153
FXCA62 TJSJ 241814
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
214 PM AST Tue Feb 24 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 153 PM AST Tue Feb 24 2026

* Hazardous seas, life-threatening rip currents and high surf
  conditions are expected from this evening through at least
  Friday along northern beaches of the islands. Continue to
  monitor the forecast in the coming days and follow flag
  warnings.

* Moderate to heavy showers expected to continue for the rest of
  the afternoon, with an elevated flooding threat over the
  mountain ranges of Puerto Rico.

* Across the USVI, weather conditions will gradually improve
  tonight, with a drying trend on Wednesday.

* Minor concentrations of Saharan dust are expected to filter late
  tonight.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 153 PM AST Tue Feb 24 2026

Weather conditions were relatively calm during the morning hours,
with a few showers developing over the regional waters that remained
offshore. Overall, mostly clear to partly cloudy skies prevailed.
For the rest of the day, the forecast remains on track. GOES-19
imagery shows an area of abundant tropical moisture over the
Caribbean waters being advected northward by southerly winds as a
pre-frontal trough approaches from the northwest.

Most of the activity is expected through the rest of the afternoon
as increased moisture and an unsettled weather pattern combine with
sea breeze convergence and surface heating, with the latter fueling
convection across the area. Therefore, expect shower and
thunderstorm activity to persist through the evening hours.

Additionally, steering winds are light due to the presence of a col
northwest of the area, which will move eastward through tonight. The
24/12Z TJSJ sounding indicates a surface to 3 km mean wind of 5
knots. These light steering winds will result in slow-moving showers
and thunderstorms, increasing rainfall accumulation. They will also
lead to erratic storm movements as showers and thunderstorms drift
toward the coast and redevelop along outflow boundaries.

Therefore, expect a limited to elevated flood threat across Puerto
Rico, with the highest risk over interior areas and urban locations
where excessive runoff may exacerbate flooding. However, activity
should gradually diminish overnight with the loss of daytime
heating. Light steering flow early in the evening may still allow
for brief ponding of water in areas that receive persistent showers,
but the overall flooding threat is expected to decrease after sunset.

By Wednesday, a drier air mass filtering in will begin to overspread
the region. Although precipitable water values will remain near
climatological levels, mid-level drying and traces of Saharan dust
will promote more stable conditions, particularly during the morning
hours. By the afternoon, convection should be limited to isolated to
scattered showers, favoring western Puerto Rico due to local effects
and daytime heating. Any rainfall accumulations are expected to be
localized and generally light, resulting in a reduced flood threat
compared to today.

Additionally, surface high pressure over the central Atlantic will
strengthen, tightening the pressure gradient and promoting moderate
to locally fresh easterly winds. By Thursday, these stronger trades
will result in faster-moving showers embedded within the flow,
mainly affecting windward coastal areas during the overnight and
morning hours. Afternoon convection across the interior and western
sections of Puerto Rico will remain possible but should be less
widespread due to the drier mid-level air. Overall, flooding
concerns should remain limited given the progressive nature of the
showers and decreasing moisture content, with precipitable water
values trending near to below climatological normals.

Temperatures will remain seasonable through the period.

&&

.Long Term(Friday through next Monday)...
Issued at 153 PM AST Tue Feb 24 2026

A broad surface high pressure system across the Central Atlantic
will be the dominant weather feature for most of the period across
the forecast area. This system will promote moderate to locally
fresh easterly winds on Friday. Under this wind pattern, patches of
shallow moisture with precipitable water values from 1.4 to 1.7
inches will move across the islands, enhancing cloudiness and
supporting a showery pattern, especially across the U.S. Virgin
Islands and eastern Puerto Rico during the morning hours. On
Saturday, a slight variation in the wind pattern is forecast, with
winds veering as the surface high interacts with an induced pre-
frontal trough over the western Atlantic and its associated
frontal boundary. This interaction will maintain moderate
southeasterly winds from Saturday through Monday. Therefore, the
islands can expect persistent patches of shallow but sufficient
moisture to sustain a variable and showery weather pattern during
this period. Morning showers are expected across portions of the
U.S. Virgin Islands, followed by afternoon convection,
particularly across the northwestern quadrant of Puerto Rico and
the San Juan metropolitan area, aided by showers developing near
the El Yunque region in streamers. Although showers may be locally
significant, especially in the afternoon, widespread flooding is
not anticipated. Minor flooding may occur in low-lying and urban
areas. Breezy conditions are also expected, as suggested by 925
mb winds ranging between 18 and 20 knots.

By Tuesday, an increase in surface moisture is forecast as a frontal
boundary approaches north of the islands, with associated cloudiness
and moisture slightly above the climatological normals reaching the
northern sections of Puerto Rico. The approach of this system will
promote a more pronounced easterly wind pattern across the region.
As a result, showers are expected across eastern Puerto Rico and
along the north and northeast coasts. Residents and visitors are
urged to stay tuned for further updates.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 153 PM AST Tue Feb 24 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected across all terminals through the
period. However, SHRA/VCTS will continue across portions of PR this
afternoon, with VCTS at TJPS/TJBQ with brief MVFR/IFR possible in
heavier TSRA, mainly at TJBQ. Mtn obscurations possible this
afternoon due to SHRA/TSRA. Activity will diminish aft 24/23Z,
though VCSH may persist at times. ESE winds 10-12 kt with higher
gusts through the afternoon, becoming lighter and variable
overnight. Sea breeze variations expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 153 PM AST Tue Feb 24 2026

The proximity of a pre-frontal trough associated with a frontal
boundary north of the Hispaniola will promote light and variable
winds for the rest of the day. Shower activity and isolated
thunderstorms will continue this afternoon through tonight, small
craft should exercise caution. A long-period north-northwesterly
swell is expected to spread across the Atlantic waters and passages
from late tonight into Wednesday morning, building seas between 6
and 9 feet. Hazardous seas are expected to linger through Friday,
and Small Craft Advisories are in effect. Moderate to fresh trades
will return during the second part of the workweek, as surface high
pressure builds over the Central Atlantic.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 153 PM AST Tue Feb 24 2026

NDBC buoys are currently reporting an increase in wave height and
period, as a long-period north-northwesterly swell spreads across
Atlantic waters. Based on these observations and the latest model
guidance, the forecast has been adjusted, as the swell is expected
to arrive later this evening and spread across the local Atlantic
waters and passages through at least Friday. A Rip Current
Statement is in effect from 6 PM AST today, as life- threatening
rip currents are expected along northern exposed beaches of Puerto
Rico, including Culebra, and St. Thomas and St. John in the U.S.
Virgin Islands. Theres a high chance of High Surf Conditions
tomorrow, Wednesday, leading to large breaking waves and minor
beach erosion, hazardous for beachgoers. Beach conditions will
start to improve by the weekend as the swell gradually subsides.

For safety, always check local conditions before swimming.
Beachgoers and inexperienced surfers are urged to avoid beaches
exposed to the northerly swell. Remember to swim near a lifeguard,
never swim alone, and, if caught in a rip current, remain calm, do
not exhaust yourself, and stay afloat while waiting for help.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk from 6 PM AST this evening through
     Thursday afternoon for PRZ001-002-005-008-010.

     High Surf Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to 6 PM AST Thursday for
     PRZ001-002-005-008-010.

VI...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to noon AST Friday for
     AMZ711-712-716-723-741-742.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CVB
LONG TERM...LIS
MARINE/BEACH...MNG/YZR

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion