539
FXCA62 TJSJ 080840
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
440 AM AST Thu Jan 8 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 403 AM AST Thu Jan 8 2026

* Life-threatening rip currents are expected along the north and
  east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico through this afternoon due to
  a persistent northeasterly swell across the local Atlantic
  waters. A moderate risk will continue for north and east-
  facing beaches of the U.S. Virgin Islands.

* Expect passing morning showers across the windward areas of
  Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, and afternoon showers
  across the interior and southwest Puerto Rico.

* Seasonal temperatures will prevail across the islands through
  the next several days, with cooler conditions continuing in the
  higher elevations.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 403 AM AST Thu Jan 8 2026

Clear to partly cloudy skies were observed across the islands during
the overnight hours. Passing showers were noted mainly across the
regional waters, and briefly along the northern and eastern sections
of Puerto Rico. Little to no rainfall was observed across the U.S.
Virgin Islands. Minimum temperatures were from the upper 60s to low
70s across the lower elevations of the islands to the upper 50s and
mid-60s across the higher elevations of Puerto Rico. Mostly light
winds prevailed over land areas with a northeasterly component and
gusts around 12 mph.

A weak, broad trough east/northeast of the region is expected to
increase the overall moisture content today. However, pockets of dry
air will also be carried by the light to moderate east to northeast
trades. This weather pattern will continue during the next few days,
and as the trough pulls further into the central Atlantic, a surface
high pressure building over the western Atlantic will promote
stronger winds by Saturday and increase the frequency of passing
showers across the islands in general. Therefore, expect showers to
move at times during the nighttime across the USVI, and
east/northern sections of PR during the night. In the afternoon, the
available limited moisture content in combination with daytime
heating and the sea breeze convergence will cause showers to develop
over portions of the Cordillera, including the southern and western
slopes.

Seasonal temperatures will prevail throughout the short-term period,
resulting in generally pleasant conditions across the islands. High
temperatures will remain near climatological normals. However,
slightly warmer temperatures are expected each day along the
southern portions of PR, where max temps could reach the upper 80s.
Cooler conditions are expected at night under mostly clear skies
across the higher elevations and valleys of PR.

&&

.Long Term(Sunday through Thursday)...
Issued at 403 AM AST Thu Jan 8 2026

Surface high pressure over the north-central Atlantic will promote
moderate to locally fresh east-northeast winds through late Tuesday
night. From Wednesday onward, winds are expected to shift from the
east as the high pressure migrates toward the eastern Atlantic. At
the mid-to-upper levels, a ridge will build over the southwestern
Atlantic while a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) begins to
develop over the central Atlantic, northeast of the Lesser Antilles.

The latest model guidance continues to suggest precipitable water
(PWAT) values will remain near normal on Sunday before dropping
below seasonal averages by Monday (0.85 to 1.21 inches). Despite the
strength of the TUTT low to the northeast, dry air intrusion
associated with the mid-to-upper level ridge will promote stable
conditions aloft. This will inhibit shower development across Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands throughout the period.

Temperatures at the 925 mb level will remain near seasonal averages.
Consequently, expect maximum temperatures in the low to mid-80s
across lower elevations and in the mid to upper 70s across higher
terrain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 403 AM AST Thu Jan 8 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals
during the next 24 hours. However, brief periods of -RA/VCSH are
expected thru the early morning hours at TJSJ/TJBQ. Locally induced
SHRA over central PR, may cause tempo MVFR cigs at TJPS btw 08/17z-
21z. E-ENE winds up to 12 kt with sea breeze variations and higher
gusts expected aft 08/13z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 403 AM AST Thu Jan 8 2026

A long-period northeasterly swell will continue to spread across
the Atlantic waters and local Caribbean passages through today,
resulting in building seas between 4 to 6 feet. A surface high
pressure over the western Atlantic, along with weak induced
surface troughs northeast of the region, will promote moderate
east to northeast trade winds today through the the rest of the
week.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 403 AM AST Thu Jan 8 2026

Hazardous coastal conditions will continue across the local beaches
through at least this afternoon due to a spreading northeasterly
swell affecting the Atlantic waters. This swell will maintain
life- threatening rip current conditions along the northwest to
northeast-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, where a High Rip Current
Risk remains in effect until later today. Life-threatening rip
currents are possible along north and east-facing beaches of the
U.S. Virgin Islands, where a moderate rip current risk is
expected. For localized and updated risk levels, visit
weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for PRZ001-002-005-
     008.

VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

MIDNIGHT CREW...DSR/GRS

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion