370
FXCA62 TJSJ 010600
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
200 AM AST Wed Apr 1 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 200 AM AST Wed Apr 1 2026

* Dangerous  rip currents continue along north- and east-facing
  beaches. Stay out of the water. Rough surf persists through this
  afternoon.

* Hazardous seas will continue for small craft through at least
  Friday night and likely into the weekend.

* Showers move across windward areas overnight and in the
  morning, then focus over southwestern Puerto Rico in the
  afternoon. Brief heavy rain may cause localized flooding, with
  lightning and gusty winds possible.

* Winds remain strong, around 15 to 20 mph with higher gusts,
  especially near showers and in exposed areas.


&&

.Short Term(Today through Friday)...
Issued at 200 AM AST Wed Apr 1 2026

A strong high pressure system over the western Atlantic will
maintain breezy trade winds across the region through the rest of
the workweek. Sustained winds will generally range between 15 and
20 mph, with gusts between 25 and 30 mph, and locally higher gusts
possible near showers and across exposed areas. Moisture will
remain near seasonal levels today, supporting passing showers
across windward areas through the morning hours, followed by the
development of showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly over the
far southwestern sections of Puerto Rico this afternoon.

A wetter pattern will gradually develop from late tonight onward
as a band of above-normal moisture moves in from the northeast and
spreads across the local islands. Moisture will become deeper and
more established by Thursday night into Friday, resulting in more
frequent passing showers across eastern and northern Puerto Rico
and the U.S. Virgin Islands, followed by enhanced afternoon
convection over portions of western Puerto Rico. The lack of a
well-defined trade wind cap, combined with nearby upper-level
troughiness, will favor more efficient shower development,
although thunderstorm activity should remain isolated.

The highest rainfall totals each day will remain localized and
primarily driven by diurnal heating, terrain effects, and low-
level convergence. As winds gradually veer from the northeast to
the east and eventually east-southeast, the area of greatest
activity is expected to shift from the far southwestern portions
of Puerto Rico today toward western and northwestern Puerto Rico
by Friday.

The main concern through the short-term period will be the
increasing potential for locally heavy rainfall and localized
flooding, especially in urban areas, roads, and poor drainage
locations from late Thursday through Friday, when the deepest
moisture is expected. While showers will generally move quickly,
repeated activity over the same areas may lead to rainfall
accumulations of around 1 to 2 inches, with locally higher amounts
possible, particularly across western and northwestern Puerto Rico
by late in the week. The strongest winds are expected late
Thursday into Friday, especially across exposed coastal areas,
higher elevations, and surrounding waters.


&&

.Long Term(Saturday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 200 AM AST Wed Apr 1 2026

For the beginning of the long-term period, a weather pattern
influenced by an induced surface trough and an upper-level shortwave
trough is expected. This combination will lead to increasingly
unstable conditions across the islands. As the disturbance moves
west of the region, its interaction with a high-pressure system over
the Central Atlantic will promote an east-southeasterly wind flow.

The upper-level trough will enhance instability and support
thunderstorm development, resulting in a high probability of
showers. However, a deep upper-level cloud layer may limit daytime
heating, potentially reducing widespread activity. Even so,
localized, well-developed showers are expected, especially across
northwestern areas and the San Juan metro region. By Sunday,
precipitable water values are forecast to reach around 1.7 inches,
near the 75th percentile for this time of year. A limited to
elevated flood risk will persist each afternoon. As a result,
similar conditions are expected on Sunday, as the upper-level trough
continues to influence the region along with periods of enhanced
cloud cover. During this time, a limited to elevated flood risk will
persist each afternoon.

From Monday through Wednesday, the surface pattern will become
dominated by a broad high-pressure system over the Central Atlantic,
resulting in southeasterly winds. During this period, increasing low-
level moisture from the Caribbean will spread across the islands,
with precipitable water values rising to around 1.9 inches and
remaining near the 75th percentile, based on climatological data for
this time of the year. With weaker upper-level dynamics, cloud cover
aloft will be less extensive, allowing for more effective daytime
heating. As a result, afternoon convection is expected to become
more widespread and better organized, particularly across western
and interior Puerto Rico, where local effects will enhance shower
and thunderstorm development. This pattern, combined with warm and
humid conditions, will increase the risk of urban and small stream

flooding.
&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 200 AM AST Wed Apr 1 2026

SHRA will affect mainly windward terminals overnight into 01/14Z
with periods of MVFR (cigs 23 kft, vsby 35 SM). TJPS less
impacted early, but SHRA possible aft 01/17Z with brief MVFR
conditions. SHRA redevelop ovr windward terminals aft 01/22Z. NE
winds 1015 kt overnight, incr to 1520 kt with gusts 2530 kt aft
sunrise, remaining breezy and gusty.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 200 AM AST Wed Apr 1 2026

Hazardous marine conditions will persist through the week under a
strong Atlantic high-pressure system. Fresh to strong
northeasterly winds and a persistent northerly swell will maintain
choppy to rough seas across regional waters, with conditions
continuing even as winds shift easterly. Frequent trade wind
showers will move across the Atlantic waters and local passages,
with isolated afternoon thunderstorms possible over the Caribbean
waters. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for northern and
exposed waters through at least Saturday.


&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 200 AM AST Wed Apr 1 2026

Hazardous coastal conditions will persist across Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands through the rest of the workweek and
possibly into the weekend. A long-period northerly swell will
continue to impact exposed coastlines, resulting in a high risk of
rip currents, dangerous surf, beach erosion, and large breaking
waves. The most hazardous conditions are expected along north-
and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, including Culebra and
Vieques, as well as the northern U.S. Virgin Islands. A High Surf
Advisory remains in effect through this afternoon, with a high
risk of rip currents continuing beyond that period through at
least Friday night.

Beachgoers are strongly urged to stay out of the water and
exercise caution near the shoreline, as breaking waves and wave
run-up can sweep people off rocks and beacheseven those not
entering the water are at risk. Elsewhere, a low to moderate risk
of rip currents will persist; however, hazardous conditions can
still occur. Swim only near lifeguards and follow local safety
guidance.


&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for PRZ001-002-
     005-008-010-012.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001-002-
     005-008-010-012-013.

     High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for PRZ013.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for VIZ001.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for VIZ001.

     High Rip Current Risk from 8 AM AST this morning through late
     Friday night for VIZ002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Saturday for AMZ711-712-716-
     723-741-742.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Friday for AMZ726.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM-AVIATION...ICP
LONG TERM-MARINE....LIS.YZR

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion