692
FXCA62 TJSJ 040811
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
411 AM AST Wed Feb 4 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 411 AM AST Wed Feb 4 2026

* Hazardous marine and beach conditions continue along the
  Atlantic coast and north and west-facing beaches in PR and the
  USVI, with life-threatening rip currents, dangerous breaking
  waves, and a risk of coastal flooding in low-lying areas.

* Periods of showers will continue today across Puerto Rico and the
  U.S. Virgin Islands as lingering frontal moisture and
  northeasterly winds promote moisture pooling, resulting in a
  limited to elevated flooding risk.

* Near-normal to slightly cooler temperatures persist through
  Thursday, with cool overnight lows in the mountains and valleys
  and seasonable daytime highs along the coast.

* Another northerly swell is expected this weekend into early next
  week, which may prolong or renew hazardous coastal and marine
  conditions.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Friday)...
Issued at 411 AM AST Wed Feb 4 2026

Hazardous coastal conditions were observed overnight across the
Atlantic Coastline and the north-and west-facing beaches due to
dangerous breaking waves and life-threatening rip currents. The
remnants of a frontal boundary promoted mostly cloudy skies and
showery weather across portions of PR`s northern half and the USVI
once again overnight. Winds were mainly from the northeast to east
to northeast at 15 to 20 mph with gusts between 25 and 35 mph.
Low temperatures were in the low 60s or even the upper 50s in the
mountains of PR, and in the low to mid 70s along the coast of PR
and the USVI.

The remnants of an old frontal boundary, combined with abundant
moisture, will continue to affect the northeastern Caribbean through
late tonight. Northeasterly winds will promote moisture pooling over
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through late tonight. By
early Thursday morning, winds will gradually shift more from the
east and east-southeast as the remnants of the front dissipate.

Under this weather pattern, residents across Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands can expect a limited to elevated risk of
flooding today. A limited flooding risk means ponding of water on
roads and in poorly drained areas, with a low chance of urban and
small stream flooding. An elevated flooding risk indicates flooding
of urban areas, roads, small streams, and washes, with a low chance
of isolated flash flooding.

A high-pressure system over the central Atlantic will promote a more
southeasterly to southerly wind flow by Friday. As a result,
precipitable water values are forecast to decrease from around 1.9
inches to near 1.3 inches, leading to lower rain chances and
moisture becoming more confined to the lower levels of the
atmosphere.

Temperatures across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands are
expected to remain near or slightly below normal through at least
Thursday. Overnight lows along the coast will range from the upper
60s to the low 70s, while mountain and valley locations may see
temperatures drop into the mid-50s to low 60s. Daytime high
temperatures along the coast are forecast to reach the mid-80s,
with highs in the mountains and valleys generally in the mid to
upper 70s.

&&

.Long Term(Saturday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 411 AM AST Wed Feb 4 2026

Conditions from next weekend into early next week will be
influenced by the arrival of another deep polar trough and its
associated frontal boundary, which will likely increase rain
chances and elevate the flood risk. Current guidance suggests the
front will pass on Saturday, with the trough lingering through the
weekend and increasing moisture values to above-normal levels
near 1.8 inches. At this time, the flood risk on Saturday remains
from limited to elevated, then limited on Sunday. Low-level winds
are expected to remain very light on Saturday, which could result
in slow moving showers and localized ponding. From Sunday through
midweek, winds are forecast to increase and turn from the north-
northeast as a strong high-pressure system builds across the
western Atlantic, tightening the pressure gradient across the
region. Areas exposed to northerly and northeasterly flow will
have the highest rain chances as showers are advected inland.

By early next week, moisture levels are expected to remain near
seasonal norms, then slightly increase from Tuesday through
Wednesday as the high shifts farther east into the Atlantic and
lifts the remnant frontal boundary, allowing enhanced moisture
convergence over the region. Additionally, mid to upper-level
are expected to become more dynamically favorable as an upper
level trough swings across the area.

Temperature guidance indicates seasonal to below normal temperatures,
with the coolest conditions expected on Sunday. Please continue
to monitor forecast updates and remain informed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 411 AM AST Wed Feb 4 2026

SHRA/-SHRA will continue across terminals with brief MVFR
possible. Winds will range mainly from the NE-ENE between 10 and
20 kt with gusts around 30 kt or even higher. This weather pattern
will persist throughout the day as the frontal boundary move
across the region. BKN/OVC cigs FL020FL070 will continue.
Afternoon convection will developed across the interior and
southwest PR aft 04/15z. Winds will turn more from the E-ESE by
late tonight into early Thursday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 411 AM AST Wed Feb 4 2026

A high pressure system moving eastward into the central Atlantic
today will promote moderate to fresh northeasterly winds, veering to
the east and eventually to the southeast by Thursday. A lingering
frontal boundary and associated moisture over the region will continue
to produce periods of showers, while lifting later today. Meanwhile,
a long-period northerly to northwesterly swell will maintain seas
of 7 to 10 feet, creating hazardous conditions for small craft. Small
Craft Advisories remain in effect for all local waters through at
least late tonight, and for the Atlantic offshore and coastal waters
through at least noon Thursday. Another strong northerly swell is
possible early next week, which may once again deteriorate marine
conditions.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 411 AM AST Wed Feb 4 2026

Meanwhile, hazardous marine and coastal conditions persist along the
Atlantic coastline due to a long-period northerly swell. A High Surf
Advisory, Coastal Flood Advisory, and a High Risk of Rip Currents
remain in effect. A High Risk of Rip Currents means life-threatening
rip currents are likely in the surf zone. A Coastal Flood Advisory
indicates that flooding in low-lying coastal areas is possible. A
High Surf Advisory means dangerous breaking waves may produce
localized beach erosion and hazardous swimming conditions. Although
the swell will gradually subside through the workweek, dangerous rip
current conditions are expected to persist. Another swell will
arrive by the upcoming weekend and early next week, prolonging some
coastal hazards.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001-
     002-005-008-010>012.

     High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for PRZ001-002-
     005-008-010-012.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Thursday for PRZ001-002-005-
     008-010-012.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ011-013.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ011.

VI...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for VIZ001.

     High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for VIZ001.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Thursday for VIZ001.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for VIZ002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until noon AST Thursday for AMZ711-712-716.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight AST tonight for AMZ723-726-
     733-735-741-742-745.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/BEACH...CAM
LONG TERM/MARINE...YZR

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion