374
FXCA62 TJSJ 021827 CCA
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
227 PM AST Mon Feb 2 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 131 PM AST Mon Feb 2 2026

* The elevated to significant flood threat is in place through
  tonight, with an elevated risk continuing through midweek.
  Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall may result in urban and
  small stream flooding, localized flash flooding, and minor
  landslides. Residents and visitors should remain alert and avoid
  rivers, creeks, and other flood-prone areas.

* Marine and coastal conditions remain dangerous due to the
  arrival of a strong, long-period north to northwesterly swell
  and increasing northerly winds. High Surf Advisories, a High Rip
  Current Risk, Small Craft Advisories, as well as a Coastal Flood
  Advisory in effect through late Wednesday. Potential impacts
  include large breaking waves, life- threatening rip currents,
  beach erosion, and minor coastal flooding in vulnerable coastal
  areas. Stay out of the water!

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, shower frequency will increase
  today, with the highest rainfall potential expected tonight into
  Tuesday. Therefore, limited to elevated flood potential.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 131 PM AST Mon Feb 2 2026

Todays weather was dominated by persistent cloudiness and periods
of rainfall across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The
wettest conditions occurred over Culebra, as well as portions of
southern Puerto Rico. The highest rainfall totals were observed
over Culebra, where a Flood Advisory was issued after radar
estimates indicated between 1 and 2 inches of rain during the
morning hours. Throughout the day, localized higher amount were
seen in other areas like southeastern PR, but in most rural areas.
Trailing moisture behind the frontal boundary allowed showers to
continue developing through the day. Limited daytime heating due
to extensive cloud cover resulted in temperatures mainly in the
70s across coastal areas, with upper 60s to low 70s across higher
elevations. Winds were generally variable in direction. Regarding
wind speeds, a shearline started moving across the region just
behind the frontal boundary by the late morning increasing winds
to around 20 mph with higher gust. These stronger winds resulted
in breezy conditions across the islands.

Shower coverage is expected to increase in both frequency and
intensity across the local waters and all islands through the rest of
today into tomorrow. The wettest period is anticipated over
eastern Puerto Rico through the remainder of today, while the U.S.
Virgin Islands can expect the most significant rainfall from late
tonight into Tuesday. Expected rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches,
with locally higher totals, may result in urban and small-stream
flooding, as well as flash flooding and isolated minor landslides,
particularly across the interior and eastern half of Puerto Rico.

As mentioned in previous discussion, winds are forecast to veer
back to an easterly direction as a surface high pressure system
builds quickly from the western Atlantic into the central Atlantic
on Wednesday,. This wind shift will transport remnant moisture
from the frontal boundary back across the region, prolonging
unsettled weather conditions through the short-term period.
Additional periods of moderate to heavy rainfall over already
saturated soils may lead to continued flooding concerns, and the
overall risk for flooding is expected to remain elevated.

&&

.Long Term(Thursday through next Sunday)...
Issued at 131 PM AST Mon Feb 2 2026

Lingering moisture associated with the frontal boundary, light
southeast winds, and 500 mb temperatures near -7 degrees Celsius
will promote the development of showers and isolated thunderstorms
again on Thursday, with activity more focused across northwestern
Puerto Rico. Slow-moving showers combined with saturated soils
could lead to urban and small stream flooding, with flood risk
ranging from limited to elevated. By Friday, precipitable water
values are expected to decrease significantly, from around 1.8
inches to near 1.2 inches, resulting in lower rain chances. The
remainder of the weekend into early next week will be influenced
by the arrival of another deep polar trough and its associated
frontal boundary, which will likely increase rain chances and
flood risk once again. Throughout the weekend, low-level winds are
expected to remain very light due to the presence of a col region.
From Sunday night into Monday, winds are forecast to gradually
increase and shift from the north to northeast as a frontal
boundary approaches or passes near the area. Please continue to
monitor forecast updates and remain informed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 PM AST Mon Feb 2 2026

Frontal system and shearline will continue to produce wdspd -SHRA
across all terminals with brief MVFR possible. FROPA will result in
winds shifting to W-NW, increasing to 15-18 kt with higher gusts,
strongest during the aftn. Recent PIREPs rpt MOD TURB, especially
nr TJSJ and TIST, associated with LLWS/mech turb in strengthening
post- frontal flow. TURB may persist through the night as the
frontal boundary continues to mode eastward. BKN/OVC cigs
FL020-FL070 expected at times. -TSRA psbl across the area through
the fcst period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 131 PM AST Mon Feb 2 2026

A frontal boundary will continue moving across the regional waters
through midweek, resulting in northerly winds strengthening to 20
to 25 knots, with higher gusts possible, through at least
Wednesday. These winds will enhance seas and contribute to
hazardous marine conditions.

In addition, a large, long-period northwest to northerly swell
will spread across the Atlantic waters and passages through
midweek. Seas will build rapidly to 10 to 14 feet, with locally
higher seas possible, particularly across the Atlantic offshore
waters and passages during the early part of the workweek. These
conditions will be hazardous to small craft, and Small Craft
Advisories remain in effect for all coastal and offshore waters
through at least late Wednesday night. Reduced visibility in
passing showers and isolated thunderstorms will also be possible
at times.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 131 PM AST Mon Feb 2 2026

A large, long-period northwest to northerly swell will continue
spreading across the Atlantic waters and passages through midweek.
Seas are expected to build rapidly up to 16 feet, with occasional
higher seas possible from late this afternoon through Tuesday.

This swell will result in large breaking waves and dangerous surf
conditions along the southwest to northeast facing beaches of
Puerto Rico, from Rincon to Fajardo, including Culebra, Vieques,
and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands. Swell decay from offshore
buoys and model guidance suggest surf heights between 17 and 22
feet during the peak of the event.

As a result, a High Surf Warning remains in effect, and a Coastal
Flood Advisory has been issued due to the increased risk of
coastal flooding during periods of high tide, particularly in low-
lying and vulnerable coastal areas. Minor to locally moderate
coastal flooding is possible, along with beach erosion and
overwash near the time of high tides.

The next high tides are expected as follows: In San Juan, 1.01 feet
at 9:16 PM AST, and 1.49 feet on Tuesday at 10:29 AM AST; in
Carolina/Loiza, 0.88 feet at 9:43 PM AST, and 1.36 feet on Tuesday
at 10:33 AM AST; in Arecibo, 1.17 feet at 8:58 PM AST, and 1.80
feet on Tuesday at 9:45 AM AST; in Aguadilla, 0.82 feet at 8:47 PM
AST, and 1.36 feet on Tuesday at 9:32 AM AST; in Mayaguez, 0.98
feet at 9:17 PM AST, and 1.35 feet on Tuesday at 10:01 AM AST; in
Botany Bay, St. Thomas, 0.93 feet at 9:42 PM AST, and 1.32 feet on
Tuesday at 10:16 AM AST.

Life-threatening rip currents are expected at exposed beaches, and
conditions will be dangerous for all swimmers. The public is
urged to stay out of the water and away from hazardous coastal
areas.

For localized and updated rip current information, visit
weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for PRZ001-002-
     005-008-010>012.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for PRZ001-002-005-
     008-010>012.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for PRZ001-002-
     005-008-010>012.

     High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
     afternoon for PRZ013.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for VIZ001.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for VIZ001.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for VIZ001.

     High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
     afternoon for VIZ002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM AST Thursday for AMZ711-712-716-
     733-735-741-742-745.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM AST Thursday
     for AMZ723-726.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MMC
LONG TERM...YZR
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACH FORECAST...CVB

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion