925
FXCA62 TJSJ 141844
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
244 PM AST Sat Feb 14 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 153 PM AST Sat Feb 14 2026

 * The flood threat will remain elevated along portions of the
   Cordillera and southern PR this afternoon.

 * A frontal boundary will turn winds from the north and increase
   cloudiness and shower activity from tonight into Sunday.

 * For the U.S. Virgin Islands, shower activity is expected to
   increase in general on Sunday as the front moves over the
   region.

 * A northerly swell will increase the risk of rip currents
   across the northern exposed beaches of the islands on Sunday. A
   Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the offshore Atlantic
   waters due to seas up to 7 feet.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Monday)...
Issued at 153 PM AST Sat Feb 14 2026

Sunny to partly cloudy skies were observed through the morning
hours across the islands. However, by noon, cloudiness and showers
were increasing over the mountains of the islands, and drifting
slowly into the southern portions. By 2 PM AST, the Doppler radar
estimated between 1 and 1.50 inches across portions of the
Cordillera Central. In the USVI, this activity is expected to
continue through the rest of the afternoon hours. High temperatures
were in the mid 80s across the lower elevations to the mid and
upper 70s across the higher elevations.

For the rest of tonight into Sunday, a frontal boundary will
continue to increase cloudiness and shower activity across the
local area. Therefore, the flood threat will remain elevated in
general across PR, and particularly across the northern half of
the island as winds turn more northerly and increase between 15
and 20 knots. Passing showers and cloudiness will gradually
increase from the northern USVI to St. Croix throughout the day
on Sunday.

By early Monday, winds will turn from the east, as the surface
high pressure behind the front builds over the central Atlantic.
These winds will carry the remnants of the front into the offshore
Atlantic waters, and a drier air mass is expected move over the
region promoting fair weather conditions in general across the
islands.

&&

.Long Term(Tuesday through next Friday)...

From prev discussion issued at 305 AM AST Sat Feb 14 2026

The long-term period will be dominated by generally calm weather
conditions, with only a few passing showers at times and no
indications of an elevated or significant flooding risk. By late
Tuesday, a mid- to upper-level ridge will establish across the
forecast area, while a surface high pressure system builds in,
promoting more stable conditions. PWAT values are now ranging
between the 50th and 25th percentiles, or near to below normal for
this time of year, with values decreasing from around 1.40 inches to
near 1.00 inch. As a result, shower coverage is expected to remain
limited, with trade-wind moisture favoring brief passing morning
showers across eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands,
followed by isolated afternoon convective development over interior
and western Puerto Rico as mostly easterly winds prevail. These
conditions are expected to prevail through Friday.

Overall, the flooding threat should remain low through the end of
the period as stable conditions continue to dominate. Nevertheless,
the public is encouraged to continue monitoring the forecast for any
changes.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 153 PM AST Sat Feb 14 2026

SHRA will continue to increase across the local area due to an
approaching front. VFR conds expected early in the fcst period at
TJSJ and the USVI terminals, with tempo MVFR conds possible at
TJBQ and TJPS through the rest of the afternoon hours. From around
15/00z onward, -RA and BKN/OVC cigs are expected to gradually
affect the area terminals from northern PR into the USVI
terminals by 25/08z. Winds light and variable, but will acquire a
northerly component as the front pushes just over the islands this
evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 153 PM AST Sat Feb 14 2026

A surface high pressure over the eastern Atlantic, interacting with
an approaching cold front from the western Atlantic will lead to
light to gentle southeast winds during the day. Then, the cold front
will bring back moderate northerly winds from tonight through the
rest of the weekend, along with increasing cloud cover and rain
chances. A long period northerly swell will arrive on Sunday and
last through early Monday, building seas between 5 and 7 feet across
the offshore Atlantic waters.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 153 PM AST Sat Feb 14 2026

A northerly swell will increase the risk of rip currents along the
northern beaches of Puerto Rico on Sunday, and a High Rip Current
Risk will likely be issued later today. A low to moderate risk of
rip currents is expected elsewhere across the southern beaches of
PR and the USVI. Beach goers are urged to exercise caution across
the northern exposed beaches of the islands through the rest of
the weekend.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 6 AM AST Monday for
     AMZ711.

&&

$$

DSR

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion