683
FXCA62 TJSJ 030600
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
200 AM AST Fri Apr 3 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 200 AM AST Fri Apr 3 2026

* Life-threatening rip currents will continue at north- and east-
  facing beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands
  through early next week. While surf will gradually subside,
  hazardous coastal conditions will persist. Stay out of the water
  at high-risk areas.

* Hazardous seas will persist through early next week, with conditions
  remaining unfavorable for small craft across local waters.

* Showers and thunderstorms will develop each afternoon, becoming
  more widespread and stronger through the weekend and into early
  next week. Flooding risk will remain elevated, with locally
  higher impacts possible, especially across Puerto Rico.

* Breezy to locally windy conditions will continue across Puerto
  Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, with stronger gusts in exposed
  areas and near showers.


&&

.Short Term(Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 200 AM AST Fri Apr 3 2026

A breezy easterly to east-northeasterly flow will maintain a
pattern of frequent passing showers today through Saturday.
Showers that developed overnight have continued into the morning
across windward areas, with radar estimates indicating around a
quarter to half an inch of rainfall in some locations, with
isolated higher amounts. These showers have been frequent,
developing over local waters and moving inland with the flow, and
this pattern will continue at times through today and tonight,
mainly affecting northern and eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands.

With no well-defined trade wind cap in place, afternoon
convection will develop each day across interior and western
Puerto Rico, with isolated thunderstorms possible. Increasing
cloud cover at times may limit overall coverage, especially on
Saturday. However, showers and thunderstorms will be capable of
producing periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall, which may
lead to ponding of water and minor flooding, particularly where
activity repeats or soils remain saturated. Gusty winds and
lightning will be the main additional hazards. This pattern may
lead to brief but impactful weather changes, especially with
increased outdoor activity through the holiday weekend.

By Sunday, conditions become more favorable for stronger and more
efficient convection. Winds will turn from the east-southeast to
southeast, bringing a warmer and more humid airmass across the
region. This will reduce the typical trade wind shower pattern and
support more active afternoon development across interior and
western Puerto Rico. Where sunshine breaks through, showers and
thunderstorms may produce heavier rainfall and more localized
impacts. As a result, the risk of localized flooding will increase
and become more widespread, especially in areas experiencing
repeated activity or slower-moving cells.

Overall, the main hazards will include localized flooding from
periods of heavy rainfall, especially where showers and
thunderstorms repeat or soils remain saturated, along with gusty
winds and isolated thunderstorms capable of producing lightning
and brief heavy downpours. Flooding risk will remain elevated each
day, expanding in coverage on Sunday.


&&

.Long Term(Monday through Friday)...
Issued at 200 AM AST Fri Apr 3 2026

A warm and humid pattern remains on track across the northeastern
Caribbean through most of the upcoming week, supporting enhanced
afternoon convection and a limited to elevated flooding threat
across the local islands.

At the surface, a strong high-pressure system migrating from the
central to eastern Atlantic will maintain south to southeasterly
winds through mid-week. This flow will transport abundant tropical
moisture from the Caribbean Sea into the region, with precipitable
water (PWAT) values forecast between 1.90 and 2.00 inches
throughout the period. Under this pattern, isolated to scattered
showers are expected across eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands during the morning hours, followed by daily
afternoon convection across central, northern, and northwestern
Puerto Rico. Daytime heating and local effects will further
enhance shower and thunderstorm development. This pattern,
combined with high humidity, will elevate the risk of urban and
small stream flooding, as well as quick river rises.

As the week progresses, a mid- to upper-level shortwave trough
will support the development of a surface trough near Hispaniola,
enhancing moisture pooling across the region. By Wednesday, 500 mb
temperatures are forecast to drop to around -9C, increasing
instability aloft and supporting stronger thunderstorm
development. Temperatures are expected to trend warmer early in
the period, with 925 mb values rising above climatological normals
from Tuesday onward, further supporting afternoon convective
activity.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 200 AM AST Fri Apr 3 2026

SHRA dvlp ovr local waters and mv inland acrs windward/exposed
TAF sites ovrnght thru 03/14Z, brief MVFR psbl (cigs 020030, vsby
35SM). SHRA may cont at times thru the day, but less frequent aft
sunrise. TJPS less impacted early, SHRA psbl aft 03/17Z, then aftn
SHRA/isol TSRA dvlp ovr interior/SW PR, psbl impacting site with
brief MVFR/IFR and gusty winds. SHRA redevelop ovr windward sites
aft 03/22Z. Winds ENE 10 to 15 kt ovrnght, incr 15 to 20 kt g25 to
30 kt aft sunrise, breezy thru pd.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 200 AM AST Fri Apr 3 2026

Hazardous marine conditions will persist through the weekend and
into next week. A strong Atlantic high will maintain fresh to
locally strong winds, veering from northeasterly to easterly today
and east-southeasterly by the weekend. Combined with lingering
northeasterly swell, seas will remain choppy to rough, especially
across the Atlantic waters and local passages. Trade wind showers
will continue across the waters, with isolated to scattered
afternoon thunderstorms possible over coastal waters, mainly from
southwest to northwest Puerto Rico, drifting west with the flow.
Coverage may increase slightly over the weekend.


&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 200 AM AST Fri Apr 3 2026

Although the High Surf Advisory has expired and the northeasterly
swell is gradually subsiding, hazardous coastal conditions will
persist across the region. A high risk of rip currents will
continue, and life-threatening conditions are likely, particularly
along northern and eastern exposures through at least early next
week. While large breaking waves may become more isolated, rough
and choppy surf will continue due to persistent winds and residual
swell. Beachgoers and inexperienced swimmers should remain out of
the water. Avoid rocks, jetties, and breakwaters, where waves can
sweep individuals into the sea. Follow lifeguard guidance and
posted safety information.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 200 AM AST Fri Apr 3 2026

Hydrologic conditions will become increasingly favorable for
flooding impacts through the weekend, although uncertainty remains
regarding rainfall coverage and persistence. Flooding is not
expected to be widespread; however, an elevated risk of urban and
small stream flooding is anticipated, with isolated flash flooding
possible. Recent rainfall has resulted in saturated soils,
especially across eastern and northern Puerto Rico, which will
allow water to run off quickly and lead to rapid rises in streams
and rivers, including water surges (golpes de agua) in steep
terrain. A shift in the pattern will bring more afternoon activity
toward northwestern Puerto Rico, and the San Juan streamer could
still produce periods of rainfall across the metro area, posing a
localized flooding risk.


&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for PRZ001-002-
     005-008-010-012-013.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST early this morning for PRZ001-
     002-005-008-010-012-013.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for VIZ001-002.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST early this morning for VIZ001-
     002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST Sunday for AMZ711-712-716-
     723-741.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Saturday for AMZ726-742.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ICP
LONG TERM....CVB
AVIATION...ICP

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion