442
FXCA62 TJSJ 111921
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
321 PM AST Wed Feb 11 2026

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 321 PM AST Wed Feb 11 2026

* High surf will continue across northern exposed coastlines
  through this afternoon, with localized beach erosion possible.
  Life-threatening rip currents will persist through late
  Thursday, a moderate risk will persist late this week into the
  weekend.

* Hazardous seas for small craft operators will continue through
  Thursday afternoon across the Mona Passage and Atlantic waters.
  A gradual improvement expected afterwards.

* A gradual warming trend over the next few days, along with
  increasing rain potential and southeasterly winds Thursday and
  Friday. A limited flood risk is anticipated across the eastern
  half of Puerto Rico and USVI, particularly Thursday.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 321 PM AST Wed Feb 11 2026

Cloudiness spread from the eastern region to central and western
region during the afternoon hours under up to breeze NE flow. This
flow steered passing showers over the eastern region to north-
central PR leaving low accumulations. Official and unofficial
stations report temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s at lower
elevations of the islands. Current satellite derived precipitable
water (PWAT) values indicate 1.25 to 1.55 inches (increasing
southward), at normal to slightly above normal values for this time
of the year. The 12Z sounding detected 1.28 inches of PWAT, a
decrease from yesterday as drier air filtered in under the NE flow.
A broad surface high over the southwestern Atlantic will continue
moving eastward towards the central Atlantic as a frontal low is
moving into the western Atlantic. Under this pattern, steering flow
will continue to veer this afternoon to tomorrow and remain breezy
through tonight. Winds will become easterly tonight, before becoming
southeasterly during the overnight hours into tomorrow, Thursday, and
remaining southeasterly during the rest of the short term period. A
weak mid-level ridge will remain over the region through early
tomorrow, Thursday. Tomorrow into Friday, the same moisture field
that affected the region earlier this week will return as it is
steered back into the region by the southeasterly flow, as a short
wave trough also approaches the region tomorrow night and also
promotes deeper moisture. Moisture and instability during the short
term period will peak tomorrow under this pattern. PWAT values will
increase up to around 1.90 inches, above normal values for this time
of the year. This will support stronger showers and up to a limited
flooding risk over windward sectors during the morning and during
the afternoon over interior to W and NW PR, and downwind of the
local islands and El Yunque. Patchy fog will also develop over
sectors of the interior. Cloud cover and above normal moisture will
persist through late Friday afternoon as drier air moves in behind
the moisture field. 925 temperatures will beginning a warming trend
tomorrow and Friday under the southeasterly flow (reaching above
normal values to 2 standard deviations above normal).

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM AST Wed Feb 11 2026

The inherited forecast remains on track as a weak upper-level trough
approaches the local islands from the northwest. At the surface, a
high-pressure system over the central Atlantic will continue
shifting eastward, promoting light to moderate southeasterly winds
through Sunday. Winds will then veer to an easterly direction as
another surface high builds over the western Atlantic and migrates
toward the central Atlantic through the remainder of the period.

During the upcoming workweek, a mid- to upper-level ridge is
expected to establish across the region, fostering more stable
conditions aloft. The latest precipitable water (PWAT) analysis
supports this pattern, with values remaining within the seasonal
climatological range of 1.20 to 1.55 inches. Under these conditions,
trade-wind moisture will support brief passing morning showers
across portions of eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands,
followed by afternoon convective development over central and
western Puerto Rico.

Given this setup, the flooding threat remains limited, particularly
through the first half of the period. As a result, warm and humid
conditions are expected to persist through the weekend and into
early next week. We urge people to monitor the forecast for any
changes.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 321 PM AST Wed Feb 11 2026

Mainly VFR conditions over the sites with persistent mid to upper
level clouds for most sites. NNE winds will continue veering
tonight, bcmg E late tonight and SE tomorrow. Speeds up to 15-20
knots with higher gusts through 11/23Z, increasing again at
11/13Z up to 15 knots from the SE with higher gusts. VCSH
possible mainly at SJU/IST/ISX increasing in coverage tomorrow
over the terminals; patchy fog over areas of interior PR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 321 PM AST Wed Feb 11 2026

A surface high pressure over the central to eastern Atlantic will
promote gentle to moderate easterly to southeasterly winds through
Saturday. An increase in moisture ahead of a short wave trough will
promote cloudiness and an increase in showers Thursday and early
Friday. The long period northerly swell will start to fade, but
conditions remain are expected to remain hazardous for small craft
operators. As a result, Small Craft Advisories remain in effect
through Thursday afternoon across the Mona Passage and Atlantic
waters. A gradual improvement expected from Thursday afternoon
onward.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 321 PM AST Wed Feb 11 2026

Beach conditions remains hazardous, but the long-period northerly
swell will start to fade tonight into tomorrow. Note that the High
Surf Advisory remains in effect until 6 PM AST this afternoon, and
High Rip Current Statement remain in effect through at least late
Thursday. Life-threatening rip currents are likely in the surf
zones. As the swell continues to gradually diminish, beach conditions
should improve by Friday, however the risk of rip currents will
remain moderate, which means life threatening rip currents are
possible, beachgoers should remain cautious.Conditions may deteriorate
once again next Sunday as the latest model guidance suggests some
pulses of another long-period north-northwesterly swell spreading
across the ATlantic waters.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for PRZ001-002-
     005-008-010-012.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001-002-
     005-008-010-012.

     High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ011-013.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for VIZ001.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for VIZ001.

     High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for VIZ002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST Thursday for AMZ711-712-716-
     741.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Thursday for AMZ723-726-733-
     742-745.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MRR
LONG TERM...ICP
MARINE/BEACH FCST...YZR

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion