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430
FXCA62 TJSJ 161805
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
205 PM AST Mon Feb 16 2026

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 200 PM AST Mon Feb 16 2026

* Afternoon showers are expected to continue mainly over NW PR
  today, where ponding of water on roads and minor flooding are
  the main concerns.

* Lighter and southeasterly winds are expected on Tuesday,
  promoting warmer temperatures than previous days.

* Small craft advisory conditions, life-threatening rip currents
  and possible high surf conditions are expected on Thursday and
  Friday.

* In the U.S. Virgin Islands, quick passing showers will continue
  mainly at night and in the morning, with life-threatening rip
  currents expected late in the week.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 200 PM AST Mon Feb 16 2026

Sunny to partly cloudy skies were observed across the islands
today. Passing showers were noted across eastern PR during the
morning and early afternoon hours, and streamers were developing
downwind of the USVI early in the afternoon. For the rest of this
afternoon, locally induced showers are expected to develop over
portions of the interior and northwestern PR. High temperatures
were in the mid 80s across the lower elevations of the islands to
the upper 70s and low 80s across the higher elevations.

Steering winds are expected to relax and turn more from the
southeast on Tuesday, as a col area develops north of the region
in response to a front and associated pre-frontal trough moving
into the central Atlantic. However, winds are expected to turn
from the east quickly late Tuesday into Wednesday as surface high
pressure builds over the western Atlantic. In terms of moisture
content, the precipitable water is expected to fluctuate each day
between 1.20 and 1.50 inches. Therefore, the same weather pattern
is expected, with passing light showers moving at times across the
windward areas of the islands during the night, followed by
locally induced afternoon showers over portions of the western
interior of PR, which could last into the evening hours and spread
across the southwestern coastal areas due to the weak steering
winds, and colder than normal 500 mb temperatures due to the
proximity of an upper-level trough.

&&

.Long Term(Thursday through next Sunday)...

From prev discussion issued at 326 AM AST Mon Feb 16 2026

No major changes were introduced to the long-term forecast, as
mostly stable conditions are very likely by the latter part of the
week and early next week. A surface high pressure in the western
Atlantic will promote easterly winds through most of the period,
expected to intensify and migrate eastward, strengthening from the
southeast. Based on the deterministic guidance of the GFS and ECMWF,
PWAT values should remain seasonal to below climatological normal
(between 1.2 and 1.4 inches, low chance of 1.5 to 1.6 inches) due to
drier air filtering into the region. Confidence is increasing
between model solutions, as ensemble members show low variability
and are tending to lower moisture content across the CWA. In terms
of instability, the upper-level shortwave should gradually move away
from the region, with a mid-level ridge establishing over the
Bahamas and lingering through most of the period. Based on the
latest model guidance, the mid-level ridge will dominate most of the
weather conditions throughout the period, with slightly warmer-than-
normal 500 mb temperatures (between -5 and -6 degrees Celsius),
leading to a blocking pattern and resulting in stability aloft. A
seasonal weather pattern is expected to prevail, with isolated to
scattered showers moving over windward sections across the islands
during the night into the morning hours. Although the combination of
diurnal heating, local effects, and sea breeze convergence could
trigger afternoon convection, this should remain shallow, with
mainly puddles over the road and locally reduced visibility.
Additionally, strengthening winds should result in fast-moving
showers, lowering the chance of flooding. Hence, no flooding nor
lightning is expected during the long-term forecast.

With a southeasterly wind flow and the presence of a mid-level
ridge, model guidance continues to suggest warmer-than-normal
temperatures. Although theres a low chance of heat indices
exceeding 100 degrees Fahrenheit, maximum temperatures may reach the
low 90s in localized urban and coastal areas across the islands.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 200 PM AST Mon Feb 16 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals
during the next 24 hours. However, brief MVFR conds are possible
this afternoon at TJBQ due to SHRA, and -RA with BKN cigs btw
FL030-050 can be expected at TJSJ thru 16/20z. Mostly VCSH
overnight at TIST/TISX/TJSJ. The 16/12z TJSJ sounding indicated
E-ESE winds up to 16 kt blo FL050.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 200 PM AST Mon Feb 16 2026

A surface high pressure over the Central Atlantic will promote
moderate to locally fresh east to east-southeast winds today. On
Tuesday, lighter southeasterly winds are expected as a weak front
and pre-frontal trough moves mainly north of the region. From
Wednesday onward, winds turn once again from the east as a nearly
stationary surface high pressure builds from the western Atlantic
Hazardous seas, around 7 feet, are expected on Thursday and Friday due
to the arrival of a long-period northerly swell.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 200 PM AST Mon Feb 16 2026

There is a moderate risk of rip currents for the north facing
beaches of Puerto Rico, including Culebra, and St. Thomas. Similar
conditions are expected on Tuesday, and a low risk is expected
across all beaches on Wednesday as winds and seas diminish in
general. However, a long period northerly swell, around 7 feet at
13 seconds will increase the risk to high from Thursday into the
weekend across all northern beaches of PR and the northern USVI.
Therefore, life-threatening rip currents and high surf conditions
can be expected during the second part of the week.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DSR

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion