033
FXCA62 TJSJ 240827
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
427 AM AST Sat Jan 24 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 426 AM AST Sat Jan 24 2026

* Hazardous marine and beach conditions continue, with dangerous
  offshore seas and rip currents posing a risk to small craft and
  swimmers.

* Frequent showers will persist today, but the risk of flooding
  will be low. Ponding of water on roadways are anticipated,
  especially across western Puerto Rico this afternoon.

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, on and off showers will continue
  as well, with a higher frequency of showers today that will
  gradually diminish tonight.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Monday)...
Issued at 426 AM AST Sat Jan 24 2026

Frequent moving showers over the waters affected the U.S. Virgin
Islands and eastern Puerto Rico during the overnight hours, driven
by patches of enhanced low-level moisture embedded in the trade wind
flow. These showers moved fairly quickly, limiting rainfall
accumulations overall, though brief periods of moderate rainfall
were observed.

Moist conditions will persist through today as above-normal
precipitable water values remain in place across the northeastern
Caribbean. Mid-level moisture, with 700-500 mb relative humidity
above climatological normal today, will continue to support periods
of showers, particularly across eastern and interior/western
sections of Puerto Rico. The National Blend of Models (NBM) guidance
suggests rainfall totals of around one-half to locally one inch
today, with a limited flooding risk due to ponding of water in roads
and poorly drained areas. Localized areas, mostly over western
portions of Puerto Rico could still observe urban and small stream
flooding during the afternoon hours.

A drying trend is expected late tonight into Sunday as a drier air
mass moves in from the northeast. Both precipitable water and mid-
level relative humidity will decrease sharply, resulting in reduced
shower coverage on Sunday. Any remaining activity will be brief and
mainly confined to windward coastal areas during the morning hours.
On Monday, moisture levels are forecast to fluctuate between below-
normal and near-normal values, allowing for isolated passing showers
at times, but overall stable conditions will prevail.

Breezy east to northeast winds will persist through at least late
Sunday, with sustained surface winds of 13 to 18 mph and higher
gusts at times, particularly across coastal areas. On Monday, an
approaching shearline and col region from the northwest will weaken
the pressure gradient, resulting in a gradual reduction in wind
speeds.

&&

.Long Term(Tuesday through Saturday)...
Issued at 426 AM AST Sat Jan 24 2026

Surface high over the eastern Atlantic will drive the trade winds
from the east through Wednesday. At the mid and upper levels, a
ridge builds, maintaining the mid levels very dry. Thus, fair
weather is expected for most of the period. However, some showers
may still reach the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico at
times, while convection could still form in the west each
afternoon. The risk of flooding will be very slim to none. By the
end of the week, a polar trough will weaken the pressure gradient,
with winds becoming very light on Thursday and Friday. A cold
front will stall north of the area too. So far, it looks like the
rain activity will stay along the Atlantic waters, so the chances
or rain are not expected to be high on land areas. Also, winds
will shift more from the south on Thursday and Friday. This will
result in warmer temperatures, with 925 mb values at one to two
standard deviations above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 426 AM AST Sat Jan 24 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected across all terminals through the
forecast period. However, passing trade wind showers will continue
to affect the USVI and E Puerto Rico, especially during the
overnight and early morning hours, resulting in VCSH and brief MVFR
conditions in SHRA at times. During the afternoon, shower activity
may increase across interior and W PR, potentially affecting TJPS
with brief MVFR CIGs/VIS. Sfc winds will be from the E at 15-20 kt
with higher gusts aft 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 426 AM AST Sat Jan 24 2026

A broad surface high pressure over the eastern Atlantic will promote
moderate trade winds today, while another building high will bring
moderate to fresh tonight through Monday. Lingering moisture from a
surface trough will maintain a high frequency of showers through
today, but the frequency of the showers will gradually decrease
tonight.


&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 426 AM AST Sat Jan 24 2026

Moderate easterly winds will maintain a moderate to high rip
current today, especially for the northern coast of Puerto Rico.
For the rest of the week, the risk of rip currents will be
moderate for most north and east facing beaches in Puerto Rico,
and across most of the Virgin Islands beaches.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for PRZ001-002-005-
     008.

     High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM AST early this morning for
     PRZ012.

VI...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM AST early this morning for
     VIZ001-002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST Sunday for AMZ711.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CVB
LONG TERM....ERG
AVIATION...DS

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion