Atlantic Hurricane Season 2020 Storm Names

880
FXCA62 TJSJ 220837
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
437 AM AST Tue Oct 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm weather persists mostly due to southeasterly
flow. An area of drier air is moving into the area, but will soon
be followed by another area of moisture Wednesday. A gradual
cooling trend is expected after Wednesday that should continue as
a cold front approaches from the northwest Tuesday and Wednesday
of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...

Showers and thunderstorms were observed during the overnight hours,
mostly over the local Caribbean and Atlantic waters. However, some
of this activity reached the southern and southeastern portions of
Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Doppler radar estimated
rainfall accumulations of less than 0.5 inches across these areas.
Overall, warm conditions were seen across the region with lows in
the low 80s along the coastal and urban areas of the islands, and
from the low to mid 70s in the higher elevations. This activity is
expected to continue through the morning.

Relatively drier air will move into the area today accompanied by
light to moderate concentrations of Saharan dust particles. Despite
of the drier air filtering into the region, showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated, once again, across the interior and
northwestern portions of Puerto Rico due to the combination of daytime
warming and local effects. By tonight into Wednesday, tropical
moisture will return as a broad moisture field associated with a
tropical wave approaches the area from the east. Precipitable
water values of approximately 2.0 inches will remain across the
area for the rest of the forecast period. Therefore, there is the
potential to observe showers and thunderstorm activity across the
interior, northwestern PR and the San Juan metro area each day. By
Thursday a low pressure located over the western Atlantic will
move north of the region. The associated cold front is forecast to
deepen approach the islands by Thursday night. A prefrontal
trough will enhance the potential for another round of convective
activity. With the expected rains, there is the potential to
observe minor flooding in urban areas and small streams and quick
river rises.

Temperatures will continue to rise over the next few days in the
islands. For today, highs may reach the low to mid 90s along the
coastal and urban areas. Therefore, San Juan could register our 44th
consecutive days with temperatures 90 or more degrees Fahrenheit.
Residents and visitors are encouraged to take extra precautions
when outside.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...

The pre-frontal trough will move into the area Friday and Friday
night and merge with the cold front sagging south toward the area
on Sunday night. High pressure will move into the Atlantic waters
from the southeastern United States on Monday and cause the cold
front to consolidate just north of the forecast area. On Tuesday
and Wednesday this front is currently forecast to move into the
area with cooler air.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)

VFR conds are expected to prevail at all TAF sites through the
forecast period. However, brief period of MVFR conds will remain
possible at TJSJ/TJBQ due to SHRA/TSRA through 22/22-23Z. ESE winds
between 8 to 14 knots to continue with sea breeze variations and
higher gusts through 22/23. No major hazard is expected at this
time. HZ due to Saharan dust is expected through today, but VSBY
should remain P6SM.

&&

.MARINE...Seas are still running 4 to 6 feet in the Atlantic
waters with northerly swell of 3 feet. Seas will generally
diminish through Friday. No small craft advisories are expected
this week.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...A moderate risk of rip currents is expected on
coasts with a northern exposure through Friday as waves heights
diminish. As seas build again, a high risk of rip currents may
reappear on the north-central coast of Puerto Rico Saturday.

&&

.CLIMATE...Excessive warmth and high humidities persist. Saint
Croix tied their record high yesterday and San Juan tied their
record warm minimum. There are some indications that it could be
even warmer on Wednesday.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...Heat Advisory until 4 PM AST this afternoon for PRZ001>003-005-
     007-008-010>012.

VI...Heat Advisory until 4 PM AST this afternoon for VIZ002.

AM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GRS
LONG TERM/MARINE...WS

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion