244
FXCA62 TJSJ 021829
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
229 PM AST Mon Mar 2 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 214 PM AST Mon Mar 2 2026

* Breezy to windy conditions are expected across the islands through
  the rest of the week. Unsecured items could blow around.

* Fresh to strong winds producing choppy to rough seas, are expected
  to continue across the offshore Atlantic and Caribbean Waters, as
  well as in the local passages, where Small Craft Advisories are in
  effect. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in
  hazardous conditions.

* A moderate risk of rip currents will persist through late Tuesday
  across most of the local beaches. A high rip current risk is
  forecast by early Wednesday for the northern and eastern beaches
  of the islands as a northeast to easterly swell arrives and breezy
  to windy conditions persist.

* Hazy skies are likely through Tuesday due to low concentrations
  of Saharan Dust filtering into the region.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 214 PM AST Mon Mar 2 2026

For the rest of the short-term period, the primary weather feature
for Puerto Rico will be breezy to windy conditions driven by a
tight pressure gradient from a broad surface high over the central
Atlantic. These elevated winds, between 15 and 25 knots at the 925
mb level, will continue from the east-southeast before backing to
a more easterly direction by late Tuesday and to an east-
northeasterly direction by late Wednesday. The prevailing winds
will continuously steer intervals of patchy moisture and drier air
toward the islands. While fast-moving showers are expected across
the region, favoring the windward areas of the islands during the
night/early morning hours, brief afternoon showers could still
develop over western Puerto Rico.

The overall moisture content will remain relatively shallow during
this period, with precipitable water (PWAT) values fluctuating
between 1.10 and 1.70 inches as moisture patches move through the
area. Consistent with recent TJSJ upper air soundings showing
substantial dry air in the mid-to-upper levels, the forecast
soundings indicate that most of the available moisture will remain
confined below the 850 mb level. Furthermore, relatively warm
temperatures at the 500 mb level are expected to cap the
atmosphere and limit the vertical development of any showers.
Therefore, flood concerns are not anticipated from the expected
weather conditions. The low concentrations of Saharan Dust are
forecast to persist over the region on Tuesday before gradually
decreasing late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

&&

.Long Term(Thursday through next Sunday)...
Issued at 214 PM AST Mon Mar 2 2026

Over the long term, a strong high-pressure system will develop over
the western Atlantic, then shift and become anchored in the north-
central Atlantic. This will maintain a prevailing northeasterly wind
flow and a tight pressure gradient throughout the forecast period.
As a result, breezy to windy conditions will be a primary hazard,
with wind risk levels fluctuating between limited and elevated,
particularly along the coastal areas of the islands. Residents are
advised to secure loose outdoor objects, as strong winds may
displace or damage them. Also, windy conditions will lead to choppy
to rough seas and life-threatening rip currents.

The latest model guidance indicates that moisture levels will remain
fragmented and variable on Thursday, fluctuating between near-
seasonal and slightly above-normal values based on climatological
data, as patches of moisture move within the trade wind flow.
Precipitable water values are forecast to range between 1.30 and
1.65 inches. This pattern will support frequent passing showers,
especially during the overnight and morning hours across windward
areas, followed by afternoon convection over the interior and
western Puerto Rico each day. By Friday, moisture levels are
expected to stabilize as moisture moves in from the northeast,
potentially increasing the frequency or intensity of showers.
Although strong winds should limit rainfall accumulation and reduce
flood potential, current data suggests a limited flood threat for
eastern Puerto Rico in the mornings and for western Puerto Rico in
the afternoons. Showers may lead to ponding in areas with poor
drainage. Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, mostly sunny to partly
cloudy skies are expected, with passing showers primarily occurring
during the nighttime and early morning hours. Winds will also
remain the primary hazard throughout the long-term period across the
islands.

The temperature outlook indicates near-average temperatures for the
duration of the period. Daytime maximum temperatures are expected to
range from the low to mid-80s at lower elevations and from the mid-
70s at higher elevations. Overnight lows are expected to range from
the 70s to the 60s, respectively.

In summary, breezy to windy conditions, variable moisture levels,
and frequent passing showers are expected throughout the forecast
period, with localized flooding risks in some areas. The main
hazards will be focused on winds, marine, and beach conditions,
including rough seas and hazardous coastal conditions. Residents and
visitors should continue to monitor the forecast for updates.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 214 PM AST Mon Mar 2 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals
during the next 24 hours. However, passing trade wind showers are
expected to move at times across the USVI terminals and TJSJ/TJPS,
particularly during the evening hours. Winds will continue E-ESE
at 15-20 kt with stronger gusts, decreasing to 12-16 kt overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 214 PM AST Mon Mar 2 2026

Mariners can expect fresh to locally strong (20-25 kt) east-
southeast winds, which are forecast to shift and become east-
northeasterly by midweek as a new surface high pressure builds
over the Central Atlantic. These sustained winds will generate
choppy to rough seas across the regional waters, especially within
the Atlantic and Caribbean offshore waters and the local passages.


Due to the expected hazardous marine conditions, Small Craft
Advisories (SCAs) are in effect for all offshore waters and both
Anegada and Mona Passage due to seas up to 8 feet, and the
expected 20-25 kt winds. Additionally, the coastal waters are
expected to be included in the SCA in the upcoming days.
Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these hazardous
conditions.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 214 PM AST Mon Mar 2 2026

A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents will persist
across most local beaches to start the workweek, with the
exception of Puerto Rico`s west coast. However, coastal
conditions are expected to deteriorate further by Wednesday.
Confused seas driven by the strong trade winds, combined with the
arrival of a northeast to easterly wind swell, will likely elevate
the threat to a high risk of rip currents for the northern and
eastern beaches of the islands, through the end of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 214 PM AST Mon Mar 2 2026

Latest observations from Cabo Rojo indicate that conditions are
approaching Red Flag Conditions, with RH dropping to 53%, with
winds up 19 mph, and the KBDI was at 652. Fire and emergency
officials should be aware that weather conditions are becoming
more conducive for the ignition and spread of wildfires. Similar
conditions are expected through the workweek.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Thursday for AMZ711-723-733-
     741.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSR
LONG TERM...MRR
AVIATION...DSR
BEACH/MARINE...DSR
FIRE WEATHER...DSR

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion