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677
FXCA62 TJSJ 100833
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
433 AM AST Tue Nov 10 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 343 AM AST Tue Nov 10 2026

- Locally induced afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms are
  expected to develop each day over the interior and northern
  sections of Puerto Rico.

- Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, fair weather conditions will
  prevail for most of the week. Warm to hot temperatures are
  expected with daily highs ranging from the upper 80s to low 90s.

- Northeasterly swells will maintain a high rip current risk for
  the north-facing beaches of Puerto Rico through late
  tonight/early Wednesday morning.

- Southerly winds will promote warm to hot conditions during the
  second part of the week.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Thursday)...
Issued at 343 AM AST Tue Nov 10 2026

Recent surface analyses and the latest global model guidance
indicate that surface high pressure will remain the dominant
synoptic feature over the western and central Atlantic through
Thursday. This positioning will maintain a moderate east to
southeast trade wind flow across the northeastern Caribbean. In
the lower levels, weak perturbations embedded within this
southeasterly flow will traverse the region, providing subtle
forcing. Recent satellite-derived moisture data and sounding
climatology highlight a humid airmass entrenched over the islands,
with precipitable water values generally hovering between 1.90
and 2.20 inches. Moisture levels will remain from normal to
slightly above normal, providing sufficient fuel for showers
today.

Although moisture content will fluctuate during the rest of the
period, a building ridge aloft should promote overall stable
conditions and drier air aloft. However, sufficient moisture at
the lower levels of the atmosphere will set the stage for a
fairly typical, diurnally driven precipitation pattern. During the
overnight and early morning hours, patches of low-level moisture
will be advected across coastal areas, bringing passing showers to
the U.S. Virgin Islands and the eastern and southeastern coastal
plains of Puerto Rico. By the afternoon hours, daytime heating
combined with local topographical effects and sea breeze
convergence will aid in more concentrated convective development
focused over the interior and western to northwestern quadrants of
Puerto Rico. While significant instability is not anticipated,
this afternoon convection can support localized heavy rainfall.
Consequently, isolated instances of urban and small stream
flooding, as well as minor water accumulation on roadways, will
remain the primary weather hazards each afternoon.

&&

.Long Term(Friday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 343 AM AST Tue Nov 10 2026

A mid-level ridge establishing over northeastern Caribbean late this
weekend should promote more stable conditions over the weekend. As a
result, warming temperatures at the mid-levels (500mb), with a 80%
chance of exceeding -6 degrees Celsius each afternoon until early
next weekend, could promote subsidence and stability aloft. In
addition, a surface high pressure will increase the local pressure
gradient, strengthening winds from the S-SE. This pattern will
extend into early next week, and while more stable conditions are
expected, low-level moisture and local effects should enhance shower
and isolated thunderstorm activity each afternoon mainly towards the
interior to northwest region, driven by a predominant S-SE wind
flow. Deeper convection is expected on Friday, with more shallow
convection expected for the rest of the period. However, the
probability of rainfall accumulations exceeding at least 0.5 inches
in 24 hours remain below 30% on Friday until Monday, suggesting that
we could see less intense downpours during this period. By Tuesday,
a disturbance will drag moisture into the islands, increasing the
chance of exceeding 0.5 inches of rainfall to 40-45%.

The highest flooding potential is expected on Friday, mainly towards
northwestern/northern Puerto Rico. This will pose a threat of
ponding of water over roadways and poorly drained areas, along with
isolated urban and small stream flooding.  Additionally, with a S-SE
wind flow, seasonal moisture content in the low-levels, and minimal
cloud cover could trigger hot and humid conditions, especially
during the weekend, likely to increase heat indices to levels that
affect most individuals sensitive to heat. Therefore, they are
encouraged to stay hydrated and cool during peak daytime heating
hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 343 AM AST Tue Nov 10 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals
during the next 24 hours. However, locally induced SHRA/TSRA may
develop in and around TJSJ/TJBQ btw 10/16-22z and cause tempo MVFR
conditions. Weak SSE winds up to 10 knots with sea breeze
variations expected aft 10/13z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 343 AM AST Tue Nov 10 2026

The northerly swell will continue to maintain seas of 4 to 5 feet
across the offshore Atlantic waters today. Meanwhile, another
northerly swell is expected to reach the Atlantic waters later
today, maintaining elevated seas across the Atlantic waters and
local passages through at least Wednesday. Elsewhere, seas across
the Caribbean waters will generally remain at 1 to 3 feet. Light to
gentle winds will prevail today before increasing to moderate from
Wednesday onward. Showers and isolated thunderstorms may produce
locally higher winds and seas.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 343 AM AST Tue Nov 10 2026

Energy from the ongoing northerly swell will continue to produce
hazardous swimming conditions along the northern exposed beaches of
Puerto Rico and Culebra. Another pulse of northerly swell is
expected to arrive later today, prolonging hazardous surf zone
conditions. Therefore, the high risk of rip currents has been
extended through at least early Wednesday morning for the affected
beaches. A moderate risk of rip currents will continue along the
beaches of Vieques and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Continue to monitor
the forecast for additional updates.

Thunderstorms will remain an additional beach hazard, particularly
during the afternoon hours. If thunder is heard, seek shelter
immediately.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ001-002-005-
     008-010-012.

VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...DSR
LONG TERM...JCP
BEACH/MARINE...CVB

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion