631
FXCA62 TJSJ 300733 CCA
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
333 AM AST Fri Jan 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 306 AM AST Fri Jan 30 2026

* An approaching frontal boundary will increase the risk of urban
  and small stream flooding across the islands from Saturday
  onward.

* For the U.S. Virgin Islands, the primary hazard will remain
  dangerous swimming conditions and hazardous seas in the near
  term. An increased risk of flooding is anticipated next week,
  particularly on Tuesday and Wednesday.

* There is a high rip current risk from Rincon to Fajardo,
  Culebra, and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands through Friday
  afternoon. Please remember, rip currents can sweep even the best
  swimmers away from shore into deeper water, where it becomes
  difficult to return to safety.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 306 AM AST Fri Jan 30 2026

Mostly clear skies were observed across the islands during the
night. Passing light showers ahead of the passage of a weak surface
trough were increasing from the Anegada Passage by 30/06z. Minimum
temperatures were from the upper 60s to low 70s across coastal areas
to the upper 50s in the higher elevations of PR. Across the USVI,
lows were in the mid 70s. The wind was light and variable over land
areas.

The main hazard today will be the life-threatening rip currents
along the northern beaches of PR, Culebra, and St. Thomas.

A brief surge in moisture content is expected today with the passage
of a weak trough, currently located east of the Anegada Passage.
There will be a mix of sunshine and clouds with occasional passing
showers across the USVI this morning. Followed by moderate showers
developing in the afternoon over the eastern and northern half of PR.

A gradual trend into a wetter pattern is expected during the
weekend. As the local area lies between an approaching deep layer
trough from the western Atlantic and associated frontal boundary,
and as pooling of moisture continues across the eastern Caribbean
under a deep layer southerly wind flow. The flood risk is expected
to increase in general across the islands during the weekend,
residents and visitors are urged to monitor the weather conditions.
&&

.Long Term(Monday through Friday)...
Issued at 306 AM AST Fri Jan 30 2026

An unsettled and wet pattern will persist through the long-term
period as a frontal boundary approaches the region. This boundary,
combined with tropical moisture drawn from South America and the
Caribbean, will enhance instability and rainfall potential through
the end of the workweek. Recent global model runs suggest
precipitable water values will remain well above seasonal
climatological norms, ranging between 2.00 and 2.25 inches for most
of the period.

At the upper levels, the forecast remains on track. An upper-level
trough is positioned over the western Atlantic, while a ridge stays
to the east-southeast of the local area through late Tuesday night
into early Wednesday. Under this scenario, the combination of upper-
level dynamics and persistent low-level moisture convergence along
the frontal boundary will support widespread rainfall and the
possibility of thunderstorms starting Monday.

As the front moves closer, winds will shift from a south-southwest
component to a north-northeasterly flow by Monday night. This
pattern will persist through at least Thursday, at which point winds
will become more easterly as the frontal boundary begins to exit the
region.

The latest model guidance continues to suggest a wet start to the
workweek, with Monday and Tuesday expected to be the most active
days. This activity is driven by the frontal passage and moisture
influx from the Caribbean, combined with daytime heating and local
orographic effects. Currently, there is an elevated flooding
potential across portions of northern and western Puerto Rico on
Monday, shifting to eastern and southern Puerto Rico, Culebra, and
Vieques by Tuesday. For the U.S. Virgin Islands, the risk remains
limited at this time.

Residents and visitors should closely monitor weather conditions
next week, particularly if planning outdoor activities. Stay
informed!

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 306 AM AST Fri Jan 30 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail across all terminals
through the fcst period. However, a weak surface trough will
increase SHRA in and around the USVI terminals early this morning,
and near TJSJ/TJBQ through the afternoon hours. This may result in
tempo MVFR conds across these terminals. ESE winds increasing 8-12
kt with sea breeze variations and higher gusts across the northern
terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 306 AM AST Fri Jan 30 2026

Light to moderate east to southeast winds will prevail through the
waters at least until today, then shifting from the southeast in
response to a surface high pressure shifting eastward over the
central Atlantic. For the upcoming workweek, a larger, long period
northerly swell is expected to build seas up to around 10 feet.
An unsettled weather pattern is forecast across the region for
early next week, increasing the shower and thunderstorm potential
due to an approaching front and a trough.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 306 AM AST Fri Jan 30 2026

Pulses of weak northerly swells will continue to affect the
Atlantic waters through the remainder of the week, with the
strongest pulse expected through this afternoon. A High Rip
Current Risk continues in effect for the beaches from Rincon to
Fajardo, Culebra, and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands through
this afternoon as well. Beachgoers are encouraged to monitor the
forecast for updates and changing conditions. Please remember, rip
currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into
deeper water, where it becomes difficult to return to safety.

Residents and visitors should also note that beach conditions may
further deteriorate early next week due to increasing winds and
the arrival of a stronger northwesterly to northerly long-period
swell, potentially leading to hazardous beach conditions.
Additionally, a change in the weather pattern may bring showers
and thunderstorms from this weekend into early next week,
increasing risks for beachgoers.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for PRZ001-002-005-
     008-010-012.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for VIZ001.

AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSR
LONG TERM....GRS

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion