167
FXCA62 TJSJ 030921
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
521 AM AST Tue Feb 3 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 504 AM AST Tue Feb 3 2026

* Hazardous Marine & Coastal Conditions: A powerful, long-period
  north- northwesterly swell will impact the region today. Coastal
  Flood and High Surf Warnings are in effect for north-facing
  beaches. Breaking waves will reach dangerous heights between 15
  and 20 ft, and a High Risk of Rip Currents persists for most
  exposed coastlines.

* Wind Shift: Winds will gradually veer from the north today to
  the northeast by Wednesday, and eventually east-southeast by
  Thursday. This shift will help pool moisture over the islands
  through midweek.

* Near-to-Below Normal Temperatures: A cooler air mass will
  linger through Thursday. Coastal areas can expect lows in the
  upper 60s to low 70s and highs in the mid-80s. In the mountains,
  lows will be in the mid-50s to low 60s, with highs in the
  mid-70s.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Thursday)...
Issued at 504 AM AST Tue Feb 3 2026

Hazardous coastal conditions were observed overnight across the
Atlantic Coastline. Thus, we upgraded the Coastal Flood and High
Surf Advisories from the northwest to northeast Puerto Rico to
Warnings. Meanwhile, the west PR and the north-facing coasts in
Culebra, St. Thomas, St. John, and adjacent islands remain under the
Advisories. The frontal boundary brought cloudy skies and showery
weather across portions of PR`s northern half and the USVI
overnight. Winds were mainly from the north-northwest at 10 to 20
mph with gusts between 30 and 40 mph. Low temperatures were in the
low 60s or even the upper 50s in the mountains of PR, and in the low
70s along the coastal locations in PR and the USVI.

A frontal boundary moving across the Northeast Caribbean will bring
windy conditions and frequent showers to Puerto Rico and the US
Virgin Islands today. Supported by a prefrontal trough and high
moisture levels (TPW between 1.75 and 2.10 inches), atmospheric
instability will increase the potential for heavy rainfall.
Residents can expect northerly winds and periods of moderate to
locally heavy rain, posing a limited-to-elevated risk of flooding.
However, mid- to upper-level cloud cover may act as a limiting
factor by inhibiting some shower development.

Coastal conditions will remain hazardous due to a long-period north-
northwesterly swell. Consequently, Coastal Flood and High Surf
Warnings are in effect for the north-facing coastlines of PR and the
USVI, where the risk of rip currents remains high.

This wet pattern is expected to persist through Wednesday and into
Thursday as the lingering frontal boundary continues to pool
moisture over the region. Winds will shift from the north today to
the northeast by Wednesday, eventually turning east-southeast by
Thursday. While the flooding risk will peak on Tuesday and
Wednesday, it should begin to diminish by Thursday morning as the
moisture moves away from the islands.

Local temperatures across PR and the USVI are expected to remain
near or below normal through at least Thursday. Residents can
anticipate low temperatures along the coast to range from the upper
60s to the low 70s, while in the mountains and valleys, lows may
drop to the mid-50s or low-60s. On the other hand, maximum
temperatures along the coast are forecast to reach the mid-80s,
while in the mountains and valleys they should be in the mid- to
upper 70s.

&&

.Long Term(Friday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 504 AM AST Tue Feb 3 2026

During the long-term period, variable conditions are expected. A
high-pressure system over the central Atlantic will promote a
southeasterly flow at the start of the period. By Friday,
precipitable water values are forecast to decrease from around 1.9
inches to near 1.3 inches, resulting in lower rain chances, with
moisture becoming more confined to the lower levels. The remainder
of the weekend into early next week will be influenced by the
arrival of another deep polar trough and its associated frontal
boundary, which will likely increase rain chances and elevate the
flood risk once again. At this time, flood risk on Saturday
remains limited to elevated; however, model guidance has been
inconsistent regarding the timing of the next frontal boundary.
Current guidance now indicates the front passing late Friday into
Saturday, increasing moisture values to above normal levels, near
2 inches. Low-level winds are expected to remain very light due to
the presence of a col region. By Saturday night into Sunday,
winds are forecast to slightly increase and shift from the north
to northeast in the wake of the front, if it materializes. Areas
exposed to northerly and northeasterly flow will have the highest
rain chances as showers are advected inland with available
moisture. Early next week, there will be less moisture, but rain
chances remain around 30 to 40 % across windward areas, and local
effects induces showers. Temperature wise, guidance suggest
seasonal to above normal temperatures during the forecast period.
Please continue to monitor forecast updates and remain informed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 504 AM AST Tue Feb 3 2026

SHRA/-SHRA will continue across terminals with brief MVFR
possible. Winds will range mainly from the N to NNW between 10 and
20 kt with gusts around 30 kt or even higher. This weather
pattern will persist throughout the day as the frontal boundary
move across the region. BKN/OVC cigs FL020FL070 expected at
times.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 504 AM AST Tue Feb 3 2026

A frontal boundary across the region will continue to linger
through at least mid week, promoting northerly winds at around 20
to 25 knots, with higher gusts expected. In addition, a large,
long-period northerly to northwesterly swell is creating hazardous
seas ranging from 10 to 14 feet across local waters and passages
through around midweek. These conditions will be hazardous to
small craft, with Small Craft Advisories in effect for all coastal
and offshore waters through at least late Wednesday night.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 504 AM AST Tue Feb 3 2026

A large, long-period northwest to northerly swell will continue
spreading across the Atlantic waters and passages through midweek
and beach conditions will remain hazardous. As a result, Coastal
Flood and High Surf Warnings are in effect for the north-facing
coastlines of Puerto Rico and Coastal Flood and High Surf Advisories
for the northern U.S. Virgin Islands and southwest Puerto Rico. Large
breaking waves of 15 to 20 feet are expected today and also the
High Risk of rip current continues. This will result in life-
threatening conditions, please stay out of the water and continue
to monitor the forecast for updates.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...Coastal Flood Warning until 6 AM AST Wednesday for PRZ001-002-
     005-008-010.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for PRZ001-
     002-005-008-010>012.

     High Surf Warning until 6 AM AST Wednesday for PRZ001-002-005-
     008-010.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for PRZ011-012.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for PRZ011-012.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for PRZ013.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for VIZ001.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for VIZ001.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for VIZ001.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for VIZ002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Thursday for AMZ711-712-716.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight AST Wednesday night for
     AMZ723-726-733-735-741-742-745.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES...CAM
LONG TERM/MARINE/BEACH...YZR

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion