548
FXCA62 TJSJ 300600
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
200 AM AST Mon Mar 30 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 200 AM AST Mon Mar 30 2026

* Breezy to locally windy conditions are ongoing across Puerto
  Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands and will persist, creating
  hazardous conditions across exposed areas and driving overall
  impacts.

* Marine conditions are deteriorating across the local waters due
  to increasing winds, with hazardous conditions for small craft
  already developing. Conditions will worsen further starting
  Monday night as a northerly swell arrives.

* Life-threatening rip current conditions will develop starting
  tonight along north-facing beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S.
  Virgin Islands and continue through midweek.

* Localized flooding is possible across Puerto Rico and the U.S.
  Virgin Islands due to frequent trade wind showers and afternoon
  convection, particularly in urban areas, poorly drained
  locations, interior and western Puerto Rico, and any areas with
  saturated soils.


&&

.Short Term(Today through Wednesday)...
Issued at 200 AM AST Mon Mar 30 2026

Overnight, an increase in trade wind showers was observed moving
inland from the Atlantic waters, with some reaching interior
portions of Puerto Rico due to strong steering winds. These
showers produced isolated rainfall amounts between 0.25 and 0.50
inches. Overnight low temperatures dropped into the mid 50s
across higher elevations and mid 60s across lower elevations,
reflecting slightly cooler-than-normal conditions that are
expected to continue over the next few days. Breezy to locally
windy northeasterly winds will persist across Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands, driven by a strong surface high pressure over
the western Atlantic. This pattern will continue to support
frequent passing showers, especially during the overnight and
early morning hours across windward areas. Aloft, a jet stream and
a weak shortwave trough north of the region may help support
slightly deeper moisture and limited instability starting Tuesday.

Moisture will vary from time to time, with periods of drier and
wetter air moving across the region. By Tuesday, a patch of higher
moisture, possibly linked to remnants of a frontal boundary to
the north, will move across the area, allowing for more active
shower development. Afternoon heating will help showers grow over
land, especially across interior and western Puerto Rico,
following a typical pattern of morning showers in windward areas
and afternoon activity inland.

The main hazards will be localized flooding and breezy to windy
conditions. While showers will move quickly, recent rainfall may
have left soils sensitive, increasing the risk of ponding of water
and minor flooding in urban areas, roads, and small streams. This
risk will be higher in areas that receive frequent trade wind
showers or repeated afternoon activity, particularly across
interior and west to southwestern Puerto Rico. In addition, breezy
to locally strong winds may result in occasional non-thunderstorm
wind impacts, especially across exposed coastal areas and higher
elevations. Lightning risk will remain limited, although a few
thunderstorms are possible, mainly on Tuesday. Overall, impacts
are expected to be localized rather than widespread.


&&

.Long Term(Thursday through Monday)...
Issued at 153 AM AST Mon Mar 30 2026

An induced surface trough northeast of the region along with a high
pressure system well north of the region will maintain a breezy flow
from the northeast, around 15 knots on Thursday. Passing showers
will continue to move along the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto
Rico in the morning, followed by afternoon convection along the
interior and western Puerto Rico. As the trough moves just north of
the region, the winds will shift from the southeast by Friday and
the weekend. Aloft, a short wave trough arrives on Friday, which
usually will be favorable for strong thunderstorm development.
However, it looks like that upper level clouds will move from the
southwest as well. If the day stays cloudy, then it will shut down
the diurnal heating mechanism, preventing heavy rain from
developing. Since this is an evolving scenario, the confidence is
low to medium at this time. Similar conditions will prevail on
Saturday, with the influence of the upper level trough and high
clouds moving from the southwest. By Sunday and Monday, there
could 153be breaks in the cloud layer, which should allow for
more warming and thunderstorms in the afternoon for western Puerto
Rico. For these days, the risk of flooding will be elevated, with
urban and small stream flooding likely.

By the end of the period, temperatures are expected to warm up too,
so highs could climb to the low 90s for most coastal areas in Puerto
Rico and the Virgin Islands.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 200 AM AST Mon Mar 30 2026

Trade wind SHRA will mv acrs most terminals thru 30/1314Z,
bringing brief MVFR conds, mainly at TJSJ/TIST, while VCSH at
TISX/TJPS. Aft 30/17Z, SHRA/isol TSRA will dvlp over land,
affecting SW PR (TJPS) with brief MVFR/IFR conds. Aft 30/22Z, SHRA
redevelop ovr windward terminals. NE winds 812 kt with occnl
gusts at USVI terminals, incr after sunrise to 1620 kt with
gusts up to 2630 kt, higher near SHRA/TSRA, causing ocnl turb and
brief ops impacts.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 200 AM AST Mon Mar 30 2026

A surface trough north of the region will maintain moderate to
locally fresh northeasterly winds across the local waters today,
promoting choppy seas. An approaching frontal boundary from the
western Atlantic will interact with available moisture, leading to
increasing shower activity, particularly from late Monday into
Tuesday. A long-period northerly swell combined with strengthening
winds will result in deteriorating marine conditions beginning late
Monday night and continuing through much of the Spring Break week.
Hazardous seas are expected, with conditions becoming dangerous for
small craft operators.


&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 200 AM AST Mon Mar 30 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents is expected along north-facing
beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands today, while a
low risk will persist along south-facing beaches.

Conditions are expected to worsen from this evening through at least
Friday due to the arrival of a long-period northerly swell combined
with breezy to windy trade winds. This combination is likely to
create life-threatening rip currents and dangerous high-surf
conditions along the north-facing exposed coastlines.

Beachgoers should exercise caution and remain aware of changing
marine conditions. Always swim near a lifeguard and follow local
safety guidance.


&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk from this evening through Friday evening
     for PRZ001-002-005-008-010.

     High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Friday
     evening for PRZ012.

VI...High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Friday
     evening for VIZ001.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to midnight AST
     Friday night for AMZ711-712.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to midnight AST Friday
     night for AMZ716-723-741.

&&

$$

.SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ICP
.LONG TERM/MARINE...ERG/YZR

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion