039
FXCA62 TJSJ 020846
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
446 AM AST Mon Feb 2 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 446 AM AST Mon Feb 2 2026

* An elevated to significant flood threat is in place today, with
  an elevated risk continuing through midweek. Periods of
  moderate to heavy rainfall may result in urban and small stream
  flooding, localized flash flooding, and minor landslides.
  Residents and visitors should remain alert and avoid rivers,
  creeks, and other flood-prone areas.

* Hazardous marine and coastal conditions will develop starting
  today due to the arrival of a strong, long-period north to
  northwesterly swell and increasing northerly winds. High Surf
  Advisories, a High Rip Current Risk, and Small Craft Advisories
  are in effect through late Wednesday. In addition, a Coastal
  Flood Watch is in effect. Potential impacts include large
  breaking waves, life-threatening rip currents, beach erosion,
  and minor coastal flooding in vulnerable coastal areas. Stay out
  of the water!

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, shower frequency will increase
  today, with the highest rainfall potential expected tonight into
  Tuesday.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Wednesday)...
Issued at 446 AM AST Mon Feb 2 2026

A frontal boundary converged with southerly winds early this morning
to produce significant rainfall over portions of southern Puerto
Rico. Since midnight, the Doppler radar estimated between 3 and 6
inches of rain between Guanica and Ponce. An eastward shift in
rainfall activity is expected across the rest of PR, and into the
USVI throughout the day. Behind the front, from today through late
Tuesday night, a shearline will increase winds between 20 and 25
knots and from the north to northeast. This will cause breezy
conditions across the islands, and in combination with abundant
moisture content will promote an advective weather pattern with
showers increasing in frequency and intensity over the local waters
and across all the islands. The wettest period is still expected
today across PR, and across the USVI from late tonight into Tuesday.
The expected rainfall (1-3 inches and locally higher) will cause
urban and small stream flooding, as well as flash flooding with
possible minor landslides, particularly across the interior and
eastern half of PR.

On Wednesday, winds are expected to return from the east as a
surface high pressure quickly builds from the western Atlantic into
the central Atlantic. These winds will bring back/carry the remnants
of the front over the islands, extending the overall wet period
through the short-term period. Any additional periods of heavy
showers over already saturated soils will lead to flooding, and the
risk for flooding will remain elevated in general.

Another significant threat during the short-term period is the
arrival of a large swell, that will produce dangerous swimming
conditions, life-threatening rip currents, high surf conditions and
possible minor coastal flooding along the west to north beaches of
PR, Culebra, and the northern USVI. Inexperienced surfers and beach
goers are urged to stay on shore, and away from beaches and rock
formations.

&&

.Long Term(Thursday through Monday)...
Issued at 446 AM AST Mon Feb 2 2026

Lingering moisture associated with the frontal boundary, light
southeast winds, and 500 mb temperatures near -7 degrees Celsius
will promote the development of showers and isolated thunderstorms
again on Thursday, with activity more focused across northwestern
Puerto Rico. Slow-moving showers combined with saturated soils
could lead to urban and small stream flooding, with flood risk
ranging from limited to elevated. By Friday, precipitable water
values are expected to decrease significantly, from around 1.8
inches to near 1.2 inches, resulting in lower rain chances. The
remainder of the weekend into early next week will be influenced
by the arrival of another deep polar trough and its associated
frontal boundary, which will likely increase rain chances and
flood risk once again. Throughout the weekend, low-level winds are
expected to remain very light due to the presence of a col region.
From Sunday night into Monday, winds are forecast to gradually
increase and shift from the north to northeast as a frontal
boundary approaches or passes near the area. Please continue to
monitor forecast updates and remain informed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 446 AM AST Mon Feb 2 2026

Frontal system and associated shearline will continue to produce
widespread -SHRA across the area terminals during the next 24 hours.
Increasing northerly winds expected at TJBQ/TJSJ up to 18 kt with
stronger gusts at times aft 02/13z, while weak and variable winds
prevail across the USVI terminals through late this afternoon. The
strong northerly winds will reach the USVI from this evening onward.
Mtn tops obscd and BKN/OVC cigs expected mainly btw FL025-FL100. Iso
-TSRA cannot be ruled out throughout the fcst period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 446 AM AST Mon Feb 2 2026

A frontal boundary is moving across the region through midweek,
causing winds to shift to the north and strengthen to 20 to 25
knots, with higher gusts expected through at least Wednesday. This
front will also bring heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms to
the local waters. In addition, a large, long-period northerly to
northwesterly swell will generate hazardous seas ranging from 10
to 14 feet across regional waters during the early part of the
workweek. These conditions will be hazardous to small craft, with
Small Craft Advisories in effect for all coastal and offshore
waters through at least late Wednesday night.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 446 AM AST Mon Feb 2 2026

A large, long-period northwest to northerly swell will gradually
spread across the Atlantic waters and passages through midweek.
Seas are expected to build rapidly up to 12 feet, and occasionally
higher from late this afternoon through Tuesday. This swell is
forecast to cause large breaking wave action along the west to
northeast beaches of Puerto Rico, from Rincon to Fajardo, Culebra,
and the northern USVI. Swell decay from offshore buoys and model
adjustment due to underestimation of seas, suggest surf heights
between 15 and 20 feet during the peak of the event. A High Surf
Warning and a Coastal Flood Warning could be issued later today if
buoy observations continue to support this significant swell
event.

The next high tides are expected as follows: In San Juan, 1.60 feet
at 9:49 AM AST, and 1.01 feet at 9:16 PM AST; in Mayaguez, 1.41 feet
at 9:19 AM AST, and 0.98 feet at 9:17 PM AST; in Charlotte Amalie,
0.74 feet at 10:12 AM AST, and 0.66 feet at 10:34 AM Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 446 AM AST Mon Feb 2 2026

An unusually moist and wet period for early February. Last night
and during the overnight period, some areas across western to
southern interior of Puerto Rico have seen around 2 to 5 inches,
isolated up to 6 inches of rainfall. Although streamflows have
been running around normal to below normal levels, some rivers
reached action level (below flood level, but elevated). Additional
rainfall today and Tuesday could lead to flooding across main
rivers and trigger small land slides in areas of steep terrain.
Please be aware of your surroundings if you live in flood prone
areas.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...Coastal Flood Watch through late Tuesday night for PRZ001-002-
     005-008-010>012.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for PRZ001-002-
     005-008-010>012.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for PRZ001-002-005-
     008-010>012.

     High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
     afternoon for PRZ013.

VI...Coastal Flood Watch through late Tuesday night for VIZ001.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for VIZ001.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for VIZ001.

     High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
     afternoon for VIZ002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM AST Thursday for AMZ711-712-741-
     742-745.

     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 2 AM AST Thursday for
     AMZ716-733-735.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM AST Thursday
     for AMZ723-726.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/BEACH...DS
LONG TERM/MARINE/HYDROLOGY...YZR

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion