880 FXCA62 TJSJ 220837 AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 437 AM AST Tue Oct 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Warm weather persists mostly due to southeasterly flow. An area of drier air is moving into the area, but will soon be followed by another area of moisture Wednesday. A gradual cooling trend is expected after Wednesday that should continue as a cold front approaches from the northwest Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday... Showers and thunderstorms were observed during the overnight hours, mostly over the local Caribbean and Atlantic waters. However, some of this activity reached the southern and southeastern portions of Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Doppler radar estimated rainfall accumulations of less than 0.5 inches across these areas. Overall, warm conditions were seen across the region with lows in the low 80s along the coastal and urban areas of the islands, and from the low to mid 70s in the higher elevations. This activity is expected to continue through the morning. Relatively drier air will move into the area today accompanied by light to moderate concentrations of Saharan dust particles. Despite of the drier air filtering into the region, showers and thunderstorms are anticipated, once again, across the interior and northwestern portions of Puerto Rico due to the combination of daytime warming and local effects. By tonight into Wednesday, tropical moisture will return as a broad moisture field associated with a tropical wave approaches the area from the east. Precipitable water values of approximately 2.0 inches will remain across the area for the rest of the forecast period. Therefore, there is the potential to observe showers and thunderstorm activity across the interior, northwestern PR and the San Juan metro area each day. By Thursday a low pressure located over the western Atlantic will move north of the region. The associated cold front is forecast to deepen approach the islands by Thursday night. A prefrontal trough will enhance the potential for another round of convective activity. With the expected rains, there is the potential to observe minor flooding in urban areas and small streams and quick river rises. Temperatures will continue to rise over the next few days in the islands. For today, highs may reach the low to mid 90s along the coastal and urban areas. Therefore, San Juan could register our 44th consecutive days with temperatures 90 or more degrees Fahrenheit. Residents and visitors are encouraged to take extra precautions when outside. .LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday... The pre-frontal trough will move into the area Friday and Friday night and merge with the cold front sagging south toward the area on Sunday night. High pressure will move into the Atlantic waters from the southeastern United States on Monday and cause the cold front to consolidate just north of the forecast area. On Tuesday and Wednesday this front is currently forecast to move into the area with cooler air. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) VFR conds are expected to prevail at all TAF sites through the forecast period. However, brief period of MVFR conds will remain possible at TJSJ/TJBQ due to SHRA/TSRA through 22/22-23Z. ESE winds between 8 to 14 knots to continue with sea breeze variations and higher gusts through 22/23. No major hazard is expected at this time. HZ due to Saharan dust is expected through today, but VSBY should remain P6SM. && .MARINE...Seas are still running 4 to 6 feet in the Atlantic waters with northerly swell of 3 feet. Seas will generally diminish through Friday. No small craft advisories are expected this week. && .BEACH FORECAST...A moderate risk of rip currents is expected on coasts with a northern exposure through Friday as waves heights diminish. As seas build again, a high risk of rip currents may reappear on the north-central coast of Puerto Rico Saturday. && .CLIMATE...Excessive warmth and high humidities persist. Saint Croix tied their record high yesterday and San Juan tied their record warm minimum. There are some indications that it could be even warmer on Wednesday. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...Heat Advisory until 4 PM AST this afternoon for PRZ001>003-005- 007-008-010>012. VI...Heat Advisory until 4 PM AST this afternoon for VIZ002. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GRS LONG TERM/MARINE...WS
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