088
FXCA62 TJSJ 160731
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
331 AM AST Mon Feb 16 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 326 AM AST Mon Feb 16 2026

* Passing showers will move through in the morning, followed by a
  few afternoon showers over interior and northwestern Puerto Rico
  as remnants of the frontal boundary linger. Limited flooding is
  expected, with brief ponding of water in roads and poorly-
  drained areas.

* Winds shift more from the southeast today and become lighter on
  Tuesday, allowing warmer-than-normal temperatures.

* Seas and beach conditions will worsen from midweek into the end of
  the week as a new northerly swell arrives, creating hazardous
  conditions for small craft and a high risk of rip currents along
  north-facing beaches of the islands.

* In the U.S. Virgin Islands, quick passing showers will continue
  mainly at night and in the morning, with rougher surf and
  dangerous rip currents expected late in the week.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Wednesday)...
Issued at 326 AM AST Mon Feb 16 2026

Remnants of a frontal boundary remains stalled north of the
region this morning with lingering moisture trapped in the low
levels across the local islands. Early morning satellite and radar
imagery show passing trade wind showers affecting windward Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Rainfall has been light
overall, although brief moderate showers will remain possible
through the morning hours.

As the day progresses, the local wind flow will gradually shift more
from the southeast, allowing slightly warmer air to filter in.
Daytime heating and local effects will once again promote isolated
to scattered showers across interior and northwestern Puerto Rico
this afternoon. Available moisture remains limited and mid-levels
are somewhat dry, so activity should be brief. The flood threat
remains limited, with only isolated ponding in poor drainage areas.

Tonight into Tuesday, a nearby col will move north, weakening the
pressure gradient and leading to lighter steering winds.
Consequently, 925 mb wind speeds diminish, and showers will move
more slowly and become more locally driven. Overnight and morning
showers will still affect eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands, while afternoon convection may linger longer across
interior and western Puerto Rico. However, precipitable water
remains near to slightly below normal, and mid-level dryness should
prevent widespread rainfall.

By Wednesday, the col shifts eastward, and Atlantic high pressure
strengthens again, allowing easterly winds to increase once more.
The low-level flow will keep an east-southeast component,
maintaining warmer-than-normal daytime temperatures, especially
across urban and coastal areas. Shower activity returns to a more
typical fast-moving trade wind pattern, with nighttime and morning
showers across windward areas, followed by isolated afternoon
shallow convective activity over interior and western Puerto Rico.

Overall, the pattern will turn more seasonal through midweek:
overnight trade wind showers, localized afternoon convection,
lighter winds Tuesday due to the col, and increasing winds with
warmer conditions by Wednesday.

&&

.Long Term(Thursday through Monday)...
Issued at 326 AM AST Mon Feb 16 2026

No major changes were introduced to the long-term forecast, as
mostly stable conditions are very likely by the latter part of the
week and early next week. A surface high pressure in the western
Atlantic will promote easterly winds through most of the period,
expected to intensify and migrate eastward, strengthening from the
southeast. Based on the deterministic guidance of the GFS and ECMWF,
PWAT values should remain seasonal to below climatological normal
(between 1.2 and 1.4 inches, low chance of 1.5 to 1.6 inches) due to
drier air filtering into the region. Confidence is increasing
between model solutions, as ensemble members show low variability
and are tending to lower moisture content across the CWA. In terms
of instability, the upper-level shortwave should gradually move away
from the region, with a mid-level ridge establishing over the
Bahamas and lingering through most of the period. Based on the
latest model guidance, the mid-level ridge will dominate most of the
weather conditions throughout the period, with slightly warmer-than-
normal 500 mb temperatures (between -5 and -6 degrees Celsius),
leading to a blocking pattern and resulting in stability aloft. A
seasonal weather pattern is expected to prevail, with isolated to
scattered showers moving over windward sections across the islands
during the night into the morning hours. Although the combination of
diurnal heating, local effects, and sea breeze convergence could
trigger afternoon convection, this should remain shallow, with
mainly puddles over the road and locally reduced visibility.
Additionally, strengthening winds should result in fast-moving
showers, lowering the chance of flooding. Hence, no flooding nor
lightning is expected during the long-term forecast.

With a southeasterly wind flow and the presence of a mid-level
ridge, model guidance continues to suggest warmer-than-normal
temperatures. Although theres a low chance of heat indices
exceeding 100 degrees Fahrenheit, maximum temperatures may reach the
low 90s in localized urban and coastal areas across the islands.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 326 AM AST Mon Feb 16 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail at most terminals. However,
passing SHRA embedded in the trade wind flow will continue to affect
mainly TJSJ, TIST and TISX through the morning hours. Aft 16/17Z,
SHRA and isolated VCSH will develop over interior and NW PR,
possibly causing brief operational impacts at TJBQ. Winds will
remain generally ESE at 513 with higher gusts, then returning blo
10 kt aft 23z. The 16/00Z TJSJ sounding indicated ENE winds up to 17
kt blo FL100.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 326 AM AST Mon Feb 16 2026

A surface high pressure is moving from the Western Atlantic toward
the Central Atlantic, which will result in moderate to locally fresh
east to east-southeast winds today. A fading northerly swell will
continue to create hazardous conditions for small craft operators in
the Atlantic offshore waters through at least noon. Winds will turn
gentle to moderate and from the southeast as another frontal
boundary, along with a pre-frontal trough, moves north of the region
by Tuesday. Additionally, another long-period north to northeasterly
swell will affect local marine conditions from Thursday onward,
creating hazardous conditions.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 326 AM AST Mon Feb 16 2026

Beachgoers are encouraged to exercise caution, particularly along
the north-facing beaches from Rincon to Fajardo and throughout
eastern Puerto Rico, including Culebra, as well as St. Thomas, St.
John, and St. Croix, due to the moderate risk of rip currents. The
moderate risk for these beaches will continue through at least late
Tuesday night, when the risk is forecast to become low throughout
the region on Wednesday. However, the arrival of a long-period
northerly to northeasterly swell during the second part of the week
will once again increase the risk to high levels for most of these
locations. For more information, visit: weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM AST early this morning for
     PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012.

VI...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM AST early this morning for
     VIZ001.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until noon AST today for AMZ711.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM, AVIATION, KEY MESSAGES, BEACH FORECAST...CVB
LONG TERM....MNG
MARINE/BEACH...CAM

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion