011
FXCA62 TJSJ 211756
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
156 PM AST Wed Jan 21 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 116 PM AST Wed Jan 21 2026

* Choppy to rough seas and life-threatening rip currents will result
  in hazardous conditions for small craft and beachgoers. Small
  Craft Advisories and High Rip Current Statements will remain in
  effect through at least Thursday afternoon.

* Breezy to windy conditions will continue tonight and tomorrow,
  which could cause outdoor items to be blown around or damaged.

* A surface trough moving westward across the region from early
  tomorrow into Friday will gradually deteriorate weather
  conditions, increasing the potential for showers and isolated
  thunderstorms.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 116 PM AST Wed Jan 21 2026

Breezy condition prevailed across the islands today, with gusts up
to 35 mph reported between eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands. Quick passing showers left mostly minor rainfall accumulations
over land areas through the morning hours, while cloudiness and
light showers were developing early in the afternoon over southwestern
PR. Maximum temperatures were in the mid-80s in general across
the lower elevations.

Easterly winds between 15 and 25 mph with stronger gusts will
continue during the next few days as a broad surface high pressure
continues to build over the central Atlantic. An upper-level
trough east of the Leeward Islands will induce a surface trough
that will cross the local area on Thursday. This trough will bring
a surge in moisture content through the end of the workweek,
therefore, expect showers to increase in frequency and intensity
from tonight onward. Due to the fast-moving nature of these
showers, widespread flooding is not expected, however, expect
ponding of water along roads and other poor drainage areas.
Although the 500 mb temperatures are expected to drop around -7C,
the position of the upper-level trough should not favor
thunderstorm development, however, brief isolated thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out over portions of the local waters late in the
period. Seasonal temperatures will continue under the breezy
winds and occasional trade wind showers.

&&

.Long Term(Saturday through next Wednesday)...
Issued at 508 AM AST Wed Jan 21 2026

Increased moisture and instability will carry from the short term
period into Saturday, as the moisture field from the disturbance
continues over the region promoting above seasonal precipitable
water (PWAT) values (1.50 to near 2 inches). Saturday looks to be
the wettest day in the long term period, with advective showers
steered by easterly flow and convective afternoon showers over
interior to western PR. Improved weather conditions are forecast
from late Saturday through Sunday as the atmospheric disturbance
and moisture field moves westward and out of the region and drier
air advects into the area. Patches of drier and moist air will
then promote seasonal (

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion