264
FXCA62 TJSJ 051827
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
227 PM AST Thu Mar 5 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 224 PM AST Thu Mar 5 2026

* Patches of moisture will filter across the islands at times during
  the forecast period, increasing fast-moving shower frequency.

* Breezy to locally windy conditions will continue, particularly
  across coastal areas of the islands, unsecured and outdoor objects
  may blow around.

* Expect choppy to rough seas across the offshore and nearshore
  Atlantic and Caribbean Waters, and the local passages. Small Craft
  Advisories are in effect for those areas. Inexperienced mariners
  should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

* A High Risk of Rip Currents is in effect for all islands through
  the weekend and into early next week. Up to a moderate risk of
  rip currents elsewhere.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 224 PM AST Thu Mar 5 2026

Todays weather was dominated by partly cloudy skies and frequent
fast moving showers across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
These showers produced rainfall accumulations between 0.03 and 0.50
inches across the islands. Winds remained breezy to locally windy,
generally between 10 and 20 mph with higher gusts. The Automated
Surface Observing System at Luis Munoz Marin International Airport
reported gusts up to 33 mph. Temperatures remained in the 80s across
coastal areas and in the upper 60s to lower 70s across higher
elevations.

Tonight through Saturday, multiple broad surface highs across the
western to central Atlantic will maintain a tight pressure gradient
across the northeastern Caribbean, sustaining ENE winds between 15
and 25 mph with higher gusts, particularly across coastal areas and
higher terrain. These breezy to locally windy conditions will pose a
limited to elevated wind risk, as unsecured outdoor items could be
blown around, and may also affect marine and coastal activities.
Meanwhile, 925 mb temperatures are expected to remain near seasonal
normals, supporting typical daytime temperatures across the islands.

By Friday afternoon into Saturday, model guidance indicates above-
normal moisture, with precipitable water values (PWAT) increasing to
around 1.50 to 1.70 inches. This increase in moisture, combined with
cooler 500 mb temperatures associated with a nearby trough, will
promote slightly greater atmospheric instability across the region.
As a result, shower activity will become more frequent, particularly
across windward areas during the overnight and morning hours,
followed by afternoon convection across western and southwestern
Puerto Rico. Although widespread flooding is not expected, localized
urban and poor drainage flooding cannot be ruled out where showers
repeatedly affect the same areas. Between these moisture patches,
brief intrusions of drier air and low concentrations of Saharan dust
are possible.

&&

.Long Term(Sunday through next Wednesday)...
Issued at 510 AM AST Thu Mar 5 2026

High pressure over the western Atlantic will remain the dominant
feature through midweek while gradually shifting northeast. This
pattern will maintain easterly to east-northeasterly winds across
the northeastern Caribbean, with breezy to windy conditions
prevailing for much of the period. Winds may weaken slightly around
midweek as the pressure gradient relaxes, though breezy conditions
are still expected. Aloft, a trough over the western Atlantic and
the Greater Antilles will linger nearby, with its axis initially
near eastern Cuba and slowly drifting toward western Hispaniola by
midweek. This feature will provide some upper-level ventilation over
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Despite this, dry air in
the mid-levels will continue to limit thunderstorm or deep
convective development. Moisture will remain near typical to
slightly above-normal levels for this time of year, before gradually
trending drier later in the period. Late in the period, an easterly
wind perturbation or weak surface trough may approach the area
Wednesday night.

Hazards during this period will be led by breezy to windy conditions
across land areas. Rainfall will remain a secondary concern, mainly
from frequent fast-moving trade wind showers affecting windward
areas overnight and during the morning hours. Limited afternoon
showers may develop across interior and western Puerto Rico. Periods
of moderate rainfall with passing showers could lead to brief
ponding of water in poor drainage areas, but the overall flooding
risk remains low.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 224 PM AST Thu Mar 5 2026

Mainly VFR conds expected thru the period across all TAF sites.
ENE winds btwn 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt will continue to
impact all terminals thru 05/23Z. -RA will affect TJPS at times.
Periods of fast moving trade wind VCSH will continue to affect
TJSJ/TISX/TIST/TJBQ through 06/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 224 PM AST Thu Mar 5 2026

Hazardous marine conditions are expected to continue over the next
several days. A series of high pressure systems across the Atlantic
will promote fresh to locally strong east-northeasterly winds
throughout the forecast period. The latest buoy observations show
building seas between 5 and 6 feet, with winds between 20 and 22 kt
and gusts up to 30 kt. This will continue to result in choppy to
rough seas across most regional waters and local Caribbean passages,
posing a hazard to small craft operators. At this time, Small Craft
Advisories remain in effect through at least 6 PM AST Sunday,
although these may be extended as hazardous conditions will possibly
continue the next workweek. Inexperienced mariners, especially those
operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous
conditions.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 224 PM AST Thu Mar 5 2026

Some changes were introduced to the beach forecast. Hazardous beach
conditions are expected to continue across the islands due to
strengthening winds leading to breezy to windy conditions and a
trade wind swell spreading across the local waters and passages. The
latest local buoy observations showed an increase in significant
wave height (between 5 and 6 feet), particularly buoys near the
coastal waters of Vieques and St. Thomas. Given the current marine
conditions, a Rip Current Statement is now in effect for Culebra,
Vieques, St Thomas, and St. John through at least Sunday due to life-
threatening rip currents possible along the surf zone. The Rip
Current Statement for northern and eastern Puerto Rico and St. Croix
in the U.S. Virgin Islands continues in effect through Sunday as
well. Residents and visitors are encouraged to continue monitoring
the conditions and to heed the advice of the flag system, as well as
the beach patrol flags and posted signs. Although model guidance
keeps suggesting that the swell will gradually diminish by late
Friday night, hazardous conditions will like persist this weekend
and early next week.

For the rest of the areas, the moderate risk will continue for the
next several days. Beachgoers should exercise caution, as life-
threatening rip currents are still possible along the surf zone. For
additional information and location-specific rip current details,
please visit: weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for PRZ001-002-
     005-008-012-013.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for VIZ001-002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST Sunday for AMZ711-712-716-
     723-726-733-741.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Friday for AMZ735.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MMC
LONG TERM...ICP
MARINE/BEACH FORECAST...MNG

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion