255
FXCA62 TJSJ 230841
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
441 AM AST Sun Nov 23 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 441 AM AST Sun Nov 23 2025

* Pleasant temperatures and a moderate breeze will make conditions
  comfortable overall, however, isolated to scattered afternoon
  showers are expected to develop mainly over southwest Puerto
  Rico without flooding concerns.

* Across the US Virgin Island, isolated showers during the nights
  and mornings, then mostly pleasant conditions.

* A breezier pattern is expected by midweek, which will enhance
  occasional trade-wind showers and bring a moderate to high chance
  of deteriorating marine and coastal conditions.

* Low risk of rip currents today and Monday, increasing to moderate
  Tuesday onward due to increasing winds and a northeasterly swell.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Tuesday)...
Issued at 441 AM AST Sun Nov 23 2025

A few showers lingered over southwestern Puerto Rico during the
early evening, leaving around a quarter of an inch in localized
spots. Later in the night, brief showers moved in from the
surrounding waters and focused mainly over northern Puerto Rico,
with totals generally below a quarter of an inch. Outside of these
short-lived showers, conditions were mostly quiet and skies
remained mostly clear. Temperatures were cool once again, with
coastal and urban areas running a bit warmer than last night and
the higher elevations dipping into the low 60s and upper 50s.
Winds over land stayed light and variable throughout the night.

Moist and dry patches will continue to move across the region today
within the ongoing east-northeast trade wind pattern, producing
rapid PWAT fluctuations. Pleasant temperatures and a moderate breeze
will make conditions comfortable overall. Strong mid-level ridging
and dry air aloft will maintain a stable environment, with most
moisture confined to the lower levels, so any morning showers will
be short-lived. During the afternoon, isolated to scattered showers
may develop where conditions become favorable, mainly over southwest
Puerto Rico. Overall, today stands out as one of the first genuinely
low-hazard weather days in quite some time, with no significant
impacts anticipated.

Tonight through Tuesday night, the patchy pattern will continue,
with more frequent PWAT fluctuations as east-northeast winds
strengthen from moderate to fresh levels by Monday and become
stronger by Tuesday. This transition will occur as a high pressure
builds over the western Atlantic and tightens the local pressure
gradient, bringing a limited risk for stronger non-thunderstorm wind
gusts Monday into Tuesday, especially across exposed coastal areas
and higher elevations. Even as moisture pockets move through, the
overall atmosphere will remain on the dry side. A corridor of
stronger upper-level winds will develop over the area while a weak
disturbance approaches aloft, allowing for a slight increase in
instability. If favorable conditions align, brief heavy showers or
an isolated thunderstorm could develop, mainly Tuesday afternoon
across southwestern Puerto Rico. Otherwise, the pattern favors quick
overnight and early-morning showers, followed by very localized
isolated to scattered afternoon showers each day where lingering
moisture, daytime heating, and local effects come together. Pleasant
temperatures will continue through the period.

&&

.Long Term(Wednesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 441 AM AST Sun Nov 23 2025

The long-term period will feature patches of moisture embedded
within the trade winds, bringing a moderate chance of occasional
showery weather and breezy conditions. By midweek, a surface high-
pressure system will be located over the central Atlantic. Aloft,
an upper-level trough will shift eastward, allowing ridging to
build into the region. PWAT guidance indicates values remaining
within the normal to below-normal range through the period, based
on November climatology.

Windward areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands can
expect pleasant a low to moderate chance of passing showers
throughout the week. There will also be a slight to moderate
chance of afternoon showers each day across the interior and
western portions of Puerto Rico.

By the weekend, another high-pressure system building over the
western Atlantic will further tighten the pressure gradient,
resulting in even breezier conditions. A gradual increase in PWAT
values may lead to higher rain chances, although flooding impacts
are not anticipated.

Model guidance suggests that 925-mb temperatures will remain in
the normal to below-normal range for this time of year, supporting
a continued transition toward more pleasant temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 441 AM AST Sun Nov 23 2025

Prevailing VFR thru the prd with only brief VCSH at TJSJ thru
23/13Z and psbl nr TJPS 23/1720Z. MVFR chances are very low and
impacts unlikely. Sfc winds LGT/VRB, bcmg NE 1014 kt aft 23/14Z,
then rtn LGT/VRB aft sunset. Steering flow fm the NE.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 441 AM AST Sun Nov 23 2025

High pressure over the western Atlantic, along with a surface
trough across the central Atlantic, will maintain gentle to
moderate east to northeast winds today. Another high-pressure
system will then build over the western Atlantic and move into the
central Atlantic from early week through Thursday. This will
tighten the pressure gradient once again, supporting moderate to
fresh trade winds and choppy seas from Tuesday onward. As a
result, expect confused seas due to the combination of locally
choppy conditions and a long-period northeasterly swell arriving
between Tuesday and Wednesday. Small craft operators will likely
need to exercise caution during that period.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 441 AM AST Sun Nov 23 2025

Today, there is a low risk of rip currents along all local beaches
of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Keep in mind that
even with a low risk, life- threatening rip currents can still
occur near groins, jetties, reefs, and piers. These conditions are
expected to prevail through early Tuesday. However, beginning
Tuesday evening, the risk is anticipated to rise to moderate due
to increasing winds and confused seas. For location-specific
information, visit weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ICP
LONG TERM/MARINE/BEACH...YZR

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion