patrols, flag systems, and posted signs. While a moderate risk
continues elsewhere for the next several days, all beachgoers should
exercise caution, as life-threatening rip currents remain possible
along the surf zone. Beach conditions should gradually improve by
mid next week.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for PRZ001-002-
005-008-012-013.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for VIZ001-002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight AST Tuesday night for
     AMZ711.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon AST Monday for AMZ712-716-723-
     726-733-741.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for AMZ735.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MMC
LONG TERM...CAM
MARINE/BEACH...MNG

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion