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Hurricane Season runs from June 1-November 30
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Weather Summary for Puerto Rico
652 FXCA62 TJSJ 211812 AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 212 PM AST Thu May 21 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 208 PM AST Thu May 21 2026 * Morning showers across windward areas of PR and the USVI will be followed by afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms, particularly across western PR. * Breezy to locally windy conditions will continue across the local islands over the next several days. Secure loose objects. * Moderate to locally strong winds will result in choppy to rough seas at times and a moderate rip current risk across most local beaches. * Warm temperatures will persist each day, with heat indices remaining in the upper 90s to low 100s. This will primarily affect heat-sensitive individuals, especially those outdoors without adequate cooling or hydration. && .Short Term(This evening through Saturday)... Issued at 208 PM AST Thu May 21 2026 Most of the morning featured partly cloudy skies with quick-moving showers across windward areas of Puerto Rico. Breezy to windy conditions were observed at local weather stations, with easterly to southeasterly winds of 10 to 20 mph and gusts reaching the upper 20s to lower 30s mph. Daytime highs ranged from the upper 80s to lower 90s across urban and coastal areas and from the upper 70s to lower 80s across higher elevations. Heat indices reached the mid 90s to around 100 to 102 degrees F. Current weather conditions across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands are being influenced by a weakening mid to upper-level trough, while a weak mid-level ridge will start building over the region. At the surface, a strengthening high-pressure over the central Atlantic is tightening the local pressure gradient, promoting moderate to fresh, and at times locally strong, east to southeasterly winds. This pattern is expected to persist through the short-term period, unsecured items could blow around. In terms of moisture, drier air has temporarily filtered into the region today, lowering precipitable water (PWAT) values to around 1.3 to 1.4 inches. Supporting this trend, the 12Z sounding measured a PWAT value of 1.44 inches, which is below normal for this time of year. However, moisture levels are expected to gradually increase through the remainder of the short term period, generally fluctuating between 1.5 and 1.8 inches, near seasonal averages. This afternoon, daytime heating and local effects will support isolated to scattered showers across northwestern Puerto Rico. A similar pattern is expected Friday and Saturday, although slightly higher moisture levels may lead to a modest increase in morning showers and somewhat stronger afternoon convection. Even so, breezy conditions should keep showers moving quickly, limiting the potential for significant flooding. Overall, this pattern remains typical for the season, with morning trade wind showers followed by afternoon convection over western Puerto Rico. Warm temperatures will also persist, particularly across coastal and urban areas. Based on climatology and guidance for 925 mb temperatures, values should remain near seasonal normals for late May. Expect daytime highs to continue in the upper 80s to low 90s across lower elevations of Puerto Rico and the USVI, while higher elevations remain in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Heat indices could rise into the upper 90s to low 100s degrees F. && .Long Term(Sunday through next Wednesday)... Issued at 208 PM AST Thu May 21 2026 Small changes were introduced to the long-term forecast, as variable conditions may persist early next week, becoming wetter by the end of the period. The wind pattern will continue from the E-ESE as a surface high pressure building in the western Atlantic, maintaining breezy to windy conditions from Sunday through Tuesday, peaking on Monday. However, the high pressure may migrate eastward and linger over the Central Atlantic, weakening and veering winds from the SE Tuesday onward. Moisture content should remain seasonal, with PWAT values ranging between 1.5 and 1.75 inches on Sunday and Monday, but it should gradually increase as abundant moisture pools into the region. According to the latest model guidance, PWAT values could increase up to 2.0 inches, near the climatological normal, with low and mid-level moisture increasing well above normal and sounding models showing skinny profiles. Due to the proximity of the upper- level trough, mid-level temperatures should briefly cool both Sunday and Monday (around -8 degrees Celsius), gradually warming as a mid- level ridge north of the CWA weakens the trough. Although shower activity is expected each day of the forecast, for Sunday and Monday, fast-moving showers are expected over half of eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, with afternoon convection over interior and western Puerto Rico. Additionally, streamers should develop by midday, moving over portions of Vieques, Culebra, and eastern Puerto Rico, including the San Juan Metropolitan Area. Rainfall accumulations could result in ponding of water over roadways and poorly drained areas, along with minor flooding, with a limited flooding threat. Besides flooding, these areas can experience gusty winds and lightning. As winds shift and moisture content increases, the flood threat may remain limited, but an elevated threat (including urban and small stream flooding) over localized areas cannot be ruled out. With abundant moisture and seasonal temperatures across the region, heat indices over localized areas (particularly urban and coastal) of the islands may reach and exceed 100 degrees Fahrenheit. Nevertheless, the heat will remain limited, likely to impact those sensitive to heat. Stay hydrated and avoid long sun exposure. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 208 PM AST Thu May 21 2026 VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites during the period. Breezy conditions will persist, with winds up to 18 knots and gusts up to 25 knots from the E. Winds will diminish at 21/23Z, becoming from the E up to 10 knots. Brief MVFR conditions are possible across TJBQ & TJSJ due to localized SHRA to TS reducing VIS and lowering ceilings, affecting FL020 to FL050. Across mountains, lower ceilings are forecast as well due to SHRA. VCSH is expected along the east side from 21/23Z to 22/06Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 208 PM AST Thu May 21 2026 A broad surface high pressure over the Central Atlantic, combined with a long stationary frontal boundary stall across the central Atlantic, will continue to result in a pressure gradient tight, increasing the surface winds, and steadying moderate to locally fresh winds from the east. This will result in some wind-driven seas across the offshore Atlantic waters, where a Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 6 PM AST this evening. Mariners are urged to remain aware of the marine conditions in that area. For the rest of the period, windy conditions will persist, resulting in similar conditions across the local exposed areas and some very exposed coastal areas. An increase in moisture and cloudiness by the upcoming weekend might enhance shower activity along the marine areas, resulting in thunderstorm activity that could result in localized hazardous marine conditions. Please stay aware of weather conditions before heading to sea. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 208 PM AST Thu May 21 2026 The forecast remains on track. A moderate risk of rip currents will continue across most local beaches through the next several days due to persistent breezy conditions and ongoing wind-driven seas. The highest risk will persist along north- and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Beachgoers should exercise caution, as life-threatening rip currents remain possible. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for AMZ711. && $$ SHORT TERM, KEY MESSAGES...YZR LONG TERM....MNG AVIATION, MARINE & BEACH FORECAST...LIS |
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