536
FXCA62 TJSJ 251858
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
258 PM AST Tue Nov 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 247 PM AST Tue Nov 25 2025

* Winds between 10-15 knots with gusty winds will result in breezy
  conditions, which will remain in place due to a surface high
  pressure across the northwestern part of the Central Atlantic.

* For the U.S. Virgin Islands, a calm and stable weather pattern
  will persist for the rest of the workweek.

* Wind-driven seas will result in choppy seas, resulting in
 hazardous marine conditions for the small craft operators.


&&

.Short Term(This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 247 PM AST Tue Nov 25 2025

A variable weather pattern prevailed across the islands in the
morning, with low to upper cloudiness, resulting in cloudy skies
and no significant rainfall. As the day progressed, upper-level cloudiness
moved into the region, resulting in mostly cloudy skies along the
islands with no shower activity. Maximum temperatures were in the
mid-80s across coastal areas and in the mid-70s across the
mountains.

For tonight and the rest of the period, stable weather conditions
will persist across the islands. At the surface, a firm surface
high pressure extending from the northwestern Atlantic into the
Central Atlantic results in a steady northeastern wind flow across
the islands. A tight in the pressure gradient is forecast from
Wednesday into Thursday, as the surface high pressure moves more
into the Central Atlantic. This surface change will bring breezy
conditions with sustained winds of 10-15 mph and frequent gusts
across the Cordillera Central and coastal areas. Embedded in the 3
km wind, some patches of trapped low-level moisture will reach
the islands, especially the northeastern sections, and as a
result, an increase in the frequency of the showers is still
possible across those areas from Wednesday into Thanksgiving Day.

Temperature-wise, the northeast wind flow will continue to move
cold air across the islands, mainly giving fresh temperatures
close to seasonal levels in coastal areas and slightly colder in
the mountains. According to the global model guidance, Thursday
looks like the coldest day of the period.

&&

.Long Term(Friday through next Monday)...
From previous discussion Issued at 515 AM AST Tue Nov 25 2025

Breezy to locally windy conditions are forecast for the long term
period, particularly Saturday onwards as a surface high builds
over the Atlantic. Increasing moisture will maintain PWAT values
at up to normal values (1.5 to 1.8 in) with patches of drier and
slightly more humid air providing some variability. Patches of
moisture will promote showers steered by east-northeast, becoming
more northeasterly as the period progresses, flow to reach
windward sectors of the islands at times and promote a chance of
afternoon showers mainly over interior to SW PR. Flooding risks
are not forecast during the period. By Friday, the jet streak
will continue moving eastward and away from the area, while the
ridging weakens as a polar trough moves across the central
Atlantic. However, by Saturday and throughout the period, a high-
pressure system will build over the western to central Atlantic,
tightening the pressure gradient and resulting in increasing
winds. The breeziest days appear to be Sunday through Tuesday. 925
mb temperatures are forecast to remain at below normal to low end
normal values for this time of the year. Supporting highs in
generally the 80s, with some coastal/urban areas in the 90s and
higher elevations of PR in the 70s to low 80s, and lows in the low
to mid 70s, with some urban/coastal areas in the upper 70s and
higher elevations of PR into the upper 50s to low 60s.
&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 247 PM AST Tue Nov 25 2025

VFR conditions will persist along all the TAF sites during the
day. NE up 15 knots with gusty winds from 20 to 25 knots will
persist until 25/23Z diminishing at night, but increasing once
again at 26/13Z. VCSH are forecast for TJSJ and TIST from
26/00-26/12Z. Upper cloudiness will result higher cigs in the
FL060 to FL080.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 247 PM AST Tue Nov 25 2025

A building high-pressure system moving into the central Atlantic
will bring increasing moderate to locally fresh easterly winds
over the next few days. Confused seas are forecast as locally
choppy wind waves combine with an incoming northeasterly swell
through tomorrow, Wednesday. Small craft operators should exercise
caution; small craft advisories likely for tomorrow evening.
Increasing winds and building seas are also forecast by Saturday
night and into the weekend.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 247 PM AST Tue Nov 25 2025

The risk of rip currents will remain low until this evening along
all local beaches in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. By
this evening, a moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for the
northern beaches of Puerto Rico and Culebra, as well as for
eastern St. Croix. Coverage of the moderate risk of rip currents
will increase to the northern USVI, Vieques and areas of southern
Puerto Rico as the week continues. By Thursday and Friday, a high
risk of rip currents is possible along north-facing beaches of
Puerto Rico. High risk of rip currents are also forecast to start
the next workweek. Always check the beach forecast before heading
out, and avoid swimming at beaches with a high risk of rip
currents. For location-specific information, visit
weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

LIS/MMC

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion