226
FXCA62 TJSJ 280740 CCA
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
340 AM AST Sat Feb 28 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 330 AM AST Sat Feb 28 2026

* Moderate rip current risk will persist across most beaches of
  Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands this weekend. Breezy
  southeast winds will continue to create hazardous swimming
  conditions.

* Breezy southeast winds will bring fast-moving showers each day.
  Brief heavy rain may cause ponding on roads and reduced
  visibility, especially across windward areas.

* Warmer-than-normal temperatures will prevail across Puerto Rico
  and the US Virgin Islands over the next few days. Expect hotter
  afternoons and milder-than-usual nights compared to typical
  February and March conditions.

* Hazardous marine conditions will continue across the Atlantic
  and Caribbean Offshore Waters, and Caribbean Passages through
  the weekend. Fresh to Strong winds, producing choppy and rough
  seas, will create dangerous conditions for small craft.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Monday)...
Issued at 330 AM AST Sat Feb 28 2026

Overnight conditions were generally calm across the USVI, with
little or no rainfall. Meanwhile, a pocket of moisture brought
showers mainly across east and south Puerto Rico, while the rest
of the islands observed mostly quiet weather. Still over the
region, a layer of cirrus clouds is moving across the northeastern
Caribbean, while the east-southeast winds brought some low-level
clouds. While writing this discussion, we observed temperatures in
the upper 70s across the US Virgin Islands, in the mid- or
low-70s along the coast, and in the mid-60s and even cooler across
the higher elevations and valleys. Winds were mainly land breeze
across the leeward sides of the islands, from the ESE at 5 to 10
mph, with some higher gusts at coastal stations in the windward
locations.

The Azores High will dominate our local weather pattern,
promoting breezy to locally windy ESE-SE winds over the next few
days. Model guidance indicates 925 MB winds above normal levels
(around the 75th percentile of the local climatology for this
month). Although we expect good periods of sunshine or mostly
clear skies, these breezy winds will bring pockets of moisture
daily, resulting in quick-moving showers, especially across the
windward locations. Then, by the afternoon, under the southeast
wind flow, we cannot rule out some showers developing across the
northwest quadrant of PR and downwind from the USVI. As a result,
at times we anticipate periods of moderate to locally heavy rain,
leading to ponding of water across portions of the islands.

Model guidance suggests near-normal to above-normal temperatures
at 925 MB during the next few days. This trend could indicate
warmer-than-normal temperatures across both PR and the USVI each
day.

&&

.Long Term(Tuesday through Saturday)...
Issued at 330 AM AST Sat Feb 28 2026

At the beginning of the long-term period, a broad surface high-
pressure system will be positioned over the northeastern Atlantic,
while another builds across the western Atlantic. This pattern will
promote mainly easterly winds on Tuesday, shifting to predominantly
northeasterly winds for the remainder of the period. As the pressure
gradient tightens across our region, breezy to windy conditions are
likely from Tuesday onward. As a result, winds will be one of the
primary weather concerns. The wind risk will fluctuate from limited
to elevated, particularly along coastal areas of the islands.
Residents should secure loose outdoor objects, as items may be blown
around or damaged.

The latest model guidance suggests that moisture content will remain
variable, oscillating between near-seasonal levels and slightly
above normal as patches of moisture move within the trade wind flow.
Precipitable water values are expected to range between 1.20 and
1.60 inches. This pattern will support frequent passing showers,
particularly during the overnight and morning hours across windward
sectors, followed by afternoon convection each day over interior and
western Puerto Rico. Fast-moving showers driven by strong winds
should reduce rainfall accumulation and therefore limit the flood
potential.

Around midweek, upper-level dynamics will become more favorable,
with improved ventilation and cooler temperatures aloft (around -9
degrees C). These conditions could support a few isolated
thunderstorms across western Puerto Rico during the afternoon, if
convection develops. Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, mostly sunny to
partly cloudy skies will prevail, with passing showers mainly during
the nighttime and early morning hours. Winds will also remain a
primary hazard throughout the long-term period across the islands.

The 925 mb temperature outlook indicates above-normal values at the
beginning of the period, followed by a decrease to near-average
levels for the remainder of the forecast. Daytime maximum
temperatures are expected to range from the low to mid-80s across
lower elevations of the islands and from the mid-70s across higher
elevations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 330 AM AST Sat Feb 28 2026

VFR conditions will prevail today. Although pockets of moisture
embedded in the prevailing winds will result in some quick
passing SHRA/-SHRA. During the afternoon, between 28/16-23z, some
showers will develop across the interior and northwest. We do not
anticipate extensive impacts to terminals. Expect SE winds at 5-10
kt overnight with higher gusts, and after 28/13z at 10-20 kt with
gusts between 20 and 30 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM AST Sat Feb 28 2026

A broad surface high over the Atlantic will continue to tighten the
local pressure gradient and promote fresh to locally strong east to
east-southeast winds. Although this high will remain near the region,
another broad surface high will build over the western to central
Atlantic at the start of the next workweek, sustaining fresh to
strong winds. Expect EESE winds to back slightly to the east-
northeast by midweek. These conditions will maintain choppy to rough
seas across the regional waters through the weekend and into early
next week, especially across the Atlantic and Caribbean Offshore
waters and local passages. Small craft should continue to exercise
caution.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 330 AM AST Sat Feb 28 2026

Nearshore buoys have already shown decreased wave heights early this
morning, which has resulted in somewhat lower breaking wave action
along local beaches. However, breezy to windy winds will create
favorable conditions for the development of rip currents across
the region, prevailing through the weekend and early next week.

Therefore, a moderate risk of rip currents will persist for most
of the local beaches in Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands.
Life-threatening rip currents are possible in the surf zone,
particularly along expose beaches.

Looking ahead, another northerly swell will likely arrive by midweek
next week, potentially resulting in hazardous beach conditions once
again.

For localized and updated rip current information, visit
weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM AST Sunday for AMZ711-723.

     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 5 PM AST Sunday
     for AMZ733.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 5 PM AST Sunday for AMZ741.

&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES/SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CAM
LONG TERM....YZR
BEACH FORECAST/MARINE...CVB

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion