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023
FXCA62 TJSJ 011737
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
137 PM AST Sun Mar 1 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 133 PM AST Sun Mar 1 2026

* Breezy to windy conditions will continue across Puerto Rico and
  the U.S. Virgin Islands throughout the week. Under these
  conditions, unsecured items could blow around.

* Fresh to strong winds are producing choppy to rough seas across
  the Offshore Atlantic and Caribbean waters, as well as in local
  passages. Small craft operators should continue to exercise
  caution. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in
  hazardous conditions.

* Life-threatening rip currents are possible at most local beaches
  throughout the week. Currently, the rip current risk is
  moderate, but it is forecast to become high by midweek as winds
  and seas increase. Residents and visitors should avoid swimming
  at unguarded beaches.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 133 PM AST Sun Mar 1 2026

Cloud cover remained minimal during the morning, with mostly clear
skies across much of the region. Only a few passing low-level clouds
were observed across eastern Puerto Rico and Culebra, embedded
within the brisk east-southeasterly flow. The limited cloud
development also aid to no shower activity across the islands in the
morning hours. Overall, fair weather prevailed, with windy
conditions persisting across the islands through much of the morning
and into the afternoon. According to unofficial weather stations,
sustained winds ranged between 20 and 22 mph, with gusts frequently
reaching 25 to 30 mph, particularly across coastal areas and exposed
locations. The strongest gusts were observed along eastern and
southern Puerto Rico, as well as across Culebra and portions of the
U.S. Virgin Islands.

For tonight, mostly stable conditions will remain in place as a
broad surface high-pressure system across the Atlantic Basin extends
into the Caribbean, and a significant dry air mass with precipitable
water values of 0.79, as shown in the GOES Satellite-derived
Imagery, moves in, eroding moisture and limiting showers. On Monday,
this broad surface high pressure will maintain a tight pressure
gradient across the region, resulting in moderate to locally strong
east-southeasterly winds through tonight and into Monday. Under this
pattern, the islands will continue to experience passing patches of
shallow moisture, with precipitable water values near climatological
levels (1.23 in), moving in and out of the area, promoting brief,
fast-moving showers at times, mainly across windward and coastal
sections. Despite these passing showers, overall conditions will
remain fairly stable. At the mid levels, warmer temperatures around
500 mb will support a stable atmospheric profile aloft, limiting
vertical development and reducing the potential for widespread or
organized convection. On Tuesday, a similar weather pattern is
expected to persist, with the strong, broad surface high pressure
system extending upward through approximately 700 mb. This will
continue to promote windy conditions across the local islands.
Sustained winds are forecast to range from 15 to 20 mph, with higher
gusts likely, particularly along coastal areas and at higher
elevations. The combination of a tight pressure gradient and a
relatively dry, stable mid-level environment will favor mainly fair
skies, with occasional passing showers embedded within the trade
wind flow. Overall, breezy to windy conditions will remain the
dominant feature of the forecast, with minimal shower activity.

&&

.Long Term(Wednesday through next Saturday)...
Issued at 133 PM AST Sun Mar 1 2026

By midweek, a series of high-pressure systems will remain over the
Atlantic, maintaining a prevailing northeasterly wind flow
throughout the forecast period. The pressure gradient across the
region will tighten, resulting in breezy to windy conditions.
Consequently, winds will be the primary weather concern during the
long-term period. Wind risk levels are expected to fluctuate from
limited to elevated, particularly along coastal areas of the
islands. Residents are advised to secure loose outdoor objects, as
items may be displaced or damaged by strong winds.

The latest model guidance indicates that moisture content will
remain fragmented and variable on Wednesday and Thursday,
fluctuating between near-seasonal levels and slightly above normal
as patches of moisture move within the trade wind flow. Precipitable
water values are forecast to range between 1.20 and 1.60 inches.
This pattern will support frequent passing showers, especially
during the overnight and morning hours across windward areas,
followed by limited afternoon convection over interior and western
Puerto Rico each day. Showers are expected to be fast-moving,
reducing the flood risk. From Thursday night into Friday, moisture
levels and upper-level dynamics are expected to become more
favorable as reflected in higher rain chances, potentially leading
to an increase in the frequency or intensity of showers Friday into
the weekend. Model guidance suggest PWAT values will become more
stable, around 1.6 inches each day. Additionally, moisture slightly
increase into the mid-levels of the atmosphere. Although strong
winds should limit rainfall accumulation and reduce flood potential,
current data supports a limited flood threat for eastern Puerto Rico
on Friday morning. Showers may result in ponding of water in areas
of poor drainage. Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, mostly sunny to
partly cloudy skies are expected to prevail, with passing showers
primarily during the nighttime and early morning hours. Winds will
also remain a primary hazard throughout the long-term period across
the islands.

The 925 mb temperature outlook suggests temperatures will be near
the average for this time of the year based on climatological
data.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 133 PM AST Sun Mar 1 2026

VFR conditions will persist across all TAF sites, with mainly a few
clouds moving through the area under an E-SE flow. Ceilings are
expected to remain well above 3,000 feet, with good visibility
prevailing across the terminals. Windy conditions will continue,
with sustained winds around 12 to 15 knots and occasional higher
gusts, particularly at coastal exposed terminals. Winds are expected
to remain up to 15 kn through approximately 01/23Z, gradually
decreasing, before increasing again around 02/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 133 PM AST Sun Mar 1 2026

A broad surface high pressure across most of the Atlantic basin will
continue to tighten the local pressure gradient, promoting fresh to
locally strong east-southeast winds through midweek. Although this
high will remain in place, another surface high will build over the
western Atlantic on Monday and continue to migrate toward the
central Atlantic through Thursday, sustaining fresh to strong winds.
Expect winds to become east-northeasterly from Wednesday onwards.
These conditions will maintain choppy to rough seas across the
regional waters throughout the week, especially across the Atlantic
and Caribbean Offshore waters and local passages. Small craft
operators should continue to exercise caution across all local
waters.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 133 PM AST Sun Mar 1 2026

Breezy conditions will persist throughout the week. The breezy to
locally windy conditions will continue to result in choppy to rough
seas, increasing the risk of life-threatening rip currents across
all beaches of PR (except the west coast) and the U.S. Virgin
Islands. Therefore, a moderate risk of rip currents is expected to
persist across much of the local beaches of the islands. Life-
threatening rip currents remain possible, particularly near piers,
jetties, and reef channels.

Looking ahead, confused seas due to fresh to strong trade winds and
a northeast to easterly swell will likely further deteriorate
coastal conditions and potentially increase the risk of dangerous
rip currents, particularly along north and east-facing beaches
of the islands from midweek onwards.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM AST Monday for AMZ711-723-733-
     741.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIS
LONG TERM....YZR
AVIATION...LIS

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion